Will we make the playoffs this year? Standings, stats and numbers (merged)

[PhoSita]

So far we've learned that this Celtics team has a chance to beat teams like the Bucks, Jazz, Magic, Bobcats, and even the Hawks, on any given night.

I still think there are at least 10-12 teams in the league who are so much better that they'll beat the Cs the vast majority of the time.  The Celtics are still bad enough to drop plenty of games against teams they can beat -- they've already dropped two out of three against the lowly Bucks.

The Celtics will get better with Rondo's return, although perhaps not at first.  But there are other teams expecting to improve, too.  The Bucks, for example, are missing a number of key players.  The New York teams will get better, too.

Bottom line: the Celtics are one of the ten worst teams in the league.  I don't think Rondo's return will change that.  Because they're in the East, the Celtics could conceivably make the playoffs despite how bad they are.  Still, I don't expect it to happen, thankfully.

[djbilly33]

This is not true. Playoff experience is valuable for this roster full of young players. And there's some extra money involved for the organization, which is nice. Two home games at least.

Really?  On this team, that will be returning next year, Rondo, Bradley, Green, Bass, Olynyk, Sullinger if they arent traded, who would get valuable experience? Olynyk? I would rather miss the playoffs than have Kelly Olynk gain 4 playoff game experience.  Please this team needs to start losing and get a high draft pick. We gain nothing by making the playoffs!!

[PhoSita]

Why do we have multiple threads in this forum?



In the past, why haven't the moderators merged every single thread that is about tanking, or every single thread about Rondo, or Jeff Green?

Merging threads too often just results in opinions getting buried.

[PhoSita]

This is not true. Playoff experience is valuable for this roster full of young players. And there's some extra money involved for the organization, which is nice. Two home games at least.

Playoff experience is only useful if it's earned as a unit.

The Celtics roster is going to change a lot over the next few years, and the players who stick around will see their roles change.


As for playoff revenue, what do you think is worth more -- a superstar you can market for years to come, or two home playoff games?

[D.o.s.]

I agree with Pho--if the only reason we make the playoffs is owing to the winning allergy of the East, that's not super helpful.

OTOH, the 8th seed has had three first round upsets in the last ten years, so clearly, if we make it in, that's the place to be.

[djbilly33]

Agreed

This is not true. Playoff experience is valuable for this roster full of young players. And there's some extra money involved for the organization, which is nice. Two home games at least.

Playoff experience is only useful if it's earned as a unit.

The Celtics roster is going to change a lot over the next few years, and the players who stick around will see their roles change.


As for playoff revenue, what do you think is worth more -- a superstar you can market for years to come, or two home playoff games?

Agreed!!!

[Fafnir]

Why do we have multiple threads in this forum?



In the past, why haven't the moderators merged every single thread that is about tanking, or every single thread about Rondo, or Jeff Green?

Merging threads too often just results in opinions getting buried.

We already had a single thread covering the topic of your post. Bad News/Good News and various opinions about potentially being a playoff team given how awful the Atlantic Division has been. Your OP fell squarely into this thread and the discussion within it.

[Interceptor]

Really?  On this team, that will be returning next year, Rondo, Bradley, Green, Bass, Olynyk, Sullinger if they arent traded, who would get valuable experience?

Everyone on the active roster at the time.

We gain nothing by making the playoffs!!

Except experience and revenue.

Playoff experience is only useful if it's earned as a unit.

Citation needed.

As for playoff revenue, what do you think is worth more -- a superstar you can market for years to come, or two home playoff games?

This is a false choice.

[Celtics18]

If the Celtics keep their current winning percentage they will finish with 32.8 wins.

Rondo's average win shares over his career are 6.27 a year. If Rondo plays half the year you can add 3 wins to that total, if he plays 3/4 of the year he would add around 4 wins to the total.

Using this rough estimate, the Celtics will win around 36 games this year (assuming they play at a similar level than in the first quarter). If 36 wins means winning the division I will be shocked, then again the Atlantic looks to be a historically bad division.

The numbers and the fact they have barely played the Western conference yet suggests they won't win 32 games this year.

Rondo's win shares take away Crawfords win shares, who's currently at 1.8 (just under 2).
It's basically impossible to predict how many wins Rondo will add because of his recovery schedule as to when he'll be 100%, then how much the team must adjust to his game, then how much it will effect us with Crawfords scoring out of the game...

The reality is with our stats, over an 80 game season, eventually our bad team is going to have a bad results orientated season, compared to the rest of the NBA- because we are consistently bad- compared to the rest of the NBA- in almost all areas except defense.

They have played 7 out of 20 games against Western conference teams.  That's 35% of their games.

For the entire season, they play 30 out of 82 against the West.  That's 36.6% of total games played. 

We have played against Western conference teams at just about the same rate as we will for the whole season.  I think it's highly realistic that we could keep up a 33 win pace and perhaps raise it when our best player returns. 

Feel free to disagree.  But, the numbers you posted, don't show that it's a given that we will sink to the bottom of the league by season's end.  That's simply your biased interpretation of those numbers.

[PhoSita]

Really?  On this team, that will be returning next year, Rondo, Bradley, Green, Bass, Olynyk, Sullinger if they arent traded, who would get valuable experience?

Everyone on the active roster at the time.

We gain nothing by making the playoffs!!

Except experience and revenue.

Playoff experience is only useful if it's earned as a unit.

Citation needed.

As for playoff revenue, what do you think is worth more -- a superstar you can market for years to come, or two home playoff games?

This is a false choice.

Oh, now you're just being difficult.


Yes, it's a false choice in the sense that not making the playoffs and getting a lottery pick does not guarantee a bankable star for years to come, but the chances of getting one via a lottery pick is much greater.  That's well established.


No, I'm not going to give you a citation on playoff experience being better gained as a unit.  I think it's an assertion that stands up purely on the basis of sound reasoning.

The more minutes that a unit plays together, the better that unit becomes.  That has been well established elsewhere.  You're welcome to look it up yourself, I don't have time right now.  If I thought that the Celtics had a starting 5 that was going to stay together for the long term, I'd agree that there's value in getting playoff experience.  Since I don't think that's the situation, I don't agree.

[djbilly33]

Interceptor, if you are for the playoffs, please justify your reasoning.  They all have playoff experience except Kelly, who IMO isn't all that.

Why are we gaining experience for players who wont be on the roster in a year?

Would you rather have a top 5 draft pick with a potential of being a superstar or have this team next year with a middle of the pack draft pick?

Boston isn't a free agent's paradise.  The best way for us to rebuild is through the draft, not by making the playoffs to gain experience.

[Celtics18]

So far we've learned that this Celtics team has a chance to beat teams like the Bucks, Jazz, Magic, Bobcats, and even the Hawks, on any given night.

I still think there are at least 10-12 teams in the league who are so much better that they'll beat the Cs the vast majority of the time.  The Celtics are still bad enough to drop plenty of games against teams they can beat -- they've already dropped two out of three against the lowly Bucks.

The Celtics will get better with Rondo's return, although perhaps not at first.  But there are other teams expecting to improve, too.  The Bucks, for example, are missing a number of key players.  The New York teams will get better, too.

Bottom line: the Celtics are one of the ten worst teams in the league.  I don't think Rondo's return will change that.  Because they're in the East, the Celtics could conceivably make the playoffs despite how bad they are.  Still, I don't expect it to happen, thankfully.

Don't forget the Heat. 

[PhoSita]

Why do we have multiple threads in this forum?



In the past, why haven't the moderators merged every single thread that is about tanking, or every single thread about Rondo, or Jeff Green?

Merging threads too often just results in opinions getting buried.

We already had a single thread covering the topic of your post. Bad News/Good News and various opinions about potentially being a playoff team given how awful the Atlantic Division has been. Your OP fell squarely into this thread and the discussion within it.

I disagree, but I sent you a PM about it rather than continue the discussion in the thread.

[PhoSita]

So far we've learned that this Celtics team has a chance to beat teams like the Bucks, Jazz, Magic, Bobcats, and even the Hawks, on any given night.

I still think there are at least 10-12 teams in the league who are so much better that they'll beat the Cs the vast majority of the time.  The Celtics are still bad enough to drop plenty of games against teams they can beat -- they've already dropped two out of three against the lowly Bucks.

The Celtics will get better with Rondo's return, although perhaps not at first.  But there are other teams expecting to improve, too.  The Bucks, for example, are missing a number of key players.  The New York teams will get better, too.

Bottom line: the Celtics are one of the ten worst teams in the league.  I don't think Rondo's return will change that.  Because they're in the East, the Celtics could conceivably make the playoffs despite how bad they are.  Still, I don't expect it to happen, thankfully.

Don't forget the Heat.

You're right -- the Celtics have a chance to beat teams like the Heat if they can execute an incredible, low percentage last second play.

Meaning the Celtics win maybe 1 or 2 games out of the 10, probably.

[Celtics18]

Interceptor, if you are for the playoffs, please justify your reasoning.  They all have playoff experience except Kelly, who IMO isn't all that.

Why are we gaining experience for players who wont be on the roster in a year?

Would you rather have a top 5 draft pick with a potential of being a superstar or have this team next year with a middle of the pack draft pick?

Boston isn't a free agent's paradise.  The best way for us to rebuild is through the draft, not by making the playoffs to gain experience.

How do you know who will be on the roster in a year?  Despite all the talk about trading away most of our roster, I expect a large majority of this year's Celtics to remain Celtics next year.