Author Topic: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !  (Read 61734 times)

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Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #120 on: August 16, 2015, 11:13:43 AM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?
I wouldn't believe them and would low ball it. Maybe James Young a 2nd and a late first. And Ko. Maybe

I'd trade a first round pick for him, easy.

I understand the high risk, but with plenty of first round picks to spare, I'd be willing to take that gamble.

Well, the assumption in the question asked was that the celtics medical staff clears him and predicts a clean bill of health going forward, which is why I said the rest of our Nets picks. IF we assume he's healthy long term after the surgery , then he's totally worth all those picks and more. He's the mythical superstar big man celtics nation has been dreaming of.

Yep, me too.

Embiid will be worth all the Nets picks if he's cleared to be healthy moving forward. Not everyday you can get a potential great rim protector who can run the floor and has a developing post game. He'll be an All-Star if he's healthy, and while there's a chance the Nets picks could turn into a #1 overall selection, I'd still trade it for a healthy Embiid, as I know what I'll get from him. At worst, he could potentially give you 10/10/1 block per game, just by running the floor and defending, at worst. I can't imagine what he could do if he pans out.
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Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #121 on: August 16, 2015, 12:07:15 PM »

Offline Eja117

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There's no guarantee Embiid would be great. Kansas is really different than the NBA. I get the optimism, but this thing where we give up all these picks throws me off. It seems unnecessary. They'll have a log jam if he comes back healthy anyway. Wait to see him actually play

Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #122 on: August 16, 2015, 12:13:24 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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There's no guarantee Embiid would be great. Kansas is really different than the NBA. I get the optimism, but this thing where we give up all these picks throws me off. It seems unnecessary. They'll have a log jam if he comes back healthy anyway. Wait to see him actually play

There is no guarantee that any of those Nets picks will yield a single great player either. They may not even be lottery picks. I would rather take my chances with a healthy Embiid.

Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #123 on: August 16, 2015, 01:12:54 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?
I wouldn't believe them and would low ball it. Maybe James Young a 2nd and a late first. And Ko. Maybe

I'd trade a first round pick for him, easy.

I understand the high risk, but with plenty of first round picks to spare, I'd be willing to take that gamble.

Well, the assumption in the question asked was that the celtics medical staff clears him and predicts a clean bill of health going forward, which is why I said the rest of our Nets picks. IF we assume he's healthy long term after the surgery , then he's totally worth all those picks and more. He's the mythical superstar big man celtics nation has been dreaming of.
oh hell no.

all the Nets picks?   are you crazy?  no way anyone could reasonably think that Embiid could expect to have a career that's not going to be interrupted by injury.  If he were deemed healthy for the following year, I'd consider dealing from our positions of depth like PF and guard and possibly a mid-to-late first with a couple of seconds.

I do not like paying a lot for damaged or previously-damaged goods

I think you missed the assumption of the question that was asked. The original question posted was if the celtics doctors state that he will be healthy long term.
havng doctors clear embidd as if nothing ever happened to his foot is not an assumption, it is fantasy. NO doctor can say without a shadow of a doubt that NOTHING lingering will be there with embiid. nor can they say that another bone will NEVER be broken. no doctor can say embiid's play will be unaffected by all this.

it is fantasy to assume otherwise and more realistic to assume that embiid's history will raise unanswerable questions. without considering these questions the thread becomes little more than an exercise in dreamland basketball. ("what if lebron hates love and wants to join the celtics?") some questions for us to consider might include:

- will more bones break in the upcoming years?
- will the residual affects of the broken bones affect embiid's footwork thereby reducing his effectiveness?
- he will not play basketball at any level for 2 years. how will this affect his play. and for how long?
- has his ceiling been reduced by the injuries and the delay in playing?
- have we factored in that by the time he is on the court and on his way to developing, if ever, his rookie contract will be up, removing a key incentive of young talent being cheap for a while?

having a doctor say "he is ok now" does not remove these questions. embiid is really quite the gamble. are those resources better spend elsewhere?
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Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #124 on: August 16, 2015, 01:32:04 PM »

Offline Granath

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Yep, me too.

Embiid will be worth all the Nets picks if he's cleared to be healthy moving forward. Not everyday you can get a potential great rim protector who can run the floor and has a developing post game. He'll be an All-Star if he's healthy, and while there's a chance the Nets picks could turn into a #1 overall selection, I'd still trade it for a healthy Embiid, as I know what I'll get from him. At worst, he could potentially give you 10/10/1 block per game, just by running the floor and defending, at worst. I can't imagine what he could do if he pans out.

If I recall, weren't you the one who was insisting the Cs needed to take Upshaw with #16 because he would be gone before they picked at #28?
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #125 on: August 16, 2015, 01:38:05 PM »

Offline Eja117

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There's no guarantee Embiid would be great. Kansas is really different than the NBA. I get the optimism, but this thing where we give up all these picks throws me off. It seems unnecessary. They'll have a log jam if he comes back healthy anyway. Wait to see him actually play

There is no guarantee that any of those Nets picks will yield a single great player either. They may not even be lottery picks. I would rather take my chances with a healthy Embiid.
True, although I am sure those things will have value. I understand why people like Embiid. I just am not sure I want us taking a big chance on him

Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #126 on: August 16, 2015, 01:58:14 PM »

Offline Granath

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I think you heavily overestimate how 'raw' Embiid is. He has already shown much more developed skills than the players you compare him to. He has far less years of experience, which makes his skill level even more impressive.

He already can score with an array of post moves with great foot work and with either hand:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKQGEvWlacA

There is also zero evidence regarding a questionable work ethic. Immaturity , yes, but all indications are that he is a hungry, highly competitive person with an alpha mentality.

He has also grown to be 7'2 since the last time we saw him on the floor. http://www.crossingbroad.com/2015/06/joel-embiid-told-brett-brown-hes-72-now.html

Sure, there has never been a player who missed the first two seasons from injury and went on to dominate, BUT, there has never been a player who has still been growing at his size with his skills. His continued growth very likely impacted his ability to heal his navicular bone. Bones are weaker as they continue to grow. This is an unprecedented situation, making comparisons to past players with foot injuries just doesn't work.

His game is also not based heavily on athleticism as it is on size and skill, so even if he loses a little after surgery , it should not impact his ability to dominate.

Showing 1 minute of highlight reels doesn't prove a thing. Go back to the scouting reports. You'll find the word "raw" used often. I don't think Embiid even started playing basketball until 2009 or 2010. That gave him 2 or 3 years of court experience. it's impressive he progressed that much but his game was all about potential coming out of college. He was considered a 2 or 3 year project before he would reach his potential. Considering he hasn't played in the NBA, that journey still awaits.

As for his work ethic, you must have missed the reports. The ones that talked about him blowing up to 300 pounds (rumor, not fact). The ones where he was sent home on a road trip after getting into a disagreement with the assistant strength and conditioning coach (fact, not rumor). The ones where he told Noel that Philly "was my team now". There's smoke and a little fire too.

And you've still failed to address the fact that he won't play a meaningful game in 2 1/2 years with already so little experience, not to mention his age at some point starts working against his continued development. The average NBA player peaks statistically at 24 years old and holds that for a couple of years. Embiid won't play his first meaningful game until almost 23. Are you counting on him being a very late bloomer? How will such a layoff impact his game?

As for comparisons to other foot injuries, yeah, they can be made. Again, read the draft reports. There are red flags all over his durability and the list of guys goes on and on who couldn't overcome those injuries. For this scenario we're throwing that out but as hwangjini_1 pointed out it's very much a fantasy scenario.

To each his own but (1) you're not factoring in all the variables and thus overvaluing Embiid (and undervaluing the value of the picks) and (2) it's a fantasy scenario in the first place because it can't happen.
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #127 on: August 16, 2015, 02:01:24 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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There's no guarantee Embiid would be great. Kansas is really different than the NBA. I get the optimism, but this thing where we give up all these picks throws me off. It seems unnecessary. They'll have a log jam if he comes back healthy anyway. Wait to see him actually play

There is no guarantee that any of those Nets picks will yield a single great player either. They may not even be lottery picks. I would rather take my chances with a healthy Embiid.
True, although I am sure those things will have value. I understand why people like Embiid. I just am not sure I want us taking a big chance on him

This ^

Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #128 on: August 16, 2015, 02:03:12 PM »

Offline jambr380

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I would have traded the #16 pick this year which is around where our pick should end up next year. So I would say our 2016 1st, the Philly 2nd, and James Young. This is based on a positive health report from doctors moving forward and I assume would beat a number of other team's offers. People aren't lining up for Embiid anymore, but I would be willing to give him a real shot.

Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #129 on: August 16, 2015, 02:32:57 PM »

Offline Eja117

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I just want to point out here there's a money aspect too. Kinda like how Anthony Bennet seems like a reasonably attractive piece till you realize you have to pay him 5mill. Embiid will be about 5mill and will be two years removed from any competitive basketball. You will only have I think 2 years of his rookie contract left and then he may want the max. It might be worth some risk, but I'm not sure it's worth a lot.

I think the better strategy might be to try to take advantage of their logjam to get Jahil.

Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #130 on: August 16, 2015, 03:05:33 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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I think you heavily overestimate how 'raw' Embiid is. He has already shown much more developed skills than the players you compare him to. He has far less years of experience, which makes his skill level even more impressive.

He already can score with an array of post moves with great foot work and with either hand:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKQGEvWlacA

There is also zero evidence regarding a questionable work ethic. Immaturity , yes, but all indications are that he is a hungry, highly competitive person with an alpha mentality.

He has also grown to be 7'2 since the last time we saw him on the floor. http://www.crossingbroad.com/2015/06/joel-embiid-told-brett-brown-hes-72-now.html

Sure, there has never been a player who missed the first two seasons from injury and went on to dominate, BUT, there has never been a player who has still been growing at his size with his skills. His continued growth very likely impacted his ability to heal his navicular bone. Bones are weaker as they continue to grow. This is an unprecedented situation, making comparisons to past players with foot injuries just doesn't work.

His game is also not based heavily on athleticism as it is on size and skill, so even if he loses a little after surgery , it should not impact his ability to dominate.

Showing 1 minute of highlight reels doesn't prove a thing. Go back to the scouting reports. You'll find the word "raw" used often. I don't think Embiid even started playing basketball until 2009 or 2010. That gave him 2 or 3 years of court experience. it's impressive he progressed that much but his game was all about potential coming out of college. He was considered a 2 or 3 year project before he would reach his potential. Considering he hasn't played in the NBA, that journey still awaits.

As for his work ethic, you must have missed the reports. The ones that talked about him blowing up to 300 pounds (rumor, not fact). The ones where he was sent home on a road trip after getting into a disagreement with the assistant strength and conditioning coach (fact, not rumor). The ones where he told Noel that Philly "was my team now". There's smoke and a little fire too.

And you've still failed to address the fact that he won't play a meaningful game in 2 1/2 years with already so little experience, not to mention his age at some point starts working against his continued development. The average NBA player peaks statistically at 24 years old and holds that for a couple of years. Embiid won't play his first meaningful game until almost 23. Are you counting on him being a very late bloomer? How will such a layoff impact his game?

As for comparisons to other foot injuries, yeah, they can be made. Again, read the draft reports. There are red flags all over his durability and the list of guys goes on and on who couldn't overcome those injuries. For this scenario we're throwing that out but as hwangjini_1 pointed out it's very much a fantasy scenario.

To each his own but (1) you're not factoring in all the variables and thus overvaluing Embiid (and undervaluing the value of the picks) and (2) it's a fantasy scenario in the first place because it can't happen.


Well that is the thing, he has only played competitive basketball for about 2-3 years as you say, yet his game is already more advanced than a lot of guys who have been playing for 10-15 years plus. It is amazing, the game comes naturally to him. He already has an effective hook shot with either hand, advanced low post moves, and an overall decent feel for the game which is incredible considering how little time he actually has spent playing the game. Of course most scouts label him raw when they consider how little experience he has, but the same scouts rave about his potential because of how much skill he has shown even though he has so little experience. The reason most NBA players peak at 24 statistically is because they have been playing for so many years, there is nothing left for them to improve talent wise based on their capabilities. There is no physical reason they peak at that age. It makes no sense to say someone that started playing a year or two ago should peak at 24 because he's 24. Thats like saying a golf player has to peak at 24 even though he started playing at 22. Guys don't start losing athleticism in the NBA until they hit 30-32, he would have a good 6-8 years to reach that, and a good 10 years overall as a career if he stays healthy. He's a young 24 next season, both mentally and physically, as he is still growing in height!

As for the reports, I didn't miss them as you insinuate, I read them all, they are speculation and there is zero evidence. All actual photos, videos, etc. show him looking great. He is immature though, that , combined with his competitiveness/arrogance, will be a hinderance to him until he struggles against top competition and improves his maturity. This is one reason having to go through what he has to go through for his foot issues may benefit him in some ways. He will learn patience, learn about the NBA game and how other guys approach it, how to be a pro and stay out of trouble, etc. We are talking about a kid far from home with very little basketball experience and very little life experience in the type of society he has been thrust into, he will have his struggles. Compare that to Sully for example who's dad is a basketball coach and has been playing ball his whole life, yet still struggles on and off the floor, the sky is the limit for Embiid if he can stay healthy. People love to label him as Greg Oden, but the fact is, modern medicine has no cure for knee cartilage issues, it does for broken bones. I know this very well, some of my close friends in the field of medicine are orthopedic doctors who diagnose and treat knee issues regularly, and others conduct research to find ways to improve knee cartilage issues, the field is a long way off from doing so. Its a whole other story with broken bones, even foot bones. The only long term risk in Embiid's case is the type of pressure a guy his size with his speed and athleticism will put regularly on his foot. He may have to adapt his game and tone down his leaping , and running the floor so frequently, focus more on his post game.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2015, 03:17:46 PM by hpantazo »

Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #131 on: August 16, 2015, 03:24:03 PM »

Offline Who

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I think Embiid is one of those guys who looks great in drills and one-on-ones but doesn't know how to apply those same moves to game action on a consistent basis. Does not understand five-on-five basketball as well as he should given his age.

That would really bother me if he had been playing basketball all his life but since he has only been playing a few years before he got drafted ... I don't know how much weight to put on that.

Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #132 on: August 16, 2015, 03:54:50 PM »

Offline Birdman

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I feel sorry for him but glad we didn't draft him..i doubt he ever play in the NBA
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Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #133 on: August 16, 2015, 04:27:03 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?
I wouldn't believe them and would low ball it. Maybe James Young a 2nd and a late first. And Ko. Maybe

I'd trade a first round pick for him, easy.

I understand the high risk, but with plenty of first round picks to spare, I'd be willing to take that gamble.

Well, the assumption in the question asked was that the celtics medical staff clears him and predicts a clean bill of health going forward, which is why I said the rest of our Nets picks. IF we assume he's healthy long term after the surgery , then he's totally worth all those picks and more. He's the mythical superstar big man celtics nation has been dreaming of.
oh hell no.

all the Nets picks?   are you crazy?  no way anyone could reasonably think that Embiid could expect to have a career that's not going to be interrupted by injury.  If he were deemed healthy for the following year, I'd consider dealing from our positions of depth like PF and guard and possibly a mid-to-late first with a couple of seconds.

I do not like paying a lot for damaged or previously-damaged goods

I think you missed the assumption of the question that was asked. The original question posted was if the celtics doctors state that he will be healthy long term.
havng doctors clear embidd as if nothing ever happened to his foot is not an assumption, it is fantasy. NO doctor can say without a shadow of a doubt that NOTHING lingering will be there with embiid. nor can they say that another bone will NEVER be broken. no doctor can say embiid's play will be unaffected by all this.

it is fantasy to assume otherwise and more realistic to assume that embiid's history will raise unanswerable questions. without considering these questions the thread becomes little more than an exercise in dreamland basketball. ("what if lebron hates love and wants to join the celtics?") some questions for us to consider might include:

- will more bones break in the upcoming years?
- will the residual affects of the broken bones affect embiid's footwork thereby reducing his effectiveness?
- he will not play basketball at any level for 2 years. how will this affect his play. and for how long?
- has his ceiling been reduced by the injuries and the delay in playing?
- have we factored in that by the time he is on the court and on his way to developing, if ever, his rookie contract will be up, removing a key incentive of young talent being cheap for a while?

having a doctor say "he is ok now" does not remove these questions. embiid is really quite the gamble. are those resources better spend elsewhere?
exactly my point -- pure fantasy that Embiid could be projected to have a fully healthy career. 

Re: Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !
« Reply #134 on: August 16, 2015, 04:27:49 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Yep, me too.

Embiid will be worth all the Nets picks if he's cleared to be healthy moving forward. Not everyday you can get a potential great rim protector who can run the floor and has a developing post game. He'll be an All-Star if he's healthy, and while there's a chance the Nets picks could turn into a #1 overall selection, I'd still trade it for a healthy Embiid, as I know what I'll get from him. At worst, he could potentially give you 10/10/1 block per game, just by running the floor and defending, at worst. I can't imagine what he could do if he pans out.

If I recall, weren't you the one who was insisting the Cs needed to take Upshaw with #16 because he would be gone before they picked at #28?
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