Here's my thinking on the situation:
The players want to maintain the status quo. That makes sense, because the status quo -- the previous CBA -- was immensely favorable to them.
Well, we can save a lot of time here by just looking at the above statement. Sure, the players 'want' to preserve the status quo, but they have from the very beginning proven they don't think that's realistic. They've come down from 53% of BRI (which will encompass the alleged losses the owners have suffered) to 50% of BRI (which assuming static BRI from last season (which was one of the NBA's best ever)) means the owners go well above and beyond where their 'losses' (again, a pretty dubious term here, because the supposition again is that the players' salaries are the thing limiting the teams from being profitable).
On top of that they've conceded terms on things like sign and trades, MLE contracts, maximum years on a max contract, rookie scale earnings, etc..
Pretty much the ONLY thing I've seen that would at all favor players is that teams' can now offer a bigger raise through Bird Rights then they could before.
So if there is anything in there that reminds you of the players wanting to preserve the Status Quo, point it out to me, cuz I'm not seeing it.
The owners -- understandably, in my opinion -- want to make very significant changes to the status quo. They want to alter the BRI split and make comprehensive system changes so that things are more favorable for them, both in terms of player salary and in terms of teams having control over their own players. We can debate whether or not it is reasonable for them to want to make those changes -- and I, personally, think it is -- but what cannot really be debated is that the owners have from the beginning had almost all of the leverage in these negotiations. The fact that they can point to the poor state of the economy as justification for their desire to restrict player salary only bolsters their position.
Fact: Under the current CBA, the players get 57% of the BRI, and no more. They can only earn less.
Fact: BRI fluctuates with the economy.
Fact: Whether the economy is good, or bad, or whatever, does not hold any bearing over how much the players make, at least in terms of relevance to the CBA. If 57% of the BRI is less than the amount the owners were due to pay out in salary, then the owners got that money back from a portion of the players salaries they held in escrow.
So the whole 'but in this economy' argument is pretty much moot to my mind. On top of that, part of the proposed (and endorsed by players) new CBA would hold 10% of players' salaries (as opposed to 3%) in escrow to account for the possibility that salary could go over the 50% of BRI, which the players have also caved on.
Nevertheless, the players continue to insist on terms that would constitute a "win" for them even though the circumstances dictate that they will almost certainly eventually "lose."
I think that terms like 'win' and 'lose' here are misleading. The players know they're going to lose. What they want to avoid is 'total and malicious subjugation by the owners' which is a pretty sympathetic goal to my mind.
Indeed, although the players managed in the last month or two to force the owners to make concessions on many of their demands, the player chose not to accept a deal yesterday, and another a few weeks before that, that would have been far more favorable than any they are now likely to ever get.
If we split a pizza between the two of us, and you tell me that you're eating 60% of it and I'm only entitled to 40%, and we manage to get down to a 50/50 split, that doesn't mean you made 'concessions'. It means you stopped being unreasonable. The owners 'concessions' are basically like a crazy person agreeing that they won't eat your entrails, and they instead they'll only rip out a chunk of your hair. Neither one is very pleasant, but one is significantly more untenable than the other. Neither one, however, is a 'win'.
In doing so, the players have risked the entire season. This would be more understandable if the deals that have been offered by the owners were completely unreasonable (i.e. 47 / 53 BRI split, non-guaranteed deals etc). But the deals offered haven't been completely unreasonable. The deals offered are only so bad in comparison to the previous CBA, and it is my belief that that is a faulty comparison. The previous CBA was far more favorable for the players than the owners were willing to accept any longer, and the players should never have expected to see anything proposed along the same lines as the previous CBA. Yet much of what I have read about the player's expected terms suggests that they wanted to see something very much like the previous deal, with lots of free agent freedom and the ability of teams to enter a bidding war over every player.
There are two different wars being fought here by the owners and players, and your last piece highlights that.
Battle 1: How much money the players as a commodity are entitled to of all the money generated by the NBA.
Battle 2: How much freedom the players as individuals should be entitled to in terms of their ability to choose their place and terms of employment.
Ironically, both 'battles' could be solved much more competently by a more comprehensive profit-sharing system between big-market and small market teams.