Powe or Davis?

[crownsy]

Because the stat is not representing what is going on the floor, and that's pretty much what Bill is saying. Regardless of Powe being a better rebounder than Davis, that Powe outrebounds PF's and Davis doesn't outrebound C's (according to the stat) doesn't mean that Powe is a better rebounder.

do you not see how bill's response addressed this and made a good case for it being irrelevant?

I get that you think you both proved, in diffrent ways, that the stat isn't relevant as a be all, end all stat on a players rebounding, but this pretty much dismisses this objection you have, since its a matchup based handicap you want to give to davis.

[Chris]

I think Leon Powe is already a very good backup power forward and I think he's got a fairly good shot at becoming a starter in this league. Right now, more than anything else, he just needs an opportunity to play more minutes and show how good his game is.

Powe has gotten more minutes this year than he ever has in the past, and all he has shown is that he is less effective in extended minutes, because teams start making adjustments to him.  Powe has a LONG way to go to be any more than an energy guy off the bench.  The whole "needs an opportunity to play more minutes" excuse is always overdone.  If he can't take advantage of the minutes he has  (which are significant), in a consistent and efficient way, then why should he be given more minutes?

Powe is an incredibly hard worker, and I think has a bright future in this league, but this notion that he is being held back is absolutely rediculous.  He has some major holes in his game, that until he fills, he will be more and more of a liability the more he is on the floor, because that gives other teams more opportunities to take advantage of it.

And I will say the exact same thing about Davis.  They both are bench players right now for a reason.  And honestly, they both should only be 9th or 10th men.

I respect you a great deal Chris, but you are not taking in factors that are effective both of these players.

When you play a restricted role as both Davis and Powe do, you aren't allowed to explore facets of your game that other players with larger roles are.

Also, playing minutes with less talented players, as both Powe and Davis have had to with the 2nd unit, limits some of the things each can do.

I think Powe's 7pts/4rbs in 14 minutes of play is pretty good - especially considering he gets 4 shots a game and may touch the ball on the block about 6-7 times in 3-4 rotation stints on the court - he's not encouraged to shoot the ball, even though he can, and he doesn't get very many easy baskets because nobody on his unit can dribble penetrate or run the pick-and-roll effectively - add to it the fact that Davis' faceup game doesn't force defenders to commit to him and you have a serious limitation that doesn't have to do with Powe himself.

Now Powe bears some responsibility as well - this isn't a blame game - he holds the ball too long on the block, which is a DIRECT effect of Doc and the staff telling him to work on his reads. He is dealing with more double-teams than he ever has, which is why the team stopped feeding him the rock on the 2nd unit after the first 3 weeks of the season - he was getting doubled on a majority of his posessions at that point.

You're seeing a player who is getting very few easy baskets because of lineups, has no rhythm because of limited touches, and is restricted by his role designation.

I don't think teams have "figured out" anything about Powe. He's being defended the same way he was last year. The difference is his usage. no pick-and-roll, no basket cuts, out-of-rhythm post game with very limited touches.

As Powe continues to work, he'll incorporate his face-up and as his role increases he will mix his post moves up more frequently. --- we've already seen more of his arsenal than he's show, its just a matter of being able to test it out with more regularity - which is not his role right now with this team...

Doc is already mixing up the rotation and Powe has seen an increase in productivity as he's gotten more minutes with Rondo and KG...this trend will continue...

I absolutely disagree that Powe is not being asked to shoot.  In fact, he has been the focal point of the offense for the second unit for much of the season.  They are usually doing everything they can to try to force the ball into him. 

Of course I will agree that he has been a victim of playing with bad players, since even though they try to get the ball into them, when your PG is Eddie House, who has never created space to make an entry pass in his life, it makes it pretty difficult. 

I also think he really needs to start making some adjustments now that other teams have adjusted to him.  He made a living last year, and early this year by creating contact, and getting to the line.  Lately though, it seems that teams have gotten a book on him, and adjusted.  Defenders have started backing away, which has thrown him off.  He looks like he is still expecting the contact, but when it doesn't come, his shot goes off target.  He needs to start trying to concentrate more on finishing, rather than just trying to draw the fouls.

And perhaps I overstated my case, saying that Powe is not a starter in this league.  There are absolutely some teams where he could start on right now (Memphis jumps out at me, as does Golden State).  What I meant was that he was a ways away from being an impact starter on a good team. 

IMO, he still needs to become a much better team defender, passer, and mid-range shooter (if he has that shot, he needs to get confidence in it then), before he will be able to take on a bigger role on a very good team. 


Now, if anyone can make those improvements, it is him...but it is still premature to be annointing him as any more than a role-player.

When it comes down to it, I am just trying to slow down some of the hopes that Powe is going to be taking over for Garnett any day soon. 

[crownsy]

I think Leon Powe is already a very good backup power forward and I think he's got a fairly good shot at becoming a starter in this league. Right now, more than anything else, he just needs an opportunity to play more minutes and show how good his game is.

Powe has gotten more minutes this year than he ever has in the past, and all he has shown is that he is less effective in extended minutes, because teams start making adjustments to him.  Powe has a LONG way to go to be any more than an energy guy off the bench.  The whole "needs an opportunity to play more minutes" excuse is always overdone.  If he can't take advantage of the minutes he has  (which are significant), in a consistent and efficient way, then why should he be given more minutes?

Powe is an incredibly hard worker, and I think has a bright future in this league, but this notion that he is being held back is absolutely rediculous.  He has some major holes in his game, that until he fills, he will be more and more of a liability the more he is on the floor, because that gives other teams more opportunities to take advantage of it.

And I will say the exact same thing about Davis.  They both are bench players right now for a reason.  And honestly, they both should only be 9th or 10th men.

I respect you a great deal Chris, but you are not taking in factors that are effective both of these players.

When you play a restricted role as both Davis and Powe do, you aren't allowed to explore facets of your game that other players with larger roles are.

Also, playing minutes with less talented players, as both Powe and Davis have had to with the 2nd unit, limits some of the things each can do.

I think Powe's 7pts/4rbs in 14 minutes of play is pretty good - especially considering he gets 4 shots a game and may touch the ball on the block about 6-7 times in 3-4 rotation stints on the court - he's not encouraged to shoot the ball, even though he can, and he doesn't get very many easy baskets because nobody on his unit can dribble penetrate or run the pick-and-roll effectively - add to it the fact that Davis' faceup game doesn't force defenders to commit to him and you have a serious limitation that doesn't have to do with Powe himself.

Now Powe bears some responsibility as well - this isn't a blame game - he holds the ball too long on the block, which is a DIRECT effect of Doc and the staff telling him to work on his reads. He is dealing with more double-teams than he ever has, which is why the team stopped feeding him the rock on the 2nd unit after the first 3 weeks of the season - he was getting doubled on a majority of his posessions at that point.

You're seeing a player who is getting very few easy baskets because of lineups, has no rhythm because of limited touches, and is restricted by his role designation.

I don't think teams have "figured out" anything about Powe. He's being defended the same way he was last year. The difference is his usage. no pick-and-roll, no basket cuts, out-of-rhythm post game with very limited touches.

As Powe continues to work, he'll incorporate his face-up and as his role increases he will mix his post moves up more frequently. --- we've already seen more of his arsenal than he's show, its just a matter of being able to test it out with more regularity - which is not his role right now with this team...

Doc is already mixing up the rotation and Powe has seen an increase in productivity as he's gotten more minutes with Rondo and KG...this trend will continue...

When it comes down to it, I am just trying to slow down some of the hopes that Powe is going to be taking over for Garnett any day soon. 

I don't really think even the most avid leon powe booster sees him as a long term replacemnt for KG. They see him as a very good bench player.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Because the stat is not representing what is going on the floor, and that's pretty much what Bill is saying. Regardless of Powe being a better rebounder than Davis, that Powe outrebounds PF's and Davis doesn't outrebound C's (according to the stat) doesn't mean that Powe is a better rebounder.

do you not see how bill's response addressed this and made a good case for it being irrelevant?

I get that you think you both proved, in diffrent ways, that the stat isn't relevant as a be all, end all stat on a players rebounding, but this pretty much dismisses this objection you have, since its a matchup based handicap you want to give to davis.

I really don't see how Bill addressed it, help me out if you can. As far as I'm concerned you're comparing apples to oranges when using this stat against players in different positions.  You can draw conclusions on their effectiveness as rebounders for their position, but that's really the extent of it in this case. I don't want to give anyone a handicap, but consideration for the circumstances and the type of information that the stat is actually giving. It's like comparing the ammount of turnovers a PG has against someone who rarely touches the ball.

But whatever, it won't change much in this argument since we all can agree that Powe is a better rebounder. I still think that the stat is crap and misrepresents what is going on the floor and the situation no matter how it evens out during the course of the season. Because if you're rebounding against everyone on the floor, a match-up oriented stat is pretty useless... it simply gives you perspective of how a player compares to others in that position, and that's about it.

It suggests he's a better rebounder relative to his opponents than Foster is.

To me it simply said Rondo outrebounds other PG's who are on the floor, while Foster doesn't outrebound other centers. That's about it. And what one does doesn't affect my opinion on the other because it's irrelevant.

[cordobes]

Rebounding rate is the best measurement to the rebounding quality of a player. Although not perfect as there are different kinds of rebounders, doesn't account for a good job boxing out and it can be skewed by coaching decisions (e.g. A crashes the glass, B comes back to defend the transition as soon as someone is releasing a shot).

Rebounding per minutes, paired with minutes per game, is a good complementary metric.

Counterpart production is always very flawed. When it comes to rebounding, it's exponentially flawed, as there are hardly "rebounding matchups" in a basketball game. Chart one for a few minutes and you'll see that.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Rebounding rate is the best measurement to the rebounding quality of a player. Although not perfect as there are different kinds of rebounders, doesn't account for a good job boxing out and it can be skewed by coaching decisions (e.g. A crashes the glass, B comes back to defend the transition as soon as someone is releasing a shot).

Rebounding per minutes, paired with minutes per game, is a good complementary metric.

Counterpart production is always very flawed. When it comes to rebounding, it's exponentially flawed, as there are hardly "rebounding matchups" in a basketball game. Chart one for a few minutes and you'll see that.

Yeah, what he said. I don't know why but there's a sudden fascination for +/- in whatever form it's presented around here.

[Roy Hobbs]

I think this is fairly moot since everybody seems to agree that Powe is the better rebounder.  However, building off of what Bill said:

Assumption:  BBD and Powe play roughly equal minutes, and spend the majority of their minutes playing together (both are true)

If Powe grabs + 2.2 rebounds as compared to the opposing power forward, and BBD grabs -1.6 rebounds as compared to the opposing center, that means the combo is roughly getting rebounded by 0.6 rebounds per 48 minutes against opposing big men.  When you compare their own rebounding numbers (11.75/48 for Powe, 8.875/48 for BBD) you see who is most likely responsible for this disparity.

As Bill was suggesting, BBD and Powe are basically rebounding against the same players.  The fact that Powe has a significantly better rebound rate suggests that he is the better rebounder.  BBD is the only one of the four front court big men who see regular minutes that has a negative rebound differential, which is one more indicator that he's of the same caliber in terms of rebounding. 

[nickagneta]

Powe has better rebounding statistics because he has a better body and better physical condition than does Big Baby for rebounding. It really is that simple. He has longer arms and jumps higher. I think both box out fairly well but I think Baby has better fundamentals in that regard. And I think they both position themselves very well, unlike POB who often gets pushed under the basket or too far out to get a rebound.

Also, I've noticed the way the coaches have Baby boxing out is not conducive for him to get rebounds but is in allowing his team mates to get them. Watch carefully when Baby plays big men, especially during foul shots. When it comes time to keep his man off the board Baby literally grabs him with two hands and pushes him away from the offensive rebound. He is the only Celtic I see doing this.

[Chris]

I think this is fairly moot since everybody seems to agree that Powe is the better rebounder.  However, building off of what Bill said:

Assumption:  BBD and Powe play roughly equal minutes, and spend the majority of their minutes playing together (both are true)

If Powe grabs + 2.2 rebounds as compared to the opposing power forward, and BBD grabs -1.6 rebounds as compared to the opposing center, that means the combo is roughly getting rebounded by 0.6 rebounds per 48 minutes against opposing big men.  When you compare their own rebounding numbers (11.75/48 for Powe, 8.875/48 for BBD) you see who is most likely responsible for this disparity.

As Bill was suggesting, BBD and Powe are basically rebounding against the same players.  The fact that Powe has a significantly better rebound rate suggests that he is the better rebounder.  BBD is the only one of the four front court big men who see regular minutes that has a negative rebound differential, which is one more indicator that he's of the same caliber in terms of rebounding. 

Well, just to throw a wrench into this, I don't think you can discount the fact that Davis actually blitzes the perimeter, like he is supposed to, while Powe is often just hanging around the basket, instead of making the correct rotations.  Its a whole lot easier to grab rebounds that way.

But of course I do agree that Powe is the better rebounder.  I just think the numbers are a little skewed.

[Brickowski]

Powe gets more offensive rebounds, often from his own misses.  But BBD does a great job of boxing out on the defensive glass.  He controls a side of the basket pretty much by himself. He doesn't always get those rebounds himself, but teammates do.

[Edgar]

Powe gets more offensive rebounds, often from his own misses.  But BBD does a great job of boxing out on the defensive glass.  He controls a side of the basket pretty much by himself. He doesn't always get those rebounds himself, but teammates do.

theyre getting good minutes while both in the floor i have np with the twin tweeners playin together as u point they both complement each other

[Chris]

Powe gets more offensive rebounds, often from his own misses.  But BBD does a great job of boxing out on the defensive glass.  He controls a side of the basket pretty much by himself. He doesn't always get those rebounds himself, but teammates do.

Exactly, and in the C's system, looking at whether the Center or PF grabbed a rebound really doesn't work, since they rotate so much, and I would guess are actually boxing out their own man less than 50% of the time.

[cordobes]

I think this is fairly moot since everybody seems to agree that Powe is the better rebounder.  However, building off of what Bill said:

Assumption:  BBD and Powe play roughly equal minutes, and spend the majority of their minutes playing together (both are true)

If Powe grabs + 2.2 rebounds as compared to the opposing power forward, and BBD grabs -1.6 rebounds as compared to the opposing center, that means the combo is roughly getting rebounded by 0.6 rebounds per 48 minutes against opposing big men.  When you compare their own rebounding numbers (11.75/48 for Powe, 8.875/48 for BBD) you see who is most likely responsible for this disparity.

As Bill was suggesting, BBD and Powe are basically rebounding against the same players.  The fact that Powe has a significantly better rebound rate suggests that he is the better rebounder.  BBD is the only one of the four front court big men who see regular minutes that has a negative rebound differential, which is one more indicator that he's of the same caliber in terms of rebounding. 

The problem is that although BBD and Powe are basically rebounding against the same players on the court, they are paired with different players (counterparts) in the stat sheet. And that's the problem with the metric you used. To make it slightly significant, it'd have to be adjusted and weighted to the rebounding proficiency of their counterparts (the guys they are "statistically" matched up on).

Now, rebounding rate - the % of missed shots they rebound - I think it's a good metric.

[Bankshot]

Tonight's game against Miami is the perfect example of why BBD is better or at least a better fit for the Celtics. Powe has a positive +/- even though he was terrible.  BBD played well and his is negative. 

Powe still hasn't learned to pass the darn ball and he is in his 3rd year, meanwhile BBD is an excellent passer and was so in his rookie year.  Powe might be a better rebounder, but not enough to give him the edge over BBD, imo.l  BBD is just simply a better all around player and remember he is only in his 2nd year while Powe is in his 3rd.

[crownsy]

Tonight's game against Miami is the perfect example of why BBD is better or at least a better fit for the Celtics. Powe has a positive +/- even though he was terrible.  BBD played well and his is negative. 

Powe still hasn't learned to pass the darn ball and he is in his 3rd year, meanwhile BBD is an excellent passer and was so in his rookie year.  Powe might be a better rebounder, but not enough to give him the edge over BBD, imo.l  BBD is just simply a better all around player and remember he is only in his 2nd year while Powe is in his 3rd.

you really think baby played that well?

I thought he was ok, but i didn't think he did much out there than tread water outside that one nice pass to rajon.

defensively he was good, but not great or anything.