Chris Brousard - "CP3 won't sign an extension with the c's"

[Moranis]

If you have the chance to land Chris Paul for Rondo(with other parts also moving) you have to do it. Here's why:


1. Simply put, Chris Paul is the better overall, all-around player. Both players are so close in all aspects of their game as to be indistinguishable from the other. But Paul's ability to shoot FTs and from long range make him the better player.

2. Having the better player with this group of vets gives this team a better chance to win this year. The C's problems this year will not be defensively. Their problems, especially with older legs and players taking back ends of back-to-backs off, will be offensively and Paul will help in that regard much more than Rondo being here would.

  You really have to factor in health here. If Paul regains his explosiveness and returns to his pre-injury level of play then he's definitely the better player. If he doesn't then his playing better than Rondo was in Nov/Dec is far from a given. You can argue that Rondo might not reach that level again, but if Paul's health stays where it is then Rondo's capable of being the better player.

I hear a lot of talk about Paul's health.  A lot of citing his '11 regular season stats and the decline of them over the past few years.  Did anybody see that LAL playoff series though?  I thought he looked perfectly healthy then and he hasn't experienced any new injuries or setbacks since then.  I think the injury concerns are being overstated here.  Sometimes veteran players coast in the regular season.  We've seen it ourselves with our own players in recent years.  Regular season poor performance doesn't always equate to health issues or skill decline.  Sometimes it's just saving themselves for the time when it really matters - the playoffs.

  The Hornets were a 7th seed. Do you really coast during the season when you're in danger of not making the playoffs? And I don't know that I'd take a few games vs LA as a sign that he's regained his 07-08 form.

I don't think he coasted at all, it is just with his type of injury it takes about a year to fully recover.  By the end of the year his knee was just healthier (March was his best month in the regular season as well - his April wasn't great but he only played a handful of games before the playoffs and had a couple of stinkers).

[BballTim]

TP Nick, dead on the money!

What worries me, though, and GreenFaith mentioned it, is CP3's knees condition. He clearly can become a "Brandon Roy 2.0", which would be a nightmare scenario for us if we were able to sign him long term. I hope Danny really gets a good look at Paul's medical condition if he ever has to pull the trigger on such a trade.

That's why you don't sign him long term until after you trade for him.  You take the 1 year of Paul, hope you win a title and with a year of your medical staff you figure out if you even want to sign him long term (maybe you just do a sign and trade and get something for him).

But see, that's the thing.

First off, I love Chris Paul as a player, and I think he'd fit in Boston. But looking at our injury history (KG's knee, Rondo's takedown by Wade, Perk's knee, Powe's injury etc) - do we still take a chance here?

I say no. Don't do it. Even if NOH changes their minds and do a straight-up trade for Rondo. I know this is extreme, but the way injuries have depleted this team over the years, I'd expect Chris to injure himself before we even got any value out of him.

And then we are left with no Rondo and no value for Chris. Ainge then would probably start rebuilding in earnest.

My thing is - let's just add some pieces and run with our current Big Four.

Just my take. Not trying to be negative, but looking at things based off of our track record here.

Injuries have taken SO MUCH from this team....it is for this reason that I'd have to pass here. I'll keep our number 2 or 3 PG in Rondo, who I expect to continue improvement.

Paul played in 80 games last year and was perfectly healthy all season long.  By the end of the season he was actually stronger and better because he knee finally went back to 100% (which is pretty common with his injury).

  Paul's numbers before the all-star break were better than his numbers after it. It's not like he got better as the year progressed. And while his numbers (16/10) were down from his best years (about 22/11) his clutch numbers were also much worse. A rough average of his 07-10 numbers would be (per48) 41/10 with about 15 fta. Last year he was 25/10 with about 9 fta. He was 11th, 5th and 9th in the league in clutch scoring, last year he was 62nd or so. Pre-injury, his clutch fg% was around .495, .400 on threes. Last year he as .390, .267 on threes. Again, hopefully he'll bounce back, but this is a lot of the reason CP3 finished 3rd team all-nba and was barely a blip in the MVP voting. People are talking about him being a franchise player, last year that really wasn't the case.

[BballTim]

If you have the chance to land Chris Paul for Rondo(with other parts also moving) you have to do it. Here's why:


1. Simply put, Chris Paul is the better overall, all-around player. Both players are so close in all aspects of their game as to be indistinguishable from the other. But Paul's ability to shoot FTs and from long range make him the better player.

2. Having the better player with this group of vets gives this team a better chance to win this year. The C's problems this year will not be defensively. Their problems, especially with older legs and players taking back ends of back-to-backs off, will be offensively and Paul will help in that regard much more than Rondo being here would.

  You really have to factor in health here. If Paul regains his explosiveness and returns to his pre-injury level of play then he's definitely the better player. If he doesn't then his playing better than Rondo was in Nov/Dec is far from a given. You can argue that Rondo might not reach that level again, but if Paul's health stays where it is then Rondo's capable of being the better player.

I hear a lot of talk about Paul's health.  A lot of citing his '11 regular season stats and the decline of them over the past few years.  Did anybody see that LAL playoff series though?  I thought he looked perfectly healthy then and he hasn't experienced any new injuries or setbacks since then.  I think the injury concerns are being overstated here.  Sometimes veteran players coast in the regular season.  We've seen it ourselves with our own players in recent years.  Regular season poor performance doesn't always equate to health issues or skill decline.  Sometimes it's just saving themselves for the time when it really matters - the playoffs.

  The Hornets were a 7th seed. Do you really coast during the season when you're in danger of not making the playoffs? And I don't know that I'd take a few games vs LA as a sign that he's regained his 07-08 form.

I don't think he coasted at all, it is just with his type of injury it takes about a year to fully recover.  By the end of the year his knee was just healthier (March was his best month in the regular season as well - his April wasn't great but he only played a handful of games before the playoffs and had a couple of stinkers).

  I don't think he coasted either, and I don't think that he's far enough along in his recovery that you'd expect that he won't recover. My concern is based on the number of articles I've seen on possible ongoing knee issues (almost all contain the phrase "bone on bone), comparisons to Roy, and articles from last year about how he was changing his game based on his limited mobility/explosiveness. I'm not saying he won't fully recover, and if he does he's still the best pg in the game. But there are clearly reasons to be concerned about his future.

[TheRev72]

The team that trades for CP3 now will be able to offer him an extra year and $20+ million more dollars than any other team (using Bird rights). That's why you trade for him now. Do you really think he's going to leave that kind of money sitting on the table? Especially when Boston will have the cap room for another high salary/max player?

And of course CP3 won't sign an extension. He wants a Bird rights max contract, not an extension.

[Moranis]

The team that trades for CP3 now will be able to offer him an extra year and $20+ million more dollars than any other team (using Bird rights). That's why you trade for him now. Do you really think he's going to leave that kind of money sitting on the table? Especially when Boston will have the cap room for another high salary/max player?

And of course CP3 won't sign an extension. He wants a Bird rights max contract, not an extension.

Boston will not have the cap room to offer another max player not with Pierce at 17 million, Paul at 20 million, and all the other cap holds and/or lower dollar players on the roster (including Bradley and Johnson).

[TheRev72]

The team that trades for CP3 now will be able to offer him an extra year and $20+ million more dollars than any other team (using Bird rights). That's why you trade for him now. Do you really think he's going to leave that kind of money sitting on the table? Especially when Boston will have the cap room for another high salary/max player?

And of course CP3 won't sign an extension. He wants a Bird rights max contract, not an extension.

Boston will not have the cap room to offer another max player not with Pierce at 17 million, Paul at 20 million, and all the other cap holds and/or lower dollar players on the roster (including Bradley and Johnson).

I'll defer to those with better new CBA expertise. But FWIW, I've read several places that, based on the timing of signing your own free agents and the small number of players on the Celtic's roster next year, that there is significant cap space looming for the Celtics. If someone has a mathematical breakdown of the C's cap situation after this year based on the new CBA rules, I'd love to see it.

Whatever that space, I have a hard time imagining any NBA player turning down $20+ million dollars. The team that trades for him now holds all the cards.

[BballTim]

The team that trades for CP3 now will be able to offer him an extra year and $20+ million more dollars than any other team (using Bird rights). That's why you trade for him now. Do you really think he's going to leave that kind of money sitting on the table? Especially when Boston will have the cap room for another high salary/max player?

And of course CP3 won't sign an extension. He wants a Bird rights max contract, not an extension.

  You're ready to give a point guard with possible knee issues who's been in the league for 6 years and has won 1 playoff series in his career $20+ million a year? Yikes.

[TheRev72]

The team that trades for CP3 now will be able to offer him an extra year and $20+ million more dollars than any other team (using Bird rights). That's why you trade for him now. Do you really think he's going to leave that kind of money sitting on the table? Especially when Boston will have the cap room for another high salary/max player?

And of course CP3 won't sign an extension. He wants a Bird rights max contract, not an extension.

  You're ready to give a point guard with possible knee issues who's been in the league for 6 years and has won 1 playoff series in his career $20+ million a year? Yikes.

Uh. Yes. As is every team in the entire league, apart from maybe the team that has Deron Williams.

[BballTim]

The team that trades for CP3 now will be able to offer him an extra year and $20+ million more dollars than any other team (using Bird rights). That's why you trade for him now. Do you really think he's going to leave that kind of money sitting on the table? Especially when Boston will have the cap room for another high salary/max player?

And of course CP3 won't sign an extension. He wants a Bird rights max contract, not an extension.

  You're ready to give a point guard with possible knee issues who's been in the league for 6 years and has won 1 playoff series in his career $20+ million a year? Yikes.

Uh. Yes. As is every team in the entire league, apart from maybe the team that has Deron Williams.

  I would be surprised if that were the case. I could see it if he returns to his 2008 level of play, otherwise that's a pretty foolish move.

[snively]

The team that trades for CP3 now will be able to offer him an extra year and $20+ million more dollars than any other team (using Bird rights). That's why you trade for him now. Do you really think he's going to leave that kind of money sitting on the table? Especially when Boston will have the cap room for another high salary/max player?

And of course CP3 won't sign an extension. He wants a Bird rights max contract, not an extension.

Boston will not have the cap room to offer another max player not with Pierce at 17 million, Paul at 20 million, and all the other cap holds and/or lower dollar players on the roster (including Bradley and Johnson).

Assuming the trade took Jeff Green and one of our 2012 picks or current young guys with Rondo, and we didn't sign anyone to a big multi-year deal in the meantime, we'd have ~$18 mil to offer a free agent after resigning Paul to the max.  Dwight Howard would have to turn down Orlando's bigger hometown offer to join us, but he'd have to do that anyway if he wants to leave Orlando and they won't trade him.

And don't forget the amnesty card.  Pierce could be swept clean off the books if he's not carrying his weight.

That's not to say I'm crazy about the idea. 

I think Rondo is pretty well-respected around the league: he's got a ring, two all-star games under his belt and a lot of exposure from 4 consecutive significant playoff runs.  He's certainly less of a draw than CP3 or Deron Williams, but he also costs a lot less, and it's not like he's chopped liver to begin with.

Rondo, Pierce, a quartet of cheap young players (Bradley, JJ, our two 2012 picks), in addition to the well-regarded Jeff Green and/or cheaply retained twilight versions of Ray and KG should be very attractive to a free agent looking for a more competitive environment.  We won't be in a rebuilding mode (in this scenario the Big 3 will all be on hand as veteran support) and we won't have any albatross contracts (Rondo's a steal, Pierce can be amnestied if he falls off, Ray and KG would be on smaller, short-term deals).  Not a bad set-up.

[Moranis]

The team that trades for CP3 now will be able to offer him an extra year and $20+ million more dollars than any other team (using Bird rights). That's why you trade for him now. Do you really think he's going to leave that kind of money sitting on the table? Especially when Boston will have the cap room for another high salary/max player?

And of course CP3 won't sign an extension. He wants a Bird rights max contract, not an extension.

Boston will not have the cap room to offer another max player not with Pierce at 17 million, Paul at 20 million, and all the other cap holds and/or lower dollar players on the roster (including Bradley and Johnson).

Assuming the trade took Jeff Green and one of our 2012 picks or current young guys with Rondo, and we didn't sign anyone to a big multi-year deal in the meantime, we'd have ~$18 mil to offer a free agent after resigning Paul to the max.  Dwight Howard would have to turn down Orlando's bigger hometown offer to join us, but he'd have to do that anyway if he wants to leave Orlando and they won't trade him.

And don't forget the amnesty card.  Pierce could be swept clean off the books if he's not carrying his weight.

That's not to say I'm crazy about the idea. 

I think Rondo is pretty well-respected around the league: he's got a ring, two all-star games under his belt and a lot of exposure from 4 consecutive significant playoff runs.  He's certainly less of a draw than CP3 or Deron Williams, but he also costs a lot less, and it's not like he's chopped liver to begin with.

Rondo, Pierce, a quartet of cheap young players (Bradley, JJ, our two 2012 picks), in addition to the well-regarded Jeff Green and/or cheaply retained twilight versions of Ray and KG should be very attractive to a free agent looking for a more competitive environment.  We won't be in a rebuilding mode (in this scenario the Big 3 will all be on hand as veteran support) and we won't have any albatross contracts (Rondo's a steal, Pierce can be amnestied if he falls off, Ray and KG would be on smaller, short-term deals).  Not a bad set-up.

Bradley and Johnson are going to be about 3 million, then you have the two picks next year, at least another 2 million, Pierce at just under 17 million, CP3 would be probably something like 18 million, then you have to have cap holds at minimums to get to a roster of 10 (those are about 500k each), so you are looking at a minimum salary at about 42 million.  That is not enough under the cap to get another max deal.  Now if Paul took less money then you would be closer.

[timpiker]

anyone else getting sick of seeing the "Paul wants to be traded to the Knicks" yet?

[Fafnir]

The team that trades for CP3 now will be able to offer him an extra year and $20+ million more dollars than any other team (using Bird rights). That's why you trade for him now. Do you really think he's going to leave that kind of money sitting on the table? Especially when Boston will have the cap room for another high salary/max player?

And of course CP3 won't sign an extension. He wants a Bird rights max contract, not an extension.

Boston will not have the cap room to offer another max player not with Pierce at 17 million, Paul at 20 million, and all the other cap holds and/or lower dollar players on the roster (including Bradley and Johnson).

Assuming the trade took Jeff Green and one of our 2012 picks or current young guys with Rondo, and we didn't sign anyone to a big multi-year deal in the meantime, we'd have ~$18 mil to offer a free agent after resigning Paul to the max.  Dwight Howard would have to turn down Orlando's bigger hometown offer to join us, but he'd have to do that anyway if he wants to leave Orlando and they won't trade him.

And don't forget the amnesty card.  Pierce could be swept clean off the books if he's not carrying his weight.

That's not to say I'm crazy about the idea. 

I think Rondo is pretty well-respected around the league: he's got a ring, two all-star games under his belt and a lot of exposure from 4 consecutive significant playoff runs.  He's certainly less of a draw than CP3 or Deron Williams, but he also costs a lot less, and it's not like he's chopped liver to begin with.

Rondo, Pierce, a quartet of cheap young players (Bradley, JJ, our two 2012 picks), in addition to the well-regarded Jeff Green and/or cheaply retained twilight versions of Ray and KG should be very attractive to a free agent looking for a more competitive environment.  We won't be in a rebuilding mode (in this scenario the Big 3 will all be on hand as veteran support) and we won't have any albatross contracts (Rondo's a steal, Pierce can be amnestied if he falls off, Ray and KG would be on smaller, short-term deals).  Not a bad set-up.

Bradley and Johnson are going to be about 3 million, then you have the two picks next year, at least another 2 million, Pierce at just under 17 million, CP3 would be probably something like 18 million, then you have to have cap holds at minimums to get to a roster of 10 (those are about 500k each), so you are looking at a minimum salary at about 42 million.  That is not enough under the cap to get another max deal.  Now if Paul took less money then you would be closer.

Pierce and CP3 would be approximately 34 million just in themselves. Then 10 roster holds will be 5 million total, so if they gut everything they'd have 39 million committed. That would give them roughly 19 million in cap space, so its doable but its extremely tight and an unlikely scenario in the end.

[Fafnir]

anyone else getting sick of seeing the "Paul wants to be traded to the Knicks" yet?

Not really, its okay for him to have a preferred destination. But given the Knicks lack of assets I don't think he's going there in a trade.

[LarBrd33]

anyone else getting sick of seeing the "Paul wants to be traded to the Knicks" yet?

Not really, its okay for him to have a preferred destination. But given the Knicks lack of assets I don't think he's going there in a trade.

If CP3 wants to go to the Knicks... he'll probably go to the KNicks.  They will have enough cap room to sign him next season.  If he wants to be a punk about it he can just hold a gun to the Hornets and say he'll be going to New York for nothing... better take BIllups + garbage while they can.

Unless some team is willing to take him for one year... he'll end up in New York if he wants New York (since I don't see a team trading for him without an extension).