IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)

[indeedproceed]

IP must have decided that focusing solely on H2H stats gives NY the best chance at a championship.

Seriously, though, good effort.  Just remember that H2H isn't everything, nor are individual matchups.  

Also, I have to tweak you with this:  is there any reason in particular that you went with the "Kevin Martin shoots around 40% when he plays Rush" stat, rather than the "Kevin Martin outscores Brandon Rush by 18.0 points per game when they play H2H one"?

See but that's why its hard. If it was CB Draft time, I'd get the per-36 stats, but since I don't have the time or inclination to do so, I'm just kind of winging it. But, since you asked, here is how I think about it:

Brandon Rush and Kevin Martin have played each other this season, but almost to a certainty (I didn't watch the game), they didn't actually guard each other for prolonged periods of time. So, I went back to Rush's days in Indy where he almost exclusively played the 2, and I looked at a few of those games where both guys played a fair amount of minutes (while looking at the boxscore to try and divine if they were ever on the floor at the same time), and took a shot at that slightly more educated guess. On top of that, I looked at the way both guys are performing this year, and I figured Kevin Martin is gonna shoot about 40% from the field for the series, and probably score around 20 ppg.

If you wanna argue the other way, I'm open to it.

 

[BostonArizona]

I'm going to assume Deron Williams is out for the year.

Only explanation why the Nets don't make the playoffs.

[indeedproceed]

I'm going to assume Deron Williams is out for the year.

Only explanation why the Nets don't make the playoffs.

fair point. If I had to do it again, I'd probably put Nets over Wizards. I'd talked myself into the bad fit with Young/Childress at teh 3, and Brook Lopez taking his sweet time getting into playing shape, along with Deron Williams' apathetic play maybe counting the nets out this year, but its a tough one.

The Wizards, Pacers, and Nets were all playoff teams.

[indeedproceed]

honestly i think this series would be a lot closer then you think.  Yes you have dwight, but noah and ibaka aren;t no slouches defensively, and wall martin dudley>>>lowry rush prince...i think the wizards have a more talented and impactful bench. i think it could be a 7 game series easily. outcome knicks because of homecourt.

i could also seing this series playing out like warriors dallas of a few years ago.

I think the Noah/Ibaka pairing was pretty awesome. Its why you're in the playoffs to be begin with, because during the regular season against a lot of teams Noah/Ibaka are gonna make life really difficult for people.

But look at the stat line when Noah plays Howard...its brutal, and he fouls a lot. ANd that affects the whole thing, because if Noah's fouling/always sticking to Howard, he's not helping. Ibaka's not helping, because he's got his own 20 ppg threat to guard, and if they're not focusing half their energy on help defense, they're not as effective as a unit.

Wall does just about own Lowry though, that surprised me.

[BostonArizona]

Thad Young is a bad fit as a starting 3, and he plays nearly all his minutes at the 4 in real life.

I'm not really understanding how this has become the biggest knock on my team.

It's nearly the exact same situation as Josh Smith. Smith starts and plays nearly all his minutes at the 4 even though it is generally agreed upon that the Hawks are better off moving Horford to the 4 and Smith to the 3, their more natural positions.

Thaddeus Young would most definitely play significantly more minutes at the 3 if he was on a different team. The 76ers are an exceedingly deep team at the 2-3 spot. Just because Thad CAN strech to the 4 because of his frame and ability to guard the position effectively doesn't mean he's an ineffective SF.

Isn't it generally true in the NBA that your position is determined by who you can guard on defense?

No question in my mind that Thad is quick enough to guard the 3 and strong enough to guard the 4.

I'm just not seeing why starting Young at the 3 is a "bad fit".

[indeedproceed]

Thad Young is a bad fit as a starting 3, and he plays nearly all his minutes at the 4 in real life.

I'm not really understanding how this has become the biggest knock on my team.

It's nearly the exact same situation as Josh Smith. Smith starts and plays nearly all his minutes at the 4 even though it is generally agreed upon that the Hawks are better off moving Horford to the 4 and Smith to the 3, their more natural positions.

Thaddeus Young would most definitely play significantly more minutes at the 3 if he was on a different team. The 76ers are an exceedingly deep team at the 2-3 spot. Just because Thad CAN strech to the 4 because of his frame and ability to guard the position effectively doesn't mean he's an ineffective SF.

Isn't it generally true in the NBA that your position is determined by who you can guard on defense?

No question in my mind that Thad is quick enough to guard the 3 and strong enough to guard the 4.

I'm just not seeing why starting Young at the 3 is a "bad fit".

Cuz I don't believe he can guard quicker 3's on the perimeter, I don't think he's got any ability to stretch the floor as a 3, and although Brook Lopez and Carlos Boozer are both good mid-range shooters, you're talking about 3 of your 5 starters whose range does not extend beyond 15 feet. 

Thad Young works as a 4 because he's strong enough and big enough to 'get by' defensively while also being faster and quicker than the 4's who are guarding him.

He loses that speed advantage against 3's, and, at the same time, fills a redundant role next to Boozer/Lopez.

Then you factor in that neither Boozer or Lopez are particularly good at playing defense against opposing 4's (Boozer) or 5's (Lopez), and the problems begin to mount up.

That all being said, I probably should've put you in the playoffs. Or the Pacers. Or the Wizards.

[Roy H.]

Then you factor in that neither Boozer or Lopez are particularly good at playing defense against opposing 4's (Boozer) or 5's (Lopez), and the problems begin to mount up.

Yeah, as much as I'm a Boozer fan, I do think that Lopez / Boozer would have a tough time defending.  Boozer is decent at defending centers, but pretty bad when defending power forwards.

That all being said, I probably should've put you in the playoffs. Or the Pacers. Or the Wizards.

The team you should have left out is the Bulls.  As much as I love Rose, he's going to have a hard time carrying a starting lineup that contains Lamar Odom (or Jason Thompson), Omar Casspi, and Javale McGee.  Basically, it's like saying "if the Kings traded Tyreke and Cousins for Rose, they'd be a playoff team".  I don't necessarily buy that.

[StartOrien]

In this head to head match up, I'd say Knicks handle this pretty easily in 5. Could see Martin and Wall getting hot enough to steal one.

[indeedproceed]

I am working on the rest of the matchups but I'm absolutely getting slammed here today. Sorry guyz.

[Roy H.]

I am working on the rest of the matchups but I'm absolutely getting slammed here today. Sorry guyz.

BOO!!!!  We demand instant gratification on this thing that requires you to work hard with little benefit to yourself, and asks for nothing from us!

[indeedproceed]

Matchup 2: Spurs (1, H) V Suns (8, A)
Tony ‘Hardcore Parkour’ Parker V Darren Collision
Manu Ginobli V JJ Reddick
Richard Jefferson V LeBron
Chris Bosh V Carl Landry
Tim Duncan V Byron Mullens
-Key Bench-
Roddy Beaubois                 Steve Blake
Gordon Hayward   Vs        Shane Battier
Chris Wilcox                       Glen Davis
Randy Foye                        Mareese Speights

Key Matchup: Richard Jefferson V LeBron
Since R-Jeff has been in San An, he and LeBron have faced off 4 times. LeBron’s been shooting 52% (higher than career averages), 5.7 boards per 36 (below career averages), and scoring 25 points per 36 (below career averages). Or, to put it more simply, he’s been playing a little more efficiently, but not as many shots attempted etc… If this patter holds true here, that’s just fine with these Spurs.

Other Starting Matchups: The Spurs win every one of them by a country mile.

Bench matchups: Same, with the addendum that Battier allows the Suns have a shot at shutting down the perimeter by allowing LeBron to play either Manu or Parker, if one of them is torching the Suns.

How I think it goes down: Every inclination says itd be a sweep, and I’m sticking with that due to Mullens being the starting center.

[jgod213]

Been lurking for a while, had to jump in here. No way a LeBron team gets swept when no one on the opposing team can stop him from doing whatever he pleases.  Jefferson gets zero help defense from those bigs.

SA definitely takes the series, LeBron takes 1 game by himself, maaaaybe two.

[indeedproceed]

Been lurking for a while, had to jump in here. No way a LeBron team gets swept when no one on the opposing team can stop him from doing whatever he pleases.  Jefferson gets zero help defense from those bigs.

SA definitely takes the series, LeBron takes 1 game by himself, maaaaybe two.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NBA_Finals

[indeedproceed]

MATCHUP 3

Heat (2, H) V Celtics (7, A)
Nash V Felton
Wade V S-Jax
Granger V Pierce
Favors V Garnett
Gortat V Varejao
-Bench-
Shaun Livingston V Jameer Nelson
Dahntay Jones V Delonte West
James Jones V Ron Artest
Udonis Haslem V Ty Thomas
Timofay Mozgov V Joel Pryzbilla

Key Matchup: Steve Nash V Raymond Felton
I anticipate Steve Nash doing well against Raymond Felton, but he won't torch him. Over their last 5 regular season matchups, Nash has been efficient, but not overpowering. He's shooting over 50% in those meetings, but only averaging 7.4 FGA's and 8.6 assists in those games. Not great, not bad, just good. Felton, meanwhile, is shooting 33% on just over 10 shots a game. Nash gets a big win here for consistency.

Key Matchup: Dwyane Wade V Stephen Jackson
Wade is shooting 46% career-wise against Jackson, and since Jackson's play has fallen off a cliff (since he was traded to Milwaukee), Wade has shot 51% against Captain Jack. Meanwhile, Jackson is shooting just 36% this year, and is just 38% lifetime against Wade. This is a landslide victory for Wade, defensively, offensively, everywhere.

Key Match-Up: Granger V Pierce
History tells us that Paul Pierce has a Danny Granger about figured out. Lifetime averages of 5 ppg higher, holding Granger to just 39% shooting while shooting 46% himself, gets to the line more, shoots better from distance, rebounds better, passes better. Pierce has historically had Granger's number. But, if we look at the last few games, it seems like that trend is shifting. Maybe not completely reversing course, but bringing them much closer together. Granger and Pierce the last 4 games or so have played pretty even in terms of scoring. Pierce is still a better rebounder, passer, and shooter from distance but in terms of pure output, its closer than it used to be. Still a win for Pierce and Edgar.

Other Key Starter Matchups: Derrick Favors might finish each game with 12 points and 8 boards in this series, but Kevin Garnett's help defense will be way more vital than any garbage buckets favors manages to put up against him, and his year I figure that Garnett still has enough in the tank to stop the young man from going off. Gortat and Varejao only have one game between them where they were both starters, and in that game Gortat kind of made sideshow look like...a sideshow.

Bench Matchups: I like how Ron Artest will be able to further bother Danny Granger and James Jones, I like how Ty Thomas matches up against Haslem and Favors, I like how Jameer Nelson gets a chance to prove he's way better than we've recently been led to believe (how is he not rated better than Felton??), but I don't think the depth is good enough on either side to make a difference either way.

How I think It Goes: Pierce and company come out hot and bothered in game 1 when everyone puts out news stories about how they're gonna get swept. As long as S-Jax is hitting shots, and KG's jumper is falling the Heat are in real trouble. Thing is, S-Jax isn't hitting shots very often, KG is shooting worse than he has in any other year he's been in Boston, and KG/Andy V are still a step slow with Andy's injury to combat Wade/Nash's dribble drive attack.

Heat In 6

[Roy H.]

Heat (2, H) V Celtics (7, A)
Nash V Felton
Wade V S-Jax
Granger V Pierce
Favors V Garnett
Gortat V Varejao
-Bench-
Shaun Livingston V Jameer Nelson
Dahntay Jones V Delonte West
James Jones V Ron Artest
Udonis Haslem V Ty Thomas
Timofay Mozgov V Joel Pryzbilla

Key Matchup: Steve Nash V Raymond Felton
I anticipate Steve Nash doing well against Raymond Felton, but he won't torch him. Over their last 5 regular season matchups, Nash has been efficient, but not overpowering. He's shooting over 50% in those meetings, but only averaging 7.4 FGA's and 8.6 assists in those games. Not great, not bad, just good. Felton, meanwhile, is shooting 33% on just over 10 shots a game. Nash gets a big win here for consistency.

Key Matchup: Dwyane Wade V Stephen Jackson
Wade is shooting 46% career-wise against Jackson, and since Jackson's play has fallen off a cliff (since he was traded to Milwaukee), Wade has shot 51% against Captain Jack. Meanwhile, Jackson is shooting just 36% this year, and is just 38% lifetime against Wade. This is a landslide victory for Wade, defensively, offensively, everywhere.

Key Match-Up: Granger V Pierce
History tells us that Paul Pierce has a Danny Granger about figured out. Lifetime averages of 5 ppg higher, holding Granger to just 39% shooting while shooting 46% himself, gets to the line more, shoots better from distance, rebounds better, passes better. Pierce has historically had Granger's number. But, if we look at the last few games, it seems like that trend is shifting. Maybe not completely reversing course, but bringing them much closer together. Granger and Pierce the last 4 games or so have played pretty even in terms of scoring. Pierce is still a better rebounder, passer, and shooter from distance but in terms of pure output, its closer than it used to be. Still a win for Pierce and Edgar.

Other Key Starter Matchups: Derrick Favors might finish each game with 12 points and 8 boards in this series, but Kevin Garnett's help defense will be way more vital than any garbage buckets favors manages to put up against him, and his year I figure that Garnett still has enough in the tank to stop the young man from going off. Gortat and Varejao only have one game between them where they were both starters, and in that game Gortat kind of made sideshow look like...a sideshow.

Bench Matchups: I like how Ron Artest will be able to further bother Danny Granger and James Jones, I like how Ty Thomas matches up against Haslem and Favors, I like how Jameer Nelson gets a chance to prove he's way better than we've recently been led to believe (how is he not rated better than Felton??), but I don't think the depth is good enough on either side to make a difference either way.

How I think It Goes: Pierce and company come out hot and bothered in game 1 when everyone puts out news stories about how they're gonna get swept. As long as S-Jax is hitting shots, and KG's jumper is falling the Heat are in real trouble. Thing is, S-Jax isn't hitting shots very often, KG is shooting worse than he has in any other year he's been in Boston, and KG/Andy V are still a step slow with Andy's injury to combat Wade/Nash's dribble drive attack.

Heat In 6