depends on this year.
This is the key. Unless Powe absolutely explodes this year (which I suppose could happen), he is still just a undersized PF off the bench. A very good one, but they have become almost a dime a dozen in the league. So it all comes down to the year. Do teams have money to spend, and no one to spend it on? Are teams desperate enough to overpay so the C's won't match?
I don't see the C's giving him that much without him signing an offer sheet with another team, and that won't happen unless a team ends up like Golden State...sitting on a ton of money with no one to give it to. It certainly could happen...but I think its more likely that he signs a 2-3 year extension at $3.5-4 million per year, and then tries for his big payday after that.
are ones as consistant as leon a dime a dozen though? to me that's what teams may see as somethign that sets him apart. alot of those PF's are up and down (like big baby) leon has his off nights of course, but for the most part, he ALWAYS gives you alot of production in the rebounds and points in the paint department.
Well, I don't know if I would call Powe consistent yet. He was very inconsistent for most of last year, had a nice stretch at the end of the season, but went back to being inconsistent in the playoffs (which prompted him losing PT). If he proves this year that he can be consistent game in and game out, despite the matchups, then you are right, he will earn some more money. But that is still a big if.
yea, the matchups thing is a big thing we'll see. also, lookign back at it, i should have said offensivly consistant. as you alluded to, his inconsitancey comes on his defense. the good thing is His defensive lapses never come from lack of effort, they come from just being outmatched or brain farts.
I wouldn't even say that he was offensively consistent. He really struggled against certain matchups, because of his lack of size. Against other aggressive players, who had a height advantage, he had a tough time, because his aggressiveness (which normally sets him apart) wasn't as effective. For most of the season Doc didn't put him in these positions, so its a very small sample size, but this year will be very telling, because I expect him to get more consistent playing time. This year he will have to show that he can be effective against every team.
...I don't think you are taking the analysis far enough, which is necissary if you are projecting Powe's development and eventual ability level...
Powe's biggest issue with consistency last year came from HOW his offense came in games - almost exclusively on P&R and offensive rebounds...teams that were effective in protecting the defensive glass and making their rotations on P&R were able to limit Powe's effectiveness offensively...
But, as the season wore on, Powe began getting more Post/ISO touches from the baseline and extended elbow, which he began executing effectively...this off-season Powe worked exclusively on creating shot seperation, which we saw with the addition of his fade-away jumper in the lane...
So, Powe's limitations on offense have been negated by the diversification of his game and the team is starting to feed him more and as he continues to get touches and experience throughout the year, he should become much more consistent offensively.
As far as minutes go, Powe will always be between 18-25 mpg on this team because of Perk's progress, KG's dominance, and the need to give minutes to Davis in order to promote his development/value as well...However, it is highly unlikely that both Powe and Davis will both stay, so assuming only one remains, a 4-5 million a year deal is not a bad thing for this team assuming there will be ONE backup in the frontcourt, who could play 25-30 mpg depending on matchup and effectiveness...
Powe is already getting more minutes at center this year and the early returns show improvement defensively in this area - and his improved offensive arsenal allows him to be more effective on the other side of the court as well - this should continue as he hones his face-up game more and more...
...I think Boston would like a situational big with length for the matchups against superior offensive centers who are too much for Powe at times, (I say at times because as Powe's offense evens out, he'll be credible enough to still win the overall battle.)
Consider KG's age relative to Powe, it wouldn't be a bad investment to keep the still-developing young big as his growth will be in-step with KG's decline - 4-5 mill may very well seem like a bargain 3 years from now when Powe is good for 16-20 inside points any given game that a 35 year old KG is becoming much more of a jump shooter/defender...
Ultimately, these are the questions that Ainge and company are going to be evaluating - they will also do exhaustive statistical research and comparison to see what equivilent options are available at a price/production ratio...but Powe's per-minute production and overall offensive efficiency are "elite" and certainly not dime-a-dozen...even if undersized bigs are easy to find, its not easy to duplicate the levels of production that Powe gives...
...and as far as defense is concerned - Powe has been SUBSTANTIALLY better on his rotations...his man defense has always been stout and with his team rotations solidifying, there is very little not to like about his game - 10 pts and 4 rebounds in 17 mpg is mighty nice to get off the bench and i'd expect those numbers to be closer to 20mpg 13pts/6.5rbs by season's end...not too shabby...