Per 36 career numbers game

[Moranis]

I'd think the best way to make such a point is not by choosing as a comparison someone who plays a different position.

Rather, pick several other players who look very similar and play the same position, but who would be "undervalued" by CBers.

Like, you could show that Green's per-36 numbers last year were not too different from numbers posted in recent years by players like Matt Barnes, Martell Webster, Dorell Wright, DeMarre Carroll and Marvin Williams.

For example.

I chose Lin because there has been a lot of discussion about him on this board recently. 

How about Anthony Morrow

15.8 p, 1.6 a, 3.8 r, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, TS% of 57.0, DRTG 114

Obviously not as good as Green, but not so far off either.  He is also basically the same age with the same experience level.

or maybe Charlie Villanueva (a 3/4 combo though he leans more to the 4 than Green)

17.9 p, 1.5 a, 8.0 r, 0.9 s, 0.9 b, TS% of 52.3, DRTG 109

The problem is not who you pick to compare to, the problem is how you treat Green's production. It's all about context. Using per-36 stats, you can probably argue that the 08-09 version of Nate Robinson was a bigger star than Paul Pierce has ever been, for example.

Lin and Green have similar minutes played though.  Similar % of career starts, etc.  Green's best year, both in totals and efficiency, was his second year.  He has been worse than that, but essentially the same player for years.  Last year he was a bit more efficient, but also played the lowest minutes of his career (you know as mostly a backup).  This notion that he is all of a sudden going to be something he has never been is just silly.

[Moranis]

Pretty sure the mystery man is Lin.

Yep.  Player A is Jeremy Lin.

The purpose of this thread was to bring a bit of reality to C-Blog.  I hear all of this talk about how Green and Bradley are going to be stars and how awful Lin is.  Yet when you look at their numbers, the one player you would project most highly is in fact Lin.

Right, and as any exercise without context, this is pretty pointless. Lin put his numbers by being the lead guard on a couple of pretty horrible teams. Green did so playing out of position behind Durant and Westbrook.

And I don't think anyone should or will project Bradley to be as productive as the other two.

Houston had a better record than Boston did last year and I seem to recall Houston have James Harden.  The year before Lin was on a playoff bound Knicks team with a plethora of wing scorers. 

Thanks for proving my point about C-Bloggers lacking reality.

Lin's career per-36 numbers are chiefly driven by his New York performance, where he put big numbers in short minutes on a horrible team. So perhaps I misspoke, since he only spent one year there as opposed to a couple -- but that's still more than a quarter of his career games.

Jeff Green, on the other hand, spent 4.5 seasons in Oklahoma, 1 season out with surgery, and 1 season recovering from said surgery and coming off the bench behind Paul Pierce (for the most part).

So yeah, my point still stands.

Except the Knicks weren't a horrible team and his per 36 numbers last year, while a bit worse, aren't that much worse either.  I mean NY two years ago had a SIGNIFICANTLY better record than Boston last year.  Thus, it would seem that if you are discount Lin's time in NY, you need to discount Green's entire career since he has played on exactly 1 team with a better win percentage than the Knicks.

[Celtics18]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly). 

[PhoSita]

I'd think the best way to make such a point is not by choosing as a comparison someone who plays a different position.

Rather, pick several other players who look very similar and play the same position, but who would be "undervalued" by CBers.

Like, you could show that Green's per-36 numbers last year were not too different from numbers posted in recent years by players like Matt Barnes, Martell Webster, Dorell Wright, DeMarre Carroll and Marvin Williams.

For example.

I chose Lin because there has been a lot of discussion about him on this board recently. 

How about Anthony Morrow

15.8 p, 1.6 a, 3.8 r, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, TS% of 57.0, DRTG 114

Obviously not as good as Green, but not so far off either.  He is also basically the same age with the same experience level.

or maybe Charlie Villanueva (a 3/4 combo though he leans more to the 4 than Green)

17.9 p, 1.5 a, 8.0 r, 0.9 s, 0.9 b, TS% of 52.3, DRTG 109

The problem is not who you pick to compare to, the problem is how you treat Green's production. It's all about context. Using per-36 stats, you can probably argue that the 08-09 version of Nate Robinson was a bigger star than Paul Pierce has ever been, for example.

Using players like Charlie V and Anthony Morrow as examples just goes further to undermine Moranis's point.

Neither of those guys can play a lick of defense, and they are almost entirely jumpshooters.

Green has a more versatile offensive game that's less dependent on other players, and he has shown that he can be at the very least an average defender for his position.  He has the tools to be an excellent defender for his position.



Mystery Player:

Per-36

11.4 pts 5.1 reb 1.4 ast .7 stl, .487 / .442 / .733 shooting.

Looks like a solid starting shooting guard to me!


So I wonder how much we'd have to trade the Spurs to get Matt Bonner?

[kozlodoev]

This notion that he is all of a sudden going to be something he has never been is just silly.

Except it isn't -- I expect him to be exactly what he was the last two or three months of this season.

[PhoSita]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

[kozlodoev]

I mean NY two years ago had a SIGNIFICANTLY better record than Boston last year.

They did? The team ended up 36-30, which projects to a 44.7-36.3 over 82 games. That's three wins better than last year's Celtics. Marginally better, maybe. Significantly, not really.

I'm still not sure what the point is here: Lin posted 19.5 pp36 with the Knicks (mostly while Melo was out) and that's 1/4 of his career production.

Green spent a good part of his career playing fourth fiddle in OKC, and fourth fiddle in Boston -- and has about the same per 36 career numbers as Lin? To me that's more of a testament to how good he really is.

[Moranis]

I'd think the best way to make such a point is not by choosing as a comparison someone who plays a different position.

Rather, pick several other players who look very similar and play the same position, but who would be "undervalued" by CBers.

Like, you could show that Green's per-36 numbers last year were not too different from numbers posted in recent years by players like Matt Barnes, Martell Webster, Dorell Wright, DeMarre Carroll and Marvin Williams.

For example.

I chose Lin because there has been a lot of discussion about him on this board recently. 

How about Anthony Morrow

15.8 p, 1.6 a, 3.8 r, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, TS% of 57.0, DRTG 114

Obviously not as good as Green, but not so far off either.  He is also basically the same age with the same experience level.

or maybe Charlie Villanueva (a 3/4 combo though he leans more to the 4 than Green)

17.9 p, 1.5 a, 8.0 r, 0.9 s, 0.9 b, TS% of 52.3, DRTG 109

The problem is not who you pick to compare to, the problem is how you treat Green's production. It's all about context. Using per-36 stats, you can probably argue that the 08-09 version of Nate Robinson was a bigger star than Paul Pierce has ever been, for example.

Using players like Charlie V and Anthony Morrow as examples just goes further to undermine Moranis's point.

Neither of those guys can play a lick of defense, and they are almost entirely jumpshooters.

Green has a more versatile offensive game that's less dependent on other players, and he has shown that he can be at the very least an average defender for his position.  He has the tools to be an excellent defender for his position.



Mystery Player:

Per-36

11.4 pts 5.1 reb 1.4 ast .7 stl, .487 / .442 / .733 shooting.

Looks like a solid starting shooting guard to me!


So I wonder how much we'd have to trade the Spurs to get Matt Bonner?

Morrow and Charlie V are definitely poor defenders, but that is evident by their awful DRTG.  Morrow has however averaged 25 minutes a game for his career (Villanueva is slightly less than that), so it isn't like they are bit players playing 15 minutes a game like Bonner (whose career per-36 are better than the numbers he had last year for San An playing 13 minutes a game).

Villanueva's best season was 27 minutes, 16.2 p, 6.7 r, and 1.8 a.  Better than any season Jeff Green has had in his entire career. 

This notion that Jeff Green is going to be something he has never been is just silly.

[Moranis]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

And let's just say he does get those numbers (which I actually think are reasonable).  They aren't that good.  That is 4th best player on a title team type numbers.  That isn't #1 option numbers. 

Jeff Green is an average NBA player.  He isn't a star and never will be.  He isn't going to carry a team, he isn't going to lead a team to victory after victory.  He is a good player for a title team to have as he plays + defense and can hit an open shot, but this notion running rampant on this thread that he is a building block is just silly.  I mean Oklahoma City had so little faith in Green that they traded him, their starting center, AND a 1st round pick for the deeply flawed defensive center that is Perkins and the expiring contract of Nate Robinson.  That is all you need to know about Jeff Green.

[kozlodoev]

Villanueva's best season was 27 minutes, 16.2 p, 6.7 r, and 1.8 a.  Better than any season Jeff Green has had in his entire career.

You've seen the 2008 Milwaukee roster, right? Charlie Bell and Luc Mbah a Moute played 25 minutes per night, and Dan Gazduric and Francisco Elson were rotation players. There's a reason they won 34 games that year.

[PhoSita]

I'd think the best way to make such a point is not by choosing as a comparison someone who plays a different position.

Rather, pick several other players who look very similar and play the same position, but who would be "undervalued" by CBers.

Like, you could show that Green's per-36 numbers last year were not too different from numbers posted in recent years by players like Matt Barnes, Martell Webster, Dorell Wright, DeMarre Carroll and Marvin Williams.

For example.

I chose Lin because there has been a lot of discussion about him on this board recently. 

How about Anthony Morrow

15.8 p, 1.6 a, 3.8 r, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, TS% of 57.0, DRTG 114

Obviously not as good as Green, but not so far off either.  He is also basically the same age with the same experience level.

or maybe Charlie Villanueva (a 3/4 combo though he leans more to the 4 than Green)

17.9 p, 1.5 a, 8.0 r, 0.9 s, 0.9 b, TS% of 52.3, DRTG 109

The problem is not who you pick to compare to, the problem is how you treat Green's production. It's all about context. Using per-36 stats, you can probably argue that the 08-09 version of Nate Robinson was a bigger star than Paul Pierce has ever been, for example.

Using players like Charlie V and Anthony Morrow as examples just goes further to undermine Moranis's point.

Neither of those guys can play a lick of defense, and they are almost entirely jumpshooters.

Green has a more versatile offensive game that's less dependent on other players, and he has shown that he can be at the very least an average defender for his position.  He has the tools to be an excellent defender for his position.



Mystery Player:

Per-36

11.4 pts 5.1 reb 1.4 ast .7 stl, .487 / .442 / .733 shooting.

Looks like a solid starting shooting guard to me!


So I wonder how much we'd have to trade the Spurs to get Matt Bonner?

Morrow and Charlie V are definitely poor defenders, but that is evident by their awful DRTG.  Morrow has however averaged 25 minutes a game for his career (Villanueva is slightly less than that), so it isn't like they are bit players playing 15 minutes a game like Bonner (whose career per-36 are better than the numbers he had last year for San An playing 13 minutes a game).

Villanueva's best season was 27 minutes, 16.2 p, 6.7 r, and 1.8 a.  Better than any season Jeff Green has had in his entire career. 

This notion that Jeff Green is going to be something he has never been is just silly.

You're still going by traditional box score numbers.

Villanueva's "best season" also involved him giving away more ont he defensive side on the court than he gave his team on the offensive side of the court.

There's a reason Charlie V has been stuck to a bench the past few years.  He's not a very good player.  A good scorer, sure, but not a very good player.

Like Koz said, just because people expect Green to be a solid to above averager starter at the 3 doesn't mean they are "expecting something he's never done before."  I think his performance this past season proved that he can do that.  The question is how consistently he can do it.  I will happily concede that we don't have a clear answer to that yet.  But I think we're going to find out.

Now, for those who think Green will be an All-Star, or that he'll be the second coming of Paul Pierce, I agree with you.  That's silly. 

But can Green give you similar offensive production to Luol Deng with less rebounding and not quite the same level of defense?  Yes, I believe so.  Probably a bit better, in fact.

[Celtics18]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

Not once Rondo's back, he isn't. 

But, I agree, I don't see him shooting 44% from three for an entire season.  I'll gladly take 37%. 

[Moranis]

Villanueva's best season was 27 minutes, 16.2 p, 6.7 r, and 1.8 a.  Better than any season Jeff Green has had in his entire career.

You've seen the 2008 Milwaukee roster, right? Charlie Bell and Luc Mbah a Moute player 25 minutes per night, and Dan Gazduric and Francisco Elson were rotation players. There's a reason they won 34 games that year.

and jeff green's best year was his second year on a 23 win team.

[PhoSita]

I think the hope is that we can get something approaching the production that Jeff Green gave us after the all star break last season for a full season.

I'll gladly take 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.7 APG on .493 FG% and .439 from 3 for the 2013-2014 season (that was in 33.5 MPG.  If his minutes go up to 36 to 38 MPG, then I would expect his numbers to go up accordingly).

I think he could definitely approach those numbers, though I'm not optimistic about those shooting percentages -- especially from deep.

Green is going to be the primary focus of the opponent's defense every single night.

Not once Rondo's back, he isn't. 

But, I agree, I don't see him shooting 44% from three for an entire season.  I'll gladly take 37%.

Green will still be the most dangerous scorer on the team once Rondo is back.

[kozlodoev]

And let's just say he does get those numbers (which I actually think are reasonable).  They aren't that good.  That is 4th best player on a title team type numbers.  That isn't #1 option numbers.

I don't think anyone should expect him to be a number 1 option in the mold of Paul Pierce from his primer or LeBron James. That's just as silly as calling him an average player.

Alright, I'll play. I challenge you to find me a recent championship team where the third-best scorer averaged 17 ppg or more in the regular season. Without doing any checks, I doubt you'll find more than a handful.