Simmons/Windhorst Podcast

[Snakehead]

The biggest hampering on the Celtics player in terms of trade is none of them have that "wow potential" connected to them.  They are a collection of solid to good players that will play hard. 


That, and the non-lotto picks this season will make trading for a star a challenge. 


That's why I think this will be another offseasons of filling up on future trade pieces.  To move the solid players for a chance at the "wow potential" to move later.

People say this a lot (fans and media) so hard to argue I guess if that's the perception, but I don't get how Smart doesn't have star potential.  He is already a top level defensive player, he's a better passer than he was advertized (or he improved a lot going into the NBA, either way) his shooting was a gigantic leap this year, and near the end of the year he seemed to realize he can attack the rim on layups and dunks.

High ceiling in my opinion.  Only issue is the dearth of PG's that are good but a lot of those PGs are terrible on defense.  Not only is Marcus great already, he can check even the SF position.

I don't even want to trade him!  Just saying.

I think we could package guys plus picks and have a good offer.  But you are right in a lot of ways if you compare to some other teams.  For example, hard to argue we can out offer for Cousins, even with all our assets, when the Magic can have assets plus a guy like Vucevic.

Maybe it'll take a year for our players to develop more to solidify as assets.

We will have tons of cap room though and I know the history, but the team could turn around quick just by signing guys if we can convince them to come.

Anyways, I'm happy we have flexibility.  Part of that strategy is being patient though, which isn't always easy.

[celticsclay]

I agree that the Celtics lack talent and overachieved.

I entirely disagree, however, that the Cavs were bored most of the time and played with an "enormous" margin of error.  It seemed like the Cavs hit every big shot when they needed to, got calls from the refs down the stretch (in the first two games, at least), and still weren't blowing the Cetlcis out of the water.  A missed shot by the Cavs here, an open make for the Celtics there, along with even officiating down the stretch, and the Celtics may have pulled out a game or two. 

I also got the sense that the Cavs were playing all-out the entire series; it just never seemed like they were coasting.  I wouldn't call that an "enormous" margin of error.

You don't play Lebron 46 minutes in a game if you are not trying (and no less than 42 in any other game). That really should be the end of the bored and coasting discussion. The guy was literally cramping and staying in the game in game 4. We were clearly outmatched and had a huge talent deficit (and got no help from the officials), but lets not go over board with the coasting and bored stuff. Simmons gets paid to exaggerate situations and be sensational, we don't.

[Vox_Populi]

I guess LeBron and Irving were playing 43 and 41 minutes a night because they wanted to, against such an inferior opponent.

[LarBrd33]

The Cavs players played big minutes, but were coasting for most of those minutes.

One thing I should point out for those who skipped the actual podcast.... Simmons was happy the team made the playoffs in spite of the fact they are eons away and just got swept by a disinterested Cavs team on cruise control.   

I feel the same way.  Glad we played hard and made the playoffs.  It was good for Stevens and might benefit us this summer in free agency.

[PhoSita]

Easy for Simmons to say he's happy and everything despite how far away the team is.

He lives in LA, attends all Clippers home games, and spends all of his time covering the NBA, watching all of the best teams play on a regular basis.

For those of us who only really have time to follow the Celtics, it's a rather different perspective.  If the Celts aren't playing high level basketball, you usually only get to see that level of play when other teams dismantle the Celtics.

[PhoSita]

That's why I think this will be another offseasons of filling up on future trade pieces.  To move the solid players for a chance at the "wow potential" to move later.

I can see that happening, but that has to be the worst case scenario right? I think the development of our young players will improve the team incrementally.

It seems that the prevailing wisdom on this board seems that if the C's don't make any moves then they will be back in the lottery next year which I don't agree with.

Actually, it seems like the general feeling is that without any significant changes there's a good chance they'll finish above .500, but they'll still have the potential to finish 5-10 games below that, depending on how the schedule shakes out and what happens with injuries, improvement to other Eastern Conference teams, etc.

[wdleehi]

The biggest hampering on the Celtics player in terms of trade is none of them have that "wow potential" connected to them.  They are a collection of solid to good players that will play hard. 


That, and the non-lotto picks this season will make trading for a star a challenge. 


That's why I think this will be another offseasons of filling up on future trade pieces.  To move the solid players for a chance at the "wow potential" to move later.

People say this a lot (fans and media) so hard to argue I guess if that's the perception, but I don't get how Smart doesn't have star potential.  He is already a top level defensive player, he's a better passer than he was advertized (or he improved a lot going into the NBA, either way) his shooting was a gigantic leap this year, and near the end of the year he seemed to realize he can attack the rim on layups and dunks.

High ceiling in my opinion.  Only issue is the dearth of PG's that are good but a lot of those PGs are terrible on defense.  Not only is Marcus great already, he can check even the SF position.

I don't even want to trade him!  Just saying.

I think we could package guys plus picks and have a good offer.  But you are right in a lot of ways if you compare to some other teams.  For example, hard to argue we can out offer for Cousins, even with all our assets, when the Magic can have assets plus a guy like Vucevic.

Maybe it'll take a year for our players to develop more to solidify as assets.

We will have tons of cap room though and I know the history, but the team could turn around quick just by signing guys if we can convince them to come.

Anyways, I'm happy we have flexibility.  Part of that strategy is being patient though, which isn't always easy.

I think Smart has a lot of untapped potential, but if you listen to what others are saying from around the league, it sounds that they don't believe that the likely ceiling is a star.  That's not to say he will not reach that level, but it would effect his trade value.


And I am not saying trade to tank.  I am saying trade some of the depth potential for a star potential.  Multiple players for one player.  Consolidate the talent currently and use the multitude of draft picks to refill the depth. 

[Celtics18]

I think the whole "the Cavs were coasting" line of reasoning is a bit overstated.  I agree that there were times they looked like they were on cruise control, but there were also quite a few critical moments where we tested them and forced them to play their butts off to beat us.

We were never a threat to win the series, but we gave them a good battle.

[Evantime34]

That's why I think this will be another offseasons of filling up on future trade pieces.  To move the solid players for a chance at the "wow potential" to move later.

I can see that happening, but that has to be the worst case scenario right? I think the development of our young players will improve the team incrementally.

It seems that the prevailing wisdom on this board seems that if the C's don't make any moves then they will be back in the lottery next year which I don't agree with.

Actually, it seems like the general feeling is that without any significant changes there's a good chance they'll finish above .500, but they'll still have the potential to finish 5-10 games below that, depending on how the schedule shakes out and what happens with injuries, improvement to other Eastern Conference teams, etc.

I guess the negative opinions stick out more in my mind, so I thought that was a consensus. Where opinions differ is I'm assuming the chance that they finish 5-10 games below .500.

[PhoSita]

And I am not saying trade to tank.  I am saying trade some of the depth potential for a star potential.  Multiple players for one player.  Consolidate the talent currently and use the multitude of draft picks to refill the depth.

Of course, this is pretty hard to do.  In the NBA quality almost always trumps quantity, so it's hard to trade the latter for the former.

The exception is when a team can't afford to keep all of its current talent, a star player soon to hit free agency is disgruntled or too old for a team's core, or a team is too top-heavy and needs to add depth in order to succeed with its two or three main guys.



Off the top of my head, teams that are too top heavy:

- Sacramento ... probably not Cousins this year, but Gay could be available (meh)
- Clippers ... no incentive to let Deandre go in FA because they're at the cap; Blake and CP3 are untouchable
- Raptors ... Derozan could be available (again, meh); I don't buy that they'll give up on JV yet
- OKC ... don't think Westbrook or Durant are going anywhere, but I wouldn't be shocked if Ibaka is traded for pieces

Teams that are capped out:

- Warriors ... will need to dump Lee or Iggy; Lee's a poor fit for the Celts, but Iggy could be a solid wing rental, though he's way overpaid now
- Bulls ... Gibson will probably be available; Noah or Gasol might be had for a king's ransom


Stars getting restless:

- Love might skip out on the Cavs
- Cousins has 3 years left on his deal, so this summer probably isn't the time
- Lesser names like Hibbert, Big Al, Brook Lopez all have player options; could be affordable rentals if they exercise those options; Batum is entering the last year of his deal and might be a trade candidate; Gallinari is another guy on an expiring, could be an OK buy-low

[fairweatherfan]

I think the whole "the Cavs were coasting" line of reasoning is a bit overstated.  I agree that there were times they looked like they were on cruise control, but there were also quite a few critical moments where we tested them and forced them to play their butts off to beat us.

We were never a threat to win the series, but we gave them a good battle.

I think there were times when they weren't really engaged with the game, but we did a good job making sure they couldn't keep coasting and had to lock in a few times each game to stay in front.  Outside of the scuffles Game 4 sure felt like they were just sleepwalking their way to a win though, but that's largely because of our ineptitude on offense I think.

[PhoSita]

I think the whole "the Cavs were coasting" line of reasoning is a bit overstated.  I agree that there were times they looked like they were on cruise control, but there were also quite a few critical moments where we tested them and forced them to play their butts off to beat us.

We were never a threat to win the series, but we gave them a good battle.

I think there were times when they weren't really engaged with the game, but we did a good job making sure they couldn't keep coasting and had to lock in a few times each game to stay in front.  Outside of the scuffles Game 4 sure felt like they were just sleepwalking their way to a win though, but that's largely because of our ineptitude on offense I think.

To me it felt like the Celts regularly out-executed the Cavs but just couldn't hit shots due to a lack of offensive talent, and the Cavs at times just stumbled or barged their way into points by physically overwhelming the Celts or simply being able to hit bad shots through sheer scoring talent. 

The Cavs were not forced play quality basketball on either end, at least not for more than a few possessions in a row.


Basically, the Cavs were like a 12 year old playing against the computer on Rookie difficulty.  Making poor, haphazard, or lazy decisions but having things go their way regardless.

[LarBrd33]

The biggest hampering on the Celtics player in terms of trade is none of them have that "wow potential" connected to them.  They are a collection of solid to good players that will play hard. 


That, and the non-lotto picks this season will make trading for a star a challenge. 


That's why I think this will be another offseasons of filling up on future trade pieces.  To move the solid players for a chance at the "wow potential" to move later.

People say this a lot (fans and media) so hard to argue I guess if that's the perception, but I don't get how Smart doesn't have star potential.  He is already a top level defensive player, he's a better passer than he was advertized (or he improved a lot going into the NBA, either way) his shooting was a gigantic leap this year, and near the end of the year he seemed to realize he can attack the rim on layups and dunks.

High ceiling in my opinion.  Only issue is the dearth of PG's that are good but a lot of those PGs are terrible on defense.  Not only is Marcus great already, he can check even the SF position.

I don't even want to trade him!  Just saying.

I think we could package guys plus picks and have a good offer.  But you are right in a lot of ways if you compare to some other teams.  For example, hard to argue we can out offer for Cousins, even with all our assets, when the Magic can have assets plus a guy like Vucevic.

Maybe it'll take a year for our players to develop more to solidify as assets.

We will have tons of cap room though and I know the history, but the team could turn around quick just by signing guys if we can convince them to come.

Anyways, I'm happy we have flexibility.  Part of that strategy is being patient though, which isn't always easy.

I think Smart has a lot of untapped potential, but if you listen to what others are saying from around the league, it sounds that they don't believe that the likely ceiling is a star.  That's not to say he will not reach that level, but it would effect his trade value.

Him developing into a "rich man's Tony Allen" seems pretty fair, imo.  RIght now he's a defensive role player.  That might be his destiny.  His offensive game is pretty terrible right now and it's not like we have much of a history of converting terrible offensive players into competent ones.  I want to see him study tapes of Gary Payton, though.  I think he can develop a back-to-basket game. 

[Evantime34]

And I am not saying trade to tank.  I am saying trade some of the depth potential for a star potential.  Multiple players for one player.  Consolidate the talent currently and use the multitude of draft picks to refill the depth.

Of course, this is pretty hard to do.  In the NBA quality almost always trumps quantity, so it's hard to trade the latter for the former.

The exception is when a team can't afford to keep all of its current talent, a star player soon to hit free agency is disgruntled or too old for a team's core, or a team is too top-heavy and needs to add depth in order to succeed with its two or three main guys.



Off the top of my head, teams that are too top heavy:

- Sacramento ... probably not Cousins this year, but Gay could be available (meh)
- Clippers ... no incentive to let Deandre go in FA because they're at the cap; Blake and CP3 are untouchable
- Raptors ... Derozan could be available (again, meh); I don't buy that they'll give up on JV yet
- OKC ... don't think Westbrook or Durant are going anywhere, but I wouldn't be shocked if Ibaka is traded for pieces

Teams that are capped out:

- Warriors ... will need to dump Lee or Iggy; Lee's a poor fit for the Celts, but Iggy could be a solid wing rental, though he's way overpaid now
- Bulls ... Gibson will probably be available; Noah or Gasol might be had for a king's ransom


Stars getting restless:

- Love might skip out on the Cavs
- Cousins has 3 years left on his deal, so this summer probably isn't the time
- Lesser names like Hibbert, Big Al, Brook Lopez all have player options; could be affordable rentals if they exercise those options; Batum is entering the last year of his deal and might be a trade candidate; Gallinari is another guy on an expiring, could be an OK buy-low

I would add Lawson to that list.

Hibbert could be had for a deep discount if he picks up his option and Indy decides they are absolutely going to move him regardless.

Cousins I think is more likely than you indicated. With a new owner who wants to play an uptempo style and put his mark on the team I wouldn't be shocked if they shopped him. Especially because there are rumors they took phone calls on him at the deadline last year.

My favorite move would be adding Harrison Barnes for the price of taking on David Lee and probably one of our firsts.

[PhoSita]

Him developing into a "rich man's Tony Allen" seems pretty fair, imo.

I'd like to point out again that Tony Allen has been the 3rd or 4th best player for significant stretches for one of the better teams in the league ever since joining Memphis.

If Tony Allen could shoot as well as Marcus Smart shot in his rookie season he'd arguably be one of the more valuable wing players in the league.

The challenge for Marcus will be improving as an inside finisher, because that's the area in which TA is far superior to him.