Celts get Derrick White for Richardson, Langford, #1, 2028 pick swap

[slamtheking]

I wonder how people judge this trade next year when White's three point shooting returns to his career average before this year(over 35%) and Richardson returns to the shooter he was the three years before this year(under 35%).

if that happens, I'll gladly re-evaluate my position that this was a serious overpay.  one good game from White doesn't erase the fact it's been an overpay so far.

[Kernewek]

That is the question.  What is Boston's draft pick going to be 5 years in the future?  It is all nice to say late 1st rounders don't mean much, but the problem is you have no way of knowing if that pick is in fact going to be a late 1st round pick.  I'm sure the Nets thought they were trading late 1st rounders when they made the KG trade, how'd that work out?  Boston thought it was going to get a top 5 pick from Sacramento, how'd that work out?  Trading the pick this summer, was a no brainer, but that pick swap years in the future could end up very poorly.  Now if Boston can win this series and hopefully win the championship, I think everyone would sign up for that, but Milwaukee very well might win this series and Boston may never actually win a championship, and then in 4 years when Tatum and Brown are gone and the team is terrible it might not even own its draft pick that ends up in the top 5.  Just so much uncertainty, and that is the question.

I agree and have said many times that this trade felt like an overpay.  It feels less like that after last night's game but still to me, it feel like an overpay.  But this future pick that everyone is fretting over is a pick swap.  For it to end up being really bad, we would have to be in the lottery and SAN would have to be in the top 10 or better.  Yes, it is 5 years in the future so you never know but the chance of both these things happening is very low.  The most likely outcome is we are still better than SAN and the pick swap never happens.  Second most likely outcome is that the two teams have similar places in the standing and any swap of picks is more or less a wash.

I am not worried at all about the swap.  I simply don't expect us to be a lottery team in 5 years.  I am much more worried that whatever voodoo spell White has going to make the team better when he is on the court will somehow come to an end or wear off  .

Someone mentioned Shane Battier earlier, and I agree with that comparision, but I think I have a better one.

Now, It's been a long enough time that maybe this reference isn't going to land (and maybe it'll get waived off because the team and player in question never won a championship), but the best way to see a guy like Derrick White is like a modern day Chuck Hayes.

Chuck Hayes, as we will undoubtedly recall, is more or less the poster boy for a player that impacts the game in ways that don't show up in the traditional box score. It bears noting as well that Hayes's career is recent enough that you can still find blog posts and articles about it online:
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/14/sports/basketball/14rockets.html
https://www.thedreamshake.com/platform/amp/2009/12/3/1183667/hayes-adelman-and-morey-taking
https://www.sactownroyalty.com/2012/9/10/3284235/player-previews-chuck-hayes

But basically if you jump into Basketball-reference today and you look at Chuck Hayes, you're going to have many questions about why he earned the contracts he did. His counting stats aren't great. His advanced stats are middling. He just happened to be really good at specific things that are not as easy to codify cleanly -- and were less visible to more or less everyone 10+ years ago.

[RPGenerate]

For people who don't like this trade, let me give you a hypothetical. If we win banner #18 this year and White has a crucial good game or two, would you still care about it being an overpay? Lets go further and say that White drops off a cliff and by the time that pick swap occurs we are terrible and the Spurs are great. Would the trade still have been worth it for a championship?

[Phantom255x]

I wonder how people judge this trade next year when White's three point shooting returns to his career average before this year(over 35%) and Richardson returns to the shooter he was the three years before this year(under 35%).

We can't determine anything until the 2028 Draft is completed

 

[jambr380]

For people who don't like this trade, let me give you a hypothetical. If we win banner #18 this year and White has a crucial good game or two, would you still care about it being an overpay? Lets go further and say that White drops off a cliff and by the time that pick swap occurs we are terrible and the Spurs are great. Would the trade still have been worth it for a championship?

If we get a championship, I don't care if White retires in July and the the Spurs take our 2028 high lottery pick. It doesn't mean that White deserves all the credit, but if he continues to be the good luck charm, then I am all for it.

That's the thing, it's all about championships. That's why 2010 was so devastating (and why we all hate Scott Foster) and why we are looking at how Al is playing now and wondering what would have happened in 2020 if he didn't ditch us for Philly. You only get so many chances.

[perks-a-beast]

For people who don't like this trade, let me give you a hypothetical. If we win banner #18 this year and White has a crucial good game or two, would you still care about it being an overpay? Lets go further and say that White drops off a cliff and by the time that pick swap occurs we are terrible and the Spurs are great. Would the trade still have been worth it for a championship?

I don't like the trade, but I'm willing to forgive pretty much anything if we get a banner. Look how much the bucks gave up to get Jrue Holiday. I'm sure they don't regret it for a second.

[Vermont Green]

For people who don't like this trade, let me give you a hypothetical. If we win banner #18 this year and White has a crucial good game or two, would you still care about it being an overpay? Lets go further and say that White drops off a cliff and by the time that pick swap occurs we are terrible and the Spurs are great. Would the trade still have been worth it for a championship?

I don't like the trade, but I'm willing to forgive pretty much anything if we get a banner. Look how much the bucks gave up to get Jrue Holiday. I'm sure they don't regret it for a second.

I had to look back to refresh my memory on that Holiday trade:

George Hill
Eric Bledsoe
RJ Hampton (draft rights)
2024 Swap
2025 First
2026 Swap
2027 First

for

Holiday and Sam Merrill

So really about twice what we gave up.  Twice the picks, twice the swaps, and roughly twice the players.  And Holiday was only signed to the end of the season.  This became moot as the Bucks extended him but still, you often get less back for an expiring contract, especially when it is not likely that player will resign with the current team.

Holiday is a better player, a more impactful player, that is absolutely true.  But that is four picks in the future, all well in the future.  The chance that at least one of them becomes a high lottery pick is pretty good, at least as compared to our one out in the future swap becoming a high lottery pick.  The first round pick we gave up is already set as a pretty late pick.   And they are paying him about twice as much.  We have Smart and White for less than what they are paying Holiday.  We can add a TP-MLE and still be a little less than what they are paying Holiday.

So if we overpaid, then I guess MIL overpaid for Holiday also.

[seancally]

If you think the player you’re getting is someone who can help you compete for a title, especially over the next few years, you overpay for that player. Brad thinks White can do that, and he overpaid. I trust him. And so far I think his instincts are correct. If White has hi mojo back then that closing lineup of Smart/White/Brown/Tatum/Horford is deadly.

[slamtheking]

For people who don't like this trade, let me give you a hypothetical. If we win banner #18 this year and White has a crucial good game or two, would you still care about it being an overpay? Lets go further and say that White drops off a cliff and by the time that pick swap occurs we are terrible and the Spurs are great. Would the trade still have been worth it for a championship?

A "good" game is what he's supposed to have and not a reason to dismiss a trade that overpaid to get him.  now, if he had a couple of "great" games in addition to all good games going forward, maybe.  But the odds of White being the player that comes up big to get banner 18 is very unlikely. 

The most likely players to come up big for us in winning a title are (in order): Tatum, Brown, Smart, Al, Timelord, GWill then White -- only ahead of PP and Theis.  It could even be argued PP could be put ahead of White just because PP can have a hot game where he's burying a bunch of critical 3's whereas we won't get that from White. 

an overpay is an overpay, pure and simple.  the real question is whether the fanbase will ignore that if the C's win the title. 

here's the flip side.  Say the C's lose the title because they can't get any scoring off the bench.  What if White's good game is the anomaly this postseason and we lose out because the bench and bench scoring costs us?  Do those that love this trade start to wonder if the price was worth it -- particularly next year if White's offense doesn't improve?

[Moranis]

For people who don't like this trade, let me give you a hypothetical. If we win banner #18 this year and White has a crucial good game or two, would you still care about it being an overpay? Lets go further and say that White drops off a cliff and by the time that pick swap occurs we are terrible and the Spurs are great. Would the trade still have been worth it for a championship?

I don't like the trade, but I'm willing to forgive pretty much anything if we get a banner. Look how much the bucks gave up to get Jrue Holiday. I'm sure they don't regret it for a second.

I had to look back to refresh my memory on that Holiday trade:

George Hill
Eric Bledsoe
RJ Hampton (draft rights)
2024 Swap
2025 First
2026 Swap
2027 First

for

Holiday and Sam Merrill

So really about twice what we gave up.  Twice the picks, twice the swaps, and roughly twice the players.  And Holiday was only signed to the end of the season.  This became moot as the Bucks extended him but still, you often get less back for an expiring contract, especially when it is not likely that player will resign with the current team.

Holiday is a better player, a more impactful player, that is absolutely true.  But that is four picks in the future, all well in the future.  The chance that at least one of them becomes a high lottery pick is pretty good, at least as compared to our one out in the future swap becoming a high lottery pick.  The first round pick we gave up is already set as a pretty late pick.   And they are paying him about twice as much.  We have Smart and White for less than what they are paying Holiday.  We can add a TP-MLE and still be a little less than what they are paying Holiday.

So if we overpaid, then I guess MIL overpaid for Holiday also.

Milwaukee did the Holiday trade almost exclusively to lock Giannis up for 5 years.  I'm not saying Giannis would have left without doing the Jrue trade, but that 100% solidified Giannis signing long term.  You have to look at the trade with that perspective.  Boston's main guys are all signed long term, so that component doesn't exist with White. 

Also, Jrue is a lot more valuable as a player than double what White is.  The closer you get to 100 the harder it is to move the scale, so while Jrue may be "double" the player, he is probably more like 4 or 5 times the value on the floor and that is without accounting for making sure Giannis signed his supermax.

[RPGenerate]

For people who don't like this trade, let me give you a hypothetical. If we win banner #18 this year and White has a crucial good game or two, would you still care about it being an overpay? Lets go further and say that White drops off a cliff and by the time that pick swap occurs we are terrible and the Spurs are great. Would the trade still have been worth it for a championship?

A "good" game is what he's supposed to have and not a reason to dismiss a trade that overpaid to get him.  now, if he had a couple of "great" games in addition to all good games going forward, maybe.  But the odds of White being the player that comes up big to get banner 18 is very unlikely. 

The most likely players to come up big for us in winning a title are (in order): Tatum, Brown, Smart, Al, Timelord, GWill then White -- only ahead of PP and Theis.  It could even be argued PP could be put ahead of White just because PP can have a hot game where he's burying a bunch of critical 3's whereas we won't get that from White. 

an overpay is an overpay, pure and simple.  the real question is whether the fanbase will ignore that if the C's win the title. 

here's the flip side.  Say the C's lose the title because they can't get any scoring off the bench.  What if White's good game is the anomaly this postseason and we lose out because the bench and bench scoring costs us?  Do those that love this trade start to wonder if the price was worth it -- particularly next year if White's offense doesn't improve?

You can just say yes without your obvious bias getting in the way.

[Vermont Green]

here's the flip side.  Say the C's lose the title because they can't get any scoring off the bench.  What if White's good game is the anomaly this postseason and we lose out because the bench and bench scoring costs us?  Do those that love this trade start to wonder if the price was worth it -- particularly next year if White's offense doesn't improve?

In the playoffs, 8 games, 6 W, 2 L, White is +4.6 per game, behind only Horford (+7.3) and Tatum (+5.5).  He is doing that while shooting 36% overall and 25% from 3.  Per 36 +/-, White is tied with Horford at +7.4, the best on the team of the regular players.  White is only playing 22 minutes or so per game whereas Horford is 35 and Tatum is 41.

In terms of bench scoring, White is only adding 7 pts per game.  Bench scoring does not seem to be impacting wins so much. 

I am not sure that I would go as far as saying that I love the trade but I will say that I love the results that have occurred when White is on the floor.  I am admittedly fascinated by the apparent contradiction between White's traditional stats and how the team does when he is on the floor.  8 playoff games (181 minutes) is a pretty good sample size.

Smart has traditionally been a similar player in that regard.  Low 3pt shooting, turnovers, and other things but then the team would win when he was on the floor.  White is this but to a much greater degree.  I don't ever remember a player being able to contribute so much so quietly, so far under the radar.  It doesn't seem possible while shooting 25% from 3 and maybe it won't last but for now, it is working remarkably well.

[BudweiserCeltic]

"One good game"

That's the problem, that some of you think that he's only had "one good game".

[celticsclay]

Curious what the motivation for continuing to debate this in the middle of what we hope is a championship run. We are wildly exceeding our expectations from the time of the deadline. This guy is going to be on our team for years. I can understand firing it up if they get a real good player with the pick swap, Langford somehow blossoms or Richardson becomes a core part of the rotation in San Antonio. For now it seems pretty hard to get worked up about, especially after a great win yesterday where White played really solid.

I am not trying to antagonize one side or the other, just genuinely curious.

[Donoghus]

Curious what the motivation for continuing to debate this in the middle of what we hope is a championship run. We are wildly exceeding our expectations from the time of the deadline. This guy is going to be on our team for years. I can understand firing it up if they get a real good player with the pick swap, Langford somehow blossoms or Richardson becomes a core part of the rotation in San Antonio. For now it seems pretty hard to get worked up about, especially after a great win yesterday where White played really solid.

I am not trying to antagonize one side or the other, just genuinely curious.

Proverbial case of not seeing the forest for the trees