Some interesting notes on Rondos jumpshooting from ESPN

[Celtics18]

All anyone wants to talk about, it seems, is how much Rondo sucks, how much Baby sucks, how much Perkins sucks and, now, how much Green sucks.    Is it possible that we have a coach who sucks at coaching young players?  No, that couldn't be it.  Never.

I don't see any evidence that Doc Rivers sucks at coaching young players.  As a matter of fact, the young players you've mentioned have all exceeded the expectations of them coming into the league, regardless of people's individual perceptions of their relative worths right now.

[bfrombleacher]

does he realy need to develop a 3point game though? I think a decent midrange game/higher free throw% would do wonders. especially free throws.

his jumpshooting is still a SLOW work in progress, but you have to admit Roy he did improve on his long 2's last year. with a higher sample size, shows hes becoming more confident with it. hed likely shoot a lower % if he took the same amt of jumpers in 09. and his form looks alot more fluid than it did in 09/10

either way, im confident that Rondo will be better next year and will continue to improve on his jump shot as long as he continues to work on it

He improved on his long twos from the year before, but didn't really improve from 2008 and 2009.

2008:  43%; 2.7 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2009:  40%; 1.9 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2010:  33%; 2.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2011:  41%; 3.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)

I see last year as a bounce back from a very poor 2010, but don't necessarily see it as part of a steady progression.

Here's his other performances:

2008:  43%; 1.6 attempts (3-9 foot jumpers)
2009:  40%; 1.3 attempts (3-9 foot jumpers)
2010:  50.4%; 1.7 attempts (3-9 foot jumpers)
2011:  27.6%; 1.1 attempts (3-9 foot jumpers)

2008:  45%; 0.7 attempts (10-15 foot jumpers)
2009:  35%; 0.6 attempts (10-15 foot jumpers)
2010:  46.9%; 0.8 attempts (10-15 foot jumpers)
2011:  31.5%; 0.5 attempts (10-15 foot jumpers)

2008:  26.3%; 0.2 attempts (three pointers)
2009:  31.3%; 0.6 attempts (three pointers)
2010:  21.3%; 1.0 attempts (three pointers)
2011:  23.3%; 0.6 attempts (three pointers)

2008:  61.1%; 2.3 attempts (free throws)
2009:  64.2%; 3.4 attempts (free throws)
2010:  62.1%; 3.5 attempts (free throws)
2011:  56.8%; 1.9 attempts (free throws)

I don't see how anybody can argue that Rondo made any real progress in any of the above categories; almost uniformly, he's actually regressed from where he was two and three seasons ago.

As for three point shooting, he doesn't *have* to add that to his game (Andre Miller has had a successful career without being able to shoot from deep), but it sure would make his game stronger.

His free throws are most important, though, and we didn't see anything encouraging in that regard last year.  Not only did his percentage did, but his attempts were cut in half, indicative of his reluctance to drive inside relative to the past two seasons.

The sample size is so small and that makes his percentages fluctuate like crazy. There is definite improvement in his shooting though if you watch him play. Bottom line is it's still not good enough.

[celtics2]

part of the problem, regardless of Rondo's actual shooting ability, has been Rondo's reluctance to make opposing defenses pay when they play off him -- whether by taking a jumper or going to the hoop.

one way or another we need Rondo to look more for his own offense.  it's no longer acceptable for Rondo to score 10 ppg playing 40 minutes a night.  any way you slice it, that's below average offensive production, even if he gets double digit assists.

Prophetically said. Rondo needs to make opposing teams pay making life easier for the likes of Allen to get open. With his speed a stop and pop shot a la Reggie Lewis would 
do wonders.

[mgent]

does he realy need to develop a 3point game though? I think a decent midrange game/higher free throw% would do wonders. especially free throws.

his jumpshooting is still a SLOW work in progress, but you have to admit Roy he did improve on his long 2's last year. with a higher sample size, shows hes becoming more confident with it. hed likely shoot a lower % if he took the same amt of jumpers in 09. and his form looks alot more fluid than it did in 09/10

either way, im confident that Rondo will be better next year and will continue to improve on his jump shot as long as he continues to work on it

He improved on his long twos from the year before, but didn't really improve from 2008 and 2009.

2008:  43%; 2.7 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2009:  40%; 1.9 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2010:  33%; 2.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2011:  41%; 3.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)

I see last year as a bounce back from a very poor 2010, but don't necessarily see it as part of a steady progression.

Here's his other performances:

2008:  43%; 1.6 attempts (3-9 foot jumpers)
2009:  40%; 1.3 attempts (3-9 foot jumpers)
2010:  50.4%; 1.7 attempts (3-9 foot jumpers)
2011:  27.6%; 1.1 attempts (3-9 foot jumpers)

2008:  45%; 0.7 attempts (10-15 foot jumpers)
2009:  35%; 0.6 attempts (10-15 foot jumpers)
2010:  46.9%; 0.8 attempts (10-15 foot jumpers)
2011:  31.5%; 0.5 attempts (10-15 foot jumpers)

2008:  26.3%; 0.2 attempts (three pointers)
2009:  31.3%; 0.6 attempts (three pointers)
2010:  21.3%; 1.0 attempts (three pointers)
2011:  23.3%; 0.6 attempts (three pointers)

2008:  61.1%; 2.3 attempts (free throws)
2009:  64.2%; 3.4 attempts (free throws)
2010:  62.1%; 3.5 attempts (free throws)
2011:  56.8%; 1.9 attempts (free throws)

I don't see how anybody can argue that Rondo made any real progress in any of the above categories; almost uniformly, he's actually regressed from where he was two and three seasons ago.

As for three point shooting, he doesn't *have* to add that to his game (Andre Miller has had a successful career without being able to shoot from deep), but it sure would make his game stronger.

His free throws are most important, though, and we didn't see anything encouraging in that regard last year.  Not only did his percentage did, but his attempts were cut in half, indicative of his reluctance to drive inside relative to the past two seasons.

Rondo doesn't have to add long range shooting to his repertoire in order to have a successful career (a la Andre Miller).  However, how many small point guards that thrive as a result of their speed, agility, reflexes, and athleticism have been able to play at a high level past their late 20's without developing a long range shot?

The only point guards in the NBA playing at a high level past their early 30's are Billups, Kidd, and Nash, guys whose shooting has gotten better and better as they've aged (Kidd may be a stretch for "high level").  It's worth noting that all those guys (including Miller) are significantly bigger than Rondo, and thus don't take the same kind of physical beating.

The closest active-player comparison I can draw to Rondo is Tony Parker, and he's already started to slow down before his 30th birthday.

Would anybody complain if Rondo's ceiling is Tony Parker in his prime with much better defense and distribution?  I kinda think he's destined to be that 3rd scoring option, not a 2nd, but able to explode on any given night depending on who's guarding him and how easy he can get to the bucket.  Rondo definitely doesn't need a great jump shot to become a high-quality scorer.  If he can become that, he'll be a very well-rounded player, and an excellent supporting piece to a multiple-championship-winning team.

Eh, I think Rondo is already on the same level as Tony Parker.

The concern I was raising, anyway, is that Tony Parker already seems to be declining before his 30th birthday.  I hope Rondo doesn't see a similar early decline, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Overall.  Because of Rondo's superior passing and defense.  He's not anywhere close as a scorer.

However, Rondo clearly has potential to be a much bigger scorer after the big 3 are gone.  He showed glimpses of being able to carry a team in the 09 playoffs.  His lack of a jumpshot isn't a huge issue, there are plenty of good scoring PGs in the league with bad jumpers.

[Galeto]

However, Rondo clearly has potential to be a much bigger scorer after the big 3 are gone.  He showed glimpses of being able to carry a team in the 09 playoffs.  His lack of a jumpshot isn't a huge issue, there are plenty of good scoring PGs in the league with bad jumpers.

Who is a good, efficient scoring PG with a bad jumper?  Rondo is easily the worst shooting PG in basketball.  Fortunately he also happens to be one of the best finishing at the rim. 

As far as being a bigger scorer, yeah I think he can too because he's a shotmaker but can he be an efficient one?  I don't think so unless he can shoot something like 52 percent or better from the field.  Not being able to shoot threes or free throws makes it really hard for him to be an efficient scorer. 

[mgent]

However, Rondo clearly has potential to be a much bigger scorer after the big 3 are gone.  He showed glimpses of being able to carry a team in the 09 playoffs.  His lack of a jumpshot isn't a huge issue, there are plenty of good scoring PGs in the league with bad jumpers.

Who is a good, efficient scoring PG with a bad jumper?  Rondo is easily the worst shooting PG in basketball.  Fortunately he also happens to be one of the best finishing at the rim. 

As far as being a bigger scorer, yeah I think he can too because he's a shotmaker but can he be an efficient one?  I don't think so unless he can shoot something like 52 percent or better from the field.  Not being able to shoot threes or free throws makes it really hard for him to be an efficient scorer. 

Rose, Westbrook, Evans (combo guard), Jennings, Parker, Wall, Stuckey (combo), and Harris.  Those are all guys who live in the paint and scored 5-10+ more points last year than Rondo.  Rondo might be more efficient than a couple of those guys, but he needs to maintain that efficiency after the big 3 leave and his attempts go up.  Andre Miller is another guy that was a decent scorer for the 76ers.

Bottom line is you don't need a jump shot to become a good scorer in the NBA.  Dwyane Wade, a former scoring champ, never took jump shots his first few years in the league.  Rondo can, and most likely will, become a better scorer, and that should really be the next step that he takes.  It's much more attainable for him than becoming a better shooter.

[paulcowens]

Got to admit, those year by year shooting stats don't fit the trajectory of improvement I claimed for Rondo, but my notion of a "trajectory" had to do more with his larger game, which has improved every year.  I think we'll realize at some point, hopefully midway through next year, that the Kid has crossed a threshold and morphed into a good shooter.

[BballTim]

Rondo is saddled with a world of potential that he may likely never realize because he can't bring it on a regular basis. One night he looks like the Most Valuable Player while the next night he looks like the Least Valuable Player.

I would prefer that  someone like a healthy Delonte lead the team because he can bring what he has, however pedestrian,  every night. We'd be better off in the long run because teammates know exactly  what to expect.

Like a soap opera or high wire act, with Rondo you just never, ever  know how its going to play or turn out.

DH

  Haha. Delonte would lead the team to 45-48 wins and a first round playoff exit. I prefer to see better players lead the team farther.

[BballTim]

That they were all-stars and hall of famers before playing with Rondo is not the point at all.  The point is that Rondo creates easy scoring opportunities for each of them.

This is one of the main reasons why each of the big three had the highest or close to the highest field goal percentages of his career last season. 

The FG% for Ray, Paul, and KG have all been up notably since the big three formed, not just last year and before Rondo was ever AS caliber.  The reason is they no longer jack up every shot, good or bad.  Ray's FG was actually very good for the Bucks because they had talent around him and were a winning team.  But on the Sonics it dipped because he was taking every shot and boosting his PPG average.

  Ray and Paul had the highest fg% of their careers last year by significant margins. So did Shaq, so did Green and Krstic for their time on the Celts.

[Finkelskyhook]

All anyone wants to talk about, it seems, is how much Rondo sucks, how much Baby sucks, how much Perkins sucks and, now, how much Green sucks.    Is it possible that we have a coach who sucks at coaching young players?  No, that couldn't be it.  Never.

I don't see any evidence that Doc Rivers sucks at coaching young players.  As a matter of fact, the young players you've mentioned have all exceeded the expectations of them coming into the league, regardless of people's individual perceptions of their relative worths right now.

I'd maintain that if Rivers could competently coach young players....We wouldn't have had to trade the entire roster for Garnett.  The only players who markedly grew under Rivers were Perk and Big Al...Both grew markedly after Clifford Ray came on board.

[BballTim]

does he realy need to develop a 3point game though? I think a decent midrange game/higher free throw% would do wonders. especially free throws.

his jumpshooting is still a SLOW work in progress, but you have to admit Roy he did improve on his long 2's last year. with a higher sample size, shows hes becoming more confident with it. hed likely shoot a lower % if he took the same amt of jumpers in 09. and his form looks alot more fluid than it did in 09/10

either way, im confident that Rondo will be better next year and will continue to improve on his jump shot as long as he continues to work on it

He improved on his long twos from the year before, but didn't really improve from 2008 and 2009.

2008:  43%; 2.7 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2009:  40%; 1.9 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2010:  33%; 2.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2011:  41%; 3.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)

I see last year as a bounce back from a very poor 2010, but don't necessarily see it as part of a steady progression.

  I think that his 2011 fg% was around 45% before his late season slump. He was taking more of those shots than he had in the past and taking them with more confidence IMO.

[Roy H.]

does he realy need to develop a 3point game though? I think a decent midrange game/higher free throw% would do wonders. especially free throws.

his jumpshooting is still a SLOW work in progress, but you have to admit Roy he did improve on his long 2's last year. with a higher sample size, shows hes becoming more confident with it. hed likely shoot a lower % if he took the same amt of jumpers in 09. and his form looks alot more fluid than it did in 09/10

either way, im confident that Rondo will be better next year and will continue to improve on his jump shot as long as he continues to work on it

He improved on his long twos from the year before, but didn't really improve from 2008 and 2009.

2008:  43%; 2.7 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2009:  40%; 1.9 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2010:  33%; 2.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2011:  41%; 3.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)

I see last year as a bounce back from a very poor 2010, but don't necessarily see it as part of a steady progression.

  I think that his 2011 fg% was around 45% before his late season slump. He was taking more of those shots than he had in the past and taking them with more confidence IMO.

Anecdotally, I remember that his percentages looked better earlier in the year.  However, I don't think we can use the overall numbers to suggest that Rondo has made huge strides in his jump shooting, which is what the ESPN article (lazily) suggested.  The numbers for the last four seasons don't suggest any trend showing improvement.

The jumper needs to get better, but I'm most worried about the FT%, as well as Rondo's reluctance to go inside last season (as compared to past seasons).  Both his attempts at the rim and his free throws attempted declined markedly last year.

[Jon]

All anyone wants to talk about, it seems, is how much Rondo sucks, how much Baby sucks, how much Perkins sucks and, now, how much Green sucks.    Is it possible that we have a coach who sucks at coaching young players?  No, that couldn't be it.  Never.

I don't see any evidence that Doc Rivers sucks at coaching young players.  As a matter of fact, the young players you've mentioned have all exceeded the expectations of them coming into the league, regardless of people's individual perceptions of their relative worths right now.

I'd maintain that if Rivers could competently coach young players....We wouldn't have had to trade the entire roster for Garnett.  The only players who markedly grew under Rivers were Perk and Big Al...Both grew markedly after Clifford Ray came on board.

Really?

Regardless of how you feel about Doc and young players, are you really saying that--under any circumstances--we'd have been better off not trading for Kevin Garnett?  The guy is a clear cut Hall of Famer and a top 5 player of the past 10 years. 

Furthermore, it's not like Doc held back anyone from becoming a superstar.  Al Jefferson still hasn't become an elite player, Perk is what he was here with OKC, Telfair never got better.  The only player who got better when he left was TA; however, TA still isn't a superstar and the biggest reason he didn't blow up here was because he was playing behind two first ballot Hall of Famers. 

Bash Doc is you want; however, to insinuate that we'd ever have been better of without KG doesn't make a lot of sense. 

[BballTim]

does he realy need to develop a 3point game though? I think a decent midrange game/higher free throw% would do wonders. especially free throws.

his jumpshooting is still a SLOW work in progress, but you have to admit Roy he did improve on his long 2's last year. with a higher sample size, shows hes becoming more confident with it. hed likely shoot a lower % if he took the same amt of jumpers in 09. and his form looks alot more fluid than it did in 09/10

either way, im confident that Rondo will be better next year and will continue to improve on his jump shot as long as he continues to work on it

He improved on his long twos from the year before, but didn't really improve from 2008 and 2009.

2008:  43%; 2.7 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2009:  40%; 1.9 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2010:  33%; 2.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2011:  41%; 3.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)

I see last year as a bounce back from a very poor 2010, but don't necessarily see it as part of a steady progression.

  I think that his 2011 fg% was around 45% before his late season slump. He was taking more of those shots than he had in the past and taking them with more confidence IMO.

Anecdotally, I remember that his percentages looked better earlier in the year.  However, I don't think we can use the overall numbers to suggest that Rondo has made huge strides in his jump shooting, which is what the ESPN article (lazily) suggested.  The numbers for the last four seasons don't suggest any trend showing improvement.

The jumper needs to get better, but I'm most worried about the FT%, as well as Rondo's reluctance to go inside last season (as compared to past seasons).  Both his attempts at the rim and his free throws attempted declined markedly last year.

  I agree about the ft%, very few point guards do a ton of damage with mid-range jumpers. (edit: Westbrook does damage, to the Thunder that is...) Plus I think that the whole jump shot issue is somewhat overblown for a variety of reasons.

  I wouldn't be surprised to see that his attempts at the rim were down a lot due to the health issues he had last year, and fewer attempts would probably tend to hurt his average.

[Finkelskyhook]

All anyone wants to talk about, it seems, is how much Rondo sucks, how much Baby sucks, how much Perkins sucks and, now, how much Green sucks.    Is it possible that we have a coach who sucks at coaching young players?  No, that couldn't be it.  Never.

I don't see any evidence that Doc Rivers sucks at coaching young players.  As a matter of fact, the young players you've mentioned have all exceeded the expectations of them coming into the league, regardless of people's individual perceptions of their relative worths right now.

I'd maintain that if Rivers could competently coach young players....We wouldn't have had to trade the entire roster for Garnett.  The only players who markedly grew under Rivers were Perk and Big Al...Both grew markedly after Clifford Ray came on board.

Really?

Regardless of how you feel about Doc and young players, are you really saying that--under any circumstances--we'd have been better off not trading for Kevin Garnett?  The guy is a clear cut Hall of Famer and a top 5 player of the past 10 years. 

Furthermore, it's not like Doc held back anyone from becoming a superstar.  Al Jefferson still hasn't become an elite player, Perk is what he was here with OKC, Telfair never got better.  The only player who got better when he left was TA; however, TA still isn't a superstar and the biggest reason he didn't blow up here was because he was playing behind two first ballot Hall of Famers. 

Bash Doc is you want; however, to insinuate that we'd ever have been better of without KG doesn't make a lot of sense. 

I didn't say we'd be better off without Garnett.  I've never said that.

That said....Blame Ainge or blame Rivers.  There was defensive regression in all of the young players except for Al and Perk because there was no defensive system implemented..Had these players had a developmental coach instead of Rivers, the roster wouldn't have had to have been gutted and several draft picks lost to get one player.  Had the philosophy been to try to win games rather than sit healthy players, tank, and undermine the team when it was playing rare cohesive basketball with bizarre substitutions...etc...Players would have developed.


  I wouldn't be surprised to see that his attempts at the rim were down a lot due to the health issues he had last year, and fewer attempts would probably tend to hurt his average.

Certainly appeared that way.