Will we make the playoffs this year? Standings, stats and numbers (merged)

[kozlodoev]

I think we need to trade out any veteran that can bring back something in trade.  After that, I would love to see them make the playoffs, because it would mean our young guns have improved enough to lead us to the playoffs.

If we are going to keep our veterans (Bass, Lee, Humphries, Wallace, Crawford) and make a run at winning the pathetic Atlantic I will be upset.

We can not forsake our future for a chance to get blown out in the first round. I am the type of fan that watches every game and wants them to win every game. However keeping our trade pieces so that we can compete in the Atlantic really hurts our future.

Crawford is not a "veteran". He's a developing young player who just turned 25 and is still on his rookie deal. He's got exactly as much NBA experience as Avery Bradley, and no-one around here really considers Bradley a veteran.

I included him as a player we should move since he is a restricted free agent at the end of the year. If we can get something for him now before Rondo comes back and his stock takes a hit, I think we should.

Why is everyone fixated on getting "something" for a young, improving player who's under team control this summer? What's the point of shipping Crawford for a low first-rounder that is likely to end up an inferior player?

[BudweiserCeltic]

Yup...the East is that BAD. Right now we're a 4 seed in the playoffs.  So no lottery pick guys...kiss those dreams goodbye. Unless BK is bad these next few years (and we get a lotto pick) I see us running the mediocrity treadmill for awhile.

Fun fact Phoenix who is 9-8 and currently out of the playoff race in the West would be a THREE SEED in the East. Honestly I think its time we do away with this Eastern/Western Conf playoff thing and just go with the teams with the best records make the playoffs. It would be a lot more fun to watch New Orleans in the playoffs then a Bos/Atl series sans PP and JJ on their old teams...yea no thanks.

if you are not contending you had best be getting a lotto pick. We very well could be stuck in that no man's land called NBA hell. for years. 

Why do some people seem to think that neither getting a lotto pick nor being a contender almost guarantees that your team is stuck in between the two for years?

because it has happened to us already. Do we want that again?

No, it really hasn't. Most, if not all, of our struggles throughout the years haven't been because of poor drafting positions, but because of poor management decisions.

however you want to slice it and dice it. Look we were not contenders in that timespan and how many times were we in the lottery again? remind me.

The main point is that we've had very talented players die on us, we've had talented players traded for pennies on the dollar, and invested big money on alcoholics.

So this is not about how I want to slice it and dice it, it's about the details which you want to ignore or don't care for.

Our struggles as an organization has been management stupidity, not the lack of lottery talent or not.

[BballTim]

If the Celtics keep their current winning percentage they will finish with 32.8 wins.

Rondo's average win shares over his career are 6.27 a year. If Rondo plays half the year you can add 3 wins to that total, if he plays 3/4 of the year he would add around 4 wins to the total.

Using this rough estimate, the Celtics will win around 36 games this year (assuming they play at a similar level than in the first quarter). If 36 wins means winning the division I will be shocked, then again the Atlantic looks to be a historically bad division.

The numbers and the fact they have barely played the Western conference yet suggests they won't win 32 games this year.

Rondo's win shares take away Crawfords win shares, who's currently at 1.8 (just under 2).
It's basically impossible to predict how many wins Rondo will add because of his recovery schedule as to when he'll be 100%, then how much the team must adjust to his game, then how much it will effect us with Crawfords scoring out of the game...

The reality is with our stats, over an 80 game season, eventually our bad team is going to have a bad results orientated season, compared to the rest of the NBA- because we are consistently bad- compared to the rest of the NBA- in almost all areas except defense.

  We really aren't all that bad compared to the rest of the nba aside from few assists and many turnovers. Our offensive rebounding is average, our eFG% and TS% are around 20th, not that far from average. If we clean up our turnovers and slightly improve our offense we'd be solidly middle of the pack. Combine that with a good defense and it's not that hard to imagine winning more than 32 games.

[Evantime34]

I think we need to trade out any veteran that can bring back something in trade.  After that, I would love to see them make the playoffs, because it would mean our young guns have improved enough to lead us to the playoffs.

If we are going to keep our veterans (Bass, Lee, Humphries, Wallace, Crawford) and make a run at winning the pathetic Atlantic I will be upset.

We can not forsake our future for a chance to get blown out in the first round. I am the type of fan that watches every game and wants them to win every game. However keeping our trade pieces so that we can compete in the Atlantic really hurts our future.

Crawford is not a "veteran". He's a developing young player who just turned 25 and is still on his rookie deal. He's got exactly as much NBA experience as Avery Bradley, and no-one around here really considers Bradley a veteran.

I included him as a player we should move since he is a restricted free agent at the end of the year. If we can get something for him now before Rondo comes back and his stock takes a hit, I think we should.

Why is everyone fixated on getting "something" for a player who's under team control this summer? What's the point of shipping Crawford for a low first-rounder that is likely to end up an inferior player?

I can't speak for everyone, but I think Crawford's stock is as high as it is going to be right now. I want to get something for him before Rondo comes back, Crawford pouts because he has to come off the bench which leads him to taking his normal array of bad shots.

I am fine keeping him, but I think he is worth more to us in a trade right now, than he will be on the team after Rondo comes back. I'm not saying sell even if you are getting little in return, but that the return would make a deal worth it with how he is currently playing.

[manl_lui]

I think we need to trade out any veteran that can bring back something in trade.  After that, I would love to see them make the playoffs, because it would mean our young guns have improved enough to lead us to the playoffs.

If we are going to keep our veterans (Bass, Lee, Humphries, Wallace, Crawford) and make a run at winning the pathetic Atlantic I will be upset.

We can not forsake our future for a chance to get blown out in the first round. I am the type of fan that watches every game and wants them to win every game. However keeping our trade pieces so that we can compete in the Atlantic really hurts our future.

Crawford is not a "veteran". He's a developing young player who just turned 25 and is still on his rookie deal. He's got exactly as much NBA experience as Avery Bradley, and no-one around here really considers Bradley a veteran.

I included him as a player we should move since he is a restricted free agent at the end of the year. If we can get something for him now before Rondo comes back and his stock takes a hit, I think we should.

Why is everyone fixated on getting "something" for a player who's under team control this summer? What's the point of shipping Crawford for a low first-rounder that is likely to end up an inferior player?

I can't speak for everyone, but I think Crawford's stock is as high as it is going to be right now. I want to get something for him before Rondo comes back, Crawford pouts because he has to come off the bench which leads him to taking his normal array of bad shots.

I am fine keeping him, but I think he is worth more to us in a trade right now, than he will be on the team after Rondo comes back. I'm not saying sell even if you are getting little in return, but that the return would make a deal worth it with how he is currently playing.

I agree, I do not like the comparison people are making between Rondo and Craw...

I like Craw as a backup but I don't think he will produce the same way given the same minutes. This guys wants to be a starter. Theoretically, we can start him at SG with Rondo. Difference is Rondo makes his teammates better, and there is no argument there.

If you are to trade Crawford, you do it now, while his stocks are high.

[kozlodoev]

I can't speak for everyone, but I think Crawford's stock is as high as it is going to be right now. I want to get something for him before Rondo comes back, Crawford pouts because he has to come off the bench which leads him to taking his normal array of bad shots.

I am fine keeping him, but I think he is worth more to us in a trade right now, than he will be on the team after Rondo comes back. I'm not saying sell even if you are getting little in return, but that the return would make a deal worth it with how he is currently playing.

That's all critically based on the premise that Crawford will pout and take bad shots if he ends up on the bench. This is far from a given. As a matter of fact, he's had universally bad shooting over his career, and the splits show that he's been a slightly better shooter off the bench. So there's a chance that his performance reflects an overall improvement in maturity level.

Speaking about chance, people appear so fixated on "selling high" on Crawford that they don't realize that between taking a chance on a first-rounder that may come out of such a trade is much like taking a chance on Crawford's performance being sustainable. And it's not exactly clear which one has the better odds.

[Interceptor]

I am fine keeping him, but I think he is worth more to us in a trade right now, than he will be on the team after Rondo comes back. I'm not saying sell even if you are getting little in return, but that the return would make a deal worth it with how he is currently playing.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. JCraw is exactly the kind of player that this team has needed for a long while: a guy who can pass, handle the ball, and shoot without remorse. Perfect bench guy. Very unlikely we can replace this in a trade.

Ainge basically stole this guy from Washington; we gave up a guy who couldn't play, and a guy who couldn't walk. Very reluctant to let JCraw go unless it's for a Godfather deal or someone overpays at the end of the season.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

Yup...the East is that BAD. Right now we're a 4 seed in the playoffs.  So no lottery pick guys...kiss those dreams goodbye. Unless BK is bad these next few years (and we get a lotto pick) I see us running the mediocrity treadmill for awhile.

Fun fact Phoenix who is 9-8 and currently out of the playoff race in the West would be a THREE SEED in the East. Honestly I think its time we do away with this Eastern/Western Conf playoff thing and just go with the teams with the best records make the playoffs. It would be a lot more fun to watch New Orleans in the playoffs then a Bos/Atl series sans PP and JJ on their old teams...yea no thanks.

if you are not contending you had best be getting a lotto pick. We very well could be stuck in that no man's land called NBA hell. for years. 

Why do some people seem to think that neither getting a lotto pick nor being a contender almost guarantees that your team is stuck in between the two for years?

because it has happened to us already. Do we want that again?

  Sure. Last time it happened Danny acquired enough assets to build a title winning team.

not the 22 years prior. That was the point.

  We went 22 years without winning the title, not 22 years as in no-man's land.

soooooooooo, we were either a contender or a lotto team getting lotto picks the majority of those 22 years right? If not, then YES we were in no man's land.

[Evantime34]

I can't speak for everyone, but I think Crawford's stock is as high as it is going to be right now. I want to get something for him before Rondo comes back, Crawford pouts because he has to come off the bench which leads him to taking his normal array of bad shots.

I am fine keeping him, but I think he is worth more to us in a trade right now, than he will be on the team after Rondo comes back. I'm not saying sell even if you are getting little in return, but that the return would make a deal worth it with how he is currently playing.

That's all critically based on the premise that Crawford will pout and take bad shots if he ends up on the bench. This is far from a given. As a matter of fact, he's had universally bad shooting over his career, and the splits show that he's been a slightly better shooter off the bench. So there's a chance that his performance reflects an overall improvement in maturity level.

Speaking about chance, people appear so fixated on "selling high" on Crawford that they don't realize that between taking a chance on a first-rounder that may come out of such a trade is much like taking a chance on Crawford's performance being sustainable. And it's not exactly clear which one has the better odds.

I guess that is the difference in our opinions. I think the odds that Crawford's play will get worse instead of improving with Rondo back are high, while you think they are low.

I was thinking less of moving Crawford for a late first, and more of moving Crawford as part of a package to get a player with a higher ceiling (combining him with Green or Bass to bring back a little used bench player with high upside from a playoff team).

Bass and Crawford for Reggie Jackson and Perk or Bass and Crawford for CJ McCollum and/or Myers Leonard. Both these deals would be gambles, but I prefer them to the gamble the Crawford will maintain his play with Rondo back.

It is simply a difference in what we perceive the odds to be.

[PhoSita]

In light of much of this morning's discussion (with the Celtics, for the time being, sitting at the top of the pathetic Atlantic), I think that it's important to say this:


1. Making the playoffs and even winning the division because

a) the young talent (Sullinger, Bradley, Crawford, Olynyk, Faverani, Pressey) is ahead of schedule or just plain better than expected

or

b) Rondo returns and plays like a star every night, proving he can be the centerpiece moving forward

would be a good thing.

That would mean that this team is already in a good place without needing a high draft pick to bolster the talent level / pool of assets.



HOWEVER.


Making the playoffs because

a) the Atlantic Division is a disaster, and
b) the Eastern Conference as a whole is historically bad this year, and
c) the Celtics win ~35 games with a mediocre roster featuring 7-8 guys who would come off the bench for a contender

is a BAD thing.


There's nothing to celebrate about making the playoffs with a bad team, even if there are some pleasant surprises on the bad team (e.g. Jordan Crawford playing like an NBA player, Jared Sullinger looking like a long-term starter).


I should note, I don't think the Celtics will make the playoffs, for a variety of reasons.  Mostly because, as chambers pointed out in another thread, I think the Celtics have had a really easy schedule so far. 

I am, however, starting to worry that the Celtics will win 5-10 more games than they would in a normal year just because the East is so, so bad.

[SHAQATTACK]

I predict if Rondo plays half the season , the Celtics won't smell the lottery picks.

If Rondo returns early Jan with a healthy KO and  Sully .........no way the Celtics are a lottery team  as bad as the rest of the east are .

If Celtics were in the West .....they would be at the bottom with Utah and Suns

Rondo comes back this season......forget the tank talk

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

Yup...the East is that BAD. Right now we're a 4 seed in the playoffs.  So no lottery pick guys...kiss those dreams goodbye. Unless BK is bad these next few years (and we get a lotto pick) I see us running the mediocrity treadmill for awhile.

Fun fact Phoenix who is 9-8 and currently out of the playoff race in the West would be a THREE SEED in the East. Honestly I think its time we do away with this Eastern/Western Conf playoff thing and just go with the teams with the best records make the playoffs. It would be a lot more fun to watch New Orleans in the playoffs then a Bos/Atl series sans PP and JJ on their old teams...yea no thanks.

if you are not contending you had best be getting a lotto pick. We very well could be stuck in that no man's land called NBA hell. for years. 

Why do some people seem to think that neither getting a lotto pick nor being a contender almost guarantees that your team is stuck in between the two for years?

because it has happened to us already. Do we want that again?

No, it really hasn't. Most, if not all, of our struggles throughout the years haven't been because of poor drafting positions, but because of poor management decisions.

however you want to slice it and dice it. Look we were not contenders in that timespan and how many times were we in the lottery again? remind me.

The main point is that we've had very talented players die on us, we've had talented players traded for pennies on the dollar, and invested big money on alcoholics.

So this is not about how I want to slice it and dice it, it's about the details which you want to ignore or don't care for.

Our struggles as an organization has been management stupidity, not the lack of lottery talent or not.

I'm not ignoring anything.  Again I ask, how many times were we in the lottery in that span? how many times were we contenders? Were we the majority of that time either one or the other???  If not then we were in no man's land. Unless we were contending or in the lotto 12 of those 22 years.

All the details of how management messed up etc does not answer the question. Nor does the bad luck we had with Len Bias or Reggie Lewis.  Trying to build a team without a lotto pick is just as risky if not more so as with one is it not? Maybe we can develop the guys we draft and get lucky and haul in a free agent or trade for a big name. If that is the route we have to go I sure hope DA can pull it off again. I just think it will be really tough trying to bring in two big names instead of one and then getting the other through the lottery. Maybe we can get a lotto pick from one of the other teams picks we have. One can hope.

[Kane3387]

I predict if Rondo plays half the season , the Celtics won't smell the lottery picks.

If Rondo returns early Jan with a healthy KO and  Sully .........no way the Celtics are a lottery team  as bad as the rest of the east are .

If Celtics were in the West .....they would be at the bottom with Utah and Suns

Rondo comes back this season......forget the tank talk

I will say that a few if these guys last year did not play well with rondo bc they struggled to play off the ball. I could see lee, green and Crawford struggling to adjust but Bradley Wallace and bass could see improvement. Will be interesting to see how Stevens uses rondo vs how doc used him.

Rondo will have rust too. To expect triple double rondo right away is probably unrealistic.

[Interceptor]

In light of much of this morning's discussion (with the Celtics, for the time being, sitting at the top of the pathetic Atlantic), I think that it's important to say this:

... in a new thread?

There's nothing to celebrate about making the playoffs with a bad team, even if there are some pleasant surprises on the bad team (e.g. Jordan Crawford playing like an NBA player, Jared Sullinger looking like a long-term starter).

This is not true. Playoff experience is valuable for this roster full of young players. And there's some extra money involved for the organization, which is nice. Two home games at least.

[SHAQATTACK]

If Rondo returns soon , and plays at least 35 40 games.......this team won't be in the lottery,  without DA dumping more talent.

Compared to west teams  Celtics  are lottery bad

With Rondo...Celtics are good as any eastern team not,named Heat or Pacers.......

Unless DA trades Rondo or several other guys ......there will be no tank

It appears game by game Stevens is shaping these guys into a confident team, even without star talent.

It appears our future star talent won't arrive via lottery .........

With Rondo......this is at least a 30 win team , maybe 35