Natives take a rest... Allen, House signed, sealed almost delivered

[NothinButNet]

Everyone get over Posey.  He's a clutch player.  He's was clutch for us down the stretch because he'd been there before.  Guess what.  Now GPA have been there too.  We're going to have all the clutch we need right there.

[Cman]

Regarding that "last spot" that the Cs have available (assuming both Walker and Giddens get signed), I don't expect Danny to sign anyone soon.  I expect him to wait until mid August or so and then troll through the left overs to see if he can get a bargain.  Obviously SF or C would be a great addition at that point, but knowing Danny, I wouldn't rule anything out.  

On the Tony Allen signing -- I agree with some here on the board that Tony Allen isn't just replacing Tony Allen in the lineup -- he is replacing Posey.  Like it or not (I view it as a downgrade, but not a really bad one) Tony Allen will get 6th man minutes this upcoming year.  I think the hope is that Giddens or Walker can slip into this role in the next couple of years.

[Jon]

While I obviously don't know what's going on behind the scenes, that seems like an awful lot of money for both of them.  It didn't seem like either of them were generating much interest from anyone.  I wonder in some ways if this is another example of Ainge bidding against himself, like he did with Scalabrine. 

On top of that, I don't really see the point.  Tony Allen seems like he's probably marginally better than Giddens; is that worth over 2 million dollars and an roster spot?  House had some good games in the playoffs, but he also had some really bad ones too.  With the exception of a couple games in the Finals, most of the reason people thought House looked good was because Cassell looked so bad.  The bigger problem is that this used up part of the MLE.  I would have much rather have had someone else at the minimum than House at part of the MLE. 

Hopefully Ainge has something else up his sleeve. 

[silvershamrocker]

Rondo/House/Pruitt
Allen/Allen/Giddens
Pierce/Walker/Scal
Garnett/Powe/Davis
Perk/O'Bryant

 

We're missing our two most important players from our championship bench: Posey and PJ, and they haven't really been replaced. We are also alot younger; the only vets we have are the Big Three, Scal, and House. We won't be a vet team anymore.

So what do we do with the rest of the MLE? We have a little more than 3 million left. Should we go after a big? (Kurt Thomas or Francisco Elson are the only ones that I would want.) Or another wing? (the selection is pitiful)

And then there's the point situation. We have 4 shooting guards (RA, TA, EH, JRG) and only one point (I love Eddie but he's not a point guard  ).

We do not have a championship level bench right now. Maybe Ainge is planning on a trade. I sure hope so.

[nickagneta]

The more I think about these signings the more I don't like that we didn't find a way to get Posey done. The financial prudence I still stand by and if ultimately the choice was between Posey and these two guys I would have preferred Posey.

Agreed, Nick.  I understand holding the line on Posey, I see the breakdown like this:

Fourth year of Posey's contract: $7 million (likely no luxury tax at that point)
First year of Tony's contract: $2.5 million (roughly) + $2.5m luxury tax = $5 million

In terms of actual finances, we're talking about $2 million.  Would the team have been better off to not sign Tony, keep an open roster spot if necessary, and go to a fourth year with Posey, even if he'll have diminished skills at that point?  I tend to think so.

Well, we are actually talking about a lot more than that. I'll base what i'm doing on the following figures. Interesting that hoopshype has O'Bryant's numbers at 2 yr $3.12 million which would have to be partial LLE money:

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

If we had just sign Posey to the 4 year deal that's(all values in millions of dollars):

Year 1: $5.65 + $5.65(luxtax) = $11.3   they are already in the luxtax penalty
Year 2: $6.10 + $0.10(luxtax) = $6.2   only Powe and Davis are off the books and my guess is that at least one returns at about $1.5. Also I'll throw in another $2.2 for Walker, Giddens and Erden who should come aboard next year. I assume an increase in the luxury tax to $74. The team would be right on the tax threshold or barely over it. Any other additions I would then attribute to those contracts.
Year 3: $6.55
Year 4: $7.1

Total: $31.15

Eddie and Tony's contracts.

Year 1: $2.5 + $2.5 +$5.0(luxtax) = $10.0
Year 2: $2.8 + $2.7 = $5.5

Total: $15.5

Difference: $15.65  but I really wouldn't have a problem with the third year of Posey's contract so let's subtract that.
  
Total difference: $9.15

But if the team spends more this year of the MLE on someone other than Walker and they spend money equaling a vet min in year 2 that goes to meet Posey's number then I would then count those numbers against this total. That could equal as much as another $2.7.

Now my comparison is signing Posey vs not signing either of House or Allen.

Roy your numbers seem to justify the last year of Posey's contract vs the wisdom of signing Tony at all.

Both valid ways of looking at it.

And neither really takes into account the money that would be allocated to Posey in those last two years possibly being spent on someone else, which could be an upgrade over Posey.

Still my choice is if this team signed Posey and no one else or Tony and Eddie and no one else. I would have preferred Posey.

But the offseason is still young, maybe the step back won't be as big as we now view it if something else is done.

Last thing. Roy, what is now the restriction on trading either of these guys, 90 days?

[quikblink]

Anyone know what the difference in money for next season is for TA if we just picked up his option?

Also isnt it safe to assume that at least Walker (maybe JR) will play in the D League?  What are the roster rules for that?  I can recall but Im fairly sure they do not count against the NBA roster.

Finally, I also think that either BBD or Powe will go.  I like Powe better myself just because he has better defensive rotations and is more explosive in the paint.  If BBD comes into camp with a better vert (like being able to dunk flat footed) and in better shape it will be a close competition. 

[winsomme]

Is this our team to start the season?

I sure hope not.

P.J. --> O'Bryant = Downgrade
Posey --> Bill Walker = Downgrade
Tony --> Tony = No Change
House --> House = No Change

That hurts.  We'll see some sort of contribution from Giddens, and some of our young guys (Rondo, BBD, maybe Perk) can be expected to improve.  On the other hand, the "big three" is getting older, as well, so it's possible that their skills slip slightly.

My thought was that if you losed Posey, you needed to upgrade the team elsewhere.  We haven't done that.

i actually am glad about Eddie and TA coming back. i think TA is going to be more of a factor next year with a year of recovery under his belt.

i also think POB is replacing Pollard and not PJ....and i think he will be a pleasant surprise.

and i think that there is a good chance that PJ makes another late season jump back into the game....and even if he doesn't, i think we will have other options to bolster the front court if needed.

the only question for me is (and has been) the Posey spot.

personally i would like to see Giddens and Walker take a run at it and then see what happens.

the other possibility is a trade, but i'd also like to wait on that too....

[wahz]

While we do need to get over Posey, the problem losing him is exactly this: we can go 82-0 but there will come playoff games that we must win and they only way to win will be to have the KG, Ray and PP healthy and on the court with complimentary, clutch players. Posey was the perfect fit on the floor with them and also a great back up to PP and the perfect guy at the 4 when Kevin was at the 5.

He is gone. With Ta and House back it seems obvious there are two ways to go. We can get another 5, so that Kevin NEVER plays the 5. I mean NEVER. This would mean we almost never or never go small. Perk, Obryant, and the new 5 always in. Or we get a Posey clone, a guy who we think can genuinely defend the 3 and 4. Forget about the clutch shooting, you can't get both. I don't know if there is anyone like that but if there is go with that.

I don't think we need another guard or wing. With House there and Priutt unless you think pruitt is hoepless, you have enough guards. Unless you think TA can't be back up defender to PP, we have enough wings when you include the rookies.

I go with finding a great defender at the 4 who can also "guard" Lebron, and Kobe. We then rely on Obryant to be able to play a solid 12 a game, Powe and Baby to improve more, and TA to improve at least one notch. Then we are ok. Might be able to pick up a wing shooter in late Feb. its a decent plan.

[cordobes]

Anyone know what the difference in money for next season is for TA if we just picked up his option?

Also isnt it safe to assume that at least Walker (maybe JR) will play in the D League?  What are the roster rules for that?  I can recall but Im fairly sure they do not count against the NBA roster.

Finally, I also think that either BBD or Powe will go.  I like Powe better myself just because he has better defensive rotations and is more explosive in the paint.  If BBD comes into camp with a better vert (like being able to dunk flat footed) and in better shape it will be a close competition. 

If he signed for $2.5 million as it's being reported, it's a $200.000 difference from his QO. I find this very puzzling. I'm starting to believe that Ainge grossly miscalculated the Posey situation and that this is a panic move.

Players sent to the DLeague count against the roster. Right now, we only have one roster spot open.

[td450]

I think he is better than Posey defensively and offensively.

Tony Allen? Heh... I believe that Ainge could have signed Potsie and some people would say that he's better than Posey. (just joking, td450, you are entitled to your opinion, even if it's a quite disturbing one, from my point of view)

As I stated, Tony Allen has none of the poise that Posey has, and that is a huge factor, especially with a role player. Posey gives you a couple of things offensively, and he has the intelligence and confidence to stand up and make those plays when they are most needed. However, let's not kid ourselves. Posey is not a guy who gives you a lot offensively on average, and while he is very versatile defensively, he isn't always as good as his reputation. He's great covering some guys, and average covering others.

Tony is an incredible athlete and extremely strong for his size. He's much more talented offensively than Posey, and can move his feet in a way Posey can't. The single hardest thing to find in the league is someone who can keep in front of the more explosive penetrators in the league, and Tony is one of the few guys who can make an impact there. So I stand by my statement. If we can get him back in the frame of mind he was before his injury, Allen should become a better player for the C's than Posey was.

[winsomme]

The more I think about these signings the more I don't like that we didn't find a way to get Posey done. The financial prudence I still stand by and if ultimately the choice was between Posey and these two guys I would have preferred Posey.

Agreed, Nick.  I understand holding the line on Posey, I see the breakdown like this:

Fourth year of Posey's contract: $7 million (likely no luxury tax at that point)
First year of Tony's contract: $2.5 million (roughly) + $2.5m luxury tax = $5 million

In terms of actual finances, we're talking about $2 million.  Would the team have been better off to not sign Tony, keep an open roster spot if necessary, and go to a fourth year with Posey, even if he'll have diminished skills at that point?  I tend to think so.

Well, we are actually talking about a lot more than that. I'll base what i'm doing on the following figures. Interesting that hoopshype has O'Bryant's numbers at 2 yr $3.12 million which would have to be partial LLE money:

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

If we had just sign Posey to the 4 year deal that's(all values in millions of dollars):

Year 1: $5.65 + $5.65(luxtax) = $11.3   they are already in the luxtax penalty
Year 2: $6.10 + $0.10(luxtax) = $6.2   only Powe and Davis are off the books and my guess is that at least one returns at about $1.5. Also I'll throw in another $2.2 for Walker, Giddens and Erden who should come aboard next year. I assume an increase in the luxury tax to $74. The team would be right on the tax threshold or barely over it. Any other additions I would then attribute to those contracts.
Year 3: $6.55
Year 4: $7.1

Total: $31.15

Eddie and Tony's contracts.

Year 1: $2.5 + $2.5 +$5.0(luxtax) = $10.0
Year 2: $2.8 + $2.7 = $5.5

Total: $15.5

Difference: $15.65  but I really wouldn't have a problem with the third year of Posey's contract so let's subtract that.
  
Total difference: $9.15

But if the team spends more this year of the MLE on someone other than Walker and they spend money equaling a vet min in year 2 that goes to meet Posey's number then I would then count those numbers against this total. That could equal as much as another $2.7.

Now my comparison is signing Posey vs not signing either of House or Allen.

Roy your numbers seem to justify the last year of Posey's contract vs the wisdom of signing Tony at all.

Both valid ways of looking at it.

And neither really takes into account the money that would be allocated to Posey in those last two years possibly being spent on someone else, which could be an upgrade over Posey.

Still my choice is if this team signed Posey and no one else or Tony and Eddie and no one else. I would have preferred Posey.

But the offseason is still young, maybe the step back won't be as big as we now view it if something else is done.

Last thing. Roy, what is now the restriction on trading either of these guys, 90 days?

i'm not sure why you guys are so hung up on luxury dollars. especially for this year. the ownership was clearly willing to go way over the cap the next couple of season when they were going to offer Posey the full MLE for three seasons.

i think Danny and Wyc, et al were all on the same page when it came to spending serious money to try and get at least one more Title out of GPA. another Title would certainly counter act any of the luxury tax penalties from a business standpoint or i don't think they would have been offering the big dough to Posey for ANY amount of years.

the decision to not offer Posey the fourth year (as we discussed at length) IMO had three main components and none of them has to do with not wanting to pay luxury tax money on his contract:

1) i think Danny thinks that he can still find someone to play well in Posey's MPG. this has to be the most important factor in letting Posey wallk from my standpoint.

2) he wants Walker and/or Giddens to be able to step in to a major role at the latest after the 2010 season (which may be NEXT season the way we are going).

3) he  believes that in 2011 we are still going to be a Title contender with at least Paul, KG and Rondo, et al and he wants to have the most cap possible to go after someone to pair with Paul and KG.

i would rather take my best shot the next few seasons and not worry so much about #3. but the wild card for me right now is Walker and Giddens. they both have the athleticism to actually - at least for the regular season - make us not worry so much about not having Pose. if we can get one of those guys to really commit to defense and rebounding, it could be at the very least really fun to watch them add some serious ups to our game.....and then let Danny keep an eye on the waiver/trade wire for the course of the season.

[wahz]

Is this our team to start the season?

I sure hope not.

P.J. --> O'Bryant = Downgrade
Posey --> Bill Walker = Downgrade
Tony --> Tony = No Change
House --> House = No Change

That hurts.  We'll see some sort of contribution from Giddens, and some of our young guys (Rondo, BBD, maybe Perk) can be expected to improve.  On the other hand, the "big three" is getting older, as well, so it's possible that their skills slip slightly.

My thought was that if you losed Posey, you needed to upgrade the team elsewhere.  We haven't done that.

1.Assuming that KG, Cliff Ray and Powe's work ethic rub off on O'bryant, he will not be a downgrade over the course of the season.

2.Powe, Baby, Rajon, and Perk can all be expected to be better, and certainly cumulatively should be better.

3.Tony Allen will be healthier. That will be an improvement there too. Apparently Danny and Doc feel TA deserves another full year evaluation, and this buys the rookie wings some time to grow.

4. The big three will have played together for a full year. My guess is that this is the year they will play their best ball together.

 Having said all that, when it comes to clutch playoff time, and it will, we have a significant net downgrade so far. Can OBryant be clucth in the playoffs? Of course we can't count on that. My plan would be to add another 5, so that KG is always at the 4, and then plan on adding another shooter in February. You could do the opposite and add a guy who can defend the 4 and 3 now and then add a 5 in February.


 

[Jon]

Is this our team to start the season?

I sure hope not.

P.J. --> O'Bryant = Downgrade
Posey --> Bill Walker = Downgrade
Tony --> Tony = No Change
House --> House = No Change

That hurts.  We'll see some sort of contribution from Giddens, and some of our young guys (Rondo, BBD, maybe Perk) can be expected to improve.  On the other hand, the "big three" is getting older, as well, so it's possible that their skills slip slightly.

My thought was that if you losed Posey, you needed to upgrade the team elsewhere.  We haven't done that.

1.Assuming that KG, Cliff Ray and Powe's work ethic rub off on O'bryant, he will not be a downgrade over the course of the season.

2.Powe, Baby, Rajon, and Perk can all be expected to be better, and certainly cumulatively should be better.

3.Tony Allen will be healthier. That will be an improvement there too. Apparently Danny and Doc feel TA deserves another full year evaluation, and this buys the rookie wings some time to grow.

4. The big three will have played together for a full year. My guess is that this is the year they will play their best ball together.

 Having said all that, when it comes to clutch playoff time, and it will, we have a significant net downgrade so far. Can OBryant be clucth in the playoffs? Of course we can't count on that. My plan would be to add another 5, so that KG is always at the 4, and then plan on adding another shooter in February. You could do the opposite and add a guy who can defend the 4 and 3 now and then add a 5 in February.


 

When was Allen's injury really affecting him last year?  Unless part of his injury included the tendency to dribble the ball off his foot and that's somehow going to be cured this season, I don't expect much improvement from Tony Allen.  However, it does look like he's going to get more PT, so his stats will inevitably go up. 

O'Bryant might be an OK P.J. replacement.  He also might not.  I don't like taking risks like that when the Big Three only have so much left in their tank.

As for House, the big problem with him is this:

House--> House and 1/2 the MLE burned = Downgrade

[celts55]

First off, I like resigning House. The guy played hard and gives them a shooter off the bench. I remember people chanting Eddie's name in game 7 agains't Cleveland when he was diving after a lose ball. And ahile he's not a true point, as long as he's not beoing pressed, I think he can get the jon done. I also think Pruitt will be given a shot and Rondo will be playinf a fair amount of minutes.

As for Allen, I'm not so sure. He didn't get much run in the playoff even when there were a few injuries, but I figure Danny and Doc see him a lot more than I do, so I'll give him the benifit of the doubt. I'm assuming that he has shown them that he is healthier and and contribute more this year. I can't imagine any other reason they would have resigned him, so I'll out my trust in Danny and hope he's seeing something I'm not.

[BballTim]

The more I think about these signings the more I don't like that we didn't find a way to get Posey done. The financial prudence I still stand by and if ultimately the choice was between Posey and these two guys I would have preferred Posey.

Agreed, Nick.  I understand holding the line on Posey, I see the breakdown like this:

Fourth year of Posey's contract: $7 million (likely no luxury tax at that point)
First year of Tony's contract: $2.5 million (roughly) + $2.5m luxury tax = $5 million

In terms of actual finances, we're talking about $2 million.  Would the team have been better off to not sign Tony, keep an open roster spot if necessary, and go to a fourth year with Posey, even if he'll have diminished skills at that point?  I tend to think so.

Well, we are actually talking about a lot more than that. I'll base what i'm doing on the following figures. Interesting that hoopshype has O'Bryant's numbers at 2 yr $3.12 million which would have to be partial LLE money:

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

If we had just sign Posey to the 4 year deal that's(all values in millions of dollars):

Year 1: $5.65 + $5.65(luxtax) = $11.3   they are already in the luxtax penalty
Year 2: $6.10 + $0.10(luxtax) = $6.2   only Powe and Davis are off the books and my guess is that at least one returns at about $1.5. Also I'll throw in another $2.2 for Walker, Giddens and Erden who should come aboard next year. I assume an increase in the luxury tax to $74. The team would be right on the tax threshold or barely over it. Any other additions I would then attribute to those contracts.
Year 3: $6.55
Year 4: $7.1

Total: $31.15

Eddie and Tony's contracts.

Year 1: $2.5 + $2.5 +$5.0(luxtax) = $10.0
Year 2: $2.8 + $2.7 = $5.5

Total: $15.5

Difference: $15.65

  Throw in the fact that if you don't sign Eddie you have to sign another backup pg and you're probably around $18M. Not exactly nickels and dimes