The more I think about these signings the more I don't like that we didn't find a way to get Posey done. The financial prudence I still stand by and if ultimately the choice was between Posey and these two guys I would have preferred Posey.
Agreed, Nick. I understand holding the line on Posey, I see the breakdown like this:
Fourth year of Posey's contract: $7 million (likely no luxury tax at that point)
First year of Tony's contract: $2.5 million (roughly) + $2.5m luxury tax = $5 million
In terms of actual finances, we're talking about $2 million. Would the team have been better off to not sign Tony, keep an open roster spot if necessary, and go to a fourth year with Posey, even if he'll have diminished skills at that point? I tend to think so.
Well, we are actually talking about a lot more than that. I'll base what i'm doing on the following figures. Interesting that hoopshype has O'Bryant's numbers at 2 yr $3.12 million which would have to be partial LLE money:
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htmIf we had just sign Posey to the 4 year deal that's(all values in millions of dollars):
Year 1: $5.65 + $5.65(luxtax) = $11.3 they are already in the luxtax penalty
Year 2: $6.10 + $0.10(luxtax) = $6.2 only Powe and Davis are off the books and my guess is that at least one returns at about $1.5. Also I'll throw in another $2.2 for Walker, Giddens and Erden who should come aboard next year. I assume an increase in the luxury tax to $74. The team would be right on the tax threshold or barely over it. Any other additions I would then attribute to those contracts.
Year 3: $6.55
Year 4: $7.1
Total: $31.15
Eddie and Tony's contracts.
Year 1: $2.5 + $2.5 +$5.0(luxtax) = $10.0
Year 2: $2.8 + $2.7 = $5.5
Total: $15.5
Difference: $15.65 but I really wouldn't have a problem with the third year of Posey's contract so let's subtract that.
Total difference: $9.15
But if the team spends more this year of the MLE on someone other than Walker and they spend money equaling a vet min in year 2 that goes to meet Posey's number then I would then count those numbers against this total. That could equal as much as another $2.7.
Now my comparison is signing Posey vs not signing either of House or Allen.
Roy your numbers seem to justify the last year of Posey's contract vs the wisdom of signing Tony at all.
Both valid ways of looking at it.
And neither really takes into account the money that would be allocated to Posey in those last two years possibly being spent on someone else, which could be an upgrade over Posey.
Still my choice is if this team signed Posey and no one else or Tony and Eddie and no one else. I would have preferred Posey.
But the offseason is still young, maybe the step back won't be as big as we now view it if something else is done.
Last thing. Roy, what is now the restriction on trading either of these guys, 90 days?