Who Will the Red Sox Target for 08/09 FA? Who Will They Trade?

[yall hate]

Peavys careers ERA out of Petco is 3.80, in 95 less innings on the road he has given up 34 more homeruns, that is not a good sign. Its true that his career ERA against the AL is 3.29 in 20 starts, but thats a pretty SSS and is tough to go off of.

That is a great stat that I overlooked.  I'd be interested to know what the league average was for home/away splits, especially amongst top of the rotation pitchers.  I think even if is era ended up around a 4.10 he would be a good pick up in this scenario, only if the Youk trade brought back enough to not only get Peavy, but pick up a young catcher while maintaining organiational depth on the farm.  By this I mean loosing no more than 1 or 2 of the top 5. 

I'd be curious to stretch the stat further (and you would run into SSS, but to see what it is outside of Petco, against AL teams.  not just the AL east which has had some Dogs in it in the past (rays, orioles, etc...).  obviously other things come into play like the general uncomfortableness of pitching on the road, etc but it would be nice to see what he does when there is a DH in there, and he is not pitching in that monster of a park.

[Big_Matt34]

Peavys careers ERA out of Petco is 3.80, in 95 less innings on the road he has given up 34 more homeruns, that is not a good sign. Its true that his career ERA against the AL is 3.29 in 20 starts, but thats a pretty SSS and is tough to go off of.

That is a great stat that I overlooked.  I'd be interested to know what the league average was for home/away splits, especially amongst top of the rotation pitchers.  I think even if is era ended up around a 4.10 he would be a good pick up in this scenario, only if the Youk trade brought back enough to not only get Peavy, but pick up a young catcher while maintaining organiational depth on the farm.  By this I mean loosing no more than 1 or 2 of the top 5. 

I'd be curious to stretch the stat further (and you would run into SSS, but to see what it is outside of Petco, against AL teams.  not just the AL east which has had some Dogs in it in the past (rays, orioles, etc...).  obviously other things come into play like the general uncomfortableness of pitching on the road, etc but it would be nice to see what he does when there is a DH in there, and he is not pitching in that monster of a park.

I checked that out earlier, he has a 2.99 ERA against AL teams in AL parks, but its really skewered by 22 shutout IP between the RAys and Mariners. Against the Tigers, Yankees, Indians, Royals, and Angels he has a 5.50 ERA in their parks and a 0 ERA in 22 IP in the Trop and Safeco.

[gkiteisscal]

Peavys careers ERA out of Petco is 3.80, in 95 less innings on the road he has given up 34 more homeruns, that is not a good sign. Its true that his career ERA against the AL is 3.29 in 20 starts, but thats a pretty SSS and is tough to go off of.

That is a great stat that I overlooked.  I'd be interested to know what the league average was for home/away splits, especially amongst top of the rotation pitchers.  I think even if is era ended up around a 4.10 he would be a good pick up in this scenario, only if the Youk trade brought back enough to not only get Peavy, but pick up a young catcher while maintaining organiational depth on the farm.  By this I mean loosing no more than 1 or 2 of the top 5. 

I'd be curious to stretch the stat further (and you would run into SSS, but to see what it is outside of Petco, against AL teams.  not just the AL east which has had some Dogs in it in the past (rays, orioles, etc...).  obviously other things come into play like the general uncomfortableness of pitching on the road, etc but it would be nice to see what he does when there is a DH in there, and he is not pitching in that monster of a park.

I checked that out earlier, he has a 2.99 ERA against AL teams in AL parks, but its really skewered by 22 shutout IP between the RAys and Mariners. Against the Tigers, Yankees, Indians, Royals, and Angels he has a 5.50 ERA in their parks and a 0 ERA in 22 IP in the Trop and Safeco.

great stuff!! So he has stunk in his (i'm guessing only appearance) games against top tier AL offenses (Royals not included).  Even though that is a SSS it is [dang]ing.  He seems to have the skill set however to succeed, ie he's not smoke & mirrors and he's not effectively wild.  From what I've seen, which is also a SSS, he seems to be able to pound the strike zone with his fastball and effectively throw his breaking pitches.  His fastball also appears to have good mvmt but I do not have any tangible evidence of this only my eyes. 

[Toine43]

Teixeira Update: Angels are out of the running (not John Henry's definition of out of the running, but actually out of the running).
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3785901

This is more good news for Sox fans who want Mark Teixeira. Unless the Evil Empire swoops in (which they've been known to do), it's pretty much down to the Red Sox and the Nationals. In Washington he'll get more money, and proximity to his hometown. In Boston he'll have to settle for securing only his great grandchildren financially and not his great great grandchildren, but he'll be winning.

[Nerf DPOY]

Teixeira Update: Angels are out of the running (not John Henry's definition of out of the running, but actually out of the running).
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3785901

This is more good news for Sox fans who want Mark Teixeira. Unless the Evil Empire swoops in (which they've been known to do), it's pretty much down to the Red Sox and the Nationals.

You forgot THE MYSTERY TEAM!

I'm a little surprised that the Angels publicly took their offer off of the table. I'm not really sure what they're trying to accomplish with that. What for them now? Maybe sign Dunn? He's played a little first.

[yall hate]

Teixeira Update: Angels are out of the running (not John Henry's definition of out of the running, but actually out of the running).
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3785901

This is more good news for Sox fans who want Mark Teixeira. Unless the Evil Empire swoops in (which they've been known to do), it's pretty much down to the Red Sox and the Nationals.

You forgot THE MYSTERY TEAM!

I'm a little surprised that the Angels publicly took their offer off of the table. I'm not really sure what they're trying to accomplish with that. What for them now? Maybe sign Dunn? He's played a little first.

I think they realized, and even said, it was obvious Tex wasnt going back.  They werent going to pay 200 million for him, so why allow themselves to be one of Boras's pawn.  He wants to be on the east coast and since the Angels werent going to be outbidding the other teams, there was no reason for them to hang around. 

[Tr1boy]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/2008_12_21_Reports:_Angels_out_on_Mark_Teixeira/

looks like arte murano is actually spending efficinetly in this struggling economic times. He tried and if i can get inside his brains he prob feels teixera if he really wanted to play for the angels another 10 million wouldn't have made a difference.

So reading the article, three teams still in are the nationals, orioles and redsox. Nationals 7 years at 150 mill, redsox 8 year 170 mill (both approx 21.5 million) and orioles 8 years 160 million.

Redsox are in the front and i think henry meant the team is out of the race to sign teix as in that he and the rest of the org won't go up any higher.

Its an interesting chess game that i can see henry passively confident at this stage. The orioles for example can up their offer to 10 more mill but still teix will be turned off playing for a non contender again. (one of the big reason reasons i believe he left texas). Pretty much same scenirio with the nationals.

Both teams could do 175 million for 8 years, but that wouldn't be significant enough from prying teix out of the redsox hands, and lastly at 180 million + this could turn into another arod fiasco we witnessed back with texas.

In theory he should be a redsox by next week signing for 8 years at 170 million with no trade claus, possibly player option after 6 or 7 year and team option like the manny deal. ( he won't get the money he was greedy for but will at least ask for most of these clauses)

[Tr1boy]

Since our chances signing manny increases to 75 percent plus as the days near xmas i wonder how this is all going to work with youk and lowell.

Redsox i hope arent waiting for teix to decide before concentrating on youk. Lowell also must be super antsy with what is going on.

2 scenerios i can see play out is that all three players stay, and share time or either youk or lowell get traded.

Don't want to trade youk but he would bring you significant talent such as a rusell martin quality catcher. Or two top prospects and a really decent middle relief pitcher or utility player. (compared to trading lowell)

Ideal lineup situation would be

cf ellsbury
2b pedroia
1b Ortiz
dh Teix
3b Youk
LF Drew
RF Bay
C  Catcher like teargarden/Tek
SS Lowry

I feel bad for any pitchers having to deal with this potential lineup

[yall hate]

In theory he should be a redsox by next week signing for 8 years at 170 million with no trade claus, possibly player option after 6 or 7 year and team option like the manny deal. ( he won't get the money he was greedy for but will at least ask for most of these clauses)

Sox in the past have made it club policy to not give no trade clauses.

As for your later posting regarding Youk, he said last week that their had been early, preliminary discussions with his agent regarding an extension, but he would be fine going year to year with arbitration if the extension doesnt get hammered out.

[Chris]

In theory he should be a redsox by next week signing for 8 years at 170 million with no trade claus, possibly player option after 6 or 7 year and team option like the manny deal. ( he won't get the money he was greedy for but will at least ask for most of these clauses)

Sox in the past have made it club policy to not give no trade clauses.

As for your later posting regarding Youk, he said last week that their had been early, preliminary discussions with his agent regarding an extension, but he would be fine going year to year with arbitration if the extension doesnt get hammered out.

Yeah, I don't see the Sox budging on the no-trade clause, or the early-out.  It would set terrible precendents, much more than just giving him extra money.

[nickagneta]

Red Sox always prefer for players to earn their no trade clause and Teixeira will be no different. He will get his no trade clause but only the same way everyone else does, becoming a 10/5 guy with the Red Sox. His first five years he will just have to deal.

Also, did I read correctly and did triboy say that the Red Sox chances of signing Manny increased to 75% as Christmas nears. I find that difficult to believe since our chances of signing Manny is zero. The Yankees will be signing Manny.

[yall hate]

Also, did I read correctly and did triboy say that the Red Sox chances of signing Manny increased to 75% as Christmas nears. I find that difficult to believe since our chances of signing Manny is zero. The Yankees will be signing Manny.

I think he meant Tex.  Tex had said he wants this to be over by christmas, so i think he pulled a random percentage with another team dropping out.

[Tr1boy]

My bad i meant Teix. And i do believe highly it is 75 percent and over he is going to sign with us the next couple of days.

I know the whole no trade claus rule that the redsox have but something small like that could really pizz off teix enough for him to talk with the angels again.

Redsox should make such an exception to teix and most big name players if they are not wanted will change their minds anyway and let the trade occur.

To me its simple to make this transaction smooth as possible, give him 190 + deal and he doesn't care who he plays for or give him a 170 deal and give him clauses mainly on his terms.

[yall hate]

My bad i meant Teix. And i do believe highly it is 75 percent and over he is going to sign with us the next couple of days.

I know the whole no trade claus rule that the redsox have but something small like that could really pizz off teix enough for him to talk with the angels again.

Redsox should make such an exception to teix and most big name players if they are not wanted will change their minds anyway and let the trade occur.

To me its simple to make this transaction smooth as possible, give him 190 + deal and he doesn't care who he plays for or give him a 170 deal and give him clauses mainly on his terms.

The percentage is just silly, because what are you basing it on?  I mean, why not 60%?  why not 80%?  but thats irrelevant I guess.

The problem with the no trade clause, and only giving to 'stars' is where do you draw the line?  when you are negotiating with Youk, do you say, no you arent good enough for a No Trade?  etc...It sets a bad precedent.  And he can go talk to the angels all he wants.  they arent offering more money so it doesnt really matter.

And the Sox arent going to 190 million.  There offer appears to be final (which is why John Henry said they wouldnt be a factor).  It also appears to be the highest offer.  So really the wait is just on the Nationals and to a lesser extent the O's and Yankees as to whether anyone outbids them.  hopefully it ends soon, this is getting annoying (like Santana last year)

[Tr1boy]

yell hate 75 percent 80 percent 70 percent , whatever it is the redsox has the advantage. Don't ask me as to how i came up with that percentage , its just a hunch

Let me ask you something, do you give julio lugo a 3 year deal with no trade claus?? absolutely not

How about a player like manny?? well its a safer risk because you know he has the talent to produce for a long time. If he is not wanted also he will ask to leave more than anything. For me a no trade claus once you deal with a superstar type talent doesn't mean anything really if you think about it

nationals or orioles could go up to 8 year 170 million and include all the clauses he wants, i mean eventually them being contenders won't matter much anymore for teixera to consider them