I said yes. These are my conditions and reasons....They have to take all of Avery's contract. No bad contracts back. They also have to kick in a couple future 2nds. Otherwise it isn't worth it to me.
But if they did....I do it and this is why.
Avery isn't going to be the difference between us and a ring, but a 12th pick could. There is a 2.5% chance (I think) of getting a top 3 pick.
There is a decent chance we get a player about as good as Avery or that we can now trade up for a player better. Even if the player is a tad worse for several years they are on a rookie contract, so now you have to decide.....is said player ANNNNDDD like 5 million dollars for the next 4 years better?
Next. James Young needs to see the court. He has spent the year doing well in Maine (a lot like Avery did at the exact same age) and he needs to start to play. If you want James Young to have trade value he has to play. It is hard for James to play with Avery, Jae C, ET, and IT in his way. Make space and things can happen.
Avery has likely peaked. His numbers are down just a tad from last year. This is his healthiest year ever and I doubt he gets healthier from here as he gets older.
If we were to lose Avery and the 12th pick were a big bust....would that be a serious set back? I don't think it would be. First of all we'd have saved a lot of money, but I just don't think Avery is one of those irreplaceable guys and with all the picks and money and trade exceptions...I think we'd be ok. It's a gamble but you've got money to lose and you might win....you might even win big.
Next...we need a good big badly. We saw what KG did. I don't think you can hope for KG at 12, but you can hope for a good big at 12 and you have to take shots. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. KO isn't getting it done. Sully isn't really getting it done. If we pick two bigs in this draft...if we get some combo of Kaminsky, Trey Lyles, WCS, Myles Turner, or possibly Harrel or Porzingis. That could help. We'd still have the Clips pick to try to pick a combo guard or a d and 3 guy. Guys like Terran Petaway or RJ Hunter would be out there. Maybe even Oliver Hanlan could work. As a BC guy he could actually be likely to resign here if he worked out and he's an inch taller than Avery so you never know.
All in all I think it's worth it.