Time for a change?

[keevsnick]

So a couple thoughts on the proposed deal:

1) I don't buy at all that the Bucks would be looking to keep Jaylen. I get they don't have their picks moving forward, but they were below .500 last year even when Giannis actually played. They aren't going to magically be better subbing in a worse player in the Giannis minutes, and without their picks they have no real way of improving. Meanwhile Jaylen's trade value will never be higher than it is right now coming off a healthy all-NBA season. They have to trade him.

I do think MIL will be better next year with Jaylen than they were last year with Giannis. That MIL team underachieved last year even when Giannis was fit and available. They should have been a 45 win team.

MIL will also get extra contributions from Bobby Portis who will see extra minutes with Giannis gone. He is their 3rd/4th best player. Kuzma will also play better with Jaylen than he did with Giannis because Giannis' inability to shoot jump-shots over-exposed Kuzma's mediocre jumper. He will be less exposed with Jaylen. So their forward rotation will be more effective with the lesser player Jaylen.

Even if you think they underachieved last year I just don't see keeping Jaylen making any sense. The team has 1 other guy (Turner) who is a league average starter at their position. Your ceiling is .500 for a year or two until Jaylen demands a trade. If Giannis with his 13 years of loyalty wasn't willing to stick around, I doubt Jaylen is going to want to be there long term. Better to trade him now when he has 3 years then when he has 1 or 2 left on his deal.

This reminds me of the Holiday/Lillard trade. Portland traded a better player (Lillard) for a worse but still very valuable one (Holiday) + extra assets (draft picks) then flipped Holiday again for more assets. That's what The Bucks will do, floating "We MIGHT keep Brown" is just posturing to avoid losing leverage in the future Brown trade talks. He'll get flipped to Portland, Atlanta, San Antonio or maybe even Miami.

[Goldstar88]

League sources say the Bucks want to remain competitive next season. They don?t outright own any of their firsts until 2031, and even if they did, the flattened draft odds don?t incentivize teams to bottom out. And the best player on the table is, by far, Jaylen Brown.
Yahoo! Sports

[Who]

On the lesser player Jaylen,

I don't think Giannis could have gotten last year's Celtics team to 56 wins. Even if he was healthy enough to play the same number of games as Jaylen did (which Giannis has only done 1 time in the last 7 years).

I think Jaylen is undervalued as a team player. And I think the importance of his shooting versus the non-shooting of Giannis is undervalued as well.

--------------

Could Giannis have combined with wing players like Hugo & J Walsh who have dodgy jump-shots? Well he couldn't with Kuzma so I doubt he could here.

Could Giannis have combined with a non-shooting rim runner like Queta? Well he never has before. He has played the last several years with floor spacing bigs. The last rim runners he had were in his earlier years when his teams consistently underachieved.

[Who]

League sources say the Bucks want to remain competitive next season. They don?t outright own any of their firsts until 2031, and even if they did, the flattened draft odds don?t incentivize teams to bottom out. And the best player on the table is, by far, Jaylen Brown.
Yahoo! Sports

Yeah, I see no value in rebuilding when you don't own your picks. I'd be pro-rebuilding for MIL if they had their picks but they don't.

[celticinorlando]

On the lesser player Jaylen,

I don't think Giannis could have gotten last year's Celtics team to 56 wins. Even if he was healthy enough to play the same number of games as Jaylen did (which Giannis has only done 1 time in the last 7 years).

I think Jaylen is undervalued as a team player. And I think the importance of his shooting versus the non-shooting of Giannis is undervalued as well.

I think you can count on Giannis in the playoffs a bit more tho. 27 and 12 a game he has averaged compared to to 20 and 6 for JB...plus JB seems to turn it over a ton in the playoffs

[keevsnick]

League sources say the Bucks want to remain competitive next season. They don?t outright own any of their firsts until 2031, and even if they did, the flattened draft odds don?t incentivize teams to bottom out. And the best player on the table is, by far, Jaylen Brown.
Yahoo! Sports

Yeah, I see no value in rebuilding when you don't own your picks. I'd be pro-rebuilding for MIL if they had their picks but they don't.

Whether you own your picks or not is only PART of the equation. If the question is "be .500 with Jaylen Brown" for a few seasons then rebuild anyway vs start a rebuild with the assets you get for Brown I think the obvious choice is flip Brown.

It would be different if Milwaukee ha a good vet core and you could dream on winning a round in the playoffs, but this team is just awful. There's nothing there.

Again, they are going to have to rebuild one way or another. The choice is A) start now with more assets or B) be mediocre for a few years then start with fewer assets.

[smicker16]

Heat Central: All I?ll say to you Greeny, if the Milwaukee Bucks go with the Celtics offer, Jaylen Brown will be in Milwaukee. @ShamsCharania says Jaylen Brown will be staying in MIL after a Giannis trade.

ShamsCharania I want to make this clear, whichever deal occurs, it?s going to be a one for one deal. It?s going to consist of MIL and one of these two teams. There?s no 3rd and 4th teams.

I would rather involve a 3rd team in this if it meant keeping Hugo. It seems the premise here is that it'd be just MIL-BOS, but the C's would also have to give up #27 and Hugo. Ultimately I'm fine giving up #27 and another asset like Hauser or Walsh, but not Hugo or Baylor.

If the deal could be Brown, #27, Scheierman for Giannis (maybe with Hauser and Portis or Kuzma thrown in), I do that deal.  Sheierman is a nice player but not someone to stop you from getting Giannis.

Depends what other moves are made. I do like the idea of adding Portis in the deal if possible, maybe Jaylen, Hauser + picks for Giannis and Portis. I just really don't want to give up Hugo or Baylor. But in that scenario, I might be okay with Baylor. Not Hugo. Although I don't even want to trade for Giannis but it seems we're getting there, there is a ton of smoke at this point

If the Celtics need to give up both Hugo and Baylor in a package to get Giannis you make the trade. The guy is a top 5 player in the NBA. What are we talking about lol

For me it depends if we have to include Hugo and 2+ picks. We get rid of any real assets to trade in the future at that point so it will become much tougher to improve the team.

[Who]

League sources say the Bucks want to remain competitive next season. They don?t outright own any of their firsts until 2031, and even if they did, the flattened draft odds don?t incentivize teams to bottom out. And the best player on the table is, by far, Jaylen Brown.
Yahoo! Sports

Yeah, I see no value in rebuilding when you don't own your picks. I'd be pro-rebuilding for MIL if they had their picks but they don't.

Whether you own your picks or not is only PART of the equation. If the question is "be .500 with Jaylen Brown" for a few seasons then rebuild anyway vs start a rebuild with the assets you get for Brown I think the obvious choice is flip Brown.

It would be different if Milwaukee ha a good vet core and you could dream on winning a round in the playoffs, but this team is just awful. There's nothing there.

Again, they are going to have to rebuild one way or another. The choice is A) start now with more assets or B) be mediocre for a few years then start with fewer assets.

That is a good point.

[keevsnick]

Heat Central: All I?ll say to you Greeny, if the Milwaukee Bucks go with the Celtics offer, Jaylen Brown will be in Milwaukee. @ShamsCharania says Jaylen Brown will be staying in MIL after a Giannis trade.

ShamsCharania I want to make this clear, whichever deal occurs, it?s going to be a one for one deal. It?s going to consist of MIL and one of these two teams. There?s no 3rd and 4th teams.

I would rather involve a 3rd team in this if it meant keeping Hugo. It seems the premise here is that it'd be just MIL-BOS, but the C's would also have to give up #27 and Hugo. Ultimately I'm fine giving up #27 and another asset like Hauser or Walsh, but not Hugo or Baylor.

If the deal could be Brown, #27, Scheierman for Giannis (maybe with Hauser and Portis or Kuzma thrown in), I do that deal.  Sheierman is a nice player but not someone to stop you from getting Giannis.

Depends what other moves are made. I do like the idea of adding Portis in the deal if possible, maybe Jaylen, Hauser + picks for Giannis and Portis. I just really don't want to give up Hugo or Baylor. But in that scenario, I might be okay with Baylor. Not Hugo. Although I don't even want to trade for Giannis but it seems we're getting there, there is a ton of smoke at this point

If the Celtics need to give up both Hugo and Baylor in a package to get Giannis you make the trade. The guy is a top 5 player in the NBA. What are we talking about lol

For me it depends if we have to include Hugo and 2+ picks. We get rid of any real assets to trade in the future at that point so it will become much tougher to improve the team.

Ya the "Giannis is a top 5 player" bit only goes so far. You do it straight up for Jaylen obviously, you do it for Jaylen + Hugo certainly, Jaylen+ Hugo + #27 sure. But what if the deal is Jaylen + Hugo + #27 +firsts in 2031 and 2033? Like at some point there is a tipping point where Jaylen + stuff becomes a better option than JUST Giannis.

[keevsnick]

I do have to say replacing the analytics darling Hugo Gonzalez with a player the analytics absolutely DESPISE in Kyle Kuzma would hurt a lot. I hope they find a way to keep Hugo.

[Celtics2021]

I do have to say replacing the analytics darling Hugo Gonzalez with a player the analytics absolutely DESPISE in Kyle Kuzma would hurt a lot. I hope they find a way to keep Hugo.

And at the cost of $17 million in tax/apron space.  Ugh no, that would nix a deal for me.

[Roy H.]

League sources say the Bucks want to remain competitive next season. They don?t outright own any of their firsts until 2031, and even if they did, the flattened draft odds don?t incentivize teams to bottom out. And the best player on the table is, by far, Jaylen Brown.
Yahoo! Sports

I mean, if this is true, then the Celtics are clearly in the driver's seat.  Nobody else is offering close to a top-15 player that I'm aware of.

That said, there's so much Boston momentum at this point that it almost seems like it's being put out there by the Bucks to get Miami (and potentially Minnesota) to up their offers. 

[Donoghus]

I do have to say replacing the analytics darling Hugo Gonzalez with a player the analytics absolutely DESPISE in Kyle Kuzma would hurt a lot. I hope they find a way to keep Hugo.

Same. There's a lot there to like about the kid.  I'd like to see him grow as a Celtic.

[keevsnick]

One more thought:

I don't buy for a second that it's over, one way or another. The momentum feels like it's on Boston's side but all these leaks about "we might keep Brown" or "Kuzma has to go" or "we like Hugo" or "the Bucks are considering both options and it will be a two team trade" feel very much like they're coming from the Buck's front office in an attempt to get one side or the other to give up just a little more value.

Boston can make an offer the Heat can't beat, but it does feel like the Heat are more desperate so always a possibility they are just willing to go slightly farther.

[Vermont Green]

Ya the "Giannis is a top 5 player" bit only goes so far. You do it straight up for Jaylen obviously, you do it for Jaylen + Hugo certainly, Jaylen+ Hugo + #27 sure. But what if the deal is Jaylen + Hugo + #27 +firsts in 2031 and 2033? Like at some point there is a tipping point where Jaylen + stuff becomes a better option than JUST Giannis.

This is correct obviously.  Say the deal is Brown + Hugo for Giannis, as you suggest.  That is a whole lot different than Brown, Hauser, Hugo, Picks for Giannis and Kuzma.

I think there are packages that could make sense including Hugo and packages that would not make sense.

And I agree on the discussion around Kuzma, he is a negative asset.  Including Portis is a little different, but I don't see Kuzma as value.  I see it as MIL dumping salary, which could potentially be OK for BOS, it all depends on the rest of the deal.