Celtics' Isaiah Thomas is a fourth-quarter killer, but which team is he killing?

[celticsclay]

Isaiah was a minus 10 last night.
Crowder was a plus 7 and Smart was a plus 11.
But Isaiah has the guts and ability to make the big shots down the stretch. A lot of players on this team are afraid to take shots when the pressure is on.
I don't know the answer, but I like the idea of Fultz as our future point guard.

Yeah I agree. Thing about +/- stat is that while it can give you a lot of info about how a player impacts a game, its not foolproof. Not all minutes are equal. We sit down Thomas in the last 2 minutes and Im certain Crowder and Smart's +7 and +11 respectively will come down and we lose.

Who was on the floor in this game a lot while IT was on the floor?

Andre Drummond, that's who.   Did everybody forget about him?   It just so happens that AD and IT were on the floor for almost the exact same minutes of this game.  IT was -10 mainly because AD was +12.

For IT to be "-10" in the game, that means points were scored by Detroit, right?  Well HOW were they scoring them?

They were scoring them with a ton of second-chance points based primarily on Drummond's rebounding dominance.   Detroit's three best big men, Drummond (28), Morris (13) and Harris (15) combined to score 56 points -- almost all of that in the paint (Morris made one 3PT shot).

Was all that dominance near the post Isaiah's fault?  Is he supposed to be defending the bigs now?

Five of the points that CAN be charged directly to Isaiah came on the two fouls on the KCP 3PT shot attempts that gave the latter 6 FT attempts (KCP made 5 of them).

But otherwise, the Pistons made hardly any of their shots from outside and their two starting guards shot horribly.  KCP shot 5 of 16, getting 5 of his 18 points from the two aforementioned plays and Jackson shot 4 of 12 and was in deep foul trouble all game.

Down the stretch Detroit absolutely feasted on Thomas. Thomas was absolutely helpless against him. Thing is, with about 5 minutes left Isaiah became unstoppable and the defense shortcomings became irrelevant.

What does that mean?  WHO "feasted on Thomas"?  Which player and how?

Per NBA/SportsVU player tracking, in the 4th period Thomas defended 3 DFGA, giving up 2 makes and he also got called for the two fouls I mentioned.  That's it.  That amounts to 9 points, over half of that came on the two fouls, one of which Stevens was howling at the refs over.

In the 4th period, Detroit's big men, Drummond, Morris, Harris and Leuer combined to score 22 points.   Which of those points were Isaiah's fault?

You do realize you can't use facts against a hot take right?

[celticsclay]

I watched some of the Detroit game replay today on NBA TV. The Celtics led by 11 early in the 4Q before IT took over. They won by 4 after he scored a barrel of points.

One thing I noticed about IT is he took a lot of 3s without waiting for anybody to get up the court with him. He pushed the ball up, stopped at the 3P line and shot the ball. Much of the time, he missed. No 2nd shot, since there were no Celtics near the basket for the OR. He also drove, recklessly at times, to the basket, missing layups and hitting some. Nobody else touched the ball.

The Celtics game is traditionally pass for the best shot--the game Pop copied for his Spurs successfully.

The Celtics clearly could benefit from another offensive player. A guy who can take the offensive pressure off IT. Nobody on the team seems to be able to do it. IT is the perfect fantasy player right now, but I'm not sure he's the perfect team player.

IT went 3-6 from 3 in the 4th.  Based on the play-by-play, his three misses occurred 8 seconds into the shot clock, 17 seconds on the shot clock, and 15 seconds on the shot clock.  So what you're talking about happened at most once.  His makes occurred 13, 15, and 18 seconds into the shot clock.

Respectfully, I think you carried a bit of pre-judgment into your reviewing and saw something that didn't actually happen.

x2

[RockinRyA]

Isaiah was a minus 10 last night.
Crowder was a plus 7 and Smart was a plus 11.
But Isaiah has the guts and ability to make the big shots down the stretch. A lot of players on this team are afraid to take shots when the pressure is on.
I don't know the answer, but I like the idea of Fultz as our future point guard.

Yeah I agree. Thing about +/- stat is that while it can give you a lot of info about how a player impacts a game, its not foolproof. Not all minutes are equal. We sit down Thomas in the last 2 minutes and Im certain Crowder and Smart's +7 and +11 respectively will come down and we lose.

Who was on the floor in this game a lot while IT was on the floor?

Andre Drummond, that's who.   Did everybody forget about him?   It just so happens that AD and IT were on the floor for almost the exact same minutes of this game.  IT was -10 mainly because AD was +12.

For IT to be "-10" in the game, that means points were scored by Detroit, right?  Well HOW were they scoring them?

They were scoring them with a ton of second-chance points based primarily on Drummond's rebounding dominance.   Detroit's three best big men, Drummond (28), Morris (13) and Harris (15) combined to score 56 points -- almost all of that in the paint (Morris made one 3PT shot).

Was all that dominance near the post Isaiah's fault?  Is he supposed to be defending the bigs now?

Five of the points that CAN be charged directly to Isaiah came on the two fouls on the KCP 3PT shot attempts that gave the latter 6 FT attempts (KCP made 5 of them).

But otherwise, the Pistons made hardly any of their shots from outside and their two starting guards shot horribly.  KCP shot 5 of 16, getting 5 of his 18 points from the two aforementioned plays and Jackson shot 4 of 12 and was in deep foul trouble all game.

You should chill, because I am not blaming Isaiah. In fact, I am saying the opposite thing.

[greece66]

@mmmmm

thanks for the reply.

beyond the basics, i understand little when it comes to stats and bball metrics. would be grateful if you explained in more detail.

[Ilikesports17]

Isaiah was a minus 10 last night.
Crowder was a plus 7 and Smart was a plus 11.
But Isaiah has the guts and ability to make the big shots down the stretch. A lot of players on this team are afraid to take shots when the pressure is on.
I don't know the answer, but I like the idea of Fultz as our future point guard.

Yeah I agree. Thing about +/- stat is that while it can give you a lot of info about how a player impacts a game, its not foolproof. Not all minutes are equal. We sit down Thomas in the last 2 minutes and Im certain Crowder and Smart's +7 and +11 respectively will come down and we lose.

Who was on the floor in this game a lot while IT was on the floor?

Andre Drummond, that's who.   Did everybody forget about him?   It just so happens that AD and IT were on the floor for almost the exact same minutes of this game.  IT was -10 mainly because AD was +12.

For IT to be "-10" in the game, that means points were scored by Detroit, right?  Well HOW were they scoring them?

They were scoring them with a ton of second-chance points based primarily on Drummond's rebounding dominance.   Detroit's three best big men, Drummond (28), Morris (13) and Harris (15) combined to score 56 points -- almost all of that in the paint (Morris made one 3PT shot).

Was all that dominance near the post Isaiah's fault?  Is he supposed to be defending the bigs now?

Five of the points that CAN be charged directly to Isaiah came on the two fouls on the KCP 3PT shot attempts that gave the latter 6 FT attempts (KCP made 5 of them).

But otherwise, the Pistons made hardly any of their shots from outside and their two starting guards shot horribly.  KCP shot 5 of 16, getting 5 of his 18 points from the two aforementioned plays and Jackson shot 4 of 12 and was in deep foul trouble all game.

Down the stretch Detroit absolutely feasted on Thomas. Thomas was absolutely helpless against him. Thing is, with about 5 minutes left Isaiah became unstoppable and the defense shortcomings became irrelevant.

What does that mean?  WHO "feasted on Thomas"?  Which player and how?

Per NBA/SportsVU player tracking, in the 4th period Thomas defended 3 DFGA, giving up 2 makes and he also got called for the two fouls I mentioned.  That's it.  That amounts to 9 points, over half of that came on the two fouls, one of which Stevens was howling at the refs over.

In the 4th period, Detroit's big men, Drummond, Morris, Harris and Leuer combined to score 22 points.   Which of those points were Isaiah's fault?

You do realize you can't use facts against a hot take right?

Caldewell pope had his way with Thomas. Also he was easily rubbed of on screens on a few plays forcing people to help and switch resulting in a) easy rebound opportunities and b)easier shots for Detroit that aren't technically defended but thomas.

[Darío SpanishFan]

This is more emphasized here in Euro basketball and I watch it with maybe other eyes than you in America in terms of two-sided game and showtime. His defense in the fourth quarters is as extreme as his offense. Nothing to everything, that's why I tell you that he would be benched by many Euro coaches.

What I have been thinking for some heroic games by the tiny guy is that he had to extinguish the fires he had been creating.

Don't misinterpret me. I enjoy a lot watching him being the best at the end of games attacking the rim and raining threes, and Thomas is the face of this franchise... but this article shows in numbers a reality. Is he really a max guy to be the first option in a championship team or should we try to deal him at his peak market value? That is the biggest question next summer.

Um I don't mean to be rude but I think that's why euros haven't won against usa basketball for quite a long time lol

You are not rude. You are mixing different things and not getting the main idea. It happens when you don't read carefully or don't have the ability to do so.

BTW, in the last decade, USA teams with good NBA players have lost to European teams, in terms of franchises and national teams. It didn't happen before. But this is not the point here, so leave it.

[Celtics4ever]

Caldewell pope had his way with Thomas. Also he was easily rubbed of on screens on a few plays forcing people to help and switch resulting in a) easy rebound opportunities and b)easier shots for Detroit that aren't technically defended but thomas.

Pope was 5 for 16.

http://www.nba.com/games/20170130/DETBOS#/boxscore

That is not having your way with someone that is shooting 30%, your memory does not match what happened.

IT4 was much better

http://www.nba.com/games/20170130/DETBOS#/boxscore

[celts55]

So, maybe slightly off topic, but how come Stevens doesn't sub IT out on defense late in the 4th?
An example would be this last game, Celtics up by 2 and he's in the game on D? Many other teams used a offense/defense rotation late in the game, but I don't really recall Stevens using it.
Just a thought.

[hodgy03038]

So, maybe slightly off topic, but how come Stevens doesn't sub IT out on defense late in the 4th?
An example would be this last game, Celtics up by 2 and he's in the game on D? Many other teams used a offense/defense rotation late in the game, but I don't really recall Stevens using it.
Just a thought.

I was thinking the same thing after a timeout when I saw IT walking back on the floor. I don't remember the timeout situation or time left but I am sure it must have been because they needed to have IT out there on the next inbounds play to take the foul and hit the free throws rather than having someone else have that pressure of the free throws.

[TrueFan]

You guys are complaining about a guy who has been a consensus top 5 MVP candidate this year. 

Last week he was in three top fives. NBA.com, cbssports and one other that I'm forgetting.

The people complaining in this thread probably still think IT should come off the bench and apparently they also believe he shouldn't finish games.

[Chris22]

You guys are complaining about a guy who has been a consensus top 5 MVP candidate this year. 

Last week he was in three top fives. NBA.com, cbssports and one other that I'm forgetting.

The people complaining in this thread probably still think IT should come off the bench and apparently they also believe he shouldn't finish games.

I think IT should come off the bench and finish games. Like he did last year.

[saltlover]

You guys are complaining about a guy who has been a consensus top 5 MVP candidate this year. 

Last week he was in three top fives. NBA.com, cbssports and one other that I'm forgetting.

The people complaining in this thread probably still think IT should come off the bench and apparently they also believe he shouldn't finish games.

I think IT should come off the bench and finish games. Like he did last year.

You mean like he did for all of three games last season in which we were 1-2?

Heck, maybe we should just sit him altogether, considering we're 1-3 without him.

[Rosco917]

The name of the game is, will you or will you not win a championship with IT being the starting point guard. Does his offensive output, off set his liability on defense?

No doubt, he's a valuable player, it fact a historical player, when considering his size. And if you're collecting jerseys... go for it.


But the question must be asked...

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I think his ridiculously good offense more than offsets his defensive shortcomings.

And I've said this before, but I'll say it again: There are some Celtics fans who complain about "good offense/bad defense" players, but they're perfectly content with "bad offense/good defense" players, and I don't know why that is. Offense and defense are equally important, and there should be an overall balance on a team. If we're not going to throw away smart for his wretched shooting, we shouldn't throw away IT because he's short.

[kozlodoev]

I think his ridiculously good offense more than offsets his defensive shortcomings.

And I've said this before, but I'll say it again: There are some Celtics fans who complain about "good offense/bad defense" players, but they're perfectly content with "bad offense/good defense" players, and I don't know why that is. Offense and defense are equally important, and there should be an overall balance on a team. If we're not going to throw away smart for his wretched shooting, we shouldn't throw away IT because he's short.

No, this argument is fundamentally flawed.

Defense (and rebounding for that matter) are reactive. You don't really control where the ball is going to go, so everyone needs to be able to defend and rebound.

On offense, you have control, so you can and will choose to run offense through your best offensive players. Sure, it may make you somewhat more predictable, but defensive-minded players with limited offensive skills can have long and productive NBA careers, and that is for a good reason.