Tough break for the Celtics but I don't think that changes that we are still a title contender. Not as much as before the injury, RWill is a good player, and impactful player, but we do have others (Theis and GWill) who will need to step up.
Incidentally, I was curious to see the 2-man results for various combinations of our bigs, essentially with Theis in for RWill: (these are normalized per 100 possessions):
Horford/RWill +13.6 51 games
Horford/Theis +33.0 7 games
GWill/RWill +4.7 56 games
Theis/GWill +13.2 13 games
The sample size with Theis is admittedly small but Theis is better than both Horford and GWill than RWill was with either. Again, small sample size and context but if you look only at the last 10 games:
Horford/RWill +21.5
Horford/Theis +32.9
GWill/RWill +20.6
Theis/GWill +14.9
Theis still pairs roughly as well with GWill and Horford as RWill does. Theis should also be getting better still, at least a little. Incidentally, Horford and GWill over the last 10 games are only +5.2, the worst combination.
We can overcome this. According to these numbers, Horford and Theis should play the most, Theis and GWill the next most, and Horford and GWill the least.
Theis' ability to avoid foul trouble will probably flip this. Plus Theis needs to play when Al doesn't.
I don't think that is true. Horford and Theis have played 44 total minutes in 7 games for a plus/minus of +29. They are actually very good together. That is why it is so critical that Theis stays out of foul trouble. All combinations of Horford, Theis, and GWill are going to need to be used. It will be like before we got Theis back but it will be Theis instead of RWill.
I am not worried about them playing together. I am worried when neither is on the court.
I don't think, even in the playoffs, Al is good for more than 32-34 mpg, Best case Grant plays the same. In a perfect world that means Theis needs to play needs to play 30 mpg. I just don't see this. Otherwise its Tatum at the 4 and more minutes for White/Pritchard.
If Kornet can play at all, "cheat" 3-5 minutes/half around the quarter break maybe I'll feel better. But if those 6-10 mpg are with Grant playing smallball 5, I'm worried.
I think we are saying the same thing. Before Theis, we had a 3 man big rotation of Horford (30 min), RWill (30 min), and GWill (24 min), roughly. Now we have to replace RWill's 30 min per game. Theis will likely get 24 min, maybe GWill bumps up to 32 min and maybe Horford at 32 min also. That would be 88 of the 96 minutes needed.
But to do that means all combinations will get some playing time, including some time for Theis and Horford. That is how we played it last night. It was Horford who was missing not RWill but then RWill got hurt and there was foul trouble, but up to that point, there was always two of RWill, GWill, and Theis on the court. Moving forward, I expect the same but it will be combinations of Horford, Theis, and GWill.
On the season:
Horford/RWill: 761 min
Horford/GWill 729 min
GWill/RWill 593 min
I think you will see about the same proportions except GWill gets RWill's minutes and Theis gets GWill's minutes, or something like that.
As I posted earlier though, the best combination statistically is Horford + Theis. If it were me, I would start Theis and keep GWill in the same role he has thrived in all season. It doesn't change all that much, just gives Theis more minutes with the starters who I feel he will complement better that GWill does.