Matchup 1: Knicks (1, H) vs Wizards (8, A):
Lowry V Wall
Rush V Martin
Prince V Dudley
Millsap V Ibaka
Howard V Noah
-Bench-
Ridnour V Kemba Walker
Thompson V Kenyon Dooling
Brewer V Michael Beasley
Brockman V Markieff Morris
Birdman V Johan Petro
Key Match-Up: Howard V Noah
Dwight Howard goes through Joakim Noah like a hot knife through butter. The last time these two played, both guys as starters, both guys over 30 minutes of courtime, Howard shot 61% from the field, and ended up with 28 points and 15 rebounds. Noah is a terrific defender against centers who don't have 60 lbs of muscle on him, but when they start getting bigger he becomes much less ineffective. Ibaka won't be able to help much either, because Millsap will be such a danger.
Key Match-Up: Kyle Lowry V John Wall
Kyle Lowry is one of the toughest defenders at the point in the entire NBA, but you'd never know it when he's playing against John Wall. Wall has never once beaten Lowry when both guys were starters, but he has sure beaten up on Lowry personally. 22 points, 7 boards, 8 assists, 50% shooting from the field, Wall has been pretty darn effective against Lowry so far in his career. Dwight Howard will help to mitigate that for Lowry a little, but this is a big win for Washington.
Other Starting Matchups: Ibaka/Millsap plays out like you'd think it would; Millsap scoring 17 points at around 55%, Ibaka getting his 10 pts in 25 minutes, but also getting 3 fouls in the same time, rebounding is close. Kevin Martin shoots around 40% when he plays Rush, Tayshaun Prince is getting his typical ninja-esque 15 points, 6 boards, 3 assists against Dudley (and dominating him when they're both starters).
Benches: Beasley and Morris are both winners in terms of talent against their bench counterparts, but Brewer has been the better player (than Beasley) this season, and in lifetime matchups they've actually had quite a few. Brewer hasn't been lights out vs Beasley or anything but he's held SuperBeas to 37% shooting, which is not a good sign. Morris is obviously the better talent than Brockman, but Brockman's a down and dirty kind of player, who fouls hard and plays defense with high-energy and high-motor. I don't think Morris can be a difference makers here.
How I think it will play out: Howard dominates Noah, gets the big fella into foul trouble often. Ibaka is forced to cover the 5, because Petro can't be trusted there against Howard, but Ibaka doesn't fare much better, while Millsap just works Morris over. John Wall has a very good series, but it ultimately just isn't enough.
Knicks in 5 games.