I like KO, but Giannis is beginning to look like a STUD.

[Snakehead]

Gobert just falls into the crap shoot of that kind of big man to me.  Just like Fab Melo did.  Just like Whiteside did, and he even looked like nothing for seasons before he became what he is now.  Perhaps the scouting could have been better but it's just really hard to predict.  Tall players have a hard time getting it together.  Some do, some don't.  Coordination, physicality, mobility, athleticism are all tough to deal with for many of those players and it's tough predict how they will develop.  And of course some can just entirely physically fall apart (Oden, Embiid from the jump, a guy like Bynum later on).

Not the neat answer some want but I think it's clearly the reality.  I'm sure some are better at it than others but not sure I have seen a pattern of that (if it's there, so be it).

I think you'd have to look at "pure centers taken outside of the lottery" or something like that as the sample.

I would be interested to see that, in addition to some kind of general look at big men, even in the lottery.  Especially like outside the top 5 picks.  I think it'd be all over the place like I said but I don't have the data.

[loco_91]

why does everyone forget he grew like 6 inches after being drafted? He was drafted as a guard and started his career as a guard.

Because it's not true.   He might have grown two or three inches, but he wasn't 6'5" when he was drafted.  No way.

Nonetheless this is a fair point. Giannis developed unexpectedly well in multiple ways, and at least one of them--height-- was totally unpredictable. Those 2-3 inches (not sure how much exactly) make a huge difference. No coincidence that Paul George grew a few inches and suddenly he was a superstar.