Will we make the playoffs this year? Standings, stats and numbers (merged)

[saltlover]

Yup...the East is that BAD. Right now we're a 4 seed in the playoffs.  So no lottery pick guys...kiss those dreams goodbye. Unless BK is bad these next few years (and we get a lotto pick) I see us running the mediocrity treadmill for awhile.

Fun fact Phoenix who is 9-8 and currently out of the playoff race in the West would be a THREE SEED in the East. Honestly I think its time we do away with this Eastern/Western Conf playoff thing and just go with the teams with the best records make the playoffs. It would be a lot more fun to watch New Orleans in the playoffs then a Bos/Atl series sans PP and JJ on their old teams...yea no thanks.

if you are not contending you had best be getting a lotto pick. We very well could be stuck in that no man's land called NBA hell. for years. 

Why do some people seem to think that neither getting a lotto pick nor being a contender almost guarantees that your team is stuck in between the two for years?

because it has happened to us already. Do we want that again?

  Sure. Last time it happened Danny acquired enough assets to build a title winning team.

not the 22 years prior. That was the point.

Pacers look like they're doing just fine.  Paul George was their top pick at #10 overall.  You don't need to win the lottery, or be in contention for the lottery, or be a top free agent destination to win.  You just need to draft well, make good trades, and get players that compliment each other.  Whether or not Danny can execute that is a different story, but he's got enough draft picks and a decent-enough foundation to have the chance.

[pearljammer10]

[GreenWarrior]

If we're going down that road there's no guarantee in trading for players, either.

Raef LaFrentz says hi.

cause if we go out & lose and accumulate high draft picks for yrs to come they're all going to pan out and none of our players will ever get injured again right?

[Fafnir]

The C's play in the east and the Atlantic division, given how bad its been our SoS is going to be very low all year.

[D.o.s.]

If we're going down that road there's no guarantee in trading for players, either.

Raef LaFrentz says hi.

cause if we go out & lose and accumulate high draft picks for yrs to come they're all going to pan out and none of our players will ever get injured again right?

 

Building a team through the draft is not inherently worse than building it through free agency, and  vice versa.

[GreenWarrior]

If we're going down that road there's no guarantee in trading for players, either.

Raef LaFrentz says hi.

cause if we go out & lose and accumulate high draft picks for yrs to come they're all going to pan out and none of our players will ever get injured again right?

 

Building a team through the draft is not inherently worse than building it through free agency, and  vice versa.

I don't disagree with that at all.

[chambers]

Strength of schedule wise our schedule might have been one of the easier ones in the NBA, but if you factor in the amount of games we have played in a short span into the equation I would make the argument that we have had one of the most difficult schedules in the NBA (Gorman has mentioned several times on the broadcast that he hasn't seen this difficult a start in all his years in Boston)

As far as being 23rd in turnover percentage, The C's were last in the league for about the first ten games of the year by a healthy margin, that they are only 23rd now means they are improving. With the return of Rondo I expect that number to shrink even more.

True, Rondo might lower this number- also depends how many games/minutes he actually plays.

Similarly, early in the year we were getting killed on the boards (pretty sure we were in the bottom 5 in the league early in the year), the recent improvement would indicate that we will continue to trend upwards and eventually be a decent rebounding team.

We were actually better and are going backwards, we were a top 15 team and are sinking. Although Sully is grabbing 26% of all available rebounds lol. What a monster.

Being in the bottom third of 3 point attempts isn't a bad thing, it just means that their style doesn't depend on the 3, there are lots of good teams that have used a non three point happy style and still won.

The problem I have with this is that:
*You are right, not shooting threes is fine.
*Our problem is we shoot short-mid range jump shots because we can't get inside.

The offense, is bad but that will improve with the return of Rondo.

you didn't mention that they are 9th in defensive rating.

I mentioned it as the lone bright spot. We are actually 7th I think.

To me, it is more important to compare our rankings to other teams in the Atlantic than other teams in the East. If we are to make the playoffs I think our best chance might be winning the historically bad Atlantic division.

[D.o.s.]

If we're going down that road there's no guarantee in trading for players, either.

Raef LaFrentz says hi.

cause if we go out & lose and accumulate high draft picks for yrs to come they're all going to pan out and none of our players will ever get injured again right?

 

Building a team through the draft is not inherently worse than building it through free agency, and  vice versa.

I don't disagree with that at all.

Hi five!

[Evantime34]

I think we need to trade out any veteran that can bring back something in trade.  After that, I would love to see them make the playoffs, because it would mean our young guns have improved enough to lead us to the playoffs.

If we are going to keep our veterans (Bass, Lee, Humphries, Wallace, Crawford) and make a run at winning the pathetic Atlantic I will be upset.

We can not forsake our future for a chance to get blown out in the first round. I am the type of fan that watches every game and wants them to win every game. However keeping our trade pieces so that we can compete in the Atlantic really hurts our future.

Crawford is not a "veteran". He's a developing young player who just turned 25 and is still on his rookie deal. He's got exactly as much NBA experience as Avery Bradley, and no-one around here really considers Bradley a veteran.

I included him as a player we should move since he is a restricted free agent at the end of the year. If we can get something for him now before Rondo comes back and his stock takes a hit, I think we should.

[BballTim]

Yup...the East is that BAD. Right now we're a 4 seed in the playoffs.  So no lottery pick guys...kiss those dreams goodbye. Unless BK is bad these next few years (and we get a lotto pick) I see us running the mediocrity treadmill for awhile.

Fun fact Phoenix who is 9-8 and currently out of the playoff race in the West would be a THREE SEED in the East. Honestly I think its time we do away with this Eastern/Western Conf playoff thing and just go with the teams with the best records make the playoffs. It would be a lot more fun to watch New Orleans in the playoffs then a Bos/Atl series sans PP and JJ on their old teams...yea no thanks.

if you are not contending you had best be getting a lotto pick. We very well could be stuck in that no man's land called NBA hell. for years. 

Why do some people seem to think that neither getting a lotto pick nor being a contender almost guarantees that your team is stuck in between the two for years?

because it has happened to us already. Do we want that again?

  Sure. Last time it happened Danny acquired enough assets to build a title winning team.

not the 22 years prior. That was the point.

  We went 22 years without winning the title, not 22 years as in no-man's land.

[Evantime34]

If the Celtics keep their current winning percentage they will finish with 32.8 wins.

Rondo's average win shares over his career are 6.27 a year. If Rondo plays half the year you can add 3 wins to that total, if he plays 3/4 of the year he would add around 4 wins to the total.

Using this rough estimate, the Celtics will win around 36 games this year (assuming they play at a similar level than in the first quarter). If 36 wins means winning the division I will be shocked, then again the Atlantic looks to be a historically bad division.

[chambers]

If the Celtics keep their current winning percentage they will finish with 32.8 wins.

Rondo's average win shares over his career are 6.27 a year. If Rondo plays half the year you can add 3 wins to that total, if he plays 3/4 of the year he would add around 4 wins to the total.

Using this rough estimate, the Celtics will win around 36 games this year (assuming they play at a similar level than in the first quarter). If 36 wins means winning the division I will be shocked, then again the Atlantic looks to be a historically bad division.

The numbers and the fact they have barely played the Western conference yet suggests they won't win 32 games this year.

Rondo's win shares take away Crawfords win shares, who's currently at 1.8 (just under 2).
It's basically impossible to predict how many wins Rondo will add because of his recovery schedule as to when he'll be 100%, then how much the team must adjust to his game, then how much it will effect us with Crawfords scoring out of the game...

The reality is with our stats, over an 80 game season, eventually our bad team is going to have a bad results orientated season, compared to the rest of the NBA- because we are consistently bad- compared to the rest of the NBA- in almost all areas except defense.

[Fafnir]

If the Celtics keep their current winning percentage they will finish with 32.8 wins.

Our ORTG/DRTG are consistent with a 30 win team as well.

So yeah if we win the division with that sort of record I'll be mad. Being first round fodder with such a record is pointless.

[Fafnir]

If the Celtics keep their current winning percentage they will finish with 32.8 wins.

Rondo's average win shares over his career are 6.27 a year. If Rondo plays half the year you can add 3 wins to that total, if he plays 3/4 of the year he would add around 4 wins to the total.

Using this rough estimate, the Celtics will win around 36 games this year (assuming they play at a similar level than in the first quarter). If 36 wins means winning the division I will be shocked, then again the Atlantic looks to be a historically bad division.

The numbers and the fact they have barely played the Western conference yet suggests they won't win 32 games this year.

I don't think you've really looked at the schedule.

We've played western conference teams 7 times already, 4 of those games on the road.

36.5% (30/82) of our games are against the western conference with 18.25% being road games (15/82).

Out of our first 20 games we've played:

7/20 = 35% of our games against the west
4/20 = 20% of our games have been on the road against the west.

Our schedule has been solidly representative of what we'll face all season long against the western conference. Heck we're 1-6 against the west with our only win against the hapless Jazz. Against the east we are 7-6

[Evantime34]

If the Celtics keep their current winning percentage they will finish with 32.8 wins.

Our ORTG/DRTG are consistent with a 30 win team as well.

So yeah if we win the division with that sort of record I'll be mad. Being first round fodder with such a record is pointless.

Even if we win 30-36 games I still think we could win a first round. Are Atlanta and Washington really better than us with a healthy Rondo? In general I agree that it would make me mad, which is why we need to trade anyone we can get something for after December 15th. If we still win 36 games with a rotation of Rondo, Bradley, Green, Sully, Olynyk, Crawford, Vitor, then Danny will have done everything he could to position us for the future and there is nothing more the C's can do short of sitting healthy players.