Simmons and Lowe talk Rondo on the BS Report pod - Knicks are their best guess

[obnoxiousmime]

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2864045

Bill Simmons had Zack Lowe on his pod yesterday and they talked basketball and the Celtics.

Boston-related comments:

- Simmons mentions he's looking forward to Smart vs. Exum this season because Exum has been warming the bench for the Aussie team during the FIBA tournament. Simmons jokes that Utah fans are nervous about their new guy now.

- While talking about the Bledsoe situation, Lowe brings up that he doesn't know if Phoenix is a Rondo team, even though McDonough is a former Celtics exec. He mentions them because Bledsoe could be dealt and Dragic is a FA next season, meaning they're not as secure as one might think at the position.

- They start talking about the other restricted FA Greg Monroe possibly being in a sign-and-trade and Lowe says Bledsoe is a better shooter than Rondo, which means he's a better fit with Smith and Drummond who "can only dunk." Simmons says Stan Van Gundy is brash enough to just buy out Brandon Jennings, whom both Simmons and Lowe have a low opinion of.

- They switch to Rondo which is the "real reason they're doing this podcast" according to Simmons. He says the Celtics will be horrible (bottom 5) this season and he would be surprised if Rondo started the season in Boston. Lowe says if he had to bet, things will stay "status quo," but also said he feels Boston decided a long time ago they "don't want to pay his next contract." The problem is he has no idea what the market is because even though there are "depressing (referring to trade value) factors" such as his injury and contract status, there are also teams that love Rondo. These are "old school" teams who love his competitiveness and think he's a winner.

Lowe continues, mentioning the Knicks who have a ton of cap room next year as one of the teams that would love Rondo. So why would any team trade for Rondo when the Knicks can just wait until he's a free agent and sign him then?

Simmons wonders which free agents are actually going to be available next year anyway now that Love is basically locked into Cleveland. He speculates that the "desperate" Knicks could offer something like two first rounders, Shumpert, Hardaway, and take Wallace's contract. Unfortunately for Celts fans, Lowe points out that the Knicks can't even deal their first rounder until 2018-2020 at the earliest. Simmons then says it still doesn't feel like that package is enough for someone who went toe-to-toe with peak LeBron in the playoffs.

Lowe says the Celtics might have some leverage because there basically aren't any stars that will be available in the near future besides maybe Durant in 2016. Love is gone, Carmelo is gone, LeBron is gone, Aldridge is gone. Hibbert and Lopez's values have dropped considerably, and Marc Gasol loves Memphis and would be unlikely to leave. Lowe warns that teams saving their cap space for a star might be waiting forever or end up spending the money on someone they regret.

He then says Dallas would be a great fit for Rondo in free agency with Nowitzki being a great pick and roll/pop guy and Parsons and Ellis on the wing. He asks why wouldn't teams interested in Rondo now but without the cap space until the offseason just wait until he's a free agent? They conclude by saying Dallas has nothing to trade anyway.

They segue to Houston and say Ariza's salary would definitely have to be in any trade even though he was just signed. They also have Terrence Jones and the Pelicans pick from the Asik trade. Lowe says Morey believes talent always finds a way to mesh, but in his own (Lowe's) opinion Harden and Rondo would be a tough match since they both need the ball in their hands.

Bill then says Charlotte "is the team right now that could trade for him." They have enough cap flexibility to make it work and Vonleh, who "the Celtics considered taking with the 6th pick in the draft." They then talk about whether Kemba and Rondo could play together, with Lowe being skeptical. He says a Rondo trade would basically mean Kemba is not their guy. Simmons says Kemba could back up Rondo and also play side-by-side for limited minutes. Lowe says Stephenson, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Rondo would be a tough lineup to play given their shooting ability. Simmons then says Kidd-Gilchrist could be in the trade then and he believes his shot would improve like Bruce Bowen's did. Lowe admit it's "possible" but says you can't count on that in trade talks. Simmons reminds Lowe that Rondo and Jefferson are buddies!

Lowe brought up the Heat as an interesting option despite their recent friction. Lowe said a Miami/Boston transaction would be fascinating since he recently read Pat Riley's autobiography which is full of anti-Celtics talk.

Simmons then brings up Sacramento and he says the owner Ranadive is "eccentric" enough to trade for Rondo without any guarantee of re-signing. Lowe says that's one of the teams that actually makes sense, since they have their picks, an OK guy in Derrick Williams, and the other contracts to fit Rondo's deal. Lowe jokes that they need a pass-first PG and Rondo fits that so much he passes up two layups a game. Still, Lowe doesn't believe Rondo would re-sign there. He says the best option for Rondo considering the Western Conference is so competitive is to go to an Eastern Conference team with some talent and cap room.

Simmons concludes that in free agency he'd bet on the Knicks and then Houston. Lowe agrees that New York is the best bet.

Anyway it was quite an interesting conversation which is not surprising since Lowe is one of, if not the best, basketball writer out there right now. What hit me like a lightning bolt was that obviously Rondo and New York is the most likely scenario. The Knicks have plenty of cap space next year and Rondo and Melo have talked about playing together before. New York also obviously fulfills Rondo's "big market" desire. In fact, I'm sure Rondo and Melo have already talked about this possibility privately.

The only questions are 1) Dolan would definitely want to sign a big name like Rondo but is Phil Jackson a Rondo guy? That's unclear. 2) Rondo and Melo making 40 million would not leave a lot of space for the rest of the team. I think the Knicks would definitely try to keep Hardaway and avoid a sign/trade at all costs because they really need him and his cheap rookie deal.

[fairweatherfan]

Knicks and Lakers have always been the most plausible destinations for Rondo, since they both desperately need a PG, have tons of money to throw around, and are in cities that Rondo would be more likely to resign in. 

...problem is neither one has very good assets to put together a viable offer with.  But as Lowe points out, if they wait a year that might not matter.

[Fafnir]

Knicks and Lakers have always been the most plausible destinations for Rondo, since they both desperately need a PG, have tons of money to throw around, and are in cities that Rondo would be more likely to resign in. 

...problem is neither one has very good assets to put together a viable offer with.  But as Lowe points out, if they wait a year that might not matter.

Yup.

The places that want Rondo the most don't have much of anything to offer.

[hpantazo]

Why not trade him to LA for Randle, Nash, and their 2015 1st?

[fairweatherfan]

Why not trade him to LA for Randle, Nash, and their 2015 1st?

I think the Lakers' 2015 1st belongs to Phoenix (top 5 protected).

Plus Randle plays the same position as two of our young prospects.  Trades that require follow-up trades to make sense probably isn't what Danny's looking for, and I doubt he's that high on Randle since he passed on him in June.

[Fafnir]

Why not trade him to LA for Randle, Nash, and their 2015 1st?

Their 2015 draft pick is owed to Phoenix, top 5 protected. Then after that Phoenix pick is sent, the next pick they can trade (2017 if they send this years pick to Phoenix)

This Orlando owed pick is top 5 protected for 2017,2018 and unprotected in 2019. If the Lakers don't send Phoenix their pick this year Orlando will get 2 second round picks instead.

This means they can't trade their pick for Rondo, or really any future pick of any value.

[BigAlTheFuture]

Lakers own Houston's 2015 first I believe. With the terrible offseason they had, would not be surprised if it's borderline lottery.

[fantankerous]

Why not trade him to LA for Randle, Nash, and their 2015 1st?

Their 2015 draft pick is owed to Phoenix, top 5 protected. Then after that Phoenix pick is sent, the next pick they can trade (2017 if they send this years pick to Phoenix)

This Orlando owed pick is top 5 protected for 2017,2018 and unprotected in 2019. If the Lakers don't send Phoenix their pick this year Orlando will get 2 second round picks instead.

This means they can't trade their pick for Rondo, or really any future pick of any value.

The Lakers own Houston's 2015 pick (Lin trade) that they can move.

Edit: TP to BigAlTheFuture for beating me to it.

[Fafnir]

Lakers own Houston's 2015 first I believe. With the terrible offseason they had, would not be surprised if it's borderline lottery.

You think Parsons is that much better than Ariza? I certainly don't, not for next year certainly.

Houston's 2015 pick doesn't have all that much value.

Edit: Its also top 14 (lottery) protected in 2015, top 10 protected in 2016/2017, top 5 protected 2018/2019, top 3 protected in 2019, and finally unprotected in 2020.

[Kane3387]

Rondo in the triangle?

Yuck

[Donoghus]

Lowe really is one of the best in the biz right now. 

Love this stuff.

[Fafnir]

Lowe really is one of the best in the biz right now. 

Love this stuff.

He couldn't come up with a single Rondo trade scenario that made sense, Charlotte was the only one he could even half-heartedly play along with Bill for.

If Rondo moves it'll be at the deadline, and it'll likely be a complicated deal as there aren't any packages that make much sense unless a third team or injuries are involved.

[obnoxiousmime]

Knicks and Lakers have always been the most plausible destinations for Rondo, since they both desperately need a PG, have tons of money to throw around, and are in cities that Rondo would be more likely to resign in. 

...problem is neither one has very good assets to put together a viable offer with.  But as Lowe points out, if they wait a year that might not matter.

Yup.

The places that want Rondo the most don't have much of anything to offer.

The reason I don't think it will be the Lakers is because Kobe is old and they don't have any stars in their prime. New York has Melo, obviously. Also, as mentioned before it's really difficult just to make the playoffs in the West. I guess it's possible that Randle and their first rounder next year could be used as trade bait for a star, but who would that be?

Rondo is really calling the shots here. If he's willing to take the lesser max deal he's got lots of options, and he would avoid a situation where the team he's going to has to give up assets to get him. He doesn't want to be traded because he wants to pick his destination in free agency and be free from any control the Celtics might have over the situation.

The Celtics are really taking a risk if they keep him, but the problem is other teams know they can just wait until the offseason. The Celtics need to hope one team is willing to take a shot at acquiring him early.

[Donoghus]

Lowe really is one of the best in the biz right now. 

Love this stuff.

He couldn't come up with a single Rondo trade scenario that made sense, Charlotte was the only one he could even half-heartedly play along with Bill for.

If Rondo moves it'll be at the deadline, and it'll likely be a complicated deal as there aren't any packages that make much sense unless a third team or injuries are involved.

That would make sense.

We've been seeing crap Rondo trade proposals for months on here.  A lot of the stuff out there is cents on the dollar deals that really only the ardent Rondo-haters have supported.

There really hasn't been anything out there that makes you think Ainge would accept it.  Glad to see Lowe feels that way too.

[pearljammer10]

Rondo will be a Knick or Laker. The Darkhorse candidate being Charlotte. Which would benefit the Celtics most trade wise IF we absolutely have to trade Rondo.