NBA Free Agency 2024

[Who]

Tommy Beer @TommyBeer

Not surprising b/c we know how Danny Ainge operates, but Utah has purportedly turned down offers that include two first-round picks in exchange for Walker Kessler, per @IanBegley

Evan Sidery @esidery

Tyus Jones, the top available free agent point guard, is highly unlikely to return to the Wizards. Washington is working through sign-and-trade possibilities as they will now prioritize Jordan Poole and Bub Carrington in their backcourt. A resolution could be reached this week.

[Vermont Green]

Tommy Beer @TommyBeer

Not surprising b/c we know how Danny Ainge operates, but Utah has purportedly turned down offers that include two first-round picks in exchange for Walker Kessler, per @IanBegley

Isn't Kessler pretty good?  I know he isn't 2 firsts good, but why would Utah trade him in any case?  Don't they already have a million draft pics from their earlier trades (actually, I think they have up to 10 firsts in the next 3 drafts, variable due to protections)?

I am not sure the Celtics could swing something, they would have to send out a player that made at least $3M to match Kessler's salary.  But this is the type of young big I would love to see the Celtics get.

[Moranis]

I'd trade 2 1st for Kessler even without him being able to shoot.  Defensive monster. Will be just 23 when season starts and cheap for 2 more years.  Be a great fit on Celtics as 3rd big man (and could play with both KP and Al or as only big).

[Birdman]

I'd trade 2 1st for Kessler even without him being able to shoot.  Defensive monster. Will be just 23 when season starts and cheap for 2 more years.  Be a great fit on Celtics as 3rd big man (and could play with both KP and Al or as only big).

Same!!

[Roy H.]

Jalen Brunson has been underpaid throughout his entire NBA career. He was selected by the Dallas Mavericks in the second round of the 2018 NBA Draft and immediately grew into a valuable role player. He joined the Knicks on a hefty four-year free agent deal in 2022, but proved quickly that he was an All-Star worthy of a max contract. Now, if Brunson wants that max contract, he needs only to wait one offseason for it. Brunson has a player option for the 2025-26 season. If he declines it, he will become a free agent and be able to re-sign with the Knicks for a staggering $269 million over five years.

But, according to The Athletic's Fred Katz, this outcome isn't a certainty. No, Brunson, who becomes eligible for a contract extension on July 12, the two-year anniversary of his last deal, is considering a far cheaper option. If Brunson re-signs when he becomes eligible on Friday, he would only be able to earn around $156.5 million over four years. That's around $113 million left on the table, and according to Katz, Brunson is considering it.

I'll believe it when I see it.  $100 million is a lot of scratch.

[Vermont Green]

Jalen Brunson has been underpaid throughout his entire NBA career. He was selected by the Dallas Mavericks in the second round of the 2018 NBA Draft and immediately grew into a valuable role player. He joined the Knicks on a hefty four-year free agent deal in 2022, but proved quickly that he was an All-Star worthy of a max contract. Now, if Brunson wants that max contract, he needs only to wait one offseason for it. Brunson has a player option for the 2025-26 season. If he declines it, he will become a free agent and be able to re-sign with the Knicks for a staggering $269 million over five years.

But, according to The Athletic's Fred Katz, this outcome isn't a certainty. No, Brunson, who becomes eligible for a contract extension on July 12, the two-year anniversary of his last deal, is considering a far cheaper option. If Brunson re-signs when he becomes eligible on Friday, he would only be able to earn around $156.5 million over four years. That's around $113 million left on the table, and according to Katz, Brunson is considering it.

I'll believe it when I see it.  $100 million is a lot of scratch.

So if my math is right, he would start at about $35M.  He is on the books for about $25M in 2025/26 with a Player Option.  Would this extension take the place of the final year or would it start after his final year?  Hard to believe he would take this in any case.  Maybe if there is an opt out for him after 2 seasons, then he could kind of reset.  Have some serious guaranteed money if he gets injured or otherwise declines, but also has another shot at a big contract as a fairly young player.

[keevsnick]

Tommy Beer @TommyBeer

Not surprising b/c we know how Danny Ainge operates, but Utah has purportedly turned down offers that include two first-round picks in exchange for Walker Kessler, per @IanBegley

Isn't Kessler pretty good?  I know he isn't 2 firsts good, but why would Utah trade him in any case?  Don't they already have a million draft pics from their earlier trades (actually, I think they have up to 10 firsts in the next 3 drafts, variable due to protections)?

I am not sure the Celtics could swing something, they would have to send out a player that made at least $3M to match Kessler's salary.  But this is the type of young big I would love to see the Celtics get.

Anytime I see a report of a team turning down an offer I immediately assume that's a tactic to get better offers. Claiming you have offers for 2 first round picks on the table feels like a bargaining position. Maybe they eventually get 2, but that feels like more than enough for Kessler.

As for a Celtics fit its pretty easy to make that trade if you offer Springer, but there's really not other way to do it. It even sves the Celtics about 5 million in salary+tax this year.

That said, i'm not sure its an amazing fit. The C's already have 5 centers under contract, even if 1 is starting the year injured. Three of them were just re-signed.

[Celtics2021]

Jalen Brunson has been underpaid throughout his entire NBA career. He was selected by the Dallas Mavericks in the second round of the 2018 NBA Draft and immediately grew into a valuable role player. He joined the Knicks on a hefty four-year free agent deal in 2022, but proved quickly that he was an All-Star worthy of a max contract. Now, if Brunson wants that max contract, he needs only to wait one offseason for it. Brunson has a player option for the 2025-26 season. If he declines it, he will become a free agent and be able to re-sign with the Knicks for a staggering $269 million over five years.

But, according to The Athletic's Fred Katz, this outcome isn't a certainty. No, Brunson, who becomes eligible for a contract extension on July 12, the two-year anniversary of his last deal, is considering a far cheaper option. If Brunson re-signs when he becomes eligible on Friday, he would only be able to earn around $156.5 million over four years. That's around $113 million left on the table, and according to Katz, Brunson is considering it.

I'll believe it when I see it.  $100 million is a lot of scratch.

Believe it, but ignore the agent spin calling Brunson a team guy.  Brunson will sign an extension, turning down the final year of his current deal.  It will be a 3+1 extension, so that he can hit free agency again after year 10 and be eligible for a 35% max contract, as opposed to signing a 5-year contract after year 7 and missing out on the 35% window because he?s be deemed too old.

There is certainly a risk for him, but he is not leaving money on the table out of the kindness of his heart.  He is leaving it on the table to potentially extract even more later.

[Roy H.]

Jalen Brunson has been underpaid throughout his entire NBA career. He was selected by the Dallas Mavericks in the second round of the 2018 NBA Draft and immediately grew into a valuable role player. He joined the Knicks on a hefty four-year free agent deal in 2022, but proved quickly that he was an All-Star worthy of a max contract. Now, if Brunson wants that max contract, he needs only to wait one offseason for it. Brunson has a player option for the 2025-26 season. If he declines it, he will become a free agent and be able to re-sign with the Knicks for a staggering $269 million over five years.

But, according to The Athletic's Fred Katz, this outcome isn't a certainty. No, Brunson, who becomes eligible for a contract extension on July 12, the two-year anniversary of his last deal, is considering a far cheaper option. If Brunson re-signs when he becomes eligible on Friday, he would only be able to earn around $156.5 million over four years. That's around $113 million left on the table, and according to Katz, Brunson is considering it.

I'll believe it when I see it.  $100 million is a lot of scratch.

Believe it, but ignore the agent spin calling Brunson a team guy.  Brunson will sign an extension, turning down the final year of his current deal.  It will be a 3+1 extension, so that he can hit free agency again after year 10 and be eligible for a 35% max contract, as opposed to signing a 5-year contract after year 7 and missing out on the 35% window because he?s be deemed too old.

There is certainly a risk for him, but he is not leaving money on the table out of the kindness of his heart.  He is leaving it on the table to potentially extract even more later.

Question:  Could he agree to a 3 + 1 contract next summer, making more money in the short-term and still maximizing long-term earning potential? 

[Surferdad]

Tommy Beer @TommyBeer

Not surprising b/c we know how Danny Ainge operates, but Utah has purportedly turned down offers that include two first-round picks in exchange for Walker Kessler, per @IanBegley

Isn't Kessler pretty good?  I know he isn't 2 firsts good, but why would Utah trade him in any case?  Don't they already have a million draft pics from their earlier trades (actually, I think they have up to 10 firsts in the next 3 drafts, variable due to protections)?

I am not sure the Celtics could swing something, they would have to send out a player that made at least $3M to match Kessler's salary.  But this is the type of young big I would love to see the Celtics get.

Anytime I see a report of a team turning down an offer I immediately assume that's a tactic to get better offers. Claiming you have offers for 2 first round picks on the table feels like a bargaining position. Maybe they eventually get 2, but that feels like more than enough for Kessler.

As for a Celtics fit its pretty easy to make that trade if you offer Springer, but there's really not other way to do it. It even sves the Celtics about 5 million in salary+tax this year.

That said, i'm not sure its an amazing fit. The C's already have 5 centers under contract, even if 1 is starting the year injured. Three of them were just re-signed.

I am tired of this narrative that because they have 5 centers now, they don?t need to look for another one:
KP is injured and injury-prone
Horford is 38
Kornet is just not very good
Queta is inexperienced and could not get PT
Tilman is decent but undersized for a C. Also could not get much PT last year.

[Who]

If I were Utah, I wouldn't trade Kessler for anything less than a top 10 pick. Two later firsts are over-rated assets. Especially for a team like Utah that already has many young players and many future 1sts. They need quality, not quantity.

[Celtics2021]

Tommy Beer @TommyBeer

Not surprising b/c we know how Danny Ainge operates, but Utah has purportedly turned down offers that include two first-round picks in exchange for Walker Kessler, per @IanBegley

Isn't Kessler pretty good?  I know he isn't 2 firsts good, but why would Utah trade him in any case?  Don't they already have a million draft pics from their earlier trades (actually, I think they have up to 10 firsts in the next 3 drafts, variable due to protections)?

I am not sure the Celtics could swing something, they would have to send out a player that made at least $3M to match Kessler's salary.  But this is the type of young big I would love to see the Celtics get.

Anytime I see a report of a team turning down an offer I immediately assume that's a tactic to get better offers. Claiming you have offers for 2 first round picks on the table feels like a bargaining position. Maybe they eventually get 2, but that feels like more than enough for Kessler.

As for a Celtics fit its pretty easy to make that trade if you offer Springer, but there's really not other way to do it. It even sves the Celtics about 5 million in salary+tax this year.

That said, i'm not sure its an amazing fit. The C's already have 5 centers under contract, even if 1 is starting the year injured. Three of them were just re-signed.

I am tired of this narrative that because they have 5 centers now, they don?t need to look for another one:
KP is injured and injury-prone
Horford is 38
Kornet is just not very good
Queta is inexperienced and could not get PT
Tilman is decent but undersized for a C. Also could not get much PT last year.

Fine, they have 5 centers, none of whole are tradeable until December 15th at the earliest, so let?s stop thinking about it now.  And they had those same 5 centers with all their problems last year when they had the nets record and won the title with relative ease.

There is nothing to do about centers right now.

[Phantom255x]

I think a lot of people are sleeping on Memphis. People forget, the entire team was hurt last season and that pretty much derailed them. Yes injury risks still exist, but if they can mostly stay healthy or not have 10 guys missing at the same time, they are absolutely a playoff team in the West. Don't sleep on them.

[Who]

I think a lot of people are sleeping on Memphis. People forget, the entire team was hurt last season and that pretty much derailed them. Yes injury risks still exist, but if they can mostly stay healthy or not have 10 guys missing at the same time, they are absolutely a playoff team in the West. Don't sleep on them.

I don't where I am with Memphis.

I love their Big Three of Morant, JJJ and D Bane. Any team with 3 players that good should be in the race for a title. But I look at their supporting cast and I don't see the quality they need around them.

G: Morant, M Smart
G: D Bane, Konchar
F: Z Williams, J LaRavia
F: JJJ, S Aldama
C: Z Edey, B Clarke

[Edit: I forgot GG Jackson at SF position.]

Smart is a good player but the wrong fit for that backcourt. They need shooters around Morant. Memphis went like Atlanta with obsessing about Morant's defense and wanting a defensive guard to help him like Atlanta did with Trae and D Murray. It was the wrong fit there. It is the wrong fit here.

The SF position is a disaster. Those two guys are both 3rd stringers. Neither has any business in the rotation for a playoff team nevermind a title contender.

Zach Edey is a big swing factor. I was down on him prior to his summer league performance and felt he would likely need 1-2 years to adapt to the NBA due to his lack of speed / mobility / agility. But he had a great SL game against Kessler. He might be ready to contribute.

So a bad Zach Edey = likely outside playoffs
A good Zach Edey = playoff shot

Smart is their only high quality bench player. B Clarke is solid and S Aldama showed good progress last year. Two middle of the pack bench players there. Maybe a bit above average B Clarke and a bit below average Aldama. Then a pair of 3rd stringers at SG and SG which is a killer for them.

The West is brutal. There are maybe 13 teams going for those 8 playoff spots. So 5 good teams are going to miss out. Memphis are one of those bubble teams for me.

Overall, I've found Memphis to be one of the most disappointing teams of the off-season for their failure to puts quality veterans around their Big Three. They are wasting this window of opportunity.

[Who]

You would wonder given how bad Memphis is at SF are they better off starting Smart at SF and signing a PG to replace him. Maybe bring back Tyus Jones. Maybe take a chance on Tyty Washington.