I think you heavily overestimate how 'raw' Embiid is. He has already shown much more developed skills than the players you compare him to. He has far less years of experience, which makes his skill level even more impressive.
He already can score with an array of post moves with great foot work and with either hand:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKQGEvWlacA
There is also zero evidence regarding a questionable work ethic. Immaturity , yes, but all indications are that he is a hungry, highly competitive person with an alpha mentality.
He has also grown to be 7'2 since the last time we saw him on the floor. http://www.crossingbroad.com/2015/06/joel-embiid-told-brett-brown-hes-72-now.html
Sure, there has never been a player who missed the first two seasons from injury and went on to dominate, BUT, there has never been a player who has still been growing at his size with his skills. His continued growth very likely impacted his ability to heal his navicular bone. Bones are weaker as they continue to grow. This is an unprecedented situation, making comparisons to past players with foot injuries just doesn't work.
His game is also not based heavily on athleticism as it is on size and skill, so even if he loses a little after surgery , it should not impact his ability to dominate.
Showing 1 minute of highlight reels doesn't prove a thing. Go back to the scouting reports. You'll find the word "raw" used often. I don't think Embiid even started playing basketball until 2009 or 2010. That gave him 2 or 3 years of court experience. it's impressive he progressed that much but his game was all about potential coming out of college. He was considered a 2 or 3 year project before he would reach his potential. Considering he hasn't played in the NBA, that journey still awaits.
As for his work ethic, you must have missed the reports. The ones that talked about him blowing up to 300 pounds (rumor, not fact). The ones where he was sent home on a road trip after getting into a disagreement with the assistant strength and conditioning coach (fact, not rumor). The ones where he told Noel that Philly "was my team now". There's smoke and a little fire too.
And you've still failed to address the fact that he won't play a meaningful game in 2 1/2 years with already so little experience, not to mention his age at some point starts working against his continued development. The average NBA player peaks statistically at 24 years old and holds that for a couple of years. Embiid won't play his first meaningful game until almost 23. Are you counting on him being a very late bloomer? How will such a layoff impact his game?
As for comparisons to other foot injuries, yeah, they can be made. Again, read the draft reports. There are red flags all over his durability and the list of guys goes on and on who couldn't overcome those injuries. For this scenario we're throwing that out but as hwangjini_1 pointed out it's very much a fantasy scenario.
To each his own but (1) you're not factoring in all the variables and thus overvaluing Embiid (and undervaluing the value of the picks) and (2) it's a fantasy scenario in the first place because it can't happen.
Well that is the thing, he has only played competitive basketball for about 2-3 years as you say, yet his game is already more advanced than a lot of guys who have been playing for 10-15 years plus. It is amazing, the game comes naturally to him. He already has an effective hook shot with either hand, advanced low post moves, and an overall decent feel for the game which is incredible considering how little time he actually has spent playing the game. Of course most scouts label him raw when they consider how little experience he has, but the same scouts rave about his potential because of how much skill he has shown even though he has so little experience. The reason most NBA players peak at 24 statistically is because they have been playing for so many years, there is nothing left for them to improve talent wise based on their capabilities. There is no physical reason they peak at that age. It makes no sense to say someone that started playing a year or two ago should peak at 24 because he's 24. Thats like saying a golf player has to peak at 24 even though he started playing at 22. Guys don't start losing athleticism in the NBA until they hit 30-32, he would have a good 6-8 years to reach that, and a good 10 years overall as a career if he stays healthy. He's a young 24 next season, both mentally and physically, as he is still growing in height!
As for the reports, I didn't miss them as you insinuate, I read them all, they are speculation and there is zero evidence. All actual photos, videos, etc. show him looking great. He is immature though, that , combined with his competitiveness/arrogance, will be a hinderance to him until he struggles against top competition and improves his maturity. This is one reason having to go through what he has to go through for his foot issues may benefit him in some ways. He will learn patience, learn about the NBA game and how other guys approach it, how to be a pro and stay out of trouble, etc. We are talking about a kid far from home with very little basketball experience and very little life experience in the type of society he has been thrust into, he will have his struggles. Compare that to Sully for example who's dad is a basketball coach and has been playing ball his whole life, yet still struggles on and off the floor, the sky is the limit for Embiid if he can stay healthy. People love to label him as Greg Oden, but the fact is, modern medicine has no cure for knee cartilage issues, it does for broken bones. I know this very well, some of my close friends in the field of medicine are orthopedic doctors who diagnose and treat knee issues regularly, and others conduct research to find ways to improve knee cartilage issues, the field is a long way off from doing so. Its a whole other story with broken bones, even foot bones. The only long term risk in Embiid's case is the type of pressure a guy his size with his speed and athleticism will put regularly on his foot. He may have to adapt his game and tone down his leaping , and running the floor so frequently, focus more on his post game.
Topic: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too ! (Read 61654 times)