The more I think about these signings the more I don't like that we didn't find a way to get Posey done. The financial prudence I still stand by and if ultimately the choice was between Posey and these two guys I would have preferred Posey.
Agreed, Nick. I understand holding the line on Posey, I see the breakdown like this:
Fourth year of Posey's contract: $7 million (likely no luxury tax at that point)
First year of Tony's contract: $2.5 million (roughly) + $2.5m luxury tax = $5 million
In terms of actual finances, we're talking about $2 million. Would the team have been better off to not sign Tony, keep an open roster spot if necessary, and go to a fourth year with Posey, even if he'll have diminished skills at that point? I tend to think so.
Well, we are actually talking about a lot more than that. I'll base what i'm doing on the following figures. Interesting that hoopshype has O'Bryant's numbers at 2 yr $3.12 million which would have to be partial LLE money:
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm
If we had just sign Posey to the 4 year deal that's(all values in millions of dollars):
Year 1: $5.65 + $5.65(luxtax) = $11.3 they are already in the luxtax penalty
Year 2: $6.10 + $0.10(luxtax) = $6.2 only Powe and Davis are off the books and my guess is that at least one returns at about $1.5. Also I'll throw in another $2.2 for Walker, Giddens and Erden who should come aboard next year. I assume an increase in the luxury tax to $74. The team would be right on the tax threshold or barely over it. Any other additions I would then attribute to those contracts.
Year 3: $6.55
Year 4: $7.1
Total: $31.15
Eddie and Tony's contracts.
Year 1: $2.5 + $2.5 +$5.0(luxtax) = $10.0
Year 2: $2.8 + $2.7 = $5.5
Total: $15.5
Difference: $15.65 but I really wouldn't have a problem with the third year of Posey's contract so let's subtract that.
Total difference: $9.15
But if the team spends more this year of the MLE on someone other than Walker and they spend money equaling a vet min in year 2 that goes to meet Posey's number then I would then count those numbers against this total. That could equal as much as another $2.7.
Now my comparison is signing Posey vs not signing either of House or Allen.
Roy your numbers seem to justify the last year of Posey's contract vs the wisdom of signing Tony at all.
Both valid ways of looking at it.
And neither really takes into account the money that would be allocated to Posey in those last two years possibly being spent on someone else, which could be an upgrade over Posey.
Still my choice is if this team signed Posey and no one else or Tony and Eddie and no one else. I would have preferred Posey.
But the offseason is still young, maybe the step back won't be as big as we now view it if something else is done.
Last thing. Roy, what is now the restriction on trading either of these guys, 90 days?
i'm not sure why you guys are so hung up on luxury dollars. especially for this year. the ownership was clearly willing to go way over the cap the next couple of season when they were going to offer Posey the full MLE for three seasons.
i think Danny and Wyc, et al were all on the same page when it came to spending serious money to try and get at least one more Title out of GPA. another Title would certainly counter act any of the luxury tax penalties from a business standpoint or i don't think they would have been offering the big dough to Posey for ANY amount of years.
the decision to not offer Posey the fourth year (as we discussed at length) IMO had three main components and none of them has to do with not wanting to pay luxury tax money on his contract:
1) i think Danny thinks that he can still find someone to play well in Posey's MPG. this has to be the most important factor in letting Posey wallk from my standpoint.
2) he wants Walker and/or Giddens to be able to step in to a major role at the latest after the 2010 season (which may be NEXT season the way we are going).
3) he believes that in 2011 we are still going to be a Title contender with at least Paul, KG and Rondo, et al and he wants to have the most cap possible to go after someone to pair with Paul and KG.
i would rather take my best shot the next few seasons and not worry so much about #3. but the wild card for me right now is Walker and Giddens. they both have the athleticism to actually - at least for the regular season - make us not worry so much about not having Pose. if we can get one of those guys to really commit to defense and rebounding, it could be at the very least really fun to watch them add some serious ups to our game.....and then let Danny keep an eye on the waiver/trade wire for the course of the season.
I think the most important of those components is the third. He leaves hinself with the ability, financially, to use the money that would have gone to Posey in either of the last 2 years on someone else who might be a significant upgrade over Posey.
BTW, don't you feel that when discussing contracts and dollar values of those contracts that it would be wise to discuss the luxury tax and their effect at looking at a contract from the proper fiscal perspective.
I do.
If you are at the luxury tax level and someone signs a contract, that contract, for that year, should, IMHO, by viewed with the additional penalty monies that that contract created.
So, when Roy brought up looking at Posey's year 4 vs the Allen contract, I think it is fair to note that Posey's fourth year will probably not be causing luxury tax penalties whereas at least the first year of Tony's contract would.
I think that is a very fair way of looking at things.
Topic: Natives take a rest... Allen, House signed, sealed almost delivered (Read 23847 times)