Natives take a rest... Allen, House signed, sealed almost delivered

[guava_wrench]

well it's impossible to know for sure what that figure might be, but when they gave that much money to a project like POB, it seems to me that they aren't being that tight with the purse strings....

A minimum contract for a young 7 foot lottery pick who was misused by previous team and whom they liked in workouts?

Of course he might not work out, but you seem to be overstating this. Could it be that Ainge felt he is a better match for our system and environment than Nelson's?

[timepiece33]

What are you basing your statement that Posey's fourth year won't be causing luxury tax penalty on?

An assumption that Ray Allen will take a substantial paycut to stay a Celtic OR won't be traded.

I don't believe it is that much of a stretch to say that the Posey move alone did not cause the doom and gloom of the salary cap issues some presented.   

The only way that was going to happen was with subsequent moves.  Now suggesting that we would have less flexibility with regards to the luxury tax in that year is another story.   

[winsomme]

The more I think about these signings the more I don't like that we didn't find a way to get Posey done. The financial prudence I still stand by and if ultimately the choice was between Posey and these two guys I would have preferred Posey.

Agreed, Nick.  I understand holding the line on Posey, I see the breakdown like this:

Fourth year of Posey's contract: $7 million (likely no luxury tax at that point)
First year of Tony's contract: $2.5 million (roughly) + $2.5m luxury tax = $5 million

In terms of actual finances, we're talking about $2 million.  Would the team have been better off to not sign Tony, keep an open roster spot if necessary, and go to a fourth year with Posey, even if he'll have diminished skills at that point?  I tend to think so.

Well, we are actually talking about a lot more than that. I'll base what i'm doing on the following figures. Interesting that hoopshype has O'Bryant's numbers at 2 yr $3.12 million which would have to be partial LLE money:

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

If we had just sign Posey to the 4 year deal that's(all values in millions of dollars):

Year 1: $5.65 + $5.65(luxtax) = $11.3   they are already in the luxtax penalty
Year 2: $6.10 + $0.10(luxtax) = $6.2   only Powe and Davis are off the books and my guess is that at least one returns at about $1.5. Also I'll throw in another $2.2 for Walker, Giddens and Erden who should come aboard next year. I assume an increase in the luxury tax to $74. The team would be right on the tax threshold or barely over it. Any other additions I would then attribute to those contracts.
Year 3: $6.55
Year 4: $7.1

Total: $31.15

Eddie and Tony's contracts.

Year 1: $2.5 + $2.5 +$5.0(luxtax) = $10.0
Year 2: $2.8 + $2.7 = $5.5

Total: $15.5

Difference: $15.65  but I really wouldn't have a problem with the third year of Posey's contract so let's subtract that.
 
Total difference: $9.15

But if the team spends more this year of the MLE on someone other than Walker and they spend money equaling a vet min in year 2 that goes to meet Posey's number then I would then count those numbers against this total. That could equal as much as another $2.7.

Now my comparison is signing Posey vs not signing either of House or Allen.

Roy your numbers seem to justify the last year of Posey's contract vs the wisdom of signing Tony at all.

Both valid ways of looking at it.

And neither really takes into account the money that would be allocated to Posey in those last two years possibly being spent on someone else, which could be an upgrade over Posey.

Still my choice is if this team signed Posey and no one else or Tony and Eddie and no one else. I would have preferred Posey.

But the offseason is still young, maybe the step back won't be as big as we now view it if something else is done.

Last thing. Roy, what is now the restriction on trading either of these guys, 90 days?

i'm not sure why you guys are so hung up on luxury dollars. especially for this year. the ownership was clearly willing to go way over the cap the next couple of season when they were going to offer Posey the full MLE for three seasons.

  I don't think you're giving any thought about how the Posey signing would affect the budget for the next year or two (or 3). The fact that there were concerns about how they'd be able to pay for last pick in the first round and that they're only offering out minimum contracts so the league will pay part of them should give you a different view of whether they were concerned about the size and length of Posey's contract.

well it's just my opinion, but i don't think money is the reason that Giddens isn't signed yet.....i think Danny wanted to know about Posey first and leaving JR unsigned - like Jeff pointed out the other day - could indicate that he was even part of possible trade discussions...

heck maybe he still is....i really don't know what Danny is up to right now. i just hope that he brings in the kids because i am kinda excited to see how good they are....

also, don't forget about BBD and Pruitt. signing guys to one or two year deals allows Danny to keep them in the plans for the short term if they are able to step their games up quickly...

it's like the discussion of Lugo......once we signed him the argument  was often: well i would rather them play someone else at short, but we got the guy for 4 years at big money so we have to play him....

i don't think Danny wants to be in that position where he has a young ready to play but feels like he can't play him because he already has someone at that spot with a long contract...

i think that was one of the reasons he only really wanted to give Posey a 2 year deal. i think he is really high on his picks...

  If all of the reports of the Celtics being frugal with their spending or Ainge's own comments won't convince you than nothing I say will. But I can't imagine Danny let Posey walk because he was concerned that Posey's presence on the roster in 3 years would hurt the development of a player that hasn't even performed in an exhibition game yet.

frugal?  they offered Posey three years at the full MLE.....

[nickagneta]

BTW, don't you feel that when discussing contracts and dollar values of those contracts that it would be wise to discuss the luxury tax and their effect at looking at a contract from the proper fiscal perspective.

I do.

If you are at the luxury tax level and someone signs a contract, that contract, for that year, should, IMHO, by viewed with the additional penalty monies that that contract created.

So, when Roy brought up looking at Posey's year 4 vs the Allen contract, I think it is fair to note that Posey's fourth year will probably not be causing luxury tax penalties whereas at least the first year of Tony's contract would.

I think that is a very fair way of looking at things.

  What are you basing your statement that Posey's fourth year won't be causing luxury tax penalty on?

The fact that at this time it and KG's last year would be the only 2 contracts guaranteed for that year and every other contract signed thereafter would still be building towards the luxury tax.

For me the contract(s) that should be viewed as the ones that the luxury tax payment should be attributed to are the ones most recently signed. Example: Tony and Eddie's contracts are attributable to the luxury tax this year because we are already over the threshold, hence both their salaries should be looked at as taxed 100% because we are in the penalty. Next year however with all contracts currently signed the Celtics are still under the tax threshold and Tony and Eddie's contracts would therefore not be viewed as attributable for the tax penalty. It will be the contract that eventually puts the team over the threshold and every other contract after that that will be taxed..

Just my way of looking at things.

[winsomme]

well it's impossible to know for sure what that figure might be, but when they gave that much money to a project like POB, it seems to me that they aren't being that tight with the purse strings....

A minimum contract for a young 7 foot lottery pick who was misused by previous team and whom they liked in workouts?

Of course he might not work out, but you seem to be overstating this. Could it be that Ainge felt he is a better match for our system and environment than Nelson's?

i'm not down on POB. i actually like the signing from a basketball standpoint.  but i think it is evidence that the ownership is still very willing to spend money when we are going to be well over the luxury cap...

[WW1MR]

First, I hated losing Posey as much as the next guy. However I feel better today, having signed TA and House, than I did yesterday when we had already lost Posey and hadn't signed ANYONE besides Patrick O'Bryant.

I was about to post our current lineup, but Silvershamrocker beat me to it:

Rondo/House/Pruitt
Allen/Allen/Giddens
Pierce/Walker/Scal
Garnett/Powe/Davis
Perk/O'Bryant

So my question is where do we go from here. I also agree with shamrocker that we need a better true center off the bench behind Perk and ahead of POB. I really would like Kurt Thomas. How much $ is he going to command? Would he sign for 1 or 2 years? I've heard Francisco Elson's name bantered about, but I don't know much about him.

Question number two: is there anyone here on CelticsBlog who can research how much money we really spent on POB, TA, and House? Can was come up with a reasonable prediction of how much of the MLE, LLE, Vet. min. we have left to spend? Reports here on CelticsBlog have been conflicting and I don't know what to believe.

We've got 14 guys on the roster, 13 if Walker goes to Europe. I don't know if I really want him rehabbing his knee over there and playing for another team, but I remember reading somewhere that the C's were encouraging that option.

I we only one space, I'd say fill the center spot. I believe we are set at the 4, 2, and though I know people will disagree with me, the 3. I know that PP gets most of the minutes there and I think his backup can be filled by a committee of Scal, Walker, and TA when we go small. (IMO TA was signed to replace Posey's defensive role and WILL take some of his minutes.)

That leaves point gaurd. Rondo and House mostly cover it... will have to cover it if we keep B. Walker here and use the last spot on a center. I haven't seen enough of Pruitt to form an opinion, but I wouldn't count on much production from him and would be nervous with him as the 2nd string backup if Rondo went down. If Walker plays overseas I think we should use that last spot on a veteran point. And I'd rather have Cassell over signing Stephon Marbury.

And of course we could always try to swing a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trade...

I'll offer up a couple TP's for anyone who can tell me how much $ we have left to spend and back it up with cited figures for how much $ we've spent on FA's so far...

[Mr October]

I like the House and TA signings. Good $$, good length of contract. And then there is still some dough to get one more piece.

I'm really glad to see House back. I love his game, energy.
I would have liked to see TA upgraded to Ross though. Oh well. We're not talking about starter minutes here.

[BballTim]

 

If all of the reports of the Celtics being frugal with their spending or Ainge's own comments won't convince you than nothing I say will. But I can't imagine Danny let Posey walk because he was concerned that Posey's presence on the roster in 3 years would hurt the development of a player that hasn't even performed in an exhibition game yet.

frugal?  they offered Posey three years at the full MLE.....

  I guess that's the only thing we should be looking at. The fact that they were willing to go overbudget for Posey means that they have no budget constraints and aren't at all concerned about paying the luxury tax.

[winsomme]

 

If all of the reports of the Celtics being frugal with their spending or Ainge's own comments won't convince you than nothing I say will. But I can't imagine Danny let Posey walk because he was concerned that Posey's presence on the roster in 3 years would hurt the development of a player that hasn't even performed in an exhibition game yet.

frugal?  they offered Posey three years at the full MLE.....

  I guess that's the only thing we should be looking at. The fact that they were willing to go overbudget for Posey means that they have no budget constraints and aren't at all concerned about paying the luxury tax.

well there's only so many ways that they can spend their money at this point....and to me they keep stepping to the plate.

i'm sure there is some figure that they can't surpass, but it doesn't seem like it is the limiting factor at this point.

i mean, i'm just guessing. i don't know for sure....but that's just the way it seems to me....