Dr. J - Sixers on a 7 year plan

[PhoSita]

The problem with the whole philosophy is that it assumes player development to be exogenous, ie in a vacuum, completely unrelated to organizational culture and stability.

A point already made: rookies can bolt in free agency after their rookie deals expire. What exactly is the incentive to stay with a perennially losing organization when your rookie deal is up? You'd make more money on a max contract by staying, but if you're good enough to get the max, that extra money probably isn't enough by itself to keep you around.

Rookies can't just bolt in free agency.  They are restricted free agents so their existing team is able to match any offers.  The only way around that is if the rookie chooses to take that the minimum qualifying offer in their 5th year which rarely happens.  The best rookies, like Davis, get Max extension deals and don't even make it to free agency.

Right.  How many examples do we have of superstar players bolting after their rookie deal is over by taking the qualifying offer when they hit RFA and then becoming a UFA the next year?

Greg Monroe did it, but he's no superstar, and it's debatable whether the Pistons really wanted to extend themselves very far in order to keep him anyway.

[Big333223]

The Sixers are potentially situated very well. If Okafor is as-advertised, they're still not going to be good this coming season (another likely lottery selection) and they have the Lakers top-3 protected pick (another likely lottery selection, again). If Dario Saric comes over next year and is good, they could start next season with Okafor, Noel, Saric, and add two 2016 lottery picks to that roster. Plus they have to cap room to overpay a good vet next offseason. And that's all assuming they don't get anything from Emiid.

It's a pretty terrific base.

[SHAQATTACK]

Team rebuild = their Name

76 years

[Beat LA]

Hey, at least it's not a 5 year plan.  Those don't tend to end well, historically, haha .  To be fair, though, Embiid was supposed to give them a great leap forward , but it looks like that's now in the crapper, to say the least.

[Big333223]

Hey, at least it's not a 5 year plan.  Those don't tend to end well, historically, haha .  To be fair, though, Embiid was supposed to give them a great leap forward , but it looks like that's now in the crapper, to say the least.

The way I understand it, that's sort of the point, though. Hitting the lottery once or twice can wind up being useless if you don't get lucky. OKC got lucky with Durant, Portland got unlucky with Oden. The sixers ar giving themselves enough opportunities that they can miss a couple of times (Embiid is looking more and more like he might be a miss, Saric is up in the air) and still come away with a star to build around.

[BornReady]

I think they don't count the 2012 draft as embiid is injured and a potential bust if never recovers 
And saric is 50-50

But this is kind of messed up
Cuz whenever they land a good rookie and the team is winning
They want to tank
So they trade him e.g. MCW, KJ mcdaniels

This rebuild could very well blow up in their faces as no prospect is a guarantee
So even if they get a top pick next year it doesn't guarantee that they hit on another star

[CM0]

They traded Holiday for the pick that became Noel.
They didn't tank that year yet. They finish with 34 wins and they had the 11th pick MCW.
So the tanking process can be considered as :
2014 : Embid
2015 : Okafor
2016 : ?

Hinkie was hired May 14, 2013

So his major moves
Draft MCW
Traded Holiday and Pierre Jackson for Noel and NO 2014 1st (Elfrid Payton)
Acquire Royce White, rights to Furkan Aldemir for 2014 2nd (top 55 protected or else extinguished - extinguished)
Hire Brett Brown as Coach
Acquire Tony Wroten for 2014 2nd (top 50 protected or extinguished - not exercised)
Sign Hollis Thompson as undrafted free agent
Acquire BJ Mullins, 2018 LAC 2nd for 2014 2nd top 40 and 46-60 protected or extinguished - extinguished)
Trade Evan Turner, Lavoy Allen for Danny Granger, 2015 2nd (Luka Mitrovic)
Acquire Eric Maynor, 2015 WAS 2nd (Arturas Gudaitis), 2016 DEN 2nd for 2014 2nd (protected and ultimately extinguished)
Trade Spencer Hawes for Earl Clark, Henry Sims, 2014 2nd (Jerami Grant), 2014 2nd (Vasilije Mircic)
Waive Clark, Granger, Maynor

2014 Summer/Season
Draft (aside from above) - Embiid, KJ McDaniels
Trade rights to Elfrid Payton for rights to Dario Saric, 2015 2nd (Guillermo Hernangomez), 2017 ORL 1st
Trade Thad Young for Mbah a Moute, Alexey Shved, Future CLE 1st
Acquire Thabeet, cash for 2015 2nd (with protections and not exercised)
Sign JaKarr Sampson as undrafted free agent
Acquire Marquis Teague, 2019 2nd (more favorable of MIL/SAC) for Casper Ware
Waive Teague
Trade Arnett Moultrie for Travis Outlaw, Sixers right to swap 2018 2nd with NY, 2019 NY 2nd
Sign Robert Covington as undrafted free agent after season starts
Aquire AK47, Jorge Gutierrez, Sixers option to swap 2018 2nds with BKN, 2020 BKN 2nd for Brandon Davies
Waive Gutierrez
Sign Fulkan Aldemir
Acquire Ronny Turiaf, rights to Sergei Lishouk, 2015 HOU 2nd (JP Tokoto) for Shved
Waive Turiaf
Acquire Jared Cunningham, rights to Cenk Akyol, cash for rights to Lishouk
Waive Cunningham
Acquire Isaiah Canaan, 2015 2nd (Richaun Holmes) for KJ McDaniels
Acquire Javale McGee, Rights to Chukwudiebere Maduabum, future protected 1st for rights to Akyol
Trade MCW for future protected 1st
Claim Ish Smith off waivers
Waive AK47
Claim Thomas Robinson off waivers
Waive McGee
Claim Glenn Robinson III off waivers

2015 Summer/Season
Draft Okafor (in addition to those mentioned above)
Trade rights to Hernangomez for 2020 NY 2nd, 2021 NY 2nd
Acquire Nik Stauskas, Jason Thompson, Carl Landry, future 1st round pick, Sixers option to swap 2016 and 2017 1sts with SAC for rights to Gudaitis, rights to Mitrovic


Long list of moves, but honestly given what we know now, I don't think there is a single bad one there except perhaps the MCW trade pending the outcome of what that 1st ultimately ends up as (and that one is certainly defensible).  Sure at the time moving Turner and Allen and then Hawes looked bad, but they got a pretty nice return for what were clearly role players.  The Holiday and Young trades were both solid value even if they meant the Sixers were going to be very bad.

You can defend almost any move individually.  It's when you put them together in context that the cracks start to show.

The KJ McDaniels trade, for example.  Not that KJ is necessarily great but he showed flashes as a rookie and Hinkie traded him for a backup pg that's two years older and a 2nd rounder, and by all accounts he only did that because KJ wouldn't sign a cheap 2nd round deal for multiple years.  So rather than hold onto him an pay him, what?  Five to six million a year for 4 years when Philly has all the cap room in the world?  He unloaded him for scraps.

Mike

looking at that list of transactions, other than the Holiday for Noel and the recent Sac trade where they get the right to swap picks, none of those deals stands out as a great or brilliant move.  a lot of shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic

There's nothing impressive about tearing a team apart and purposely sucking for years. Anyone can do that.

The hard part is turning "assets" into real quality players and real quality players into a real quality team.

[Emmette Bryant]

As far as I can tell, the 76ers have taken one step forward and two steps back.

[viulo]

The problem with the whole philosophy is that it assumes player development to be exogenous, ie in a vacuum, completely unrelated to organizational culture and stability.

A point already made: rookies can bolt in free agency after their rookie deals expire. What exactly is the incentive to stay with a perennially losing organization when your rookie deal is up? You'd make more money on a max contract by staying, but if you're good enough to get the max, that extra money probably isn't enough by itself to keep you around.

Rookies can't just bolt in free agency.  They are restricted free agents so their existing team is able to match any offers.  The only way around that is if the rookie chooses to take that the minimum qualifying offer in their 5th year which rarely happens.  The best rookies, like Davis, get Max extension deals and don't even make it to free agency.

Right.  How many examples do we have of superstar players bolting after their rookie deal is over by taking the qualifying offer when they hit RFA and then becoming a UFA the next year?

Greg Monroe did it, but he's no superstar, and it's debatable whether the Pistons really wanted to extend themselves very far in order to keep him anyway.

True. But how many superstar players were on a team that wanted to be as bad as Philly wants to be?
I think the motivation to sign a short term contract with another team, so as to have some freedom if Philly matches, will certainly be there.
So, instead of taking the qualifying offer, you're signing an offer sheet for 2 years, with a 3rd year as a player option, with another team. And after those two years you're free to leave, or at least you have leverage to demand a trade.
If they don't start trying to win games, I think that's what'll happen with Noel.

[tazzmaniac]

I think they don't count the 2012 draft as embiid is injured and a potential bust if never recovers 
And saric is 50-50

But this is kind of messed up
Cuz whenever they land a good rookie and the team is winning
They want to tank
So they trade him e.g. MCW, KJ mcdaniels

This rebuild could very well blow up in their faces as no prospect is a guarantee
So even if they get a top pick next year it doesn't guarantee that they hit on another star

MCW is an inefficient PG in a league loaded with PGs.  McDaniels was a mediocre rookie with a few highlights who the Sixers would have had to overpay to keep.  The Sixers were smart to trade both of them for good returns.   

[slamtheking]

They traded Holiday for the pick that became Noel.
They didn't tank that year yet. They finish with 34 wins and they had the 11th pick MCW.
So the tanking process can be considered as :
2014 : Embid
2015 : Okafor
2016 : ?

Hinkie was hired May 14, 2013

So his major moves
Draft MCW
Traded Holiday and Pierre Jackson for Noel and NO 2014 1st (Elfrid Payton)
Acquire Royce White, rights to Furkan Aldemir for 2014 2nd (top 55 protected or else extinguished - extinguished)
Hire Brett Brown as Coach
Acquire Tony Wroten for 2014 2nd (top 50 protected or extinguished - not exercised)
Sign Hollis Thompson as undrafted free agent
Acquire BJ Mullins, 2018 LAC 2nd for 2014 2nd top 40 and 46-60 protected or extinguished - extinguished)
Trade Evan Turner, Lavoy Allen for Danny Granger, 2015 2nd (Luka Mitrovic)
Acquire Eric Maynor, 2015 WAS 2nd (Arturas Gudaitis), 2016 DEN 2nd for 2014 2nd (protected and ultimately extinguished)
Trade Spencer Hawes for Earl Clark, Henry Sims, 2014 2nd (Jerami Grant), 2014 2nd (Vasilije Mircic)
Waive Clark, Granger, Maynor

2014 Summer/Season
Draft (aside from above) - Embiid, KJ McDaniels
Trade rights to Elfrid Payton for rights to Dario Saric, 2015 2nd (Guillermo Hernangomez), 2017 ORL 1st
Trade Thad Young for Mbah a Moute, Alexey Shved, Future CLE 1st
Acquire Thabeet, cash for 2015 2nd (with protections and not exercised)
Sign JaKarr Sampson as undrafted free agent
Acquire Marquis Teague, 2019 2nd (more favorable of MIL/SAC) for Casper Ware
Waive Teague
Trade Arnett Moultrie for Travis Outlaw, Sixers right to swap 2018 2nd with NY, 2019 NY 2nd
Sign Robert Covington as undrafted free agent after season starts
Aquire AK47, Jorge Gutierrez, Sixers option to swap 2018 2nds with BKN, 2020 BKN 2nd for Brandon Davies
Waive Gutierrez
Sign Fulkan Aldemir
Acquire Ronny Turiaf, rights to Sergei Lishouk, 2015 HOU 2nd (JP Tokoto) for Shved
Waive Turiaf
Acquire Jared Cunningham, rights to Cenk Akyol, cash for rights to Lishouk
Waive Cunningham
Acquire Isaiah Canaan, 2015 2nd (Richaun Holmes) for KJ McDaniels
Acquire Javale McGee, Rights to Chukwudiebere Maduabum, future protected 1st for rights to Akyol
Trade MCW for future protected 1st
Claim Ish Smith off waivers
Waive AK47
Claim Thomas Robinson off waivers
Waive McGee
Claim Glenn Robinson III off waivers

2015 Summer/Season
Draft Okafor (in addition to those mentioned above)
Trade rights to Hernangomez for 2020 NY 2nd, 2021 NY 2nd
Acquire Nik Stauskas, Jason Thompson, Carl Landry, future 1st round pick, Sixers option to swap 2016 and 2017 1sts with SAC for rights to Gudaitis, rights to Mitrovic


Long list of moves, but honestly given what we know now, I don't think there is a single bad one there except perhaps the MCW trade pending the outcome of what that 1st ultimately ends up as (and that one is certainly defensible).  Sure at the time moving Turner and Allen and then Hawes looked bad, but they got a pretty nice return for what were clearly role players.  The Holiday and Young trades were both solid value even if they meant the Sixers were going to be very bad.

You can defend almost any move individually.  It's when you put them together in context that the cracks start to show.

The KJ McDaniels trade, for example.  Not that KJ is necessarily great but he showed flashes as a rookie and Hinkie traded him for a backup pg that's two years older and a 2nd rounder, and by all accounts he only did that because KJ wouldn't sign a cheap 2nd round deal for multiple years.  So rather than hold onto him an pay him, what?  Five to six million a year for 4 years when Philly has all the cap room in the world?  He unloaded him for scraps.

Mike

looking at that list of transactions, other than the Holiday for Noel and the recent Sac trade where they get the right to swap picks, none of those deals stands out as a great or brilliant move.  a lot of shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic

There's nothing impressive about tearing a team apart and purposely sucking for years. Anyone can do that.

The hard part is turning "assets" into real quality players and real quality players into a real quality team.

that's pretty much my point

[tazzmaniac]

The problem with the whole philosophy is that it assumes player development to be exogenous, ie in a vacuum, completely unrelated to organizational culture and stability.

A point already made: rookies can bolt in free agency after their rookie deals expire. What exactly is the incentive to stay with a perennially losing organization when your rookie deal is up? You'd make more money on a max contract by staying, but if you're good enough to get the max, that extra money probably isn't enough by itself to keep you around.

Rookies can't just bolt in free agency.  They are restricted free agents so their existing team is able to match any offers.  The only way around that is if the rookie chooses to take that the minimum qualifying offer in their 5th year which rarely happens.  The best rookies, like Davis, get Max extension deals and don't even make it to free agency.

Right.  How many examples do we have of superstar players bolting after their rookie deal is over by taking the qualifying offer when they hit RFA and then becoming a UFA the next year?

Greg Monroe did it, but he's no superstar, and it's debatable whether the Pistons really wanted to extend themselves very far in order to keep him anyway.

True. But how many superstar players were on a team that wanted to be as bad as Philly wants to be?
I think the motivation to sign a short term contract with another team, so as to have some freedom if Philly matches, will certainly be there.
So, instead of taking the qualifying offer, you're signing an offer sheet for 2 years, with a 3rd year as a player option, with another team. And after those two years you're free to leave, or at least you have leverage to demand a trade.
If they don't start trying to win games, I think that's what'll happen with Noel.

Star rookies (Cousins, Irving, etc) are often on bad teams but they still sign their extension offers.  Money talks.  Players don't turn down 5yr/100+mil extension offers.  If Noel does make it to free agency, the Sixers have the option of making a max qualifying offer (like the Bulls did with Butler) which forces any offers to be at least 3 years without options.  Rookies just don't have much leverage. 

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

I think they don't count the 2012 draft as embiid is injured and a potential bust if never recovers 
And saric is 50-50

But this is kind of messed up
Cuz whenever they land a good rookie and the team is winning
They want to tank
So they trade him e.g. MCW, KJ mcdaniels

This rebuild could very well blow up in their faces as no prospect is a guarantee
So even if they get a top pick next year it doesn't guarantee that they hit on another star

MCW and KJ McDaniels are below average NBA players with legitimately terrible offensive games...

The Sixers improved after trading them last year. 

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

The problem with the whole philosophy is that it assumes player development to be exogenous, ie in a vacuum, completely unrelated to organizational culture and stability.

The Sixers emphasize the development of their young players as much as anybody in the NBA. It was one of the main reasons they hired Brett Brown, and is the driving factor in everything they do. They give rookies minutes let them play through mistakes, and don't hide them on the bench. Culture really isn't an issue for the franchise.

The idea that a team with as little talent as everybody claims they have would be in the top half of the NBA defensively with bad culture is a bit nonsensical.

[slamtheking]

The problem with the whole philosophy is that it assumes player development to be exogenous, ie in a vacuum, completely unrelated to organizational culture and stability.

A point already made: rookies can bolt in free agency after their rookie deals expire. What exactly is the incentive to stay with a perennially losing organization when your rookie deal is up? You'd make more money on a max contract by staying, but if you're good enough to get the max, that extra money probably isn't enough by itself to keep you around.

Rookies can't just bolt in free agency.  They are restricted free agents so their existing team is able to match any offers.  The only way around that is if the rookie chooses to take that the minimum qualifying offer in their 5th year which rarely happens.  The best rookies, like Davis, get Max extension deals and don't even make it to free agency.

Right.  How many examples do we have of superstar players bolting after their rookie deal is over by taking the qualifying offer when they hit RFA and then becoming a UFA the next year?

Greg Monroe did it, but he's no superstar, and it's debatable whether the Pistons really wanted to extend themselves very far in order to keep him anyway.

True. But how many superstar players were on a team that wanted to be as bad as Philly wants to be?
I think the motivation to sign a short term contract with another team, so as to have some freedom if Philly matches, will certainly be there.
So, instead of taking the qualifying offer, you're signing an offer sheet for 2 years, with a 3rd year as a player option, with another team. And after those two years you're free to leave, or at least you have leverage to demand a trade.
If they don't start trying to win games, I think that's what'll happen with Noel.

Star rookies (Cousins, Irving, etc) are often on bad teams but they still sign their extension offers.  Money talks.  Players don't turn down 5yr/100+mil extension offers.  If Noel does make it to free agency, the Sixers have the option of making a max qualifying offer (like the Bulls did with Butler) which forces any offers to be at least 3 years without options.  Rookies just don't have much leverage. 

the Sixers are on an unprecedented effort to be horrible.  while I think you have a point about rookies taking the money on the after-rookie deals, they've been on bad teams trying to get better.  Philly is not in that situation so I would not assume Noel will be like other rookies and just take the money and suffer through that mess.  Monroe offers an example that moving on can pay rather nicely.  It's not like Philly has been filling in other positions that they need -- they just keep taking other players that play the same position as Noel. 
What's the message to Noel here?  He's either a trade chip or there isn't the confidence in him to be their center so they're loading up to find someone better.  No effort so far by Philly to use their trade chips (which is pretty much Noel and lots of draft picks) to fill in the other gaping holes on their roster. 

I think Philly and their young players will be outside the norm on what happens when trying to keep players after their rookie deals are up.