Woj: Schroder to the Lakers for #28 + Danny Green

[Jvalin]

Kevin Pelton of ESPN gives the Thunder an A and the Lakers a C.

I don't get it.

me neither..should be other way around

I guess because the Thunder are likely to get 2 1sts (or whatever they get for Green) out of an expiring contract of a player they don't have long-term plans for; while it is more of a sideways move for the Lakers. Schroder for Rondo/Green/1st isn't terrible, but it doesn't make them considerably better or anything.

Two firsts for a 33-year-old role player? Wow! Not to mention, he's on a $15,365,853 contract. Whomever wants to trade for Green, they gotta match salaries for him. For instance, the C's have no realistic way to trade for Green. Unless a contending team is looking to dump around $15M worth of salary, it's likely that Green will become a buyout candidate. I'm too lazy to check this out at the moment. But then again, if such a team existed, I guess the Thunder would have expanded the trade to make it a 3-way deal.

[Roy H.]

The Lakers are getting fleeced in this trade , a middling efficiency point guard who creates at a moderate rate (he can definitely play off the ball, but I'd assume the Lakers would want him to run the offence when LeBron is resting) isn't what they really need compared to one of the best 3 and D players in the league. Feel that they can sign some perimeter firepower in FA and have those players share offensive duties with KCP when LeBron is resting.

One of the best 3 and D guys?  Not last year. 36% perimeter shooting and okay defense only.

Schroder was a better outside shooter last year.

Don't think his defence was just okay last year - he was able to defend the wing positions (and even a bit of guard) at a pretty high level, he was a key cog for the Laker defence being so elite.

And Schroeder's next best season from three was 35.1%, I'd take a guy who shot over 40% for numerous seasons (he did it last season in Toronto so it's not like he's washed) over him in three point shooting.

You’re a metrics guy.  Can you point me to something showing that he was particularly good at shooting or defense last year?

2019/20 regular season

Defense
Defensive box plus/minus: +1.5
Defensive win shares: 2.5 (his worst number since the 2011/12 season, but still pretty good)
Defensive RAPTOR: +2.1

Shooting
eFG%: 54.2
TS%: 55.2 (league average was 56.3)

Exluding TS%, all the other figures are above league average (to say the least).

So the standard is “above league average” for a guy at the “top” tier of 3-and-D players?  And he can’t even hit that in terms of his shooting efficiency?

[Jvalin]

The Lakers are getting fleeced in this trade , a middling efficiency point guard who creates at a moderate rate (he can definitely play off the ball, but I'd assume the Lakers would want him to run the offence when LeBron is resting) isn't what they really need compared to one of the best 3 and D players in the league. Feel that they can sign some perimeter firepower in FA and have those players share offensive duties with KCP when LeBron is resting.

One of the best 3 and D guys?  Not last year. 36% perimeter shooting and okay defense only.

Schroder was a better outside shooter last year.

Don't think his defence was just okay last year - he was able to defend the wing positions (and even a bit of guard) at a pretty high level, he was a key cog for the Laker defence being so elite.

And Schroeder's next best season from three was 35.1%, I'd take a guy who shot over 40% for numerous seasons (he did it last season in Toronto so it's not like he's washed) over him in three point shooting.

You’re a metrics guy.  Can you point me to something showing that he was particularly good at shooting or defense last year?

2019/20 regular season

Defense
Defensive box plus/minus: +1.5
Defensive win shares: 2.5 (his worst number since the 2011/12 season, but still pretty good)
Defensive RAPTOR: +2.1

Shooting
eFG%: 54.2
TS%: 55.2 (league average was 56.3)

Exluding TS%, all the other figures are above league average (to say the least).

So the standard is “above league average” for a guy at the “top” tier of 3-and-D players?  And he can’t even hit that in terms of his shooting efficiency?

His defensive metrics are way above average.

He ranked 22nd in the league in defensive box plus/minus (3rd at the SG position).

He ranked 42nd in the league in defensive win shares (5th at his position).

He ranked 39th in the league in defensive RAPTOR (6th at his position).

The above rankings are among qualifying players.

You can find all the numbers here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dws

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

[Roy H.]

The Lakers are getting fleeced in this trade , a middling efficiency point guard who creates at a moderate rate (he can definitely play off the ball, but I'd assume the Lakers would want him to run the offence when LeBron is resting) isn't what they really need compared to one of the best 3 and D players in the league. Feel that they can sign some perimeter firepower in FA and have those players share offensive duties with KCP when LeBron is resting.

One of the best 3 and D guys?  Not last year. 36% perimeter shooting and okay defense only.

Schroder was a better outside shooter last year.

Don't think his defence was just okay last year - he was able to defend the wing positions (and even a bit of guard) at a pretty high level, he was a key cog for the Laker defence being so elite.

And Schroeder's next best season from three was 35.1%, I'd take a guy who shot over 40% for numerous seasons (he did it last season in Toronto so it's not like he's washed) over him in three point shooting.

You’re a metrics guy.  Can you point me to something showing that he was particularly good at shooting or defense last year?

2019/20 regular season

Defense
Defensive box plus/minus: +1.5
Defensive win shares: 2.5 (his worst number since the 2011/12 season, but still pretty good)
Defensive RAPTOR: +2.1

Shooting
eFG%: 54.2
TS%: 55.2 (league average was 56.3)

Exluding TS%, all the other figures are above league average (to say the least).

So the standard is “above league average” for a guy at the “top” tier of 3-and-D players?  And he can’t even hit that in terms of his shooting efficiency?

His defensive metrics are way above average.

He ranked 22nd in the league in defensive box plus/minus (3rd at the SG position).

He ranked 42nd in the league in defensive win shares (5th at his position).

He ranked 39th in the league in defensive RAPTOR (6th at his position).

The above rankings are among qualifying players.

You can find all the numbers here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dws

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

Thanks for the links.

So the bottom one tells me that Green and James Harden are roughly equal defenders, both on the same level as Marcus Smart (both are ranked higher than Smart).  Jaylen Brown, on the other hand, is only slightly above average, behind amazing defenders like Jokovic.

Three of the top five defenders in the NBA are G. Dieng, WC Stein and Clint Capela.  Giannis is 10th, right behind Alex Caruso.

Oh, and Kanter was better than Jaylen and Hayward last year.

DWS tells me that Kemba is a better defender than Jrue Holiday.  Heck, Jrue has 86 guys in front of him, including noted defender Luka Doncic.

If your results are garbage, your metric is garbage.

[Somebody]

The Lakers are getting fleeced in this trade , a middling efficiency point guard who creates at a moderate rate (he can definitely play off the ball, but I'd assume the Lakers would want him to run the offence when LeBron is resting) isn't what they really need compared to one of the best 3 and D players in the league. Feel that they can sign some perimeter firepower in FA and have those players share offensive duties with KCP when LeBron is resting.

One of the best 3 and D guys?  Not last year. 36% perimeter shooting and okay defense only.

Schroder was a better outside shooter last year.

Don't think his defence was just okay last year - he was able to defend the wing positions (and even a bit of guard) at a pretty high level, he was a key cog for the Laker defence being so elite.

And Schroeder's next best season from three was 35.1%, I'd take a guy who shot over 40% for numerous seasons (he did it last season in Toronto so it's not like he's washed) over him in three point shooting.

You’re a metrics guy.  Can you point me to something showing that he was particularly good at shooting or defense last year?

2019/20 regular season

Defense
Defensive box plus/minus: +1.5
Defensive win shares: 2.5 (his worst number since the 2011/12 season, but still pretty good)
Defensive RAPTOR: +2.1

Shooting
eFG%: 54.2
TS%: 55.2 (league average was 56.3)

Exluding TS%, all the other figures are above league average (to say the least).

So the standard is “above league average” for a guy at the “top” tier of 3-and-D players?  And he can’t even hit that in terms of his shooting efficiency?

His defensive metrics are way above average.

He ranked 22nd in the league in defensive box plus/minus (3rd at the SG position).

He ranked 42nd in the league in defensive win shares (5th at his position).

He ranked 39th in the league in defensive RAPTOR (6th at his position).

The above rankings are among qualifying players.

You can find all the numbers here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dws

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

^^^this. He's also 57th overall in 3-year DRAPM from 2017-2020 (one year NPI samples can be very noisy and PI data doesn't exist for seasons after 2015), so he's been one of the best defensive wings in the league in recent years. Above average three point shooting + borderline elite wing defence = one of the best 3 and D wings in the league imo, not many role players are good to great at both of these things.

[Roy H.]

The Lakers are getting fleeced in this trade , a middling efficiency point guard who creates at a moderate rate (he can definitely play off the ball, but I'd assume the Lakers would want him to run the offence when LeBron is resting) isn't what they really need compared to one of the best 3 and D players in the league. Feel that they can sign some perimeter firepower in FA and have those players share offensive duties with KCP when LeBron is resting.

One of the best 3 and D guys?  Not last year. 36% perimeter shooting and okay defense only.

Schroder was a better outside shooter last year.

Don't think his defence was just okay last year - he was able to defend the wing positions (and even a bit of guard) at a pretty high level, he was a key cog for the Laker defence being so elite.

And Schroeder's next best season from three was 35.1%, I'd take a guy who shot over 40% for numerous seasons (he did it last season in Toronto so it's not like he's washed) over him in three point shooting.

You’re a metrics guy.  Can you point me to something showing that he was particularly good at shooting or defense last year?

2019/20 regular season

Defense
Defensive box plus/minus: +1.5
Defensive win shares: 2.5 (his worst number since the 2011/12 season, but still pretty good)
Defensive RAPTOR: +2.1

Shooting
eFG%: 54.2
TS%: 55.2 (league average was 56.3)

Exluding TS%, all the other figures are above league average (to say the least).

So the standard is “above league average” for a guy at the “top” tier of 3-and-D players?  And he can’t even hit that in terms of his shooting efficiency?

His defensive metrics are way above average.

He ranked 22nd in the league in defensive box plus/minus (3rd at the SG position).

He ranked 42nd in the league in defensive win shares (5th at his position).

He ranked 39th in the league in defensive RAPTOR (6th at his position).

The above rankings are among qualifying players.

You can find all the numbers here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dws

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

^^^this. He's also 57th overall in 3-year DRAPM from 2017-2020 (one year NPI samples can be very noisy and PI data doesn't exist for seasons after 2015), so he's been one of the best defensive wings in the league in recent years. Above average three point shooting + borderline elite wing defence = one of the best 3 and D wings in the league imo, not many role players are good to great at both of these things.

Is that the metric that uses height, age and stats from prior years?  Or is there a difference between the meaningless numbers DRPM spits out, versus the meaningless numbers DRAPM suggests?

[Somebody]

The Lakers are getting fleeced in this trade , a middling efficiency point guard who creates at a moderate rate (he can definitely play off the ball, but I'd assume the Lakers would want him to run the offence when LeBron is resting) isn't what they really need compared to one of the best 3 and D players in the league. Feel that they can sign some perimeter firepower in FA and have those players share offensive duties with KCP when LeBron is resting.

One of the best 3 and D guys?  Not last year. 36% perimeter shooting and okay defense only.

Schroder was a better outside shooter last year.

Don't think his defence was just okay last year - he was able to defend the wing positions (and even a bit of guard) at a pretty high level, he was a key cog for the Laker defence being so elite.

And Schroeder's next best season from three was 35.1%, I'd take a guy who shot over 40% for numerous seasons (he did it last season in Toronto so it's not like he's washed) over him in three point shooting.

You’re a metrics guy.  Can you point me to something showing that he was particularly good at shooting or defense last year?

2019/20 regular season

Defense
Defensive box plus/minus: +1.5
Defensive win shares: 2.5 (his worst number since the 2011/12 season, but still pretty good)
Defensive RAPTOR: +2.1

Shooting
eFG%: 54.2
TS%: 55.2 (league average was 56.3)

Exluding TS%, all the other figures are above league average (to say the least).

So the standard is “above league average” for a guy at the “top” tier of 3-and-D players?  And he can’t even hit that in terms of his shooting efficiency?

His defensive metrics are way above average.

He ranked 22nd in the league in defensive box plus/minus (3rd at the SG position).

He ranked 42nd in the league in defensive win shares (5th at his position).

He ranked 39th in the league in defensive RAPTOR (6th at his position).

The above rankings are among qualifying players.

You can find all the numbers here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dws

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

Thanks for the links.

So the bottom one tells me that Green and James Harden are roughly equal defenders, both on the same level as Marcus Smart (both are ranked higher than Smart).  Jaylen Brown, on the other hand, is only slightly above average, behind amazing defenders like Jokovic.

Three of the top five defenders in the NBA are G. Dieng, WC Stein and Clint Capela.  Giannis is 10th, right behind Alex Caruso.

Oh, and Kanter was better than Jaylen and Hayward last year.

DWS tells me that Kemba is a better defender than Jrue Holiday.  Heck, Jrue has 86 guys in front of him, including noted defender Luka Doncic.

If your results are garbage, your metric is garbage.

DWS and DBPM are sketchy defensive metrics so I won't argue too much about those two, but RAPTOR is quite good for non-PI/multiyear RAPM data - Dieng, WCS and Capela benefited from having really poor "replacement players" in KAT, Chriss/whoever GSW had at centre last season and Atlanta's rubbish/Houston when they were really poor, which drove up their numbers. Harden benefited from Houston building their entire defensive scheme around him that hid his defensive deficiencies while Jaylen got screwed a bit with Smart as his "backup" (and vice versa), there's only so much that a metric which aims to capture situational value can do with only one seasons' worth of data. You'll have to apply some context to impact metrics (which Green passes with flying colours as a wing defender who's often assigned to guard perimeter initiators on a strong defensive team that would normally deflate his on/off numbers a bit, he also does well in multiyear RAPM in my post above under very different team situations, which is a strong indicator of his defence being really good for a wing) as with every other stat.

[Jvalin]

The Lakers are getting fleeced in this trade , a middling efficiency point guard who creates at a moderate rate (he can definitely play off the ball, but I'd assume the Lakers would want him to run the offence when LeBron is resting) isn't what they really need compared to one of the best 3 and D players in the league. Feel that they can sign some perimeter firepower in FA and have those players share offensive duties with KCP when LeBron is resting.

One of the best 3 and D guys?  Not last year. 36% perimeter shooting and okay defense only.

Schroder was a better outside shooter last year.

Don't think his defence was just okay last year - he was able to defend the wing positions (and even a bit of guard) at a pretty high level, he was a key cog for the Laker defence being so elite.

And Schroeder's next best season from three was 35.1%, I'd take a guy who shot over 40% for numerous seasons (he did it last season in Toronto so it's not like he's washed) over him in three point shooting.

You’re a metrics guy.  Can you point me to something showing that he was particularly good at shooting or defense last year?

2019/20 regular season

Defense
Defensive box plus/minus: +1.5
Defensive win shares: 2.5 (his worst number since the 2011/12 season, but still pretty good)
Defensive RAPTOR: +2.1

Shooting
eFG%: 54.2
TS%: 55.2 (league average was 56.3)

Exluding TS%, all the other figures are above league average (to say the least).

So the standard is “above league average” for a guy at the “top” tier of 3-and-D players?  And he can’t even hit that in terms of his shooting efficiency?

His defensive metrics are way above average.

He ranked 22nd in the league in defensive box plus/minus (3rd at the SG position).

He ranked 42nd in the league in defensive win shares (5th at his position).

He ranked 39th in the league in defensive RAPTOR (6th at his position).

The above rankings are among qualifying players.

You can find all the numbers here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dws

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

Thanks for the links.

So the bottom one tells me that Green and James Harden are roughly equal defenders, both on the same level as Marcus Smart (both are ranked higher than Smart).  Jaylen Brown, on the other hand, is only slightly above average, behind amazing defenders like Jokovic.

Three of the top five defenders in the NBA are G. Dieng, WC Stein and Clint Capela.  Giannis is 10th, right behind Alex Caruso.

Oh, and Kanter was better than Jaylen and Hayward last year.

DWS tells me that Kemba is a better defender than Jrue Holiday.  Heck, Jrue has 86 guys in front of him, including noted defender Luka Doncic.

If your results are garbage, your metric is garbage.

All I did is post the numbers. Feel free to take them with a grain of salt. At the end of the day, there's no perfect metric. When it comes to evaluating players, all evaluation methods are subjective.

[jambr380]

Kevin Pelton of ESPN gives the Thunder an A and the Lakers a C.

I don't get it.

me neither..should be other way around

I guess because the Thunder are likely to get 2 1sts (or whatever they get for Green) out of an expiring contract of a player they don't have long-term plans for; while it is more of a sideways move for the Lakers. Schroder for Rondo/Green/1st isn't terrible, but it doesn't make them considerably better or anything.

Two firsts for a 33-year-old role player? Wow! Not to mention, he's on a $15,365,853 contract. Whomever wants to trade for Green, they gotta match salaries for him. For instance, the C's have no realistic way to trade for Green. Unless a contending team is looking to dump around $15M worth of salary, it's likely that Green will become a buyout candidate. I'm too lazy to check this out at the moment. But then again, if such a team existed, I guess the Thunder would have expanded the trade to make it a 3-way deal.

I meant the 1st they got for Schroder plus the likely late 1st they can get for Green; not two 1sts for Green. I know you are using the Cs as an example - and they might be one of the worst examples in the league in terms of tradeable contracts - but if Kanter opted in, it even gets a lot easier for us to cobble together a deal.

Contending teams value championship pedigree. It's almost laughable how much success Green has had in recent years. Even if he is just a good luck charm at this point (he is not - he definitely has value as a role player in an Iguodala capacity), there are a number of teams who would love to have his experience on the bench and would be happy to give up a late 1st to make it happen.

[Somebody]

The Lakers are getting fleeced in this trade , a middling efficiency point guard who creates at a moderate rate (he can definitely play off the ball, but I'd assume the Lakers would want him to run the offence when LeBron is resting) isn't what they really need compared to one of the best 3 and D players in the league. Feel that they can sign some perimeter firepower in FA and have those players share offensive duties with KCP when LeBron is resting.

One of the best 3 and D guys?  Not last year. 36% perimeter shooting and okay defense only.

Schroder was a better outside shooter last year.

Don't think his defence was just okay last year - he was able to defend the wing positions (and even a bit of guard) at a pretty high level, he was a key cog for the Laker defence being so elite.

And Schroeder's next best season from three was 35.1%, I'd take a guy who shot over 40% for numerous seasons (he did it last season in Toronto so it's not like he's washed) over him in three point shooting.

You’re a metrics guy.  Can you point me to something showing that he was particularly good at shooting or defense last year?

2019/20 regular season

Defense
Defensive box plus/minus: +1.5
Defensive win shares: 2.5 (his worst number since the 2011/12 season, but still pretty good)
Defensive RAPTOR: +2.1

Shooting
eFG%: 54.2
TS%: 55.2 (league average was 56.3)

Exluding TS%, all the other figures are above league average (to say the least).

So the standard is “above league average” for a guy at the “top” tier of 3-and-D players?  And he can’t even hit that in terms of his shooting efficiency?

His defensive metrics are way above average.

He ranked 22nd in the league in defensive box plus/minus (3rd at the SG position).

He ranked 42nd in the league in defensive win shares (5th at his position).

He ranked 39th in the league in defensive RAPTOR (6th at his position).

The above rankings are among qualifying players.

You can find all the numbers here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dws

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

^^^this. He's also 57th overall in 3-year DRAPM from 2017-2020 (one year NPI samples can be very noisy and PI data doesn't exist for seasons after 2015), so he's been one of the best defensive wings in the league in recent years. Above average three point shooting + borderline elite wing defence = one of the best 3 and D wings in the league imo, not many role players are good to great at both of these things.

Is that the metric that uses height, age and stats from prior years?  Or is there a difference between the meaningless numbers DRPM spits out, versus the meaningless numbers DRAPM suggests?

At least both are more meaningful than whatever your basic slash line of PPG/RPG/APG spits out . But no RAPM is basically play-by-play and on/off data that gets very reliable in multiyear samples (obviously you get the occasional Nick Collison who's just in the right place at the right time for years under KD/RW, but it's a pretty good indicator of situational value - it has Giannis and Embiid topping the defensive part of the metric from 2017-2020 and Gobert in the top 10).

I think this thread talks about the strengths and weaknesses of impact metrics like RPM/RAPM/RAPTOR/etc pretty well: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1896624

[td450]

Just saw that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is seriously looking at other free agent offers. If they lose him, the only roster player who can match up against bigger guards is Caruso. Danny Green was past his prime, but he was still their main big guard option.

It will be interesting to see who else they attract. Its a little annoying watching them attract players jumping on the bandwagon for less money.

[wiley]

If they're happy letting Rondo go, that's a very big mistake, Unless Schroeder can mesh perfectly and repeat his awesome year.

I think this may be a case of being greedy and overconfident...where they don't realize the effect Rondo had on that team...the greedy part being just looking at Schroeder's stats and saying wow we can be even better...without considering chemistry.  Maybe that team has found itself, but prior to Rondo coming back they looked a bit lost.  I'm not a good judge of Schroeder's PG skills (in the getting everyone involved, leading the team, taking pressure of Lebron sense), so willing to be wrong.

[PhoSita]

Love that the Lakers can turn a late 1st round pick into a sixth man candidate while the Celts are gonna struggle to move up even a few spots in the draft by packaging multiple 1st rounders.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Seriously, last year Schroeder was one of the least effective, worst advanced stats, poorest defensive, overpaid players in the NBA. Then he plays all his moments next to Chris Paul and suddenly he's a superstar.

I really think the Lakers got worse with this deal.

[Rondo9]

Love that the Lakers can turn a late 1st round pick into a sixth man candidate while the Celts are gonna struggle to move up even a few spots in the draft by packaging multiple 1st rounders.

He's on the last year of his contract, not many teams were going to line up for that.