Dr. J - Sixers on a 7 year plan

[manl_lui]

not bad I mean, job security

"You cannot really fire me, cuz I promised to tank for 4 years at least, we're in year 4...so expect more suckage"

I still think one of those picks are wasted...I mean

Noel/Okafor/Embiid

one of them will come off the bench imo, or will one of them get traded...

they have a lot of work to do to fill in the rest of the roster

[SHAQATTACK]

DR J ...who is one of my all time fav players ....VA Squires ABA..


He ll be 100 years old before he sees them succeed

[Ed Hollison]

The problem with the whole philosophy is that it assumes player development to be exogenous, ie in a vacuum, completely unrelated to organizational culture and stability.

A point already made: rookies can bolt in free agency after their rookie deals expire. What exactly is the incentive to stay with a perennially losing organization when your rookie deal is up? You'd make more money on a max contract by staying, but if you're good enough to get the max, that extra money probably isn't enough by itself to keep you around.

Here's another point: No historic NBA superstar has ever turned a dysfunctional, perpetually losing franchise into a champion on his rookie deal (or equivalent before the current CBA). Think about Jordan, the consensus pick for best player in the past 50 years. What did Jordan accomplish before the age of 30, and without another top-50 NBA icon in Scottie Pippen, and a superb coach in Phil Jackson?

Take another example... A lot of people believe Anthony Davis is the next transcendent player, probably the best draft pick since Lebron. And yet, what has Davis been able to accomplish on his own? Take the Pelicans to fringe playoff status? You could make the argument that since he re-upped for a second contract, we'll have to wait and see what he accomplishes in the next 5 years with that team. But let's remind ourselves that the Sixers don't seem to have drafted anyone near the talent level of Davis.

Besides, even if they did have someone like Davis (like, let's imagine that Noel was as good as Davis), once again the previous point: would that player re-sign with the Sixers just because the franchise promises it will get good after years of suckitude?

Building a good basketball team isn't just building a collection of guys with the best athletic DNA and pre-age-20 skills. There's an element of development, culture, and coaching involved. Philly is gambling that it can just flip the switch at some moment in time. Good luck to them.

[Boris Badenov]

Even if Embiid never plays, they have a promising young frontcourt in Saric, Okafor and Noel, and then five first rounders in the next two years, two or three of which could be top 10. Heck, they could end up with another top 3 pick this year.

What they've given up to get that is that fans will get three years of 20-win basketball instead of three years of 35-win basketball.

Their current roster would probably look a little better than ours does right now if they hadn't tanked - but not much better. They'd maybe have guys like Kaminsky and Vonleh instead of what they have now, to go with Holiday, Young and MCW, and only their own future picks.

If you're a Sixers fan which would you pick?

[TheTruthFot18]

Sixers can likely get 2 top 10 picks. The Heat and Thunder picks will be much lower than this year so +/- #20 on each.

Just a thought: Between Boston, Philly, Denver, Toronto could very well have 10 of the 30 first round picks. Chicago might even get two if Sac pulls off some magic.

Not good since our picks won't be the only ones available. Although Philly and Denver, with the better picks, will likely want to keep them.

[slamtheking]

looking at that list of transactions, other than the Holiday for Noel and the recent Sac trade where they get the right to swap picks, none of those deals stands out as a great or brilliant move.  a lot of shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic

Fair point, but when you acquire future picks and cash and give up nothing (I don't mean nothing of value, I mean nothing), it is hard to call it a bad move.  even if those future 2nd round picks never play in the league, it is still a quality move. 

those moves are the equivalent of grabbing a penny from the give-a-penny/take-a-penny trays at a convenience store and walking out the door.  sure, you got something for nothing but it's not worth a lot.

[PhoSita]

Even if Embiid never plays, they have a promising young frontcourt in Saric, Okafor and Noel, and then five first rounders in the next two years, two or three of which could be top 10. Heck, they could end up with another top 3 pick this year.

What they've given up to get that is that fans will get three years of 20-win basketball instead of three years of 35-win basketball.

Their current roster would probably look a little better than ours does right now if they hadn't tanked - but not much better. They'd maybe have guys like Kaminsky and Vonleh instead of what they have now, to go with Holiday, Young and MCW, and only their own future picks.

If you're a Sixers fan which would you pick?

I know what I'd pick.

I don't know about Sixers fans, but I think I have a sense of what many Celts fans on these forums would choose.

[Evantime34]

What is crazy about the Sixers whole process is they have been making millions of dollars while tanking. Other teams lose money when they aren't good, Philly is taking advantage of the fact that they can be bad and still turn a profit.

As to the Sixers plan I am going to try to hold off on judging it until I see what the next phase looks like. If they are able to build a cohesive unit with their high draft picks and thus maximize their individual value through team play than this will be an unmitigated success. However, drafting the best player overall every time without any view towards the team fit and player fit around him could create a team where none of the pieces fit and are thus unable to maximize their potential.

[slamtheking]

well, at least the good thing about having a 7-year plan is they'll know it's not working before they get half-way through it 

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Trouble, is seven years is a long time basketball wise.   That is half a career for some.   By the time, this plan comes, they will have some old guys on the decline.   Also, they are the laughing stock of the league, in many eyes, no one will want to go there.

Not to say, once their 3 draft players come together and start to play good ball, how can you add talent?
- Trades (nope, they don't have assets to deal with)
- FA (hard to attract them saying "come here we'll be champion soon".
they have to make their rotation player through the draft as well, for few years till they are top 5 in the east, then they might attract FA.

The Sixers have more ammo in a trade than any other rebuilding team...

FA has never been a viable option for them anyways, their best signing in the past 20 years is a post achilles tear Elton Brand.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

looking at that list of transactions, other than the Holiday for Noel and the recent Sac trade where they get the right to swap picks, none of those deals stands out as a great or brilliant move.  a lot of shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic

Fair point, but when you acquire future picks and cash and give up nothing (I don't mean nothing of value, I mean nothing), it is hard to call it a bad move.  even if those future 2nd round picks never play in the league, it is still a quality move. 

those moves are the equivalent of grabbing a penny from the give-a-penny/take-a-penny trays at a convenience store and walking out the door.  sure, you got something for nothing but it's not worth a lot.

Not sure I agree, it's just another ticket in the raffle. The more you have the more likely you are to win(2nd round gem).

Additionally, 2nd round picks are pretty useful in receiving salary dumps as send backs.

In short, if you steal enough pennies you've got something of value.

[celticsclay]

The 76ers have really been dealt a bunch of bad luck recently. The most obvious is the Embiid injury. He may never play in the NBA (we can debate that in a separate thread, but I will note that comment was said in the same way that it was said he may miss the season long before it was announced). If he never plays that is a complete waste of a year which no franchise can afford.

However, going back before the Embiid disaster they had the worst possible luck on their draft picks. With two months left in the season it looked like they would get a minimum of three first round draft picks from Oklahoma and Miami's pick with a 30 chance of getting the Lakers pick with some lottery luck.

They obviously got none of those, and the Miami one certainly stings. With 6 days left in the season it looked like they would get the 11th pick in the draft from them. Instead Miami got justice Winslow and now the 76ers will probably get a pick in the 20's from a team having dragic, bosh, wade, deng, whiteside, winslow and others. That is a massive loss that people don't seem to really even discuss. Some could argue it may be worth 3 late first rounders because the Celtics were going to pay 4 to get the Heat pick when it was just a little higher.

Finally, just for insult they got slapped with a fine from the league for not disclosing the extent of Holidays injury which may hurt their chances of making deals with other teams down the road.

Oh and in the draft, the Lakers took the player they wanted forcing them to draft a player that is not a great fit with their only established player.

Brutal offseason.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

The Heat pick was brutal, 11 would have been money in this draft. So many things went wrong for that to happen. Still not sure it goes past 18, that team has high end talent but they are really thin.

I don't think the OKC pick will really lose that much value. I think next years draft will be a bit deeper.

The Lakers pick was hoping for a Festivus miracle at the lottery.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

The 76ers have really been dealt a bunch of bad luck recently. The most obvious is the Embiid injury. He may never play in the NBA (we can debate that in a separate thread, but I will note that comment was said in the same way that it was said he may miss the season long before it was announced). If he never plays that is a complete waste of a year which no franchise can afford.

However, going back before the Embiid disaster they had the worst possible luck on their draft picks. With two months left in the season it looked like they would get a minimum of three first round draft picks from Oklahoma and Miami's pick with a 30 chance of getting the Lakers pick with some lottery luck.

They obviously got none of those, and the Miami one certainly stings. With 6 days left in the season it looked like they would get the 11th pick in the draft from them. Instead Miami got justice Winslow and now the 76ers will probably get a pick in the 20's from a team having dragic, bosh, wade, deng, whiteside, winslow and others. That is a massive loss that people don't seem to really even discuss. Some could argue it may be worth 3 late first rounders because the Celtics were going to pay 4 to get the Heat pick when it was just a little higher.

Finally, just for insult they got slapped with a fine from the league for not disclosing the extent of Holidays injury which may hurt their chances of making deals with other teams down the road.

Oh and in the draft, the Lakers took the player they wanted forcing them to draft a player that is not a great fit with their only established player.

Brutal offseason.

Boston's had its share of good fortune over the decades, so I'm not complaining per sé, but I'm also not going to feel bad for Philly. Tim Duncan could've been (should've been?) racking up titles for Boston, and none of the Sixers draft picks has died.

[tazzmaniac]

The problem with the whole philosophy is that it assumes player development to be exogenous, ie in a vacuum, completely unrelated to organizational culture and stability.

A point already made: rookies can bolt in free agency after their rookie deals expire. What exactly is the incentive to stay with a perennially losing organization when your rookie deal is up? You'd make more money on a max contract by staying, but if you're good enough to get the max, that extra money probably isn't enough by itself to keep you around.

Here's another point: No historic NBA superstar has ever turned a dysfunctional, perpetually losing franchise into a champion on his rookie deal (or equivalent before the current CBA). Think about Jordan, the consensus pick for best player in the past 50 years. What did Jordan accomplish before the age of 30, and without another top-50 NBA icon in Scottie Pippen, and a superb coach in Phil Jackson?

Take another example... A lot of people believe Anthony Davis is the next transcendent player, probably the best draft pick since Lebron. And yet, what has Davis been able to accomplish on his own? Take the Pelicans to fringe playoff status? You could make the argument that since he re-upped for a second contract, we'll have to wait and see what he accomplishes in the next 5 years with that team. But let's remind ourselves that the Sixers don't seem to have drafted anyone near the talent level of Davis.

Besides, even if they did have someone like Davis (like, let's imagine that Noel was as good as Davis), once again the previous point: would that player re-sign with the Sixers just because the franchise promises it will get good after years of suckitude?

Building a good basketball team isn't just building a collection of guys with the best athletic DNA and pre-age-20 skills. There's an element of development, culture, and coaching involved. Philly is gambling that it can just flip the switch at some moment in time. Good luck to them.

Rookies can't just bolt in free agency.  They are restricted free agents so their existing team is able to match any offers.  The only way around that is if the rookie chooses to take that the minimum qualifying offer in their 5th year which rarely happens.  The best rookies, like Davis, get Max extension deals and don't even make it to free agency.