I like KO, but Giannis is beginning to look like a STUD.

[Boris Badenov]

Giannis is better than Kelly.  He was the steal of the 2013 draft, followed closely by Gobert.

(Gobert, by the way, who we never mention around here, would probably make an even bigger difference for the Celts)

Kelly is a nice player.  He's better than more than a few guys taken ahead of him in the 2013 draft, including the #1 overall pick.



This conversation is played out.  Even Smart versus Randle sounds more interesting at this point.

Yeah exactly. TP.

[The Oracle]

For the record, his net plus-minus (which is much more comparable across teams) is +2.1.

His Box plus-minus is +1.4. Also more comparable across teams.

Neither of these are perfect of course but they're much better than simple plus-minus, which has exactly the flaw you describe.

KO's numbers on the two stats above are +4.5 and +1.7, as comparison.

Net +/- tells you nothing across teams.  If you have a Net +/- of +2.1 on the Spurs it would be cause for alarm.  If you have a Net +/- of +2.1 on the Knicks having played significant minutes then that is a different story.

That's not true.

Net is the difference between the player's plus-minus with a player on the court, and with that player off the court.

For example LaMarcus Aldridge's net plus-minus this year is -4.0. Of course, the Spurs have a plus-minus of +11.6 with him on the court, because they lead the league in plus-minus.

But, it's +15.6 with him off the court. Hence his negative NET rating.

Do you think that Aldridge would have a net +/- of -4.0 on almost any other team?  Of course he would not and that is why it tells you nothing across teams.  He is not hurting the spurs its just that he is starting and the Spurs bench is far and away the most dominant bench in the league.  It makes his #'s look bad and that wouldn't happen on the knicks or some other team.  You absolutely can't use this and many other advanced statistics to rank players throughout the league because different players in different situations would create vastly different #'s.

[LooseCannon]

I will take shooting 41.3% from three over shooting 21.6 from three all day long!!!

Where would GA play??  Would we sit Crowder??  Heck NO IMHO!!!!

Smitty77

I am shocked that you don't want the guy with the higher PER this season.

[SHAQATTACK]

I'm good with KO

We were fortunate to get him.

He. Improves steadily .

KO s best days are still ahead of him.

Kinda like comparing apples and oranges .

Guys like KO playing low , not high flying tend to last longer .  I'll stick with KO.

[csfansince60s]

I am so sick of these threads.
Ainge is doing a great job.

TP...ANOTHER greek freak thread?? NO MORE PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...and TP to all those in this thread who have complained about too much Giannis talk.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda, man, if people lived their life thinking that way...WOW...

Guess what ALL these threads have in common?

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=74349.msg1764432#msg1764432

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=80909.msg1961868#msg1961868

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=81839.msg1995619#msg1995619

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=76218.msg1825288#msg1825288

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=74666.msg1776076#msg1776076

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=71791.msg1688199#msg1688199

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=68778.msg1594459#msg1594459

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=81392.msg1979159#msg1979159

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=79547.msg1920632#msg1920632

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=74546.msg1770928#msg1770928

That's right over 10 threads (i didn't list them all, there are more!!!) on this NON-CELTIC.....within the past year?

Obsession...get over it .

[BigAlTheFuture]

Olynyk improved a lot this year.

I'm pretty happy with the draft pick. If Giannis is the only guy to pick before Okynyk, I would say Ainge did well with that pick.

Ainge did well with Smart also. Besides Lavine, who many teams passed, who would you possibly take over him?

The misses are Young and Roz so far.

I still take Smart over Lavine

[guava_wrench]

For the record, his net plus-minus (which is much more comparable across teams) is +2.1.

His Box plus-minus is +1.4. Also more comparable across teams.

Neither of these are perfect of course but they're much better than simple plus-minus, which has exactly the flaw you describe.

KO's numbers on the two stats above are +4.5 and +1.7, as comparison.

Net +/- tells you nothing across teams.  If you have a Net +/- of +2.1 on the Spurs it would be cause for alarm.  If you have a Net +/- of +2.1 on the Knicks having played significant minutes then that is a different story.

That's not true.

Net is the difference between the player's plus-minus with a player on the court, and with that player off the court.

For example LaMarcus Aldridge's net plus-minus this year is -4.0. Of course, the Spurs have a plus-minus of +11.6 with him on the court, because they lead the league in plus-minus.

But, it's +15.6 with him off the court. Hence his negative NET rating.

Do you think that Aldridge would have a net +/- of -4.0 on almost any other team?  Of course he would not and that is why it tells you nothing across teams.  He is not hurting the spurs its just that he is starting and the Spurs bench is far and away the most dominant bench in the league.  It makes his #'s look bad and that wouldn't happen on the knicks or some other team.  You absolutely can't use this and many other advanced statistics to rank players throughout the league because different players in different situations would create vastly different #'s.

People really do need to be careful how they use stats. All stats.

[RockinRyA]

That whole draft class is one of the poorest in some time. Giannis might make a few All-Star games. Nerlens might become a 1st team All-Defense and possible DPOY candidate if he can ever get out of Philly and play for a real NBA contender. Oladipo, Schroder and Olynyk are great role players. But the rest of that draft class is pure garbage, IMHO. Danny did well to get one of the top 4-5 players in that draft with the 13th pick and I am a guy that hated the Olynyk pick.

Yeah me too. I was hard on Olynyk and didnt like the pick, wouldve preferred Giannis. However Olynyk seems to have found his niche in this team and is playing consistently. True we couldve gotten the Greek Freak but at least we didnt draft Bennet. We got a quality player at #13 who is playing better than some of those picked ahead of him.

[KeepRondo]

For the record, his net plus-minus (which is much more comparable across teams) is +2.1.

His Box plus-minus is +1.4. Also more comparable across teams.

Neither of these are perfect of course but they're much better than simple plus-minus, which has exactly the flaw you describe.

KO's numbers on the two stats above are +4.5 and +1.7, as comparison.

Net +/- tells you nothing across teams.  If you have a Net +/- of +2.1 on the Spurs it would be cause for alarm.  If you have a Net +/- of +2.1 on the Knicks having played significant minutes then that is a different story.

That's not true.

Net is the difference between the player's plus-minus with a player on the court, and with that player off the court.

For example LaMarcus Aldridge's net plus-minus this year is -4.0. Of course, the Spurs have a plus-minus of +11.6 with him on the court, because they lead the league in plus-minus.

But, it's +15.6 with him off the court. Hence his negative NET rating.

Do you think that Aldridge would have a net +/- of -4.0 on almost any other team?  Of course he would not and that is why it tells you nothing across teams.  He is not hurting the spurs its just that he is starting and the Spurs bench is far and away the most dominant bench in the league.  It makes his #'s look bad and that wouldn't happen on the knicks or some other team.  You absolutely can't use this and many other advanced statistics to rank players throughout the league because different players in different situations would create vastly different #'s.

People really do need to be careful how they use stats. All stats.

As someone who majored in math, it gives me a headache every time I see people misusing stats or being so proud when they use stats that make no sense.

[PhoSita]

That whole draft class is one of the poorest in some time. Giannis might make a few All-Star games. Nerlens might become a 1st team All-Defense and possible DPOY candidate if he can ever get out of Philly and play for a real NBA contender. Oladipo, Schroder and Olynyk are great role players. But the rest of that draft class is pure garbage, IMHO. Danny did well to get one of the top 4-5 players in that draft with the 13th pick and I am a guy that hated the Olynyk pick.

Yeah me too. I was hard on Olynyk and didnt like the pick, wouldve preferred Giannis. However Olynyk seems to have found his niche in this team and is playing consistently. True we couldve gotten the Greek Freak but at least we didnt draft Bennet. We got a quality player at #13 who is playing better than some of those picked ahead of him.

Victor Oladipo
Kentavious Caldwell Pope
Otto Porter
Cody Zeller
Alex Len
CJ McCollum
Michael Carter-Williams
Steven Adams
Shane Larkin
Tony Snell
Gorgui Dieng
Mason Plumlee
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Andre Roberson
Rudy Gobert
Allen Crabbe
Jeff Withey
Mike Muscala
Joffrey Lauvergne


Actually, a remarkably high number of players from the 2013 draft have already shown themselves to be useful NBA players, if not more.

Oladipo, McCollum, Giannis, Gobert look like the highlights, and while none of them is likely to be a perennial All-Star, they're all quite good.

[Rondo9]

Olynyk improved a lot this year.

I'm pretty happy with the draft pick. If Giannis is the only guy to pick before Okynyk, I would say Ainge did well with that pick.

Ainge did well with Smart also. Besides Lavine, who many teams passed, who would you possibly take over him?

The misses are Young and Roz so far.

Another flashy guy who doesn't make his teammates better, but puts up numbers.

Its pretty silly to think Lavine can't end up being a better player than Smart. I would say it's 50/50 between these guys. Obviously Smart is the guy you want now because he's got the mental game figured out. But not every young player is going to have the mental game figured out in their first years like Smart.

I never said that. Lavine is young enough to put it together, but he's not as good as his numbers/highlights indicate. Watch the Wolves and notice how he takes bad shot after bad shot and dominates the ball offensively, when he should be playing off of Towns or Wiggins. These ball dominant players that aren't good enough to be ball dominant players on upper echelon teams is a major red flag. Some adjust, a lot don't.

Kind of like Smart who also takes a ton of bad shots.

Lavine is young and he plays on a team full of other young players. It's going to be very difficult for him to play within a system or to have positive advanced stats when the other guys around him are also trying to figure out their game also.

Just looking at the skillset, he has a chance to be a much better offensive player than Smart.

Smart obviously has him on the defensive end.

It sounds like you're describing Gerald Green way back when. How'd that workout?

Lol. Just because two players are placed in similar situations does not make them the same.

It's funny. You go from comparing Lavine to AB to now comparing Lavine to Gerald Green. Your bball eyes need a readjustment.

Sorry you both need to.

I see the other guy made the other reference.

Both references equally bad.

Lavine is more like Jamall Crawford.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

Olynyk improved a lot this year.

I'm pretty happy with the draft pick. If Giannis is the only guy to pick before Okynyk, I would say Ainge did well with that pick.

Ainge did well with Smart also. Besides Lavine, who many teams passed, who would you possibly take over him?

The misses are Young and Roz so far.

Another flashy guy who doesn't make his teammates better, but puts up numbers.

Its pretty silly to think Lavine can't end up being a better player than Smart. I would say it's 50/50 between these guys. Obviously Smart is the guy you want now because he's got the mental game figured out. But not every young player is going to have the mental game figured out in their first years like Smart.

I never said that. Lavine is young enough to put it together, but he's not as good as his numbers/highlights indicate. Watch the Wolves and notice how he takes bad shot after bad shot and dominates the ball offensively, when he should be playing off of Towns or Wiggins. These ball dominant players that aren't good enough to be ball dominant players on upper echelon teams is a major red flag. Some adjust, a lot don't.

Kind of like Smart who also takes a ton of bad shots.

Lavine is young and he plays on a team full of other young players. It's going to be very difficult for him to play within a system or to have positive advanced stats when the other guys around him are also trying to figure out their game also.

Just looking at the skillset, he has a chance to be a much better offensive player than Smart.

Smart obviously has him on the defensive end.

It sounds like you're describing Gerald Green way back when. How'd that workout?

Lol. Just because two players are placed in similar situations does not make them the same.

It's funny. You go from comparing Lavine to AB to now comparing Lavine to Gerald Green. Your bball eyes need a readjustment.

Sorry you both need to.

I see the other guy made the other reference.

Both references equally bad.

Lavine is more like Jamall Crawford.

One could say there is a bit of Leandro Barbossa in him....

Or some Tim Hardaway....

Could  be even a hint of a young Grant Hill....

or some shades of....

[LGC88]

I don't get this type of argument when players are judged by their numbers specially scoring numbers.
20pts per game in a losing team means nothing.
show me the stats where this guy makes his team win.

For all we know, maybe you put RJ 35mn per game and run play mostly for him, I'm sure he'll score 20 points, but I'm almost sure we'll lose most of our games.

KO moves the needle because he's a special player (all his stats backup this argument). I like Giannis but I'm glad we have KO in Boston, this type of kid will be essential in a championship contender Celtics team soon.

[Eddie20]

I don't get this type of argument when players are judged by their numbers specially scoring numbers.
20pts per game in a losing team means nothing.
show me the stats where this guy makes his team win.

For all we know, maybe you put RJ 35mn per game and run play mostly for him, I'm sure he'll score 20 points, but I'm almost sure we'll lose most of our games.

KO moves the needle because he's a special player (all his stats backup this argument). I like Giannis but I'm glad we have KO in Boston, this type of kid will be essential in a championship contender Celtics team soon.

Agreed. Plus, Olynyk is a player that can fit seamlessly into any system, especially with the emphasis on 4's that can stretch the floor. On the other hand, GA is much more difficult to plug in. He can't play the 4, despite his length, because he's not physical enough and then his shooting is an issue at the 3. So the best case scenario for him is to be a ball handling 3 where he's facilitator and is flanked by good shooters. However, the problem is that he's not good enough to be the center point of a team.

[Celtics18]

I don't get this type of argument when players are judged by their numbers specially scoring numbers.
20pts per game in a losing team means nothing.
show me the stats where this guy makes his team win.

For all we know, maybe you put RJ 35mn per game and run play mostly for him, I'm sure he'll score 20 points, but I'm almost sure we'll lose most of our games.

KO moves the needle because he's a special player (all his stats backup this argument). I like Giannis but I'm glad we have KO in Boston, this type of kid will be essential in a championship contender Celtics team soon.

Agreed. Plus, Olynyk is a player that can fit seamlessly into any system, especially with the emphasis on 4's that can stretch the floor. On the other hand, GA is much more difficult to plug in. He can't play the 4, despite his length, because he's not physical enough and then his shooting is an issue at the 3. So the best case scenario for him is to be a ball handling 3 where he's facilitator and is flanked by good shooters. However, the problem is that he's not good enough to be the center point of a team.

I think he is good enough to be the centerpiece of a good team.  And he's still improving.

I love Olynyk, but I have to be honest, he doesn't seem to have the superstar potential of the Greek Freak.