CSNNE: C's still interested in Embiid, could trade up to get him

[bknova]

got to assume Embiid is out for his rookie season to heal and recover given this foot surgery, right? similar injuries has kept Lopez, Yao etc out for full seasons. I don't believe this heals quickly. Could be a really significant issue for him. Gives you pause about Embiid overall. I think he's the perfect building block if he can maintain good health . .. and I think he will but the thought of a Sam Bowie, Greg Oden injury prone big man are awful to contemplate. 

Its all about opportunity cost, especially in this draft.  Under this new information, he is not worth the risk if the opp cost is Wiggins or Parker, or maybe even Exum or Smart.  The question is, is he worth the risk if the opp cost is Vonleh or Gordon?  Personally to me he's worth the risk at 6, but not at 1 through 4. 

[gpap]

got to assume Embiid is out for his rookie season to heal and recover given this foot surgery, right? similar injuries has kept Lopez, Yao etc out for full seasons. I don't believe this heals quickly. Could be a really significant issue for him. Gives you pause about Embiid overall. I think he's the perfect building block if he can maintain good health . .. and I think he will but the thought of a Sam Bowie, Greg Oden injury prone big man are awful to contemplate. 

Its all about opportunity cost, especially in this draft.  Under this new information, he is not worth the risk if the opp cost is Wiggins or Parker, or maybe even Exum or Smart.  The question is, is he worth the risk if the opp cost is Vonleh or Gordon?  Personally to me he's worth the risk at 6, but not at 1 through 4.

I actually agree with this.

IF we end up keeping our pick and don't have to use it in a deal to get an all-star and/or proven veteran, I would take a gamble on Embiid.

At no 6, I don't think the risk is high enough where I am potentially missing out on another "can't miss prospect."

But like you said, if I had a top 3 pick, no way would I gamble on Embiid if I could either draft Wiggins or Parker OR use either one of those picks in a trade.

Though (at least to me) Embiid is eerily reminiscent of Greg Oden, at no 6, he's worth the risk.

[CeltsAcumen]

I heard a sports specialist say, I know hearsay, that while the injury is in the same category as Yao's injury its not even close to the same level of severity as Yao, there has greater advances in this area of surgery since Yao and oh yeah Embiid is 20 years old so he will recover.

If Embiid is at 4 and you can make a deal, Kevin Love be [dang]ed, and you draft Embiid.  You would be set for bigs for 5-10 years with Sully, KO and Embiid.

I would not draft him if either Wiggins or Parker is available, which seems unlikely.

[bknova]

I heard a sports specialist say, I know hearsay, that while the injury is in the same category as Yao's injury its not even close to the same level of severity as Yao, there has greater advances in this area of surgery since Yao and oh yeah Embiid is 20 years old so he will recover.

If Embiid is at 4 and you can make a deal, Kevin Love be [dang]ed, and you draft Embiid.  You would be set for bigs for 5-10 years with Sully, KO and Embiid.

I would not draft him if either Wiggins or Parker is available, which seems unlikely.

Just for full disclosure, Embiid and Stauskas are my binkys an the guys I wanted the C's to get from this draft all year.  I find the stress fracture mad troublesome and at this juncture I wouldn't pick him 1 through 3, and I do not believe that there is any way Orlando takes him at 4.

[footey]

I heard a sports specialist say, I know hearsay, that while the injury is in the same category as Yao's injury its not even close to the same level of severity as Yao, there has greater advances in this area of surgery since Yao and oh yeah Embiid is 20 years old so he will recover.

If Embiid is at 4 and you can make a deal, Kevin Love be [dang]ed, and you draft Embiid.  You would be set for bigs for 5-10 years with Sully, KO and Embiid.

I would not draft him if either Wiggins or Parker is available, which seems unlikely.

Just for full disclosure, Embiid and Stauskas are my binkys an the guys I wanted the C's to get from this draft all year.  I find the stress fracture mad troublesome and at this juncture I wouldn't pick him 1 through 3, and I do not believe that there is any way Orlando takes him at 4.

I see a trade brewing with ORL.  We have more interest in Embiid than they do.  They have more interest in Smart.  Virtually no risk that Smart is taken by Utah at 5, but some risk that Embiid could be taken at 5, either by Utah or in a trade. So we offer a future 1st round along with the 6th pick to move up and take Embiid at 4.  I doubt Orlando wants our 17th pick, they already have two first round picks.  Maybe give them an option to take one of 2-3 future first rounders, to increase the chance that it is a good pick for them.

[bknova]

I heard a sports specialist say, I know hearsay, that while the injury is in the same category as Yao's injury its not even close to the same level of severity as Yao, there has greater advances in this area of surgery since Yao and oh yeah Embiid is 20 years old so he will recover.

If Embiid is at 4 and you can make a deal, Kevin Love be [dang]ed, and you draft Embiid.  You would be set for bigs for 5-10 years with Sully, KO and Embiid.

I would not draft him if either Wiggins or Parker is available, which seems unlikely.

Just for full disclosure, Embiid and Stauskas are my binkys an the guys I wanted the C's to get from this draft all year.  I find the stress fracture mad troublesome and at this juncture I wouldn't pick him 1 through 3, and I do not believe that there is any way Orlando takes him at 4.

I see a trade brewing with ORL.  We have more interest in Embiid than they do.  They have more interest in Smart.  Virtually no risk that Smart is taken by Utah at 5, but some risk that Embiid could be taken at 5, either by Utah or in a trade. So we offer a future 1st round along with the 6th pick to move up and take Embiid at 4.  I doubt Orlando wants our 17th pick, they already have two first round picks.  Maybe give them an option to take one of 2-3 future first rounders, to increase the chance that it is a good pick for them.

I called this trade in the form of 6, 17, and future 1st three weeks ago on a different thread.  Although that was Embiid falling on wishful thinking rather than stress fracture in his foot.  In that thread I predicted that Orlando would want the 17 to package it with the 12 and get back into the top 10. 

[droopdog7]

I see a lot of people would want to trade the #6 and a future pick to get Embiid.  Not many people mentioning #6 and #17, which is probably the minimum it would take to get to say, #4.  How many people would do that trade?

[Fafnir]

I see a lot of people would want to trade the #6 and a future pick to get Embiid.  Not many people mentioning #6 and #17, which is probably the minimum it would take to get to say, #4.  How many people would do that trade?

Depends on what the doctor's say about his medical situation.

[KamikazeK]

I don't like the idea of trading UP for this guy at all! Especially not right now.

I would stay very far away from that proposition. That sounds like something that someone gets fired for if it doesn't work out.

[nacceltic]

OK, a few things not to forget...This kid has been playing ball for FOUR years and has now had three injuries in those four years. Two of those injuries including the back and foot, which is what normally breaks down in a big man after wear and tear from years of playing. I repeat, he's played for FOUR years.

I love his skill set as much as anyone, but this would be a gigantic risk by Ainge...There are visions of Brook Lopez, Bill Walton, Yao Ming, Rik Smits and Big Z dancing through my head.  He would likely be lost for most if not all this season, then have to work his way back into shape with some serious rehab, which is another risk to his health.

Let's also not forget that Embiid likely has to put on 15-20 lbs to take the punishment in the NBA on a nightly basis...Added weight means more pressure on that foot and back.  It's tough to turn down a shot at such a talented kid, but maybe the C's would be better off wheeling and dealing the pick if he falls, to someone that really wants him, while receiving picks & talent.

Another question that I haven't seen brought up...IF Minny is looking for more b/c they're not big believers in the Celtics offer thus far, then what happens if Embiid falls to the C's at 6? Does Minny jump on the deal to take a swing at Embiid?

All very interesting stuff...Still six days away!

[Geo123]

To me you don't move up to get him that's too risky especially for what it would cost you.  However, if he's there at 6 and you don't trade the pick then I think you role the dice and go for him...

[Smokeeye123]

To get a guy like Embiid you have to be lucky and take a chance. He has been compared to Hakeem/Duncan by people and if we can get a player like that we have to do it.

If you told me there was a 50% chance Embiid would turn into Hakeem Olajuwan and a 50% chance he would be the next Oden and never play a game I would still draft him/trade up from 6 to  get him at 4.  If you get lucky you have your franchise player for the next 15 years and the hope for multiple championships.

[footey]

To get a guy like Embiid you have to be lucky and take a chance. He has been compared to Hakeem/Duncan by people and if we can get a player like that we have to do it.

If you told me there was a 50% chance Embiid would turn into Hakeem Olajuwan and a 50% chance he would be the next Oden and never play a game I would still draft him/trade up from 6 to  get him at 4.  If you get lucky you have your franchise player for the next 15 years and the hope for multiple championships.

ditto

[knuckleballer]

I think Embiid to the Celtics is looking pretty likely.  Minnesota is asking for established players which the Celtics don't have.  That ship seems to be sailing.

Parker and Wiggins will go 1 and 2 in either order.  That leaves Philly, Orlando, and Utah.  All three of these teams have promising young centers.  None as promising as Embiid, but good enough that the risk isn't worth it to them.  The Lakers need a guy that can play now and the Kings have a center so it's not worth it to them to trade ahead of the Celtics for Embiid. 

Without getting Love or another stud, the Celtics are looking at a long term rebuild.  With the bounty of picks in the next few years, why not gamble on Embiid? 

Next, trade Rondo.  The Lakers are the ideal match (rivalry aside) as they are committed to winning now having committed so much money to Kobe.  They'll still have enough cap space to add to the team.

The Celtics use the 7th pick on Smart if he's available.  If not, take a player such as Gordon and draft a point guard using the 17th pick.  One of Payton, Napier, or Ennis will be available.

[crownontherocks]

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/06/20/report-joel-embiids-agent-pushing-for-no-1-pick-celtics-or-lakers/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

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