Author Topic: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.  (Read 104863 times)

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Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #300 on: April 06, 2016, 09:54:11 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Lowe is a fantastic journalist. He controlled the interview in the exact way he needed to extract as much from Hinkie as possible. That split second of silence when he asked "is it a problem that you don't have that player (a superstar prospect) yet?" was absolutely priceless.

I got the feeling that Hinkie is quite resentful of the Celtics, particularly regarding the flak he's getting for routing Isaiah to us instead of including him in the package he got from Phoenix. He came off at quite bitter: he doesn't think it's fair that he's being painted as a failure already and he's got a great deal of conviction that he'll still be vindicated in the end.

Reading between the lines, I think Embiid's medical issues are looking fairly grim ("he's either going to be a superstar or never play in the NBA"), and the Sixers really have no clue with Saric ("we don't really have one person in charge of talking to him...").
I think the 76ers are set up to have the last laugh there.

Signs are looking very positive with Embiid.  I agree, if the guy plays he'll end up a superstar.  The only way he doesn't end up a superstar is if he never plays... but signs point to him playing.

So many assets.  A competent GM will be able to easily turn that into a competitive team.  At this point, the casual fans that don't get it aren't going to get it.  They'll just have to wait and be dumfounded when suddenly Hinkie's seeds turn into an Orchard.

Dude, c'mon. Know when to concede defeat. Hinkie just did. You should follow suit.
I've had soooo many conversations about Philly on this forum and I've always tried to be pretty clear in my stance on them.   My opinion gets twisted a lot.  I've reiterated the same points dozens of times.  You've seen them.   But I'll go ahead and reiterate them again.

- Never cared about Hinkie.  As far as I know, he was hired with the goal of tanking.  Philly was in "superstar or bust" mode before Hinkie came on... hence going after risky guys like Andrew Bynum.   

- I'm perfectly happy to see Philly fall on their face.  I've never been a 76er fan.

- I think Hinkie did a fine job collecting assets, but I never felt there was anything SPECIAL about what he was doing.  What he did didn't take genius.  I've never seen Hinkie as an equal to Danny Ainge.   What was SPECIAL was that the team was allowing and encouraging a shameless tank job.  We've never seen a team so shamelessly go into "superstar or bust" mode.  We've never seen a team so blatantly tank for such a prolonged period of time.  We've never seen a team basically say, "this system is rigged and encourages losing... so as long as this system encourages losing, let's lose for as long as we can".   They decided to run that team like you'd run a team in franchise mode on a video game... But in a video game, you have the luxury of simming full seasons in minutes without the media backlash.   That was fascinating to me.  I've never really cared about Hinkie.  I always saw Hinkie as a puppet.  He was hired to do collect assets and "let it ride", and he did a fine job at it.

I personally followed the same strategy in the Lucky17 Points League/CBPL.   I joined that keeper league 7 years into their existence.  The team I took over had finished in the lottery all 7 years and was currently bottom 5 in a 20 league team.   I took over in Jan 2014.  This was right around the time that I was desperate for Boston to bottom out and go for a star prospect in the 2014 draft.   So, I followed the same exact method I take every time I start a video game franchise mode.   I traded away every single player for prospects and draft picks.  I intentionally bottomed out 2 years in a row.   This Summer, I converted all of those assets into real tangible players.  My team subsequently steamrolled the entire league.  I coasted to a championship, put up a league record 32,363 points.  My team had an average age of 24 and was set up to dominate for the next 10-15 years.  The level of domination was so thorough that half the league threatened to quit unless I was removed.  I'm told that the juggernaut I put together will be dismantled with the players distributed to the bottom-tier teams in need of bail outs. 

Point is, I could follow that shameless "wait until next year" strategy in a fantasy league.  I didn't have fans and media to answer to.  You can do that in a video game.  But not until the recent Philadelphia 76ers have we seen a team follow that strategy in the real world.  Take guys like Noel and let him sit for a year.   Trade guys like Michael Carter Williams for draft picks that might end up in the top 4.    Draft Elfrid Payton and trade him away for Dario Saric and a future 1st with the expectation of Saric playing overseas.   Literally spend $0 on competent free agent veterans in favor of trying out D-League players that help the team continue to lose.  Allow a roster to be so lopsided and mismatched with no intention of fixing it in the short-term.   We haven't seen something so blatant before.

And it was fascinating.  It's still fascinating.  As much as ignorant fans want to believe otherwise, this story is far from over.  It's just entering the next phase.  This signals that they are done collecting assets - now they will try to turn it into a team.  Respected basketball minds like Zach Lowe and Charles Barkley back up this stance.   Philly is loaded with assets, they have some very interesting prospects and tons of options heading forward.   We will not know how this plays out for a few years.  Guys like Barkley have commented that the team is set up very well heading forward and he's right.   They have valuable pieces that can be traded for roster balance.

They are set up beautifully.   This offseason could be massive for them.   I've repeatedly said that this would be a dream job for a smart GM.  It's a DREAM job.  You can take over a team loaded with assets and young prospects, spend some cash on young guys on the promise of a "new team identity", trade the two centers you don't want for equally outstanding prospects at different positions...   It has basically everything a GM could want from a team.  Youth, draft picks, cap space, potentially franchise prospects. 

I had no idea of Hinkie would be the guy for that job, though.  Would he be the right guy to take the next step?  He did a fine job amassing the assets, but would he make the right moves heading forward?  Would he sell low on Okafor?  Would he make bad signings?   No freakin idea.  I've never at any point claimed to know if Hinkie was a competent GM in that regard. 

Sounds like Philly is making the right move.  The Colangelo's are highly regarded.  As they head into this potentially epic offseason for them, it's good to give the allure of a "fresh start" and a "winning mentality".   Hinkie probably hurt that perception.   Now they can engage in good-faith conversations with agents on the premise of, "Hey I know Hinkie snubbed you and the team was a mess, but now we have a totally new agenda.  Things are different!".   Hinkie leaving is probably for the best. 

I've said a couple times before that I expect at least 4 of the top 6 players next season aren't playing for them right now.   It remains a fascinating situation.  Especially depending on how lucky they get in the lotto. 

Truth be told, there was a time when I would have gladly swapped Boston's roster for Philly's.   I stand by the belief that Philly's assets are underrated. A lot of people still believe in Saric. I think Noel is a stud.  I believe Embiid still has a huge future if the bonegraft works out as well as it did for Durant and Lopez.  I think they'll have tons of trade options.  There is a real chance they end up with picks #1 and #4 in this draft.   They have several additional 1st round picks to utilize.   There was a time when I would have gladly taken that over "Marcus Smart + a pick that may or may not end up in the lotto".    To be fair, I have to point out that my opinion has changed since then.  There's a lot of factors as to why.   #1 - I believe Boston has a legitimate shot at Kevin Durant and Al Horford this summer primarily because of how well they have played and their strong foundation/management/ownership/coaching.   #2 - The Brooklyn pick has exceeded all expectations.  Their lack of depth was exposed by injuries and the team struggled mightily all season.  While the Philly pick is a lock for top 4, the lotto could bless us.   #3 - Players like Jae Crowder and Isaiah Thomas have taken leaps.  The trade value of guys like Avery Bradley have taken positive hits as well.  These can't be ignored.   Point is, there was a time when Philly's assets were legitimately more valuable than ours.   The basketball gods have been kind to us, though.  I'd take Boston's roster over it now.    Granted, 6 months from now if Boston strikes out in free agency, Embiid proves to be the prospect we all thought and Philly lands Ben Simmons in the draft, I'm not going to lie about my updated opinions on the roster value just because of my Celtic fandom.   THese things fluctuate.   Right now, Boston looks set up better than any team in the league.   I still think a smart GM will be able to turn Philly into a beast as well, though.    It's going to be very very interesting to watch what happens here.   

I stand by my stance that a competent GM will be able to easily turn Philly into a competitive team.  I had no idea if Hinkie was that guy.   I'm sure if Colangelo succeeds, people will act shocked and say he did a brilliant job "turning it around", but I genuinely think it's a dream scenario for any GM.   Taking over Philly is basically "Easy Mode".  It's only up from here.

I can't believe I read this whole thing, plus the one that followed. But it was worth it, TP.
"Young man, you have the question backwards." - Bill Russell

"My guess is that an aggregator of expert opinions would be close in terms of results to that of Danny." - Roy H.

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #301 on: April 06, 2016, 10:24:19 PM »

Offline colincb

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Lowe is a fantastic journalist. He controlled the interview in the exact way he needed to extract as much from Hinkie as possible. That split second of silence when he asked "is it a problem that you don't have that player (a superstar prospect) yet?" was absolutely priceless.

I got the feeling that Hinkie is quite resentful of the Celtics, particularly regarding the flak he's getting for routing Isaiah to us instead of including him in the package he got from Phoenix. He came off at quite bitter: he doesn't think it's fair that he's being painted as a failure already and he's got a great deal of conviction that he'll still be vindicated in the end.

Reading between the lines, I think Embiid's medical issues are looking fairly grim ("he's either going to be a superstar or never play in the NBA"), and the Sixers really have no clue with Saric ("we don't really have one person in charge of talking to him...").
I think the 76ers are set up to have the last laugh there.

Signs are looking very positive with Embiid.  I agree, if the guy plays he'll end up a superstar.  The only way he doesn't end up a superstar is if he never plays... but signs point to him playing.

So many assets.  A competent GM will be able to easily turn that into a competitive team.  At this point, the casual fans that don't get it aren't going to get it.  They'll just have to wait and be dumfounded when suddenly Hinkie's seeds turn into an Orchard.
The next time you're right about the Sixers will be the first time. It's comical how little you understand about management.

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #302 on: April 06, 2016, 10:40:35 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Eddie, you mention "white noise".

In my opinion, the entire Hinkie "debate" is white noise/straw man.  It totally misses the point.  I've consistently said that Hinkie is irrelevant to me in how I look at the 76ers.  But yes, so far the only tangible benefit of hiring Colangelo has been on the PR side.  They kept the big man problem.  They made no significant signings.  THey kept the draft picks.   As expected, they tanked and will deal with it in the Summer.  That was the expected plan all along.  The only tangible benefit, thus far, was that it got people off Philly's back and set the perception that the team was shifting gears into the team building phase.   That said, I suspect it's better for Philly to have a proven basketball mind making those decisions than a guy who was explicitly hired to collect assets and tank.

But really, I'm more interested in getting to the root of this.  Move past the Hinkie fascination.  I've been trying to have a reasonable conversation about the 76ers for two years and what has become abundantly clear is that folks like you fundamentally do not understand the fascination/intrigue with the 76ers.  I've tried any number of ways of explaining it to fans, but it's just not clicking.   This doesn't surprise me.  I've spent over a decade on CelticsBlog.  With a few exceptions, the vast majority of this forum simply does not understand player/asset valuation.  I'm not even referring to me consistently making a fool out of my fellow CelticBloggers in fantasy leagues that I dominate on an embarrassing level.    Beyond fantasy basketball I'm talking about basic asset valuation.   Visit any "trade idea" thread and you'll see some absurd comment about going after Karl Anthony Towns or someone suggesting they wouldn't trade the Brooklyn pick for anything less than Anthony Davis.   I'm not shaming anyone over it.  Some of us follow the behind the scenes GM stuff on an obsessive level.  It's not for casual fans. 

Fact is, casual fans have tunnel vision and apparently can't see past the fact that Philly has 10 wins.  They see the team as a failure.  They simply can't comprehend what I mean when I say that they were in that position intentionally.  They apparently don't understand what I mean when I say the team was in asset acquisition phase and are set up for long term success.  How can a team with 10 wins have a bright future?   They don't get it.  I try and try to explain it, but it doesn't click.  There's folks here who genuinely believe "Hinkie's Plan failed" without understanding that Philly's plan is still in the midst of happening.   Removing Hinkie doesn't erase everything they've done so far.   Some fans here are so ignorant and out of touch with the reality of Philly's situation that I actually saw one ask if Colangelo's hiring signaled that the league was stepping in and would punish the 76ers by taking away their draft picks.    Some fans just don't get it.   They don't get why Philly is a dream job for a GM.

At this point, I've accepted that most people here just aren't going to get it.  If Philly improves, they'll assume it was the result of some witchcraft.  And that's totally fine.  I'm certainly not suggesting I'm better than casual fans.  I just have more free time than most.  But Eddie, the puzzling thing to me is that you aren't a casual fan.  When you're not goading me into arguments, you seem to have a better than average understanding of this league.   I want to try one last time to see if I can get through to you on the Philly thing.   I'm going to try a Hail Mary here.  Maybe if I break it down into a series of smaller questions, you might get what I find intriguing.

Here we go.

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Philly ends up with Ingram or Simmons this Summer?  (Tip:  With 250 lotto combos, they'll have about a 46.5% chance, but that's not including the addition combos they have via pick swap option with the Kings)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be in Philly ends up with a 4-6 pick via the Lakers this Summer?  (Tip:  44.2% chance the pick falls outside the Top 3.  Most likely scenario has the pick ending up 4th with 31.9% odds)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Embiid plays... and actually ends up similar skill set to Karl Towns?  (Tip:  Consensus is that if he plays, he'll end up a Superstar.  So you just need to determine if he'll actually play.   Here's a recent article:  http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/241440/joel-embiid-cleared-for-everything-except-full-contact-full-court-scrimmaging )

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Saric comes over and ends up a Marcus Smart-level prospect?  (Tip:  He was seen as being in the same "tier" heading into the draft)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Okafor nets the team a significant piece?   (Tip:  Boston reportedly offered a package built around the Brooklyn 1st for him at the deadline)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Nerlens Noel develops into an all-defense level center?  (averaged 13.5 points, 8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 2 steals and 1.5 blocks with 56% shooting in 24 games as starting center)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Philly is able to get more capable players with their #23 and #27 picks this year than the undrafted d-leaguers currently holding active slots?

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Colangelo is able to sign some quality free agents using the 80 million in cap space the team has avoided using these past two seasons?  (Note:  These do not need to be superstars.   Do you expect Amir Johnson-level players to snub Philly ?)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Colangelo is able to use some of these young players/assets to trade for an impact player? (Tip:  You have fans here who believe we could trade a #4-6 pick for Jimmy Butler.  What does that mean if Philly has two top 5 picks?)

Not all of these things will happen.  Some of them might.  Until we see what happens, it's way too early to say anything Philly did has been a failure thus-far.   They have the assets.  A competent GM will be able to turn those assets into a competitive team fairly quickly.  At this point it just depends on how much faith you have in the guys Philly is bringing in to handle their "team building" phase.   I imagine Hinkie haters would have preferred the guy stuck around.  He has no proven track record of building a winner.  Colangelo does.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2016, 10:54:27 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #303 on: April 06, 2016, 10:51:06 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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With a few exceptions, the vast majority of this forum simply does not understand player/asset valuation. 

Kettle meet pot.

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #304 on: April 06, 2016, 10:52:19 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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"Sorry, you can't repeat a karma action without waiting 1 hours."

I can't believe I just saw that on my screen.
"Young man, you have the question backwards." - Bill Russell

"My guess is that an aggregator of expert opinions would be close in terms of results to that of Danny." - Roy H.

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #305 on: April 06, 2016, 10:56:32 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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With a few exceptions, the vast majority of this forum simply does not understand player/asset valuation. 

Kettle meet pot.
Vast majority of this forum was unwilling to trade the Brooklyn pick (projected #4) for Jabari Parker

85% of this forum said they wouldn't trade Marcus Smart for the Suns pick (projected #3). 

Several people on this forum believe we could trade the Brooklyn pick for an all-star if it falls outside the top 2.

These things don't make sense. 

It's a fact that the majority of this forum doesn't have a clue what they are talking about.   Probably me included.

For some fans, it's hard for them to see beyond the 10 wins into some mystery box of unknowns.  But it should be clear that what Philly has done over the past few years is shamelessly push out all tangible talent for future assets.   They still have those assets.  Those assets still have value.   And by doing so, they now position themselves pretty darn well heading into the Summer. 
« Last Edit: April 06, 2016, 11:01:46 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #306 on: April 06, 2016, 10:59:30 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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Eddie, you mention "white noise".

In my opinion, the entire Hinkie "debate" is white noise/straw man.  It totally misses the point.  I've consistently said that Hinkie is irrelevant to me in how I look at the 76ers.  But yes, so far the only tangible benefit of hiring Colangelo has been on the PR side.  They kept the big man problem.  They made no significant signings.  THey kept the draft picks.   As expected, they tanked and will deal with it in the Summer.  That was the expected plan all along.  The only tangible benefit, thus far, was that it got people off Philly's back and set the perception that the team was shifting gears into the team building phase.   That said, I suspect it's better for Philly to have a proven basketball mind making those decisions than a guy who was explicitly hired to collect assets and tank.

But really, I'm more interested in getting to the root of this.  Move past the Hinkie fascination.  I've been trying to have a reasonable conversation about the 76ers for two years and what has become abundantly clear is that folks like you fundamentally do not understand the fascination/intrigue with the 76ers.  I've tried any number of ways of explaining it to fans, but it's just not clicking.   This doesn't surprise me.  I've spent over a decade on CelticsBlog.  With a few exceptions, the vast majority of this forum simply does not understand player/asset valuation.  I'm not even referring to me consistently making a fool out of my fellow CelticBloggers in fantasy leagues that I dominate on an embarrassing level.    Beyond fantasy basketball I'm talking about basic asset valuation.   Visit any "trade idea" thread and you'll see some absurd comment about going after Karl Anthony Towns or someone suggesting they wouldn't trade the Brooklyn pick for anything less than Anthony Davis.   I'm not shaming anyone over it.  Some of us follow the behind the scenes GM stuff on an obsessive level.  It's not for casual fans. 

Fact is, casual fans have tunnel vision and apparently can't see past the fact that Philly has 10 wins.  They see the team as a failure.  They simply can't comprehend what I mean when I say that they were in that position intentionally.  They apparently don't understand what I mean when I say the team was in asset acquisition phase and are set up for long term success.  How can a team with 10 wins have a bright future?   They don't get it.  I try and try to explain it, but it doesn't click.  There's folks here who genuinely believe "Hinkie's Plan failed" without understanding that Philly's plan is still in the midst of happening.   Removing Hinkie doesn't erase everything they've done so far.   Some fans here are so ignorant and out of touch with the reality of Philly's situation that I actually saw one ask if Colangelo's hiring signaled that the league was stepping in and would punish the 76ers by taking away their draft picks.    Some fans just don't get it.   They don't get why Philly is a dream job for a GM.

At this point, I've accepted that most people here just aren't going to get it.  If Philly improves, they'll assume it was the result of some witchcraft.  And that's totally fine.  I'm certainly not suggesting I'm better than casual fans.  I just have more free time than most.  But Eddie, the puzzling thing to me is that you aren't a casual fan.  When you're not goading me into arguments, you seem to have a better than average understanding of this league.   I want to try one last time to see if I can get through to you on the Philly thing.   I'm going to try a Hail Mary here.  Maybe if I break it down into a series of smaller questions, you might get what I find intriguing.

Here we go.

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Philly ends up with Ingram or Simmons this Summer?  (Tip:  With 250 lotto combos, they'll have about a 46.5% chance, but that's not including the addition combos they have via pick swap option with the Kings)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be in Philly ends up with a 4-6 pick via the Lakers this Summer?  (Tip:  44.2% chance the pick falls outside the Top 3.  Most likely scenario has the pick ending up 4th with 31.9% odds)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Embiid plays... and actually ends up similar skill set to Karl Towns?  (Tip:  Consensus is that if he plays, he'll end up a Superstar.  So you just need to determine if he'll actually play.   Here's a recent article:  http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/241440/joel-embiid-cleared-for-everything-except-full-contact-full-court-scrimmaging )

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Saric comes over and ends up a Marcus Smart-level prospect?  (Tip:  He was seen as being in the same "tier" heading into the draft)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Okafor nets the team a significant piece?   (Tip:  Boston reportedly offered a package built around the Brooklyn 1st for him at the deadline)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Nerlens Noel develops into an all-defense level center?  (averaged 13.5 points, 8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 2 steals and 1.5 blocks with 56% shooting in 24 games as starting center)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Philly is able to get more capable players with their #23 and #27 picks this year than the undrafted d-leaguers currently holding active slots?

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Colangelo is able to sign some quality free agents using the 80 million in cap space the team has avoided using these past two seasons?  (Note:  These do not need to be superstars.   Do you expect Amir Johnson-level players to snub Philly ?)

- On a scale of 1-10, how shocked will you be if Colangelo is able to use some of these young players/assets to trade for an impact player? (Tip:  You have fans here who believe we could trade a #4-6 pick for Jimmy Butler.  What does that mean if Philly has two top 5 picks?)

Not all of these things will happen.  Some of them might.  Until we see what happens, it's way too early to say anything Philly did has been a failure thus-far.   They have the assets.  A competent GM will be able to turn those assets into a competitive team fairly quickly.  At this point it just depends on how much faith you have in the guys Philly is bringing in to handle their "team building" phase.   I imagine Hinkie haters would have preferred the guy stuck around.  He has no proven track record of building a winner.  Colangelo does.

All I'm going to say is that Colangelo's son did an awful job in Toronto. Second, the sixers have no leverage. Hinkie made great trades. He had cajones. They have to two of three centers, and nobody is going to offer them much for those players because what is Philly going to do? Play all three? Hahahaha.

All they have is praying Simmons or Ingram become a superstar. That is if they get a top two pick

Sometimes you can go off the deep end man.

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #307 on: April 06, 2016, 11:00:58 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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With a few exceptions, the vast majority of this forum simply does not understand player/asset valuation. 

Kettle meet pot.
Vast majority of this forum was unwilling to trade the Brooklyn pick (projected #4) for Jabari Parker

85% of this forum said they wouldn't trade Marcus Smart for the Suns pick (projected #3). 

Several people on this forum believe we could trade the Brooklyn pick for an all-star if it falls outside the top 2.

These things don't make sense. 

It's a fact that the majority of this forum doesn't have a clue what they are talking about.   Probably me included.

For some fans, it's hard for them to see beyond the 10 wins into some mystery box of unknowns.  But it should be clear that what Philly has done over the past few years is shamelessly push out all tangible talent for future assets.   They still have those assets.  Those assets still have value.   And by doing so, they now position themselves pretty darn well heading into the Summer.

Now you sound like Felger. What an over exaggeration. You know I'm not saying this stuff. Also, I felt like most of the board was in favor of trading for Parker, but realized he isn't available. Jeez dude, make a good point at least.

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #308 on: April 06, 2016, 11:03:42 PM »

Offline Vox_Populi

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With a few exceptions, the vast majority of this forum simply does not understand player/asset valuation. 

Kettle meet pot.
Vast majority of this forum was unwilling to trade the Brooklyn pick (projected #4) for Jabari Parker

85% of this forum said they wouldn't trade Marcus Smart for the Suns pick (projected #3). 

Several people on this forum believe we could trade the Brooklyn pick for an all-star if it falls outside the top 2.

These things don't make sense. 

It's a fact that the majority of this forum doesn't have a clue what they are talking about.   Probably me included.

For some fans, it's hard for them to see beyond the 10 wins into some mystery box of unknowns.  But it should be clear that what Philly has done over the past few years is shamelessly push out all tangible talent for future assets.   They still have those assets.  Those assets still have value.   And by doing so, they now position themselves pretty darn well heading into the Summer. 

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #309 on: April 06, 2016, 11:03:46 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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At the end of the day Lbrrd, you won't debate with me because I know more than you old man. So keep going back and forth on that rocking chair and let this new era of Celtics fans take over this board and share unbias, honest insight. 

Enjoy praying Embiid foot works out. And one thing forget about the whole thing is the dude hasn't been playing basketball for like three years. You do know Greg Oden no longer gets injured, he just has been away from the game too long and he can't get back to where he was. The whole thing is just funny.

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #310 on: April 06, 2016, 11:03:49 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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With a few exceptions, the vast majority of this forum simply does not understand player/asset valuation. 

Kettle meet pot.
Vast majority of this forum was unwilling to trade the Brooklyn pick (projected #4) for Jabari Parker

85% of this forum said they wouldn't trade Marcus Smart for the Suns pick (projected #3). 

Several people on this forum believe we could trade the Brooklyn pick for an all-star if it falls outside the top 2.

These things don't make sense. 

It's a fact that the majority of this forum doesn't have a clue what they are talking about.   Probably me included.

For some fans, it's hard for them to see beyond the 10 wins into some mystery box of unknowns.  But it should be clear that what Philly has done over the past few years is shamelessly push out all tangible talent for future assets.   They still have those assets.  Those assets still have value.   And by doing so, they now position themselves pretty darn well heading into the Summer.

Now you sound like Felger. What an over exaggeration. You know I'm not saying this stuff. Also, I felt like most of the board was in favor of trading for Parker, but realized he isn't available. Jeez dude, make a good point at least.
You might be in the minority.  And I'm not exaggerating.  The Suns pick can't be both less valuable than Marcus Smart and more valuable than Jimmy Butler, but to some fans it is.  Trying to discuss prospects/assets with some fans here is an exercise in creating infinite paradoxes.  You can't expect a forum with a widespread misunderstanding of assets to comprehend why Philly's in a good position heading forward.   If those assets were decorated in shamrocks, it'd be a different story. 

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #311 on: April 06, 2016, 11:04:54 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Lowe is a fantastic journalist. He controlled the interview in the exact way he needed to extract as much from Hinkie as possible. That split second of silence when he asked "is it a problem that you don't have that player (a superstar prospect) yet?" was absolutely priceless.

I got the feeling that Hinkie is quite resentful of the Celtics, particularly regarding the flak he's getting for routing Isaiah to us instead of including him in the package he got from Phoenix. He came off at quite bitter: he doesn't think it's fair that he's being painted as a failure already and he's got a great deal of conviction that he'll still be vindicated in the end.

Reading between the lines, I think Embiid's medical issues are looking fairly grim ("he's either going to be a superstar or never play in the NBA"), and the Sixers really have no clue with Saric ("we don't really have one person in charge of talking to him...").
I think the 76ers are set up to have the last laugh there.

Signs are looking very positive with Embiid.  I agree, if the guy plays he'll end up a superstar.  The only way he doesn't end up a superstar is if he never plays... but signs point to him playing.

So many assets.  A competent GM will be able to easily turn that into a competitive team.  At this point, the casual fans that don't get it aren't going to get it.  They'll just have to wait and be dumfounded when suddenly Hinkie's seeds turn into an Orchard.

Dude, c'mon. Know when to concede defeat. Hinkie just did. You should follow suit.
I've had soooo many conversations about Philly on this forum and I've always tried to be pretty clear in my stance on them.   My opinion gets twisted a lot.  I've reiterated the same points dozens of times.  You've seen them.   But I'll go ahead and reiterate them again.

- Never cared about Hinkie.  As far as I know, he was hired with the goal of tanking.  Philly was in "superstar or bust" mode before Hinkie came on... hence going after risky guys like Andrew Bynum.   

- I'm perfectly happy to see Philly fall on their face.  I've never been a 76er fan.

- I think Hinkie did a fine job collecting assets, but I never felt there was anything SPECIAL about what he was doing.  What he did didn't take genius.  I've never seen Hinkie as an equal to Danny Ainge.   What was SPECIAL was that the team was allowing and encouraging a shameless tank job.  We've never seen a team so shamelessly go into "superstar or bust" mode.  We've never seen a team so blatantly tank for such a prolonged period of time.  We've never seen a team basically say, "this system is rigged and encourages losing... so as long as this system encourages losing, let's lose for as long as we can".   They decided to run that team like you'd run a team in franchise mode on a video game... But in a video game, you have the luxury of simming full seasons in minutes without the media backlash.   That was fascinating to me.  I've never really cared about Hinkie.  I always saw Hinkie as a puppet.  He was hired to do collect assets and "let it ride", and he did a fine job at it.

I personally followed the same strategy in the Lucky17 Points League/CBPL.   I joined that keeper league 7 years into their existence.  The team I took over had finished in the lottery all 7 years and was currently bottom 5 in a 20 league team.   I took over in Jan 2014.  This was right around the time that I was desperate for Boston to bottom out and go for a star prospect in the 2014 draft.   So, I followed the same exact method I take every time I start a video game franchise mode.   I traded away every single player for prospects and draft picks.  I intentionally bottomed out 2 years in a row.   This Summer, I converted all of those assets into real tangible players.  My team subsequently steamrolled the entire league.  I coasted to a championship, put up a league record 32,363 points.  My team had an average age of 24 and was set up to dominate for the next 10-15 years.  The level of domination was so thorough that half the league threatened to quit unless I was removed.  I'm told that the juggernaut I put together will be dismantled with the players distributed to the bottom-tier teams in need of bail outs. 

Point is, I could follow that shameless "wait until next year" strategy in a fantasy league.  I didn't have fans and media to answer to.  You can do that in a video game.  But not until the recent Philadelphia 76ers have we seen a team follow that strategy in the real world.  Take guys like Noel and let him sit for a year.   Trade guys like Michael Carter Williams for draft picks that might end up in the top 4.    Draft Elfrid Payton and trade him away for Dario Saric and a future 1st with the expectation of Saric playing overseas.   Literally spend $0 on competent free agent veterans in favor of trying out D-League players that help the team continue to lose.  Allow a roster to be so lopsided and mismatched with no intention of fixing it in the short-term.   We haven't seen something so blatant before.

And it was fascinating.  It's still fascinating.  As much as ignorant fans want to believe otherwise, this story is far from over.  It's just entering the next phase.  This signals that they are done collecting assets - now they will try to turn it into a team.  Respected basketball minds like Zach Lowe and Charles Barkley back up this stance.   Philly is loaded with assets, they have some very interesting prospects and tons of options heading forward.   We will not know how this plays out for a few years.  Guys like Barkley have commented that the team is set up very well heading forward and he's right.   They have valuable pieces that can be traded for roster balance.

They are set up beautifully.   This offseason could be massive for them.   I've repeatedly said that this would be a dream job for a smart GM.  It's a DREAM job.  You can take over a team loaded with assets and young prospects, spend some cash on young guys on the promise of a "new team identity", trade the two centers you don't want for equally outstanding prospects at different positions...   It has basically everything a GM could want from a team.  Youth, draft picks, cap space, potentially franchise prospects. 

I had no idea of Hinkie would be the guy for that job, though.  Would he be the right guy to take the next step?  He did a fine job amassing the assets, but would he make the right moves heading forward?  Would he sell low on Okafor?  Would he make bad signings?   No freakin idea.  I've never at any point claimed to know if Hinkie was a competent GM in that regard. 

Sounds like Philly is making the right move.  The Colangelo's are highly regarded.  As they head into this potentially epic offseason for them, it's good to give the allure of a "fresh start" and a "winning mentality".   Hinkie probably hurt that perception.   Now they can engage in good-faith conversations with agents on the premise of, "Hey I know Hinkie snubbed you and the team was a mess, but now we have a totally new agenda.  Things are different!".   Hinkie leaving is probably for the best. 

I've said a couple times before that I expect at least 4 of the top 6 players next season aren't playing for them right now.   It remains a fascinating situation.  Especially depending on how lucky they get in the lotto. 

Truth be told, there was a time when I would have gladly swapped Boston's roster for Philly's.   I stand by the belief that Philly's assets are underrated. A lot of people still believe in Saric. I think Noel is a stud.  I believe Embiid still has a huge future if the bonegraft works out as well as it did for Durant and Lopez.  I think they'll have tons of trade options.  There is a real chance they end up with picks #1 and #4 in this draft.   They have several additional 1st round picks to utilize.   There was a time when I would have gladly taken that over "Marcus Smart + a pick that may or may not end up in the lotto".    To be fair, I have to point out that my opinion has changed since then.  There's a lot of factors as to why.   #1 - I believe Boston has a legitimate shot at Kevin Durant and Al Horford this summer primarily because of how well they have played and their strong foundation/management/ownership/coaching.   #2 - The Brooklyn pick has exceeded all expectations.  Their lack of depth was exposed by injuries and the team struggled mightily all season.  While the Philly pick is a lock for top 4, the lotto could bless us.   #3 - Players like Jae Crowder and Isaiah Thomas have taken leaps.  The trade value of guys like Avery Bradley have taken positive hits as well.  These can't be ignored.   Point is, there was a time when Philly's assets were legitimately more valuable than ours.   The basketball gods have been kind to us, though.  I'd take Boston's roster over it now.    Granted, 6 months from now if Boston strikes out in free agency, Embiid proves to be the prospect we all thought and Philly lands Ben Simmons in the draft, I'm not going to lie about my updated opinions on the roster value just because of my Celtic fandom.   THese things fluctuate.   Right now, Boston looks set up better than any team in the league.   I still think a smart GM will be able to turn Philly into a beast as well, though.    It's going to be very very interesting to watch what happens here.   

I stand by my stance that a competent GM will be able to easily turn Philly into a competitive team.  I had no idea if Hinkie was that guy.   I'm sure if Colangelo succeeds, people will act shocked and say he did a brilliant job "turning it around", but I genuinely think it's a dream scenario for any GM.   Taking over Philly is basically "Easy Mode".  It's only up from here.
I'd say this is an example of LarBrd anti-homerism.

There are a bunch of things that have a decent chance of happening here, and you evaluate them fairly and optimistically (case in point I do not think that "if Embiid plays he will be a superstar")

You expect that a few (but not all) of these things will happen and as a result the 76ers will be good in the future. I think this is fair.

However, last offseason there was a similarly long list of things that could go WRONG for the Nets and yet you chose to assume that they would all go right. You assumed Brook would stay healthy, the east would stay bad, they'd keep everyone, Joe Johnson wouldn't fall off a cliff, their ancient  team would get away with no depth, etc (that may have been it but I feel like there were more so Imma throw etc)

Where is the level-headed optimism when evaluating the Cs prospects?

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #312 on: April 06, 2016, 11:07:12 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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Lowe is a fantastic journalist. He controlled the interview in the exact way he needed to extract as much from Hinkie as possible. That split second of silence when he asked "is it a problem that you don't have that player (a superstar prospect) yet?" was absolutely priceless.

I got the feeling that Hinkie is quite resentful of the Celtics, particularly regarding the flak he's getting for routing Isaiah to us instead of including him in the package he got from Phoenix. He came off at quite bitter: he doesn't think it's fair that he's being painted as a failure already and he's got a great deal of conviction that he'll still be vindicated in the end.

Reading between the lines, I think Embiid's medical issues are looking fairly grim ("he's either going to be a superstar or never play in the NBA"), and the Sixers really have no clue with Saric ("we don't really have one person in charge of talking to him...").
I think the 76ers are set up to have the last laugh there.

Signs are looking very positive with Embiid.  I agree, if the guy plays he'll end up a superstar.  The only way he doesn't end up a superstar is if he never plays... but signs point to him playing.

So many assets.  A competent GM will be able to easily turn that into a competitive team.  At this point, the casual fans that don't get it aren't going to get it.  They'll just have to wait and be dumfounded when suddenly Hinkie's seeds turn into an Orchard.

What are you even saying here? What assets? Let's be honest. What is Noel going to get them? Another draft pick? Lol. Again, they have no leverage with the centers. Especially without the shrewd Hinkie. What is Saric going to get the Sixers? Are you saying they're getting Cousins? Is Cousins agent even going to allow that?

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #313 on: April 06, 2016, 11:07:24 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Also apologies in advance if this devolves into a Brooklyn pick thread, but the thread is already a worn out disaster so why not.

Re: Happy trails to Hinkie's Power.
« Reply #314 on: April 06, 2016, 11:09:00 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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At the end of the day Lbrrd, you won't debate with me
There's nothing to debate.   Philly is a dream job for any GM.  Whether or not the new GM succeeds in converting those assets into a competent team is another story.  Who knows?   They could make a bunch of botched trades and mess it up.   But know that the collection of youth/picks/cap space they have is pretty exceptional.   Only a couple teams are positioned better.   At this point, I like Boston's position more heading into the offseason... and I suspect if some fans here stepped back and had some perspective, they'd realize that is all they really ever wanted out of this conversation.  At the end of the day, they just couldn't bear the idea that Philly might have a brighter future than the Celtics.   Good news is, they might not.  Durant is a legit possibility for us.  I don't know that removing Hinkie will put Philly in the running.  I guess it depends how KD feels about Colangelo.