Natives take a rest... Allen, House signed, sealed almost delivered

[kozlodoev]

@everyone

I don't find anything unusual with the qualifying offer situation. If Posey was signed, Tony would have likely not come back. We missed on Posey and saved couple of hundred bucks in the process, what's the problem?!

[wahz]

Now it dawns on us that not signing Posey made no sense?? ROTFL!! He would have come off the books that same time as the big three and been as an important part of the wheel as Perk and Rondo but NOW we wonder why we worried about saving 2-7 million, when we will be in full out rebuild mode anyway? Brother. I never read one post that made sense which explained why we should not give him the 4th year. By not giving him 4, we don't get him at all.That's the way it is. It never made sense to worry about the cap in 4 years. Do LA, SA and Houston win all those titles without Horry? a few less. Why the glue guys are not appreciated enough I will never understand. The celts did the same thing with Paul Silas in the 70's

Make no mistake, we now sign House and TA as the best possible alternative with what is left out there. We need to fill roster spots why not use guys we know and keep as much chemistry intact as we can. You have to hope Obryant is a shocker to the rest of the league. You have to hope TA raises it two notches. You have to hope one of the rookies adds a little help right away. And we NEED to pick up a glue guy or maybe two and that means a selfless defender on the cheap

[meesho33]

Anyone know what the difference in money for next season is for TA if we just picked up his option?

Also isnt it safe to assume that at least Walker (maybe JR) will play in the D League?  What are the roster rules for that?  I can recall but Im fairly sure they do not count against the NBA roster.

Finally, I also think that either BBD or Powe will go.  I like Powe better myself just because he has better defensive rotations and is more explosive in the paint.  If BBD comes into camp with a better vert (like being able to dunk flat footed) and in better shape it will be a close competition. 

If he signed for $2.5 million as it's being reported, it's a $200.000 difference from his QO. I find this very puzzling. I'm starting to believe that Ainge grossly miscalculated the Posey situation and that this is a panic move.

Players sent to the DLeague count against the roster. Right now, we only have one roster spot open.

I think Ainge was confident the 3 year MLE would get Posey back.  So I do not think it was a gross miscalculation.  Even NO was very hesitant to pull the trigger on the 4th year until the very end.

As far as this being a panic move - it seemed to me that it was Ainges plan all along to bring TA back only if Posey left - knowing that TA was a better option to fill Posey's minutes than most other FA's (besides maybe Maggette).

If TA is healthy, he can be very productive on both ends of the floor.

Big IF though - we should have just ponied up and brought back Big Game James.

[BballTim]

When was Allen's injury really affecting him last year?  Unless part of his injury included the tendency to dribble the ball off his foot and that's somehow going to be cured this season, I don't expect much improvement from Tony Allen.  However, it does look like he's going to get more PT, so his stats will inevitably go up. 

  Fully recovering from his previous knee injury seemed to drastically affect his play. This might not be different.

O'Bryant might be an OK P.J. replacement.  He also might not.  I don't like taking risks like that when the Big Three only have so much left in their tank.

  How much do they have left in their tank? Paul and KG are 30 and 31. I think Kareem was finals MVP when he was 37 or 38. I keep seeing that we have a 2-3 year window, but I'm not sure that's the case, especially depending on what happens when Ray's contract comes up.

As for House, the big problem with him is this:

House--> House and 1/2 the MLE burned = Downgrade

  Which of the available free agents did you want to spend the full MLE on? It's only an issue if it prevents us from signing someone else.

[klg05]

It's interesting; I always cringed whenever Tony came in the game last year, but I feel strangely comforted by his return.

[Brendan]

Not to pick on Roy in particular, but I see this logic a lot:

I sure hope not.

P.J. --> O'Bryant = Downgrade
Posey --> Bill Walker = Downgrade
Tony --> Tony = No Change
House --> House = No Change

That hurts.  We'll see some sort of contribution from Giddens, and some of our young guys (Rondo, BBD, maybe Perk) can be expected to improve.  On the other hand, the "big three" is getting older, as well, so it's possible that their skills slip slightly.

My thought was that if you losed Posey, you needed to upgrade the team elsewhere.  We haven't done that.

PJ wasn't with the team until the playoffs, and we were actually a better team regular season, then post season, statistically, and since we were the best at both, I'd call it a push.

The minutes PJ got in the post season, were played by Powe late in the year, and BBD early in the year, I see it as:

the backup big: BBD/Powe/Brown -> Powe
the other backup big: Posey at PF / BBD / Powe -> BBD
the scrub big: Pollard -> O'B

Posey at SF -> Scal / TA

House/Cassel -> House/Pruitt

[wahz]

Is this our team to start the season?

I sure hope not.

P.J. --> O'Bryant = Downgrade
Posey --> Bill Walker = Downgrade
Tony --> Tony = No Change
House --> House = No Change

That hurts.  We'll see some sort of contribution from Giddens, and some of our young guys (Rondo, BBD, maybe Perk) can be expected to improve.  On the other hand, the "big three" is getting older, as well, so it's possible that their skills slip slightly.

My thought was that if you losed Posey, you needed to upgrade the team elsewhere.  We haven't done that.

1.Assuming that KG, Cliff Ray and Powe's work ethic rub off on O'bryant, he will not be a downgrade over the course of the season.

2.Powe, Baby, Rajon, and Perk can all be expected to be better, and certainly cumulatively should be better.

3.Tony Allen will be healthier. That will be an improvement there too. Apparently Danny and Doc feel TA deserves another full year evaluation, and this buys the rookie wings some time to grow.

4. The big three will have played together for a full year. My guess is that this is the year they will play their best ball together.

 Having said all that, when it comes to clutch playoff time, and it will, we have a significant net downgrade so far. Can OBryant be clucth in the playoffs? Of course we can't count on that. My plan would be to add another 5, so that KG is always at the 4, and then plan on adding another shooter in February. You could do the opposite and add a guy who can defend the 4 and 3 now and then add a 5 in February.


 

When was Allen's injury really affecting him last year?  Unless part of his injury included the tendency to dribble the ball off his foot and that's somehow going to be cured this season, I don't expect much improvement from Tony Allen.  However, it does look like he's going to get more PT, so his stats will inevitably go up. 

O'Bryant might be an OK P.J. replacement.  He also might not.  I don't like taking risks like that when the Big Three only have so much left in their tank.

As for House, the big problem with him is this:

House--> House and 1/2 the MLE burned = Downgrade

Jon,

if you couldn't tell how tentative TA was last year compared to before his second injury I really don't know what to say. He blew layups that he couldn't get up for off his injured leg. You could see how he worried about what leg he would land on and he would try to switch in mid air.

Chances are good he will be a better dribbler next year but the chances are very good he will be a better defender and get to the hoop better. I don't know how many of you have seen all the guys in person but TA stands out as a guy who appears MUCH larger in person than he does by his roster listing. He is much bigger than Ray. At court side he appears nearly as big as Posey and certainly more powerful looking. He is about as big as Paul. I don't think he is a bad signing for this money and what is left out there

[kozlodoev]

Now it dawns on us that not signing Posey made no sense?? ROTFL!! He would have come off the books that same time as the big three and been as an important part of the wheel as Perk and Rondo but NOW we wonder why we worried about saving 2-7 million, when we will be in full out rebuild mode anyway? Brother. I never read one post that made sense which explained why we should not give him the 4th year. By not giving him 4, we don't get him at all.That's the way it is. It never made sense to worry about the cap in 4 years. Do LA, SA and Houston win all those titles without Horry? a few less. Why the glue guys are not appreciated enough I will never understand. The celts did the same thing with Paul Silas in the 70's

Make no mistake, we now sign House and TA as the best possible alternative with what is left out there. We need to fill roster spots why not use guys we know and keep as much chemistry intact as we can. You have to hope Obryant is a shocker to the rest of the league. You have to hope TA raises it two notches. You have to hope one of the rookies adds a little help right away. And we NEED to pick up a glue guy or maybe two and that means a selfless defender on the cheap

Posts like this one usually provoke the only logical response in me: Good that you're not managing the team.

There have been plenty of insightful comments about why we didn't want to give Posey year 4, and even originally, year 3. Even Ainge has explained that. Of course, it seems like you cannot be bothered to read these, though feel compelled to write a two-paragraph venting post that, frankly, lacks too much substance.

For the record, I don't believe anyone on the team ever cared about saving millions for the sake of saving millions, be it 2 or 7.

[wahz]

The more I think about these signings the more I don't like that we didn't find a way to get Posey done. The financial prudence I still stand by and if ultimately the choice was between Posey and these two guys I would have preferred Posey.

Agreed, Nick.  I understand holding the line on Posey, I see the breakdown like this:

Fourth year of Posey's contract: $7 million (likely no luxury tax at that point)
First year of Tony's contract: $2.5 million (roughly) + $2.5m luxury tax = $5 million

In terms of actual finances, we're talking about $2 million.  Would the team have been better off to not sign Tony, keep an open roster spot if necessary, and go to a fourth year with Posey, even if he'll have diminished skills at that point?  I tend to think so.

Well, we are actually talking about a lot more than that. I'll base what i'm doing on the following figures. Interesting that hoopshype has O'Bryant's numbers at 2 yr $3.12 million which would have to be partial LLE money:

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

If we had just sign Posey to the 4 year deal that's(all values in millions of dollars):

Year 1: $5.65 + $5.65(luxtax) = $11.3   they are already in the luxtax penalty
Year 2: $6.10 + $0.10(luxtax) = $6.2   only Powe and Davis are off the books and my guess is that at least one returns at about $1.5. Also I'll throw in another $2.2 for Walker, Giddens and Erden who should come aboard next year. I assume an increase in the luxury tax to $74. The team would be right on the tax threshold or barely over it. Any other additions I would then attribute to those contracts.
Year 3: $6.55
Year 4: $7.1

Total: $31.15

Eddie and Tony's contracts.

Year 1: $2.5 + $2.5 +$5.0(luxtax) = $10.0
Year 2: $2.8 + $2.7 = $5.5

Total: $15.5

Difference: $15.65  but I really wouldn't have a problem with the third year of Posey's contract so let's subtract that.
  
Total difference: $9.15

But if the team spends more this year of the MLE on someone other than Walker and they spend money equaling a vet min in year 2 that goes to meet Posey's number then I would then count those numbers against this total. That could equal as much as another $2.7.

Now my comparison is signing Posey vs not signing either of House or Allen.

Roy your numbers seem to justify the last year of Posey's contract vs the wisdom of signing Tony at all.

Both valid ways of looking at it.

And neither really takes into account the money that would be allocated to Posey in those last two years possibly being spent on someone else, which could be an upgrade over Posey.

Still my choice is if this team signed Posey and no one else or Tony and Eddie and no one else. I would have preferred Posey.

But the offseason is still young, maybe the step back won't be as big as we now view it if something else is done.

Last thing. Roy, what is now the restriction on trading either of these guys, 90 days?

i'm not sure why you guys are so hung up on luxury dollars. especially for this year. the ownership was clearly willing to go way over the cap the next couple of season when they were going to offer Posey the full MLE for three seasons.

i think Danny and Wyc, et al were all on the same page when it came to spending serious money to try and get at least one more Title out of GPA. another Title would certainly counter act any of the luxury tax penalties from a business standpoint or i don't think they would have been offering the big dough to Posey for ANY amount of years.

the decision to not offer Posey the fourth year (as we discussed at length) IMO had three main components and none of them has to do with not wanting to pay luxury tax money on his contract:

1) i think Danny thinks that he can still find someone to play well in Posey's MPG. this has to be the most important factor in letting Posey wallk from my standpoint.

2) he wants Walker and/or Giddens to be able to step in to a major role at the latest after the 2010 season (which may be NEXT season the way we are going).

3) he  believes that in 2011 we are still going to be a Title contender with at least Paul, KG and Rondo, et al and he wants to have the most cap possible to go after someone to pair with Paul and KG.

i would rather take my best shot the next few seasons and not worry so much about #3. but the wild card for me right now is Walker and Giddens. they both have the athleticism to actually - at least for the regular season - make us not worry so much about not having Pose. if we can get one of those guys to really commit to defense and rebounding, it could be at the very least really fun to watch them add some serious ups to our game.....and then let Danny keep an eye on the waiver/trade wire for the course of the season.

By far the best and only explanation for what Danny did with Posey. Nice job.

[cordobes]

Anyone know what the difference in money for next season is for TA if we just picked up his option?

Also isnt it safe to assume that at least Walker (maybe JR) will play in the D League?  What are the roster rules for that?  I can recall but Im fairly sure they do not count against the NBA roster.

Finally, I also think that either BBD or Powe will go.  I like Powe better myself just because he has better defensive rotations and is more explosive in the paint.  If BBD comes into camp with a better vert (like being able to dunk flat footed) and in better shape it will be a close competition. 

If he signed for $2.5 million as it's being reported, it's a $200.000 difference from his QO. I find this very puzzling. I'm starting to believe that Ainge grossly miscalculated the Posey situation and that this is a panic move.

Players sent to the DLeague count against the roster. Right now, we only have one roster spot open.

I think Ainge was confident the 3 year MLE would get Posey back.  So I do not think it was a gross miscalculation.  Even NO was very hesitant to pull the trigger on the 4th year until the very end.

As far as this being a panic move - it seemed to me that it was Ainges plan all along to bring TA back only if Posey left - knowing that TA was a better option to fill Posey's minutes than most other FA's (besides maybe Maggette).

If TA is healthy, he can be very productive on both ends of the floor.

Big IF though - we should have just ponied up and brought back Big Game James.

Yeps, Ainge was confident the 3 year MLE would get Posey back, but he failed. It was a gross miscalculation because Posey was the better UFA available by far, and one who would fit the team needs, and one who already knew the team.

I agree with the rest - Allen was one of the best siwngmen available. But, if we don't make further moves, he'll be a significant downgrade from Posey, particularly at certain matchups. Teams with big jump-shooters on the wings or with SFs with good post games will be dangerous. And our best defender against perimeter oriented PFs besides Garnett is Scal.

[crownsy]

  Fully recovering from his previous knee injury seemed to drastically affect his play. This might not be different.

i'll grant this as long as people grant in return that this will now be 2 years past that injury. this excuse is over if he continues to be timid. in my mind, he's as healthy body wise as he's going to get.

[fairweatherfan]

Without comparing these signings to the Posey signing that didn't happen, I'm thrilled to hear this today - nice to see a key contributor to our title run returning, and to see if Tony Allen can return to the promise he showed 2 years ago. 

Eddie gives us great hustle and energy, can hit big shots (remember, he was the one who got us the lead in Game 4, as well as hitting a few big 3s along the way) and is a positive locker room influence.  If Tony can keep up the defensive intensity, upgrade his offensive contributions from "negative" to "neutral", and drop a few more food items on his shirt for next year's DVD outtakes, this will work out well for us.

And I don't mind the 2-year contracts, this saves us from having to go through the same "revamp the entire bench" process we're dealing with this year, while still making us flexible fairly soon.

[winsomme]

The more I think about these signings the more I don't like that we didn't find a way to get Posey done. The financial prudence I still stand by and if ultimately the choice was between Posey and these two guys I would have preferred Posey.

Agreed, Nick.  I understand holding the line on Posey, I see the breakdown like this:

Fourth year of Posey's contract: $7 million (likely no luxury tax at that point)
First year of Tony's contract: $2.5 million (roughly) + $2.5m luxury tax = $5 million

In terms of actual finances, we're talking about $2 million.  Would the team have been better off to not sign Tony, keep an open roster spot if necessary, and go to a fourth year with Posey, even if he'll have diminished skills at that point?  I tend to think so.

Well, we are actually talking about a lot more than that. I'll base what i'm doing on the following figures. Interesting that hoopshype has O'Bryant's numbers at 2 yr $3.12 million which would have to be partial LLE money:

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

If we had just sign Posey to the 4 year deal that's(all values in millions of dollars):

Year 1: $5.65 + $5.65(luxtax) = $11.3   they are already in the luxtax penalty
Year 2: $6.10 + $0.10(luxtax) = $6.2   only Powe and Davis are off the books and my guess is that at least one returns at about $1.5. Also I'll throw in another $2.2 for Walker, Giddens and Erden who should come aboard next year. I assume an increase in the luxury tax to $74. The team would be right on the tax threshold or barely over it. Any other additions I would then attribute to those contracts.
Year 3: $6.55
Year 4: $7.1

Total: $31.15

Eddie and Tony's contracts.

Year 1: $2.5 + $2.5 +$5.0(luxtax) = $10.0
Year 2: $2.8 + $2.7 = $5.5

Total: $15.5

Difference: $15.65  but I really wouldn't have a problem with the third year of Posey's contract so let's subtract that.
  
Total difference: $9.15

But if the team spends more this year of the MLE on someone other than Walker and they spend money equaling a vet min in year 2 that goes to meet Posey's number then I would then count those numbers against this total. That could equal as much as another $2.7.

Now my comparison is signing Posey vs not signing either of House or Allen.

Roy your numbers seem to justify the last year of Posey's contract vs the wisdom of signing Tony at all.

Both valid ways of looking at it.

And neither really takes into account the money that would be allocated to Posey in those last two years possibly being spent on someone else, which could be an upgrade over Posey.

Still my choice is if this team signed Posey and no one else or Tony and Eddie and no one else. I would have preferred Posey.

But the offseason is still young, maybe the step back won't be as big as we now view it if something else is done.

Last thing. Roy, what is now the restriction on trading either of these guys, 90 days?

i'm not sure why you guys are so hung up on luxury dollars. especially for this year. the ownership was clearly willing to go way over the cap the next couple of season when they were going to offer Posey the full MLE for three seasons.

i think Danny and Wyc, et al were all on the same page when it came to spending serious money to try and get at least one more Title out of GPA. another Title would certainly counter act any of the luxury tax penalties from a business standpoint or i don't think they would have been offering the big dough to Posey for ANY amount of years.

the decision to not offer Posey the fourth year (as we discussed at length) IMO had three main components and none of them has to do with not wanting to pay luxury tax money on his contract:

1) i think Danny thinks that he can still find someone to play well in Posey's MPG. this has to be the most important factor in letting Posey wallk from my standpoint.

2) he wants Walker and/or Giddens to be able to step in to a major role at the latest after the 2010 season (which may be NEXT season the way we are going).

3) he  believes that in 2011 we are still going to be a Title contender with at least Paul, KG and Rondo, et al and he wants to have the most cap possible to go after someone to pair with Paul and KG.

i would rather take my best shot the next few seasons and not worry so much about #3. but the wild card for me right now is Walker and Giddens. they both have the athleticism to actually - at least for the regular season - make us not worry so much about not having Pose. if we can get one of those guys to really commit to defense and rebounding, it could be at the very least really fun to watch them add some serious ups to our game.....and then let Danny keep an eye on the waiver/trade wire for the course of the season.

By far the best and only explanation for what Danny did with Posey. Nice job.

thanks, wahz.....

you know, i would be willing to bet that even Danny knows that our chances for winning a Title were at their highest bringing back Posey...... privately i'm sure he is bummed not to have him back next season.

but i think he also has a ton of confidence in his ability to deal with the effects of losing out on Posey....and i think it is a well-founded confidence.

the bench at this point has big question marks and a lot of youth.....he must know the risks there, but i don't think he has put us in a position with no options either.

Danny likes to do his own thing. he always has since he has been here....and i guess we shouldn't expect him to stop now.

i would LOVED to have seen Posey back, but i am glad at this point we haven't thrown similar money at an inferior guy and still have some room and time to maneuver ahead.

[meesho33]

Anyone know what the difference in money for next season is for TA if we just picked up his option?

Also isnt it safe to assume that at least Walker (maybe JR) will play in the D League?  What are the roster rules for that?  I can recall but Im fairly sure they do not count against the NBA roster.

Finally, I also think that either BBD or Powe will go.  I like Powe better myself just because he has better defensive rotations and is more explosive in the paint.  If BBD comes into camp with a better vert (like being able to dunk flat footed) and in better shape it will be a close competition. 

If he signed for $2.5 million as it's being reported, it's a $200.000 difference from his QO. I find this very puzzling. I'm starting to believe that Ainge grossly miscalculated the Posey situation and that this is a panic move.

Players sent to the DLeague count against the roster. Right now, we only have one roster spot open.

I think Ainge was confident the 3 year MLE would get Posey back.  So I do not think it was a gross miscalculation.  Even NO was very hesitant to pull the trigger on the 4th year until the very end.

As far as this being a panic move - it seemed to me that it was Ainges plan all along to bring TA back only if Posey left - knowing that TA was a better option to fill Posey's minutes than most other FA's (besides maybe Maggette).

If TA is healthy, he can be very productive on both ends of the floor.

Big IF though - we should have just ponied up and brought back Big Game James.

Yeps, Ainge was confident the 3 year MLE would get Posey back, but he failed. It was a gross miscalculation because Posey was the better UFA available by far, and one who would fit the team needs, and one who already knew the team.

I agree with the rest - Allen was one of the best siwngmen available. But, if we don't make further moves, he'll be a significant downgrade from Posey, particularly at certain matchups. Teams with big jump-shooters on the wings or with SFs with good post games will be dangerous. And our best defender against perimeter oriented PFs besides Garnett is Scal.

Fair point - although, I'd like to refer to it as  a TERRIBLE DECISION rather than a gross miscalculation

We definitely should have signed Posey.

I am waiting with baited breath to see what DA does next.

[BballTim]

The more I think about these signings the more I don't like that we didn't find a way to get Posey done. The financial prudence I still stand by and if ultimately the choice was between Posey and these two guys I would have preferred Posey.

Agreed, Nick.  I understand holding the line on Posey, I see the breakdown like this:

Fourth year of Posey's contract: $7 million (likely no luxury tax at that point)
First year of Tony's contract: $2.5 million (roughly) + $2.5m luxury tax = $5 million

In terms of actual finances, we're talking about $2 million.  Would the team have been better off to not sign Tony, keep an open roster spot if necessary, and go to a fourth year with Posey, even if he'll have diminished skills at that point?  I tend to think so.

Well, we are actually talking about a lot more than that. I'll base what i'm doing on the following figures. Interesting that hoopshype has O'Bryant's numbers at 2 yr $3.12 million which would have to be partial LLE money:

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

If we had just sign Posey to the 4 year deal that's(all values in millions of dollars):

Year 1: $5.65 + $5.65(luxtax) = $11.3   they are already in the luxtax penalty
Year 2: $6.10 + $0.10(luxtax) = $6.2   only Powe and Davis are off the books and my guess is that at least one returns at about $1.5. Also I'll throw in another $2.2 for Walker, Giddens and Erden who should come aboard next year. I assume an increase in the luxury tax to $74. The team would be right on the tax threshold or barely over it. Any other additions I would then attribute to those contracts.
Year 3: $6.55
Year 4: $7.1

Total: $31.15

Eddie and Tony's contracts.

Year 1: $2.5 + $2.5 +$5.0(luxtax) = $10.0
Year 2: $2.8 + $2.7 = $5.5

Total: $15.5

Difference: $15.65  but I really wouldn't have a problem with the third year of Posey's contract so let's subtract that.
 
Total difference: $9.15

But if the team spends more this year of the MLE on someone other than Walker and they spend money equaling a vet min in year 2 that goes to meet Posey's number then I would then count those numbers against this total. That could equal as much as another $2.7.

Now my comparison is signing Posey vs not signing either of House or Allen.

Roy your numbers seem to justify the last year of Posey's contract vs the wisdom of signing Tony at all.

Both valid ways of looking at it.

And neither really takes into account the money that would be allocated to Posey in those last two years possibly being spent on someone else, which could be an upgrade over Posey.

Still my choice is if this team signed Posey and no one else or Tony and Eddie and no one else. I would have preferred Posey.

But the offseason is still young, maybe the step back won't be as big as we now view it if something else is done.

Last thing. Roy, what is now the restriction on trading either of these guys, 90 days?

i'm not sure why you guys are so hung up on luxury dollars. especially for this year. the ownership was clearly willing to go way over the cap the next couple of season when they were going to offer Posey the full MLE for three seasons.

  I don't think you're giving any thought about how the Posey signing would affect the budget for the next year or two (or 3). The fact that there were concerns about how they'd be able to pay for last pick in the first round and that they're only offering out minimum contracts so the league will pay part of them should give you a different view of whether they were concerned about the size and length of Posey's contract.