Per 36 career numbers game

[PhoSita]

Let's put it this way:

Hoping Jeff Green, as a full time starter at the 3, can be something like a Luol Deng quality player = pretty reasonable.

Hoping Jeff Green, as a full time starter at the 3, can be pre-2012 Danny Granger = homer / super optimistic / crazy.

[Celtics18]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

Not once Rondo's back, he isn't. 

But, I agree, I don't see him shooting 44% from three for an entire season.  I'll gladly take 37%.

Green will still be the most dangerous scorer on the team once Rondo is back.

Sure, but Rondo will be our most dangerous offensive player.  As such, he'll be the primary focus of the opponent's defense. 

[PhoSita]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

Not once Rondo's back, he isn't. 

But, I agree, I don't see him shooting 44% from three for an entire season.  I'll gladly take 37%.

Green will still be the most dangerous scorer on the team once Rondo is back.

Sure, but Rondo will be our most dangerous offensive player.  As such, he'll be the primary focus of the opponent's defense.

I think it's semantics.  The best bet for our opponents will be to shut down Rondo's top target(s) and force Rondo to become a scorer.

In this case I think Rondo's targets will be Jeff Green first and foremost, and then a revolving door of Olynyk, Sullinger, Lee, Bass, Wallace, and perhaps Bradley.

[Celtics18]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

Not once Rondo's back, he isn't. 

But, I agree, I don't see him shooting 44% from three for an entire season.  I'll gladly take 37%.

Green will still be the most dangerous scorer on the team once Rondo is back.

Sure, but Rondo will be our most dangerous offensive player.  As such, he'll be the primary focus of the opponent's defense.

I think it's semantics.  The best bet for our opponents will be to shut down Rondo's top target(s) and force Rondo to become a scorer.

In this case I think Rondo's targets will be Jeff Green first and foremost, and then a revolving door of Olynyk, Sullinger, Lee, Bass, Wallace, and perhaps Bradley.

Easier said than done.  You have to try to pack the paint against Rondo and eliminate his passing angles.  When Rondo's on his game, that is not an easy task. 

Rondo will be able to create tons of easy scoring opportunities for Jeff Green, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Brandon Bass, Kelly Olynyk, Courtney Lee,  Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries and company. 

[Moranis]

And let's just say he does get those numbers (which I actually think are reasonable).  They aren't that good.  That is 4th best player on a title team type numbers.  That isn't #1 option numbers.

I don't think anyone should expect him to be a number 1 option in the mold of Paul Pierce from his primer or LeBron James. That's just as silly as calling him an average player.

Alright, I'll play. I challenge you to find me a recent championship team where the third-best scorer averaged 17 ppg or more in the regular season. Without doing any checks, I doubt you'll find more than a handful.

but he wouldn't have those numbers as a 3rd best player on a title team because he is the 3rd option not the 1st or 2nd option.  If he is getting those numbers as the 1st or 2nd option that equates to at best a 4th option on a title team.

I mean you don't have to look much further than our last title team to see that.  Ray Allen went from 26.4 ppg as the 1st option in Seattle to 17.4 ppg as the 3rd option in Boston.  Another example, Chris Bosh went from 24/11 as a 1st option in Toronto to 18/8 (or so) as a 3rd option in Miami.  Both of those guys for the record scored more than 17 points a game as a 3rd option on a title team (the first title for Bosh, last year he dropped to 16.6).

Lamar Odom dropped like 4 points a game when moving from the 2nd option to 3rd or 4th option in LA and was 6 points off his career high in Miami when he was basically the 1st option (wade was a rookie and eddie jones was older).  I mean Odom in his one year in Miami went for 17.1/9.7/4.1 with a steal and a block and solid defense overall (green is a better defender).  That is genuinely better than anything we can expect from Jeff Green and yet on the title teams Odom was 3rd or 4th at best in the pecking order.

That is what Jeff Green is.  At best the 4th or 5th best player on a title team.   

[kozlodoev]

but he wouldn't have those numbers as a 3rd best player on a title team because he is the 3rd option not the 1st or 2nd option.  If he is getting those numbers as the 1st or 2nd option that equates to at best a 4th option on a title team.

I mean you don't have to look much further than our last title team to see that.  Ray Allen went from 26.4 ppg as the 1st option in Seattle to 17.4 ppg as the 3rd option in Boston.  Another example, Chris Bosh went from 24/11 as a 1st option in Toronto to 18/8 (or so) as a 3rd option in Miami.  Both of those guys for the record scored more than 17 points a game as a 3rd option on a title team (the first title for Bosh, last year he dropped to 16.6).

Lamar Odom dropped like 4 points a game when moving from the 2nd option to 3rd or 4th option in LA and was 6 points off his career high in Miami when he was basically the 1st option (wade was a rookie and eddie jones was older).  I mean Odom in his one year in Miami went for 17.1/9.7/4.1 with a steal and a block and solid defense overall (green is a better defender).  That is genuinely better than anything we can expect from Jeff Green and yet on the title teams Odom was 3rd or 4th at best in the pecking order.

That is what Jeff Green is.  At best the 4th or 5th best player on a title team.   

If you look carefully, outside of the Heat, the second option is typically not very different from the third option, and when it is, the third option is much further from 17 ppg than the second. Also, Lamar Odom player 37+ minutes in both years when he averaged 17 ppg. Not to mention that he was 5+ years removed, 30+ years old when he played on those LAL championship teams, so I don't see this as being too relevant to the discussion.

I'm curious how you have decided that Green will average 17 pp36 as the first option. He posted ~18.4 pp36 as a second gun to Paul Pierce (20.2 pp36) over the last three months of the season. If he sustains this, it is better or at least as good as most second guns on recent championship teams (Wade excluded).

Again, he won't be a transcendent number one scorer, but calling him "average" and "fifth player on a good team" is a mischaracterization of what he is.

[Moranis]

If you look carefully, outside of the Heat, the second option is typically not very different from the third option, and when it is, the third option is much further from 17 ppg than the second. Also, Lamar Odom player 37+ minutes in both years when he averaged 17 ppg. Not to mention that he was 5+ years removed, 30+ years old when he played on those LAL championship teams, so I don't see this as being too relevant to the discussion.

I'm curious how you have decided that Green will average 17 pp36 as the first option. He posted ~18.4 pp36 as a second gun to Paul Pierce (20.2 pp36) over the last three months of the season. If he sustains this, it is better or at least as good as most second guns on recent championship teams (Wade excluded).

Again, he won't be a transcendent number one scorer, but calling him "average" and "fifth player on a good team" is a mischaracterization of what he is.

Actually most title teams have a 1 and 2 and then there is a pretty big drop to the 3.  Dallas was an exception and the most recent Lakers teams were to an extent, than Pau was basically the same level scorer as a #1 in Memphis as he was as the #2 in LA.  But historically you have Wade/Shaq, Shaq/Kobe, MJ/Pip, even the Spurs Parker was closer to Duncan than he was to Manu in the last title team (and Robinson and Duncan were clear 1/2 for their first title), and even Rip & Billups were closer than Sheed was to Billups during the season. 

Title teams are generally 1/2 with a solid 3rd contributor.  When you start looking around the league at who that 3rd contributor has been, Jeff Green doesn't measure up.  He isn't Bosh, he isn't Allen, he isn't even Odom or Bynum, he isn't Ginobli, he isn't Chandler, he isn't even Sheed.  He might be a Toine in Miami or a Rick Fox in LA, but both of those guys have had far better peaks than Jeff Green.

Jeff Green was basically the 2nd option in Oklahoma City (for the first two seasons and the third option his last two seasons) playing 37 minutes a game and couldn't even crack 17 ppg.  Now granted he was younger then, but he was also playing with a dominate scorer in Durant that could take some pressure off of him.  He was a 17 point scorer in 34 minutes the last two months, but he was also well above his career best from both down town and inside.  I would expect his shooting to normalize back more towards his career averages (especially with an increased focus on him), which would put him right around 17 a game with an extra minute or two.

[BballTim]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

And let's just say he does get those numbers (which I actually think are reasonable).  They aren't that good.  That is 4th best player on a title team type numbers.  That isn't #1 option numbers. 

  That's nonsense. How many title teams have had 4 players getting big minutes that all put up 17 pp36 or better?

[BballTim]

Pretty sure the mystery man is Lin.

Yep.  Player A is Jeremy Lin.

The purpose of this thread was to bring a bit of reality to C-Blog.  I hear all of this talk about how Green and Bradley are going to be stars and how awful Lin is.  Yet when you look at their numbers, the one player you would project most highly is in fact Lin.

Right, and as any exercise without context, this is pretty pointless. Lin put his numbers by being the lead guard on a couple of pretty horrible teams. Green did so playing out of position behind Durant and Westbrook.

And I don't think anyone should or will project Bradley to be as productive as the other two.

Houston had a better record than Boston did last year and I seem to recall Houston have James Harden.  The year before Lin was on a playoff bound Knicks team with a plethora of wing scorers. 

Thanks for proving my point about C-Bloggers lacking reality.

  Your post doesn't prove C-bloggers lack reality, it simply proves that you can't just compare some stats to see who's the better player. Case in point Lin, who's a pretty poor defender. And if you know much at all about Lin you'd know that, not only were Lin's numbers much better in 2012 than in 2013, but his numbers in 2012 were high because the team's leading scorer was out of the lineup for a while.

[BballTim]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

Not once Rondo's back, he isn't. 

But, I agree, I don't see him shooting 44% from three for an entire season.  I'll gladly take 37%.

Green will still be the most dangerous scorer on the team once Rondo is back.

Sure, but Rondo will be our most dangerous offensive player.  As such, he'll be the primary focus of the opponent's defense.

I think it's semantics.  The best bet for our opponents will be to shut down Rondo's top target(s) and force Rondo to become a scorer.

In this case I think Rondo's targets will be Jeff Green first and foremost, and then a revolving door of Olynyk, Sullinger, Lee, Bass, Wallace, and perhaps Bradley.

  Have you ever seen opponents shut down Rondo's targets before? It's not for lack of trying. Letting Rondo go wherever he wants to on the court (including to the rim) is a recipe for disaster.

[Moranis]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

And let's just say he does get those numbers (which I actually think are reasonable).  They aren't that good.  That is 4th best player on a title team type numbers.  That isn't #1 option numbers. 

  That's nonsense. How many title teams have had 4 players getting big minutes that all put up 17 pp36 or better?

That isn't what I said or implied.

[Fan from VT]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

And let's just say he does get those numbers (which I actually think are reasonable).  They aren't that good.  That is 4th best player on a title team type numbers.  That isn't #1 option numbers. 

  That's nonsense. How many title teams have had 4 players getting big minutes that all put up 17 pp36 or better?

That isn't what I said or implied.

I have no idea what the answer to this question is, but it seems to me that 17/5/2.7 are pretty lofty numbers for the 4th best player on any team. Definitely not 4th best scorer. Maybe there will be an argument in terms of a very good defensive player not getting to 17 ppg. But, let's go to BBall Reference... i will be right back!

[PhoSita]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

And let's just say he does get those numbers (which I actually think are reasonable).  They aren't that good.  That is 4th best player on a title team type numbers.  That isn't #1 option numbers. 

  That's nonsense. How many title teams have had 4 players getting big minutes that all put up 17 pp36 or better?

I don't understand why the discussion is being framed in this way.

Who said Jeff Green has to be "legit top 2 option on a contender" good in order to justify the support he gets from most people around here?

This idea that there's a significant contingent of CBers who think Jeff Green is going to be a legitimate number 1 option seems like a fabrication to me.  Apparently the point of this thread is for Moranis to congratulate himself for defeating a bunch of straw men.

[Fan from VT]

12-13, Ray Allen, Miami
WS48  PER  ppg  rpg  apg   fg/ft/3p;       p36 r36, a36
.166  14.7    10.9  2.7   1.7 449/886/419  15  3.8  2.4

11-12, Maro Chalmers / Udonis Haslem, Miami
WS48  PER   ppg  rpg  apg   fg/ft/3p;       p36  r36,  a36
.112  13.0    9.8   2.7   3.5  448/792/388  12.4  3.4  4.4
.106  10.9    6.0   7.3   0.7  423/814/---    8.7  10.6  1.0

[BballTim]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

And let's just say he does get those numbers (which I actually think are reasonable).  They aren't that good.  That is 4th best player on a title team type numbers.  That isn't #1 option numbers. 

  That's nonsense. How many title teams have had 4 players getting big minutes that all put up 17 pp36 or better?

That isn't what I said or implied.

  It looks like you said 17/5/3 are the 4th best player on a title team type of numbers.