How much are our young players worth when their contracts run up

[Triboy16]

Rondo - Picked up his option for next year but as things keep progressing and he can actually shoot pretty much automatic if left alone, with his quickness, defense and title listed on his resume he will be highly sought pg in the league. I predict somewhere between 7-8 million per year(for 5 years). I have a good feeling he might stay for a long while

Leon Powe - I truly believe now he is as physically healthy as any other injury  free player in the league. He has been nothing but fantastic since last year and into the pre season and doc let him be much more assertive in what he can do on the court.(creating his own shots, getting to shoot open jumpers, turnaround shots). After this year he will be a FA and you can expect alot teams dangling mid level type money for him to join their team. Danny has a chance to meet that request say at 2.5 - 3.5 million for 3 or 4 years but if another team offers 4 million and more for more than 3 years he is gone like posey. He is replaceable but also really valuable with his work ethic

Glen davis and gabe pruitt - both contract run out this year but i don't see many teams that will try to chase after their services. Danny could raise their entry salary to like 900 k a year for 2 years. I see them both offered deals of that kind and staying


So how much are these guys worth in the FA market(at their progressing states) and which players do you think we need to keep vs. they could be replaceable via draft or FA (and save some money)

[MrBlonde]

There should be a team option with Gabe.  They will either pick up the option or let him go.

[crownsy]

There should be a team option with Gabe.  They will either pick up the option or let him go.

they'll pick him up then, unless he lays a giant goose egg. not like there's any downside to keeping him around a year on the cheap.

[CT34]

There should be a team option with Gabe.  They will either pick up the option or let him go.

they'll pick him up then, unless he lays a giant goose egg. not like there's any downside to keeping him around a year on the cheap.

I think the Celtics would have a nice 1-2 punch at PG for the next couple of years if they sign Rajon and Gabe to 4 and 3 year contract. 

[2short]

Leon might just stick with Boston since we drafted him when so many people passed because of the knee, or at least this will give us an up I feel.  The trouble with resigning him is that he can start for some nba teams, so the question will be how much can another team pay him to start compared with us and a sub?
Rondo-sign him PERIOD, use scals expiring, long contract, he's the future of the team
Davis-if OBryant improves he's going to be traded (he or leon?), however if he continues to hit the outside J on pick & pop his play and likewise value goes up, I still see Davis at an affordable amount unless Isiah is out there somewhere 
Pruitt can be resigned for a deal or extended, I can see he & rondo as a backcourt when Ray is ready to relax in Ct
In the end we'll be happy we didn't pay Posey too much $$ for these (and other) reasons

[guava_wrench]

Leon might just stick with Boston since we drafted him when so many people passed because of the knee, or at least this will give us an up I feel.  The trouble with resigning him is that he can start for some nba teams, so the question will be how much can another team pay him to start compared with us and a sub?
Rondo-sign him PERIOD, use scals expiring, long contract, he's the future of the team
Davis-if OBryant improves he's going to be traded (he or leon?), however if he continues to hit the outside J on pick & pop his play and likewise value goes up, I still see Davis at an affordable amount unless Isiah is out there somewhere 
Pruitt can be resigned for a deal or extended, I can see he & rondo as a backcourt when Ray is ready to relax in Ct
In the end we'll be happy we didn't pay Posey too much $$ for these (and other) reasons

How can we use Scal's expiring contract to re-sign Rondo? Are you suggesting bartering?

[Chris]

Depending on how he plays this year, i think Rondo is looking at anywhere from TJ Ford money ($8 million starting) to $12 or $13 million.  It will likely end up somewhere in the middle.  Either way, I expect him to be resigned next summer.

Powe is probably looking at something between $3 and $5 million if he continues the way he has been going.  I think they resign him to a deal similar to Perks.

Davis is likely going to be the odd man out.  He will likely be looking for $2-$3 million, but may not find it here, unless he shows he can really play center.

Pruitt has an option for next year, so he is a non-issue.  But when he does come up for a new contract, unless he absolutely breaks out, I don't expect him to get more than $1-2 million per year.

Has anyone heard anything about how long Walker's contract was for?  Was it the standard 2 year deal, or did Danny reach into the exception to give him 3 years (which he prefers to do)?

[Fan from VT]

Pruitt: Team option for '09/'10 for $729,005
-can't project beyond that until we see a lot more this year and next.

Rondo: Team option for '09/'10 for $2,623,326.
-Devin Harris averaged 10.2p, 3.7a, 2.5r in his 3rd season, after which he signed an extension which kicks in this year at 7.8 mil. I think Harris is still regarded as a better prospect than Rondo, as he's basically as good defensively as Rondo, was drafted higher, and has more scoring ability.
-I'm not sure when Tinsley signed his post-rookie contract, but he averaged 8.3p, 5.8a, 2.6r in his 3rd season and 15.4p, 6.4a, and 4.1r in his 4th season, and somewhere in there signed the extension earning him 6.75 mil this year.
-In Ridnour's final season on his rookie scale contract he averaged 11.0p, 5.2a, 2.3r and makes 6.5 mil now.
-TJ Ford put up 14.0p, 7.9a, 3.1r but is injury prone. now he makes 8 mil, but he had a lot of negotiating leverage with Toronto.
-Earl Watson earned himself 6.2 mil by putting up 7.7p, 4.5a, 2.0r and playing good D. Rondo's already surpassed that.
-Louis Williams is coming off of 11.5p, 3.2a, 2.1r, promises to be a good scorer, and makes 4.5 on his extension.
-Jameer Nelson (same draft range) earns 5.6 this year and 6.1 when his extension kicks in after coming off his 13p, 4.3a, 3.0r season. ESPN has his salary at 7.7 compared to 6.1 for hoopshype next year.
-Considering Rondo's at 10.6p, 5.1a, 4.2r in year 2, he should fall somewhere between the 6.75 and 7.8 for the first year of his extension, probably toward the upper end or more if he hits free agency. I think playing with the Big Three will keep his numbers down and might help the team work an early extension. Combined with his low qualifying offer, hopefully he'll be closer to Tinsley's deal than Harris's.
14.0p, 7.9a, 3.1r

Glen Davis: Early Bird Free Agent in '08-'09 under the Gilbert Arenas Provision.
-Basically, any team can offer him up to the MLE, and we can match.
-Pretty replaceable in terms of production. duplicated by others on roster. not worth much more than 1.5 mil per year, probably.

Powe: Restricted free agent (if we offer him around 1 mil for a qualifying offer), full Bird rights (we can match any offer).
-A lot depends on this season and continued improvement.
-Hopefully other teams will be scared off by the Restricted tag, and his gross numbers will stay relatively low due to playing behind KG while his limited time on the court remains productive.
-Perk averaged 4.5p, 1.5a, 5.2r and showed toughness, defense, and a more valuable position than powe and got 4.5 mil per year out of it.
-I don't know about comparable cases to Powe
-Turiaf was lured away for 4.5 mil this year. They may be closish, but Powe is much better offensively.
-Reggie evans, basically the inverse of Powe in terms of rebounding and scoring, makes 4.6.
-Basically, I see Powe getting about the Perk deal from boston, 3.5-4.5 per year. good value, if so.





Edit: Darn you Chris, you posted yours while I was researching and writing mine. And we came to similar conclusions, but you got yours in first. Curses.

[cordobes]

(...)
Has anyone heard anything about how long Walker's contract was for?  Was it the standard 2 year deal, or did Danny reach into the exception to give him 3 years (which he prefers to do)?

Shamsports says it's 2 years guaranteed plus team options for the following 2 years - so he can be here for cheap for the next 4 years. Although they don't have access to official salary numbers, they've been pretty reliable; and I remember reading it was a 4 year contract when it was signed.

Rondo - starting at the $7 million - $8 million range.
Powe - somewhere between Landry's recent contract and Detroit's rejected offer to Maxiell, with the first being a more probable benchmark.
BBD - depends a lot on his production this season. Assuming Powe is resigned, his value for other teams is probably higher than for Boston.
Pruitt - too early to predict.

[Triboy16]

good post man. Good details. But also your facts scare me even more

Devin harris has something important missing in his resume and that is a title under his belt. Rondo will get a 5 year 40-45 million deal. After that i think he will be something like 28 and in his prime to rake in bigger money(as long as he keeps improving)

Turiaf is a decent prospects but its crazy he is worth 4.5 per year. The comparisons are very good with him and powe. (they both do have championship experience). Two types of team could dealy use his services, 1 a team like new orleans who is missing that one key bench guy and 2 a young undisciplined team that can get exposures to powe hard working ways.

another interesting thing if we sign both rondo say 8 mill per season and powe at 4 is that either ray allen or pierce won't comeback.

[Fan from VT]

good post man. Good details. But also your facts scare me even more

Devin harris has something important missing in his resume and that is a title under his belt. Rondo will get a 5 year 40-45 million deal. After that i think he will be something like 28 and in his prime to rake in bigger money(as long as he keeps improving)

Turiaf is a decent prospects but its crazy he is worth 4.5 per year. The comparisons are very good with him and powe. (they both do have championship experience). Two types of team could dealy use his services, 1 a team like new orleans who is missing that one key bench guy and 2 a young undisciplined team that can get exposures to powe hard working ways.

another interesting thing if we sign both rondo say 8 mill per season and powe at 4 is that either ray allen or pierce won't comeback.

1st, ray will not be worth 12 when contracts need to be renewed.

2nd, I wonder how much of a premium GM's put on title winning compared to fans and writers as a bench mark for payable success. I suspect some, but not nearly as much as fans do.

[ILoveWalta]

There should be a team option with Gabe.  They will either pick up the option or let him go.

they'll pick him up then, unless he lays a giant goose egg. not like there's any downside to keeping him around a year on the cheap.

I think the Celtics would have a nice 1-2 punch at PG for the next couple of years if they sign Rajon and Gabe to 4 and 3 year contract. 

Celts have a team option to keep Pruitt for the 09/10 season @ $730K.  At that price - seems like a steal considering he'll have 2 years under his belt at season ends.  Hopefully he turns some heads this season.

[JBcat]

Pruitt: Team option for '09/'10 for $729,005
-can't project beyond that until we see a lot more this year and next.

Rondo: Team option for '09/'10 for $2,623,326.
-Devin Harris averaged 10.2p, 3.7a, 2.5r in his 3rd season, after which he signed an extension which kicks in this year at 7.8 mil. I think Harris is still regarded as a better prospect than Rondo, as he's basically as good defensively as Rondo, was drafted higher, and has more scoring ability.
-I'm not sure when Tinsley signed his post-rookie contract, but he averaged 8.3p, 5.8a, 2.6r in his 3rd season and 15.4p, 6.4a, and 4.1r in his 4th season, and somewhere in there signed the extension earning him 6.75 mil this year.
-In Ridnour's final season on his rookie scale contract he averaged 11.0p, 5.2a, 2.3r and makes 6.5 mil now.
-TJ Ford put up 14.0p, 7.9a, 3.1r but is injury prone. now he makes 8 mil, but he had a lot of negotiating leverage with Toronto.
-Earl Watson earned himself 6.2 mil by putting up 7.7p, 4.5a, 2.0r and playing good D. Rondo's already surpassed that.
-Louis Williams is coming off of 11.5p, 3.2a, 2.1r, promises to be a good scorer, and makes 4.5 on his extension.
-Jameer Nelson (same draft range) earns 5.6 this year and 6.1 when his extension kicks in after coming off his 13p, 4.3a, 3.0r season. ESPN has his salary at 7.7 compared to 6.1 for hoopshype next year.
-Considering Rondo's at 10.6p, 5.1a, 4.2r in year 2, he should fall somewhere between the 6.75 and 7.8 for the first year of his extension, probably toward the upper end or more if he hits free agency. I think playing with the Big Three will keep his numbers down and might help the team work an early extension. Combined with his low qualifying offer, hopefully he'll be closer to Tinsley's deal than Harris's.
14.0p, 7.9a, 3.1r

Glen Davis: Early Bird Free Agent in '08-'09 under the Gilbert Arenas Provision.
-Basically, any team can offer him up to the MLE, and we can match.
-Pretty replaceable in terms of production. duplicated by others on roster. not worth much more than 1.5 mil per year, probably.

Powe: Restricted free agent (if we offer him around 1 mil for a qualifying offer), full Bird rights (we can match any offer).
-A lot depends on this season and continued improvement.
-Hopefully other teams will be scared off by the Restricted tag, and his gross numbers will stay relatively low due to playing behind KG while his limited time on the court remains productive.
-Perk averaged 4.5p, 1.5a, 5.2r and showed toughness, defense, and a more valuable position than powe and got 4.5 mil per year out of it.
-I don't know about comparable cases to Powe
-Turiaf was lured away for 4.5 mil this year. They may be closish, but Powe is much better offensively.
-Reggie evans, basically the inverse of Powe in terms of rebounding and scoring, makes 4.6.
-Basically, I see Powe getting about the Perk deal from boston, 3.5-4.5 per year. good value, if so.





Edit: Darn you Chris, you posted yours while I was researching and writing mine. And we came to similar conclusions, but you got yours in first. Curses.

Very good post.  TP.  Whatever happens with our young guys I hope we don't lose them for nothing via free   agency in the next year or 2 whether we have to trade them for a future pick or another player in return.  Unless of course if they play so bad they don't have any value. 

I think it's way too early in the game to predict future salaries a couple years down the road for POB, Pruitt, Walker, and Giddens.

Tony Allen is still a relatively young player and if he stays injury free and plays up to his potential within the team frame his value can go up some 2 years from now.

Lastly we have the rights to Erden.   I really have no idea what he can do other than he looked mobile watching him play 1 game.  However in a league where teams are always looking for 7 ft centers who play he could have some value to us or someone else if they want to trade for him.     

[billysan]

Maybe it is just me but all of these guys seem easily replaceable (with the exception of Rajon Rondo) for something around the veterans minimum. I just dont see Leon Powe making more than 2 million per in the open market.

Rondo's value will be calculated on more than simple stats. He cannot be compared that way to other PG because of who he plays with and GM's know this. Hopefully he signs for a 5 year 35-40 million with us because I dont see a bigger offer unless it is with a losing team. That will be a bad career move because he will not have three HOF players on the court with him as starters. He also needs to be in the mix as far as All Star voting to help increase his contract leverage. Until that happens, he may not be offered more than 30 million per for 5 years.

[Fan from VT]

Really, though, Powe gives you 8 and 4 in 14.5 minutes. not many can duplicate than, certainly not at the league minimum. Carl landry had one year of 8 and 5 in 17 minutes and got himself 3 yrs 9 mil. that'd be good for powe.