Celtics' Isaiah Thomas is a fourth-quarter killer, but which team is he killing?

[otherdave]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/celtics-isaiah-thomas-is-a-fourth-quarter-killer-but-which-team-is-he-killing/

Here a link to a CBS Sports article.  Pretty in-depth look into what is going on during the 4th quarter.  A lot of number crunching went on here.  It supports what I thought I was seeing.  Nice to know that I am not totally crazy.

What do you all think about this?

[TrueFan]

The problem is the three guard lineup Brad likes to use down the stretch. It's not IT's fault that Brad consistently surrounds him with a smallish lineup. It's Brad's go to lineup in the fourth and it's the reason the defense suffers so much.

[jpotter33]

Makes you pretty hesitant to add someone like Melo, huh?

It's not all IT's fault. He's terrible defensively due to his size, but playing Horford at the 4 also hurts us significantly due to his inability to guard out on the perimeter with stretch 4's, along with being smaller throughout the rest of the lineup.

It's no coincidence that we've played better with both JJ and Brown in the lineup to give us much more overall size. But in addition to more size, it gives our defenders the ability to actually play their natural positions defensively. Masslive posted last night just how dominant the trio of IT, Crowder, and JJ has been the last three years due to Crowder's and JJ's ability to stretch the floor while also defend at a high level:

One reason, Stevens said, is how well Jerebko plays alongside Isaiah Thomas.

"(Jerebko is) a guy that can space the floor," Stevens said before topping the Pistons, 113-109. "He's a guy that, when you have paint attacks, when you have more threats, obviously, he can be at his best, whether it's shooting or driving against the closeouts. "

During Jerebko's two-plus seasons with the Celtics, the team has dominated opponents when he shares the court with Thomas and Jae Crowder. The reasons seem simple; Crowder and Jerebko can both space the floor for their high-scoring teammate while covering, with length and mobility, for some of Thomas' defensive shortcomings. Over 185 minutes this season, that trio currently holds a +19.8 net rating, according to NBA.com. That's a tiny sample size, but the trend held last year (+15.9) and the season before that (+28.3). Ever since they all played on the bench -- which sounds weird now -- the Celtics have been killers with Thomas, Crowder and Jerebko on the court.

Now those guys are all starting -- and still finding similar results. Since Jerebko entered the first unit, the trio has racked up a +30.8 net rating over 78 minutes together, according to NBA.com. The Celtics always score with Thomas on the court, but have also defended at elite levels when he's surrounded by Jerebko and Crowder. During minutes with those three players, the Celtics have allowed 99.6 points per 100 possessions -- a defensive rating that would lead the NBA among all teams. If that number holds steady, it would be a huge deal for a club that has failed too frequently to make up for Thomas' defensive limitations.

That's crazy good and efficient.

It shows you the type of players that we need to be surrounding IT with - specifically "3 and D" type stretch 4's that give IT space offensively while also covering for his defensive weaknesses. Millsap and Ibaka come to mind as best fits for this mold, but Noel would also certainly work with his defensive abilities on the perimeter. He'd also provide an excellent roll man and lob partner for IT offensively.

[Darío SpanishFan]

This is more emphasized here in Euro basketball and I watch it with maybe other eyes than you in America in terms of two-sided game and showtime. His defense in the fourth quarters is as extreme as his offense. Nothing to everything, that's why I tell you that he would be benched by many Euro coaches.

What I have been thinking for some heroic games by the tiny guy is that he had to extinguish the fires he had been creating.

Don't misinterpret me. I enjoy a lot watching him being the best at the end of games attacking the rim and raining threes, and Thomas is the face of this franchise... but this article shows in numbers a reality. Is he really a max guy to be the first option in a championship team or should we try to deal him at his peak market value? That is the biggest question next summer.

[CelticPride2016]

That article is solid and why there is a debate whether or not to resign him at $30 million/per year if he maintains this excellence.

Yes, get rid of the three guard stuff. Just say no.
Yes, we could use a nice center.

As for rebounding, we seem to be doing much better the last several games. So it is obvious the C's are aware it has been a problem. An added big who can rebound, block shots and fit in with Horford, Olynyk and Amir could help to hide Isaiah's height.

Isaiah is clearly better than other little guys such as Nate Robinson, but there is still a trade off for him being the main cog. The article articulates that. The writer doesn't say it can't work out, but he clearly implies that the do nothing approach would be fool's gold.

One thing Isaiah does do well is eat up minutes. We'd be lost without him without another decent point guard to pair with Marcus. The biggest problem with Isaiah might not be his height, but that a future contract would take up too much cap space. The article clearly shows that the other players are doing some of Isaiah's work. It's not his fault he's so short, but it's something to consider. It's why waiters take care of the busboys. It's about team. Other teams look like failures because they have their divas like Butler and Wade. Those kind of teams lack chemistry.

I'm not Danny. I have no clue what he's thinking. And Isaiah is signed through next year anyway. It's too early to worry about too much.

[oldtype]

On the bright side, all we have to do is make the defense not terrible and we'll be ridiculously amazing.  Our defense was good with IT on the floor last year.  It's possible.  Make it happen Brad.

[footey]

No way I would trade Isaiah, he is too dang fun to watch, and is one of the top 3 - 5 guys in the entire league in being able to create his own shot both inside and outside the 3 point line. We can make up for any defensive deficiencies with his team-mates.  We would never get good enough trade value for IT.

[coffee425]

Any celtics fan that have watched them for more than 3 games knows this.

Any objective celtics fan would not call IT4 a franchise player because of this.

[Chris22]

Isaiah was a minus 10 last night.
Crowder was a plus 7 and Smart was a plus 11.
But Isaiah has the guts and ability to make the big shots down the stretch. A lot of players on this team are afraid to take shots when the pressure is on.
I don't know the answer, but I like the idea of Fultz as our future point guard.

[TrueFan]

IT4 is a top 5 MVP candidate. Stop with the hate.

[greece66]

Well written and balanced.

I'll be following Matt Moore from now on.

PS CBS sports often gives me trouble. This page would keep re-loading until I turned off my adblocker; not good.

[Chris22]

In reading the article again, it seems to say that going small in the fourth quarter doesn't work.
Which I used to say when Doc Rivers did it all the time.

[LGC88]

Momentum is the key. When Brad benched IT during the 4th (or when he was injured), the team slowly run out of offense solutions when defense becomes tighter.
Thomas provides energy, solutions, confidence. Too much confidence in fact, that's why our defense is not good enough specially in the 4th.
Anyway, last year top 5 defense, so no excuses.  Coaches, Danny and the players have to figure this out soon.

[SHAQATTACK]

Well written and balanced.

I'll be following Matt Moore from now on.

PS CBS sports often gives me trouble. This page would keep re-loading until I turned off my adblocker; not good.

I read it earlier myself and concluded the same.  We have bloggers saying some things every game.   Defense takes advantage of him .  No doubt......but as long as he is able to offset with more offense I guess we're re good until we meet the great loaded teams ....LOL

[Darío SpanishFan]

This year's playoffs will be the proof, when you have to attack and defend very good players daily. Maybe that input will show our management which route to follow with IT.

Some TPs here for such good opinions