I Feel Like Ainge's Entire Tenure has Lead to This Summer.

[LarBrd33]

I was browsing a bit in response to the various, "let's revisit our predictions from last summer!" threads and I found this article I wrote as a CB fanpost three years ago:

http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/2/22/4016162/doom-despair-or-danny-has-a-plan

This was my intro:

Just to get the punch line out of the way: Yes. Danny has a plan.

Actually - he has more than one plan. But they all lead basically to the same place - rebooting the team as a contender somewhere around 2016. So collectively, let's call them: The Plan

There is a lot of discussion of roster & contract details only relevant at the time (some look stupid in hindsight) but leading to the punch line summary:

In summary: Relax.

All roads through The Plan(tm) in the end, lead to a similar destination: Acquire the next superstar players somewhere around the 2016 season. Depending on the market, we may have to wait a year or so after that point. But that's the point at which Danny will have the tools to pull the big trigger.

The main point of the article is that Danny laid out contracts and roster construction starting years ago that basically have, indeed lead up to this point, right now.   If you paid attention to what he was doing back then, you could see it coming.  Sorta.  Obviously, as the article points out, there were a lot of optional paths along the way, but they all were leading here.

I'm guessing (based on Ainge's own comments) that getting Isaiah a year early was probably a bit of a deviation - found gold as it were - but Danny's plan seems pretty clearly robust enough to have taken that sort of variable in.

Typically GM's say they have something like a 3-5 year plan to return a team to contention.   Ainge is one of the only GM's I've ever seen pull that off.  He took over as GM in 2003, collected his assets, and officially turned it around in 2007 when we landed KG after a bottom-out year.   Right in the 3-5 year window.

It's one of the reasons I don't judge Hinkie's tenure yet.  He was just hired in May 2013.  It hasn't even been 3 years and four of their most valuable assets have yet to play on the team.   It would have been interesting to see if he pulled it off within the 3-5 year window, but the assets will remain as Colangelo takes over.  They are still on the clock.

Ainge's second attempt started in June 2013 when he officially traded away KG and Pierce.   It's coming right up on 3 years for him as well.  Next couple years will be right in the Window.   I think the difference between these situations is Philly didn't care at all about the short term.  They are in a similar position to where the pre-KG Celtics were.  It's a team that hasn't been relevant for a while - so who cares if they go through a few years of garbage.  Boston, on the other hand, wanted to maintain a level of competitiveness.  Coming from a team with 4 all-stars, they likely had more firepower to flip for future assets.  And even though they bottomed out in 2014, there is some pressure and possibly some incentive in remaining in the middle of the pack.  This could have the added benefit of making us a major player in free agency, whereas Philly's plan seems to entirely revolve around draft and trade options (like Boston in 2007).  I see both as being in great position heading into this Summer.  Both need some luck.  Both need to make wise moves.   Philly's best prospect/pick trade assets are still better than Boston's best prospect/pick trade assets, but I give Boston the edge right now simply because they are a bigger free agent threat and Crowder/Thomas are now seen as pretty substantial pieces.

I disagree with the part in bold.  I think that Ainge started the rebuild earlier than that trade with the drafting of the very-young-at-the-time-of-the-draft Bradley and Sullinger and by carefully setting up all his contracts (Bass, Rondo, Green, etc.) to expire by this summer.  Yes, he traded most of them away, but he was careful not to bring in any longer term big contracts in their place.  Any that he had kept (Bass, for example) would not tie him down because they would just expire.  If he had kept Green, it would be expiring now.   Even when he made the Pierce-KG trade, he was careful in that Wallace' incoming contract fit the same horizon (later flipped for Lee's which also fit this horizon).

Well you might be right about the rebuild starting a bit earlier.  In which case, we should create a thread apologizing to Ray Allen for bailing when he did.  He apparently saw what the team was doing and realized he'd be wasting his final years in a team that was ready to start over.    While we're at it, we should apologize to Doc Rivers for deciding he didn't want to sit through a team that was on the verge of tanking.

Either way, we're right on track for a 3-5 year rebuild. 

[SHAQATTACK]

We should Thank Rivers for leaving,  saw how bad he was with younger teams on the rebuild .

We wouldn't break 35 wins with Rivers coaching this team.

[LarBrd33]

We should Thank Rivers for leaving,  saw how bad he was with younger teams on the rebuild .

We wouldn't break 35 wins with Rivers coaching this team.

True.  I'll always have a soft spot for Doc, but Brad Stevens has proven to be a phenomenal young coach.

[mmmmm]

We should Thank Rivers for leaving,  saw how bad he was with younger teams on the rebuild .

We wouldn't break 35 wins with Rivers coaching this team.

Which particular "younger teams on the rebuild" are you referring to that you "saw how bad he was with"?   Between Orlando and Boston, Doc has had to coach a few of those.

in his 16 full seasons of coaching, he's only failed to win at least 39 games twice.  And the 39 win season was in the lock-out-shortened 66 game year.

[mmmmm]

Well you might be right about the rebuild starting a bit earlier.  In which case, we should create a thread apologizing to Ray Allen for bailing when he did.  He apparently saw what the team was doing and realized he'd be wasting his final years in a team that was ready to start over.    While we're at it, we should apologize to Doc Rivers for deciding he didn't want to sit through a team that was on the verge of tanking.

I don't get why we'd have to apologize to either Ray or Doc.   This is an entertainment business.  They left for business reasons.

[Vermont Green]

We should Thank Rivers for leaving,  saw how bad he was with younger teams on the rebuild .

We wouldn't break 35 wins with Rivers coaching this team.

I think people in general are too critical of Doc.  He won coach of the year in 2000 for coaching an overachieving young Orlando team.  He also coached some bad teams here in Boston before Ray and KG arrived and those teams always played hard.

You can do a lot worse than Doc Rivers in terms of NBA coaches whether you are a veteran team or a young team.  In fact I think Doc has the cache to coach veteran teams that most coaches don't have.  But that doesn't mean he can't coach a young team.

[HuskerCeltic]

This is a great thread.

I think the most compelling point is that we have Danny Ainge + Brad Stevens. We potentially have the best GM and Coach for the next 10 years.

[flybono]

Not your fault you missed the Bird era.

I've been following this team since age 10 which was 76. I watched the Suns series on a 13" black and white..

Many of us old timers on the board are glass half empty fans due to the fact we have seen the dynasty years and have seen Celtic basketball at its best.

Since the Bird era the game has changed big time. College players come out way to early which waters down the skill level due to inexperience from a physical and mental makeup.

There were only 23 Teams in the Bird era which makes a big difference far as individual talent per roster.

Money factor today is another huge obstacle dealing within the salary cap.

In today's NBA you need a little bit of talent and a whole Lotta luck!

[LarBrd33]

Not your fault you missed the Bird era.

I've been following this team since age 10 which was 76. I watched the Suns series on a 13" black and white..

Many of us old timers on the board are glass half empty fans due to the fact we have seen the dynasty years and have seen Celtic basketball at its best.

Since the Bird era the game has changed big time. College players come out way to early which waters down the skill level due to inexperience from a physical and mental makeup.

There were only 23 Teams in the Bird era which makes a big difference far as individual talent per roster.

Money factor today is another huge obstacle dealing within the salary cap.

In today's NBA you need a little bit of talent and a whole Lotta luck!

I think there's a ton of reason for optimism this Summer.  The team was so poorly managed for so long.  You had terrible owners like Paul Gaston.  Terrible GM's like Chris Wallace.  Terrible coaches like ML Carr.   These days, we have a phenomenal organization top-to-bottom, we have plenty of assets, and significant cap space for the first time in the franchise's history.   I'm very excited about the possibilities.

[CoachBo]

That depends.

We have too many draft picks, and some need to be converted into experienced on-court help. This summer.

As I have said in other threads: Assets have no value if you cannot convert them into help on the floor.

Another summer of nothing but the draft is unacceptable. It is time for Ainge to turn those alleged assets, assets he's been largely unable to convert into help, into on-floor value now.

I have made my skepticism of Ainge's alleged status as a draft savant - which is a myth generated by this board - very clear. The Celtics' future is in FAR better hands with Ainge trading than it is drafting.

Time for Danny to recognize the market for what it is and deal.

[Celtics4ever]

I think there's a ton of reason for optimism this Summer.  The team was so poorly managed for so long.  You had terrible owners like Paul Gaston.  Terrible GM's like Chris Wallace.  Terrible coaches like ML Carr.   These days, we have a phenomenal organization top-to-bottom, we have plenty of assets, and significant cap space for the first time in the franchise's history.   I'm very excited about the possibilities.

Don't let Slick Rick Craptino off the hook either.