Ainge: Fans expectations of Jeff Green are not right

[winsomme]

Green is certainly inconsistent as a scorer. Independent of what should be expected of him, he simply is inconsistent. That really isn't debatable. The question is why? Why is he so inconsistent? Saying he's not a star player isn't really an answer and that's the question I would like Danny or Stevens to answer. After his big game a couple of weeks ago, Stevens said they need to be running more plays for him, getting him into a groove early and that he was a rhythm scorer. That sounds like a guy that you want to be a focus of your offense.

Also, post-PP/KG trade, one of the big talking points was how Green's offense would blossom now that he would be getting shots. Honestly, this assessment of Green coming out of the Cs front office is pretty surprising...

It's because he is a heat check player but is not a jacker really.  He's like JR Smith with a conscious.  Unless he's really feeling it, you won't see him force shots.

That's just his game.  It's not because he's afraid or he doesn't care.  That's nonsense criticisms.  Some players just play differently and that's a mental thing.  So much of the game is mental.

I will really be interested to see how he keep playing with Rondo now because he's going to get the ball thrown to him and often he will be open because of how well Rondo runs an offense... this may force him into more shots than he would otherwise take.  It'll be interesting to see how it goes.

Then that's a coaching issue. He doesn't have to force shots, the team needs to simply run more plays for him. There's really no reason for him to not be taking 17ish shots per game. And with that this whole question would work itself out.

[winsomme]

The bottom line is a 3rd option, is paid like a 3rd option. Everyone else wants him to be #1. 

All we need to do is keep Jeff Green as a 3rd or 4th option.  Rondo is a 2nd option. 

The answer to all of this is we need to find a #1 Alpha and another 3rd or 4th option and we are good to go.(Sully will be that other 3rd or 4th option I believe. Getting a 5th option that is all about defense would put us over the top..

On this team there is no reason for him to not be the #1 option just about every night... Certainly not any lower than #2. Just get him shots

[Snakehead]

Green is certainly inconsistent as a scorer. Independent of what should be expected of him, he simply is inconsistent. That really isn't debatable. The question is why? Why is he so inconsistent? Saying he's not a star player isn't really an answer and that's the question I would like Danny or Stevens to answer. After his big game a couple of weeks ago, Stevens said they need to be running more plays for him, getting him into a groove early and that he was a rhythm scorer. That sounds like a guy that you want to be a focus of your offense.

Also, post-PP/KG trade, one of the big talking points was how Green's offense would blossom now that he would be getting shots. Honestly, this assessment of Green coming out of the Cs front office is pretty surprising...

It's because he is a heat check player but is not a jacker really.  He's like JR Smith with a conscious.  Unless he's really feeling it, you won't see him force shots.

That's just his game.  It's not because he's afraid or he doesn't care.  That's nonsense criticisms.  Some players just play differently and that's a mental thing.  So much of the game is mental.

I will really be interested to see how he keep playing with Rondo now because he's going to get the ball thrown to him and often he will be open because of how well Rondo runs an offense... this may force him into more shots than he would otherwise take.  It'll be interesting to see how it goes.

Then that's a coaching issue. He doesn't have to force shots, the team needs to simply run more plays for him. There's really no reason for him to not be taking 17ish shots per game. And with that this whole question would work itself out.

That's just not how this works.  Not sure what else to say.  If you play ball you know how mental it is.  Some players see, and seize, openings that other players don't even see.

Larry Bird was a bad athlete but he had a mentality that let him excel, for example.  Jeff is just not going to be that guy for you...

Now with that said, like I said in a previous post, I will be interested to see this stretch with Rondo back if he isn't forced to take more shots, because he will be open and getting crisp passes from Rondo.

[mmmmm]

Ainge was on his weekly segment on the Toucher and Rich Show and had this to say...

“Other than the LeBrons, Kevin Durants and Paul Georges of the world you really don’t get consistently 25, 30+ points a night,” said Ainge. “Most players don’t ever score 36 points in a game, and Jeff’s had two in the past two weeks. I think that’s just how Jeff is. He’s a very good player and not a superstar player where we expect him to do that.”

“I think the expectations of him are not right."

“$9 million a year expectations I think that’s what Celtics fans have,” Rich chimed in.

“Well $9 million is half of a maximum contract. Jeff is giving us 16, 17 points a game on a very efficient overall year he’s having. I think that’s what people should expect.”

This is one of those quotes where Ainge just can't help himself. Like even if it is true that we as fans shouldn't expect an all star player out of Jeff Green, why would you say that publicly? I mean, what does that do Green's trade value? You certainly can't present him to other GMs as a player who is on the verge of being a building block if you criticize fans for expecting that of him...

Maybe Ainge isn't planning on trading Green or maybe he is shopping Green to playoff teams as someone who can be a complementary player that can be fitted around established stars.

Which is a role I think he'd really excel at and he'd certainly have tempered expectations elsewhere if he's asking to be third banana.

The situation in Boston right now isn't really conducive to people jumping on the Green bandwagon.

If it was Lebron/Rondo/Green, people would be singing a different tune right now, IMO.

Here's what I don't get. Why doesn't he shoot more? I mean, he's averaging like 13 shots a game. If he shot 4 or 5 more shots per game, he'd be a 20 PPG scorer, No? And if that were the case, would we be even having this conversation?

Very simple:  You can't shoot if you don't touch the ball.

How 'aggressive' of a shooter you are can be measured very simply:  By how often you shoot compared to how often you touch the ball.   

Green takes 13.4 FGA on just ~48 touches per game, or .28 shots-per-touch.  He deals out 1.6 assists as well for a total FGA-or-Assist-per-touch rate of .32.

For comparisons:

Lebron takes 16.7 FGA on ~75 touches per game, or ~.22 shots-per-touch.  He deals out a lot of assists, of course.  Adding in his 6.6 apg brings his FGA-or-Assist-per-touch rate to .31.

Paul George takes 17.4 FGA on ~70 touches per game, or ~.25 shots per touch.  He deals out 3.4 assists as well, for a total FGA-or-Assist-per-touch rate of .30.

Interesting.   So, when you break it down, Green is actually ever-so-slightly _more_ active per touch, in terms of FGA and assists, than either Lebron or George.

He just doesn't touch the ball anywhere near as much as those guys.

All three score at a similar rate.  Lebron scores about .34 points-per touch, Green .33, George .32.

Now, this is not to say by any stretch that they are identical players.  Because the value of an assist is higher, Lebron still creates significantly more total points (through shot or assist) than either Green or George - literally about 20% more!  He creates slighly over a point every two times he touches the ball!!

Green and George, though are very similar in their total point creation rates, producing a little less than a point for every two touches of the ball.

Given that Green can't exactly pass the ball to himself, there is no way for him to 'take more shots' other than to take more shots per touch.   But he's already taking more shots per touch than those two top players at his position, neither of whom gets criticized for not being 'aggressive' enough.  So I don't think his being 'more aggressive' in that way is really the answer.   We could hope for his assist-rate to go up, but that's partially dependent on the shot-making of others on the team.  And let's face it, he doesn't have the same surrounding cast of shooters that Lebron and George have.   And if he passed the ball more in lew of some of his current shots, well, that would just have folks screaming at him for being even _less_ "aggressive"!

It's very simple:  If we really want Green to be taking more shots, then we want the Celtics to get the ball in his hands more often.

But all indications (not just Danny's comments, but the basic nature of the offense we have been running) are that getting the ball into Green's hands more has NOT been a priority of this Celtic's team so far this year.   He has consistently gotten fewer touches and lower utilization than others on the team all season.

So what we (some fans) might want may not be what the Celtics want (for whatever reason).   Maybe that will change.   Maybe Steven's comments and this last game is an indication.   We'll just have to see.

[DesertDweller]

Nice "clic" you have going here!!!

Rondo and Bradley most likely out for tonight's King's game......Well there's one way to stop that pesky 2 game winning streak that no one thought of!!!

[winsomme]

Ainge was on his weekly segment on the Toucher and Rich Show and had this to say...

“Other than the LeBrons, Kevin Durants and Paul Georges of the world you really don’t get consistently 25, 30+ points a night,” said Ainge. “Most players don’t ever score 36 points in a game, and Jeff’s had two in the past two weeks. I think that’s just how Jeff is. He’s a very good player and not a superstar player where we expect him to do that.”

“I think the expectations of him are not right."

“$9 million a year expectations I think that’s what Celtics fans have,” Rich chimed in.

“Well $9 million is half of a maximum contract. Jeff is giving us 16, 17 points a game on a very efficient overall year he’s having. I think that’s what people should expect.”

This is one of those quotes where Ainge just can't help himself. Like even if it is true that we as fans shouldn't expect an all star player out of Jeff Green, why would you say that publicly? I mean, what does that do Green's trade value? You certainly can't present him to other GMs as a player who is on the verge of being a building block if you criticize fans for expecting that of him...

Maybe Ainge isn't planning on trading Green or maybe he is shopping Green to playoff teams as someone who can be a complementary player that can be fitted around established stars.

Which is a role I think he'd really excel at and he'd certainly have tempered expectations elsewhere if he's asking to be third banana.

The situation in Boston right now isn't really conducive to people jumping on the Green bandwagon.

If it was Lebron/Rondo/Green, people would be singing a different tune right now, IMO.

Here's what I don't get. Why doesn't he shoot more? I mean, he's averaging like 13 shots a game. If he shot 4 or 5 more shots per game, he'd be a 20 PPG scorer, No? And if that were the case, would we be even having this conversation?

Very simple:  You can't shoot if you don't touch the ball.

How 'aggressive' of a shooter you are can be measured very simply:  By how often you shoot compared to how often you touch the ball.   

Green takes 13.4 FGA on just ~48 touches per game, or .28 shots-per-touch.  He deals out 1.6 assists as well for a total FGA-or-Assist-per-touch rate of .32.

For comparisons:

Lebron takes 16.7 FGA on ~75 touches per game, or ~.22 shots-per-touch.  He deals out a lot of assists, of course.  Adding in his 6.6 apg brings his FGA-or-Assist-per-touch rate to .31.

Paul George takes 17.4 FGA on ~70 touches per game, or ~.25 shots per touch.  He deals out 3.4 assists as well, for a total FGA-or-Assist-per-touch rate of .30.

Interesting.   So, when you break it down, Green is actually ever-so-slightly _more_ active per touch, in terms of FGA and assists, than either Lebron or George.

He just doesn't touch the ball anywhere near as much as those guys.

All three score at a similar rate.  Lebron scores about .34 points-per touch, Green .33, George .32.

Now, this is not to say by any stretch that they are identical players.  Because the value of an assist is higher, Lebron still creates significantly more total points (through shot or assist) than either Green or George - literally about 20% more!  He creates slighly over a point every two times he touches the ball!!

Green and George, though are very similar in their total point creation rates, producing a little less than a point for every two touches of the ball.

Given that Green can't exactly pass the ball to himself, there is no way for him to 'take more shots' other than to take more shots per touch.   But he's already taking more shots per touch than those two top players at his position, neither of whom gets criticized for not being 'aggressive' enough.  So I don't think his being 'more aggressive' in that way is really the answer.   We could hope for his assist-rate to go up, but that's partially dependent on the shot-making of others on the team.  And let's face it, he doesn't have the same surrounding cast of shooters that Lebron and George have.   And if he passed the ball more in lew of some of his current shots, well, that would just have folks screaming at him for being even _less_ "aggressive"!

It's very simple:  If we really want Green to be taking more shots, then we want the Celtics to get the ball in his hands more often.

But all indications (not just Danny's comments, but the basic nature of the offense we have been running) are that getting the ball into Green's hands more has NOT been a priority of this Celtic's team so far this year.   He has consistently gotten fewer touches and lower utilization than others on the team all season.

So what we (some fans) might want may not be what the Celtics want (for whatever reason).   Maybe that will change.   Maybe Steven's comments and this last game is an indication.   We'll just have to see.

These are interesting numbers mmmmm, but the crux of the matter is "for whatever reason"...because the stats you note suggest that if he touched the ball more he would put up Paul George type numbers. And if that were the case wouldn't Green's value change?

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

There is aggressive shots and then there are the shots Green takes. Now I could be wrong (wouldn't be the first time) but how many times is Green taking 3s instead of going at the rim like Lebron? It's easier to slam it home than it is hitting the 3... Green's best games are when he starts out going inside, whether he makes the shot or not, then it opens it up for the rest of his game. You can see when Green is going to have a big quarter or game almost every time, he starts by going in and getting fouled or a dunk. Then the games where he just gets like 16pts or less, you just see him standing around the 3pt line and he rarely goes inside. He needs to muck it up more, it's like he gets a jolt of energy when he gets bumped up a bit early in the game.

[crimson_stallion]

Ainge has a misunderstanding of fans expectations.  I don't think anyone expects Green to score 25-30 every night, but there certainly should be an expectation of more consistency within his numbers.  He shouldn't have numbers that look like this:

39
16
8
14
18
8
36

That is too much of a yo-yo.  That is the issue.  Now granted his shot attempts are certainly more consistent, but his foul shot attempts are not (which is indicative of his lack of aggression a lot). 

I think this is pretty much what you get from NBA players outside of superstars (such as Lebron, Durant, etc).

Philly use to get similar numbers from Andre Iguodala - some nights he'll give you 25, others he'll give you 9. 

It's the same deal with Bradley and Sullinger.  22 one night, 7 the next.

That is what separates elite superstar players from good rotation players.  The superstar guys have that elite level of talent that allows them to dominate their matchups pretty much every night, no matter who is agaisnt them.  The quality starters are guys who are capable of having big nights when they are feeling hot or have certain matchups, but aren't dominant enough to be able to do it every night.

I think Ainge is perfectly on point here. 

I'm willing to be there are a lot of teams out there who'd be pretty content having Jeff Green (as he is) as their starting SF.  I think Miami would love having a lineup of Chalmers-Wade-Green-Lebron-Bosh if they had the opportunity. 

[SHAQATTACK]

There is aggressive shots and then there are the shots Green takes. Now I could be wrong (wouldn't be the first time) but how many times is Green taking 3s instead of going at the rim like Lebron? It's easier to slam it home than it is hitting the 3... Green's best games are when he starts out going inside, whether he makes the shot or not, then it opens it up for the rest of his game. You can see when Green is going to have a big quarter or game almost every time, he starts by going in and getting fouled or a dunk. Then the games where he just gets like 16pts or less, you just see him standing around the 3pt line and he rarely goes inside. He needs to muck it up more, it's like he gets a jolt of energy when he gets bumped up a bit early in the game.

Yup.......you just described his mental letdown he suffers on the court.   ......MJ ....if he was missing shots early, would go crazy in every other aspect of the game to offset bad shooting night.

All Stars get mad ,  not depressed  and do everything else to help their team.

Jeff.....just goes into shell and hides 

[BballTim]

There is aggressive shots and then there are the shots Green takes. Now I could be wrong (wouldn't be the first time) but how many times is Green taking 3s instead of going at the rim like Lebron? It's easier to slam it home than it is hitting the 3... Green's best games are when he starts out going inside, whether he makes the shot or not, then it opens it up for the rest of his game. You can see when Green is going to have a big quarter or game almost every time, he starts by going in and getting fouled or a dunk. Then the games where he just gets like 16pts or less, you just see him standing around the 3pt line and he rarely goes inside. He needs to muck it up more, it's like he gets a jolt of energy when he gets bumped up a bit early in the game.

  LeBron's probably one of the best ever at getting to the rim.

[crimson_stallion]

I think Ainge is full of crap.

To me at 9 million, you should be getting consistency.

The midlevel exception is what....5.3 mil?

And Green (who in my mind is a mid-level) player is getting 9 million, and fans expectations are too lofty?

If fans shouldn't have high expectations for Green, then why is he on the Celts?

Sorry, but I am not buying what Danny is trying to sell this time, unless you know, he gives me 9 million dollars a year.

My problem is that everybody who judges Greens value you do so based purely on his PPG.

People totally ignore for the fact that his individual defensive numbers have actually been very good.  It's that defensive production (that's not so easy to see on a stat sheet) combined with his offensive production that makes him very much a $9M guy.

[crimson_stallion]

Ainge was on his weekly segment on the Toucher and Rich Show and had this to say...

“Other than the LeBrons, Kevin Durants and Paul Georges of the world you really don’t get consistently 25, 30+ points a night,” said Ainge. “Most players don’t ever score 36 points in a game, and Jeff’s had two in the past two weeks. I think that’s just how Jeff is. He’s a very good player and not a superstar player where we expect him to do that.”

“I think the expectations of him are not right."

“$9 million a year expectations I think that’s what Celtics fans have,” Rich chimed in.

“Well $9 million is half of a maximum contract. Jeff is giving us 16, 17 points a game on a very efficient overall year he’s having. I think that’s what people should expect.”

This is one of those quotes where Ainge just can't help himself. Like even if it is true that we as fans shouldn't expect an all star player out of Jeff Green, why would you say that publicly? I mean, what does that do Green's trade value? You certainly can't present him to other GMs as a player who is on the verge of being a building block if you criticize fans for expecting that of him...

General managers of basketball teams make a LOT of money.  They are typically people who are pretty well qualified, and their entire job revolves largely around them understanding what's going on in the league, and how other guys out there are performing.

Do you really think that what DA says publically about Jeff Green will impact another GM's desire to trade for him?  Do you really think that all the other GM's out there thought Jeff Green was Lebron James until they read that comment?

On average, even the worst NBA GM out there probably knows about 10,000x more about basketball than pretty much anybody on this forum.  Whatever Ainge just said - I'm pretty sure they already know it.  That's why Danny hasn't (up until this statement) managed to pull off a trade sending Jeff Green to Indiana in return for Paul George.

[crimson_stallion]

Ainge was on his weekly segment on the Toucher and Rich Show and had this to say...

“Other than the LeBrons, Kevin Durants and Paul Georges of the world you really don’t get consistently 25, 30+ points a night,” said Ainge. “Most players don’t ever score 36 points in a game, and Jeff’s had two in the past two weeks. I think that’s just how Jeff is. He’s a very good player and not a superstar player where we expect him to do that.”

“I think the expectations of him are not right."

“$9 million a year expectations I think that’s what Celtics fans have,” Rich chimed in.

“Well $9 million is half of a maximum contract. Jeff is giving us 16, 17 points a game on a very efficient overall year he’s having. I think that’s what people should expect.”

This is one of those quotes where Ainge just can't help himself. Like even if it is true that we as fans shouldn't expect an all star player out of Jeff Green, why would you say that publicly? I mean, what does that do Green's trade value? You certainly can't present him to other GMs as a player who is on the verge of being a building block if you criticize fans for expecting that of him...

Maybe Ainge isn't planning on trading Green or maybe he is shopping Green to playoff teams as someone who can be a complementary player that can be fitted around established stars.

Which is a role I think he'd really excel at and he'd certainly have tempered expectations elsewhere if he's asking to be third banana.

The situation in Boston right now isn't really conducive to people jumping on the Green bandwagon.

If it was Lebron/Rondo/Green, people would be singing a different tune right now, IMO.

Here's what I don't get. Why doesn't he shoot more? I mean, he's averaging like 13 shots a game. If he shot 4 or 5 more shots per game, he'd be a 20 PPG scorer, No? And if that were the case, would we be even having this conversation?

But that would require him to exibit some occasionally questionable shot selection and occasioanally force up some shots, and the you'd all be complaining that he's a chucker - as per Avery Bradley.

People here are just so hypocritical.

Green is the theoretically perfect teammate  he is generally careful with his shot selection, doesn't force too many shots and lets the game come to him.  Everyone here complains that he doesn't take more shots.

Shots have to go somewhere, and he only other guy on the team who can really carry the offense is Bradley, so since Green is not shooting Bradley is taking those exra shots as well.  He's still hitting the shots at a similar efficiency to Green (around 45% FG and 38% 3PT) and yet people here all label Bradley a chucker.

So please explain - what are the guys supposed to do?  On this forum unless you score 20 points on 50% shooting every single night, you're going to get bagged out.

[crimson_stallion]

Ainge has a misunderstanding of fans expectations.  I don't think anyone expects Green to score 25-30 every night, but there certainly should be an expectation of more consistency within his numbers.  He shouldn't have numbers that look like this:

39
16
8
14
18
8
36

That is too much of a yo-yo.  That is the issue.  Now granted his shot attempts are certainly more consistent, but his foul shot attempts are not (which is indicative of his lack of aggression a lot). 

I disagree.  For a 15-16 ppg scorer, I would rather have numbers like this rather than consistently scoring between 12 and 19 points almost every night.

Not when you are a third or fourth option (which is what Green should be).  those guys need to consistently perform.  You just never know which Jeff Green is going to show up and that is a big problem.

I actually think the opposite is true.

You need your #1 and #2 option to be consistent.  You want to slot a guy in that role who can give you 18-30 points every single night.

Now, for your 3rd and 4th option, you can afford to have a guy who has more variance in his game.  That way, you can still win when he has off-nights, and when he's having a great game it can basically seal the deal for you.

I think Green is ideal in that 3rd / 4th role because of that, especially because his skillset means he's not very good scoring when the defense is keying in on him, but he can take a team by surprise if the focus is elsewhere.

Below are Green's shooting percentages in those games.  You can't be that inconsistent as a 3rd option.  You need to be pretty consistent in your efficiency.  Sure some nights you might get 20 shots and other nights you might get 6 shots, but you need to be the 45-55 range on hitting your shots as a 3rd option type player.

53.8
41.2
15.4
30.8
38.5
15.4
61.1

You just can't do that.

  Your expectation for game to game consistency in fg% for 3rd options is wildly unrealistic.

Chandler Parsons has a lot less volatility (he is still up and down a bit, but not nearly as much).  Same with Wesley Matthews, Manu Ginobli, Chris Bosh, Serge Ibaka, David West, etc.  You know the contenders.  That is one of the reasons they are contenders i.e. their 3rd options are pretty consistent players.  In fact, Jamal Crawford is about the only 3rd option on a contender that has dramatically inconsistent efficiency (of course even when he was the 1st option that was his game).  That is the problem with Jeff Green.  He isn't a #1 or #2 scorer, but he isn't consistent enough to effectively play that 3rd scorer role.

Manu Ginobilli is a former elite scorer who has simply aged - in his prime he would have likely been a #1 scorer on most teams, and even in San Antonio he arguably was at times.

Chris Bosh is a #1 scorer who was pushed back to being a #3 option being being put on a team with two other #1 scorers, both of whom are more profficient than him.   But Bosh was a #1 scorer and borderline superstar before he went to Miami.

Serge Ibaka and David West are pure bigs.  They don't spend much time out on the perimeter, and lots of their shots come in the paint, off put backs, etc.  The aveage FG% is higher in the NBA for PF's than it is for SF's for that exact reason.

Wesley Matthews is really the only guy on that list that you have a fair case for because he is a perimeter player and not a #1 player that got stuck in a #3 role...and if you only have one player as an example of #3 guys who are more consistent than Green, then Green is doing pretty good.

[indeedproceed]

Here's some statistical comparison:

StDev   Player
5.369509536   Batum
5.609612741   Ibaka
6.075118987   Parsons
7.227844889   Deng
7.235938363   Hayward
7.237800352   Thad Young
7.60783699   Jeff Green

Jeff Green is the most inconsistent.

  Small forwards who are closest to Green in ppg are Ariza, Josh Smith, PP, Nick Young, Evan Turner and Chandler Parsons. I'd guess there' more inconsistency in that group.

Here's a good look at small forwards around the league. Note: GmSc looks at all around per-game boxscore impact.



I spent wayy too much time compiling all that data to a spreadsheet, but the end-game is...Jeff Green is one of the more inconsistent starting SF's in basketball in terms of PPG, and when looking at his complete boxscore, he's even more erratic.

Jeff Green, inconsistent. IndeedProceed: Should've gone out tonight instead of wasting his time figuring this out.