It could come and go with no results - but it's worth recognizing that this is indeed a special offseason.
I am very interested to see what happens.
Just saying, I felt similarly the last couple of summers and there were mixed results. Got excited thinking about the possibilities of what could happen, thrilled at every rumor of a big trade or whatever, and what actually happened was nothing like that.
This summer is laden with possibility, no doubt. But we know with Ainge that if he doesn't feel like he can win the game playing his hand this turn he'll just discard and wait till the deadline, or next summer.
I mean, it's kind of the same reason I defend Philly's plan. They have put themselves in a position where they will have opportunities. These were opportunities their tank plan afforded them. They still might fall on their face, though. Hopefully they do.
Personally, I feel like Boston is in a far better position than they were last offseason. There's some factors.
#1 - I would have felt like a jinx had I taken that Brooklyn pick seriously. They made the playoffs 3 years in a row. It seemed if they had remained healthy, they could have still spoiled our party. They had a couple guys go down and their lack of depth proved to be an issue. Yeah, I get that the majority of people here expected Brooklyn to be a bottom team. I get that they faltered with Lopez playing the majority of the season. Bottom line is that I don't count chickens when it comes to my team's eggs. I'd just set myself up for disappointment. And if guys like Bill Simmons are to be believed, Ainge was willing to give up that Brooklyn pick last offseason as part of the failed Charlotte offer - so I don't think the Celtics were necessarily operating under the assumption that pick was a lock to be gold. Now as we approach the end of the season, that pick is HUGE. It's a lock to be top 6 and has a shot to net a star prospect. That's a big deal for us and opens up a lot of possibilities.
#2 - Last offseason, the general consensus was that the team was loaded with decent players, but arguably no starting-caliber talent. Fair or unfair, guys like Jae Crowder had yet to prove their viability as starters (most saw him as a quality bench guy). Fair or unfair, Isaiah Thomas was seen as a change-of-pace gimmicky 6th man (a role he started the season at). Fair or unfair, fans around here were ready to flat-out cut Jared Sullinger from the team. The perception of the team, fair or unfair, was of a flukey group of overachievers who thanks to a boy wonder coach managed to go on a run during the tail end of the season at the detriment of their own draft pick. A pointless 4 game sweep at the hands of the Cavs was our reward. There was considerable doubt that free agents would take a below .500 team like Boston seriously in spite of their hot finish. Apparently, free agents like Kevin Love didn't even bother having meetings with us. Flash forward a year, and the team has solidified their standing as a legitimate playoff team. Crowder has made a leap and is receiving praise throughout the league. Thomas proved that he was capable of putting up big stats for a winning playoff team and not just a gimmicky guard who put up empty stats for losers - an appearance in the all-star game authenticated his talent. Guys like Avery Bradley have received an uptick in trade value through osmosis of starting and contributing for quality playoff teams. His stats are almost identical to his numbers two seasons ago (15 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.5 steals with 44%.36%/78% shooting), but a player putting up those numbers for a bottom 6 team is looked at differently than a player putting up those numbers 45+ win playoff team. The effect is a micro scale version of the early Tom Bradley Patriots. The first year Bradley won, folks still questioned if they were a fluke. After prolonged success, they were seen as legitimate. For the Celtics, succeeding for the second year in a row and having young players step up have legitimized them as a real team. I doubt anyone would dare suggest Boston is still a team full of 6th men this year and yet the players haven't changed. This also legitimizes Brad Stevens as a coach. This will only be furthered if the team manages to win a playoff series or two. This has to impact how free agents see the team at this point.
#3 - The team didn't have double-max cap space last Summer. The cap hadn't yet leaped 20 mil. There also was a real lack of impact free agents hitting the market. We could have made offers for a Tobias Harris or Khris Middleton (both restricted free agents), but Danny had his eye on bigger fish. The team made the conscious decision to "let it ride" into next offseason (not terribly different than Philly "letting it ride" by setting up their team for a whirlwind Summer). Boston has incentive to remain competitive, though. So we saw a couple "kill two birds with one stone" moves to help the team stay competitive in the short term, maximize their trade options during the course of the season, and not impact their long-term goals. That was the trade for David Lee (bringing on a 15 mil tradeable expiring contract and a veteran player who could presumably contribute) and the 1 year unguaranteed Amir Johnson contract (a 12 mil overpay from a solid starting role player filling a glaring defensive need - whose contract could have been a crucial part of a blockbuster trade if one presented itself). Lee obviously didn't work out here. Johnson is a key part of our team this year. Obviously, Boston didn't find a deal that they felt was worth pouncing on. But because of these "let it ride" moves, the team now is positioned to offer two max contracts to big name talent - while still maintaining every valuable player, pick and young prospect at their disposal. Truthfully, the team still has logjams at certain positions. There are redundancies on this roster. But Ainge (much like the most hated man in America, Sam Hinkie) realized that it was better to let the problems remain, hoard the assets, and address the concerns when there was more clarity in the offseason. Double-max cap space is a unique situation for the Celtics to be in. In-fact, I'm not sure the team has ever been in the position at any time during their history. Being able to pitch multiple impact free agents on the team's vision will be big. Sure, it might still be a failure, but the key thing is that we have opportunities at our disposal that we didn't have beforehand.
#4 - Worth mentioning is that unlike last offseason, there's a handful of substantial free agents available this season. Not just Kevin Durant, but veteran guys who can be unrestricted free agents like Dwayne Wade, Pau Gasol, Al Horford, DeRozan, Dwight Howard, Mike Conley, Hassan Whiteside, Chandler Parsons, Al Jefferson, Ryan Anderson, Nicholas Batum, Joakim Noah, etc. Some of them less desirable than others. Obviously tons of teams will have cap space. But Boston is uniquely positioned in terms of young core, system, management, ownership, coaching and national market size that essentially every free agent will need to put the Celtics on their meeting list.
#5 - The double-max cap space in addition to bountiful assets (like Marcus Smart and 1st rounders) put us in great position to land impact talent via trade while absorbing contracts. This is a position unique for this team's history though we had utilized trade exceptions in the past to absorb contracts. We could, theoretically, trade for a guy making 20 mil per year without sending back 20 mil in salaries. In fact, you could even land a highly paid star and take on a team's bad contracts in the process if the deal is contingent on that. Say the Knicks are ready to dump Melo, but require us to take on the contract of Robin Lopez. Absorbing 37mil in salary is an actual possibility (some crazy trade like Smart, Dallas 1st, Boston 1st for Melo+Lopez will make some Celtic fans cringe, but it's something that could actually be financially feasible thanks to our cap situation). It opens up even more opportunities for us and makes prospective trades (such as a massive package for Demarcus Cousins or Kevin Love) even more viable.
We have a lot going for us. THe only thing this team is lacking is a legitimate superstar draw and warm weather, but these could be overblown factors. Boston's other sports teams don't seem to have trouble luring top-tier talent. And as for double-max potential, we've seen teams in the past (Orlando comes to mind) land two max contract players without existing superstar talent as a draw (they nearly landed Duncan that Summer). Sure, in the case of Orlando (Grant Hill and Tracy McGrady), it didn't entirely work out. But the point is, we'll have opportunities. Everything Ainge has done has lead to this perfect storm. This could be the most crucial offseason we've ever had. And yes, there's some fans who claim every offseason is huge, but that's usually based on unreasonable expectations ("OMG, the guy we took 26th had 10 rebounds in a Summer League game... he might be the next Charles Barkley!"). What we're looking at this summer is legitimately exciting. It takes a lot for a deeply pessimistic fan like myself to admit that. So fwiw, I'll end this by saying that Boston Crowder/Thomas will probably have career ending injuries this week, the team will get swept in the 1st round, Brad Stevens will quit, the draft pick will end up 6th and turn into the next Anthony Bennett, the team will strike out in free agency, Ainge will retire, and the Celtics will hire Sam Hinkie setting themselves up for 50+ years of fruitless tanking. Phew... that feels better.
Topic: I Feel Like Ainge's Entire Tenure has Lead to This Summer. (Read 14635 times)