Some interesting notes on Rondos jumpshooting from ESPN

[Roy H.]

does he realy need to develop a 3point game though? I think a decent midrange game/higher free throw% would do wonders. especially free throws.

his jumpshooting is still a SLOW work in progress, but you have to admit Roy he did improve on his long 2's last year. with a higher sample size, shows hes becoming more confident with it. hed likely shoot a lower % if he took the same amt of jumpers in 09. and his form looks alot more fluid than it did in 09/10

either way, im confident that Rondo will be better next year and will continue to improve on his jump shot as long as he continues to work on it

He improved on his long twos from the year before, but didn't really improve from 2008 and 2009.

2008:  43%; 2.7 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2009:  40%; 1.9 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2010:  33%; 2.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2011:  41%; 3.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)

I see last year as a bounce back from a very poor 2010, but don't necessarily see it as part of a steady progression.

  I think that his 2011 fg% was around 45% before his late season slump. He was taking more of those shots than he had in the past and taking them with more confidence IMO.

Anecdotally, I remember that his percentages looked better earlier in the year.  However, I don't think we can use the overall numbers to suggest that Rondo has made huge strides in his jump shooting, which is what the ESPN article (lazily) suggested.  The numbers for the last four seasons don't suggest any trend showing improvement.

The jumper needs to get better, but I'm most worried about the FT%, as well as Rondo's reluctance to go inside last season (as compared to past seasons).  Both his attempts at the rim and his free throws attempted declined markedly last year.

  I agree about the ft%, very few point guards do a ton of damage with mid-range jumpers. (edit: Westbrook does damage, to the Thunder that is...) Plus I think that the whole jump shot issue is somewhat overblown for a variety of reasons.

  I wouldn't be surprised to see that his attempts at the rim were down a lot due to the health issues he had last year, and fewer attempts would probably tend to hurt his average.

There aren't any splits for stats like "shots at the rim", but here's what his FTAs per game looked like in each month:

October: 2.7
November: 2.4
December: 0.5
January: 1.5
February: 2.6
March: 1.5
April: 3.2

Pre All-Star: 2.0
Post All-Star: 1.8

The season before, he averaged 3.5 FTAs per game; he didn't reach that average in any individual month last year.  My guess would be that his inside shots followed a similar pattern.

[BballTim]

does he realy need to develop a 3point game though? I think a decent midrange game/higher free throw% would do wonders. especially free throws.

his jumpshooting is still a SLOW work in progress, but you have to admit Roy he did improve on his long 2's last year. with a higher sample size, shows hes becoming more confident with it. hed likely shoot a lower % if he took the same amt of jumpers in 09. and his form looks alot more fluid than it did in 09/10

either way, im confident that Rondo will be better next year and will continue to improve on his jump shot as long as he continues to work on it

He improved on his long twos from the year before, but didn't really improve from 2008 and 2009.

2008:  43%; 2.7 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2009:  40%; 1.9 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2010:  33%; 2.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2011:  41%; 3.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)

I see last year as a bounce back from a very poor 2010, but don't necessarily see it as part of a steady progression.

  I think that his 2011 fg% was around 45% before his late season slump. He was taking more of those shots than he had in the past and taking them with more confidence IMO.

Anecdotally, I remember that his percentages looked better earlier in the year.  However, I don't think we can use the overall numbers to suggest that Rondo has made huge strides in his jump shooting, which is what the ESPN article (lazily) suggested.  The numbers for the last four seasons don't suggest any trend showing improvement.

The jumper needs to get better, but I'm most worried about the FT%, as well as Rondo's reluctance to go inside last season (as compared to past seasons).  Both his attempts at the rim and his free throws attempted declined markedly last year.

  I agree about the ft%, very few point guards do a ton of damage with mid-range jumpers. (edit: Westbrook does damage, to the Thunder that is...) Plus I think that the whole jump shot issue is somewhat overblown for a variety of reasons.

  I wouldn't be surprised to see that his attempts at the rim were down a lot due to the health issues he had last year, and fewer attempts would probably tend to hurt his average.

There aren't any splits for stats like "shots at the rim", but here's what his FTAs per game looked like in each month:

October: 2.7
November: 2.4
December: 0.5
January: 1.5
February: 2.6
March: 1.5
April: 3.2

Pre All-Star: 2.0
Post All-Star: 1.8

The season before, he averaged 3.5 FTAs per game; he didn't reach that average in any individual month last year.  My guess would be that his inside shots followed a similar pattern.

  That correlates somewhat with his health. In any case, his inside shooting falls somewhat in the "something's got to give" category. He seemed to be taking more outside shots last year and hitting them at a decent clip. He was also leading the league in assists by a comfortable margin. Taking a lot more inside shots would take away from one of those two things.

  It's also worth noting that this is regular season stats. In the playoffs Rondo averaged about 6.5 shots at the rim a game, including the games he was playing one-handed.

[Roy H.]

In any case, his inside shooting falls somewhat in the "something's got to give" category. He seemed to be taking more outside shots last year and hitting them at a decent clip. He was also leading the league in assists by a comfortable margin. Taking a lot more inside shots would take away from one of those two things.

Taking more inside shots, as opposed to jumpers, would seem to be a better strategy.  Rondo is still around a 40% jump shooter, at best.  Any offensive strategy that prefers Rondo taking jumpers is a flawed one.

[BballTim]

In any case, his inside shooting falls somewhat in the "something's got to give" category. He seemed to be taking more outside shots last year and hitting them at a decent clip. He was also leading the league in assists by a comfortable margin. Taking a lot more inside shots would take away from one of those two things.

Taking more inside shots, as opposed to jumpers, would seem to be a better strategy.  Rondo is still around a 40% jump shooter, at best.  Any offensive strategy that prefers Rondo taking jumpers is a flawed one.

  I agree, yet here we are in a thread about Rondo's jump shooting...

[mgent]

does he realy need to develop a 3point game though? I think a decent midrange game/higher free throw% would do wonders. especially free throws.

his jumpshooting is still a SLOW work in progress, but you have to admit Roy he did improve on his long 2's last year. with a higher sample size, shows hes becoming more confident with it. hed likely shoot a lower % if he took the same amt of jumpers in 09. and his form looks alot more fluid than it did in 09/10

either way, im confident that Rondo will be better next year and will continue to improve on his jump shot as long as he continues to work on it

He improved on his long twos from the year before, but didn't really improve from 2008 and 2009.

2008:  43%; 2.7 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2009:  40%; 1.9 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2010:  33%; 2.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)
2011:  41%; 3.3 attempts (16-23 foot jumpers)

I see last year as a bounce back from a very poor 2010, but don't necessarily see it as part of a steady progression.

  I think that his 2011 fg% was around 45% before his late season slump. He was taking more of those shots than he had in the past and taking them with more confidence IMO.

Anecdotally, I remember that his percentages looked better earlier in the year.  However, I don't think we can use the overall numbers to suggest that Rondo has made huge strides in his jump shooting, which is what the ESPN article (lazily) suggested.  The numbers for the last four seasons don't suggest any trend showing improvement.

The jumper needs to get better, but I'm most worried about the FT%, as well as Rondo's reluctance to go inside last season (as compared to past seasons).  Both his attempts at the rim and his free throws attempted declined markedly last year.

  I agree about the ft%, very few point guards do a ton of damage with mid-range jumpers. (edit: Westbrook does damage, to the Thunder that is...) Plus I think that the whole jump shot issue is somewhat overblown for a variety of reasons.

  I wouldn't be surprised to see that his attempts at the rim were down a lot due to the health issues he had last year, and fewer attempts would probably tend to hurt his average.

There aren't any splits for stats like "shots at the rim", but here's what his FTAs per game looked like in each month:

October: 2.7
November: 2.4
December: 0.5
January: 1.5
February: 2.6
March: 1.5
April: 3.2

Pre All-Star: 2.0
Post All-Star: 1.8

The season before, he averaged 3.5 FTAs per game; he didn't reach that average in any individual month last year.  My guess would be that his inside shots followed a similar pattern.

  That correlates somewhat with his health. In any case, his inside shooting falls somewhat in the "something's got to give" category. He seemed to be taking more outside shots last year and hitting them at a decent clip. He was also leading the league in assists by a comfortable margin. Taking a lot more inside shots would take away from one of those two things.

  It's also worth noting that this is regular season stats. In the playoffs Rondo averaged about 6.5 shots at the rim a game, including the games he was playing one-handed.

A lot of times he was getting those assists by passing to the big 3 for a tough finish or long jumper.  When he's open inside and can hit that layup or floater (which completely disappeared from his game) at a good percentage, I don't see how dishing it is always the best offensive strategy either.

[Vermont Green]

He seemed to be taking more outside shots last year and hitting them at a decent clip.

I don't remember Rondo ever hitting outside shots at a decent clip.  As the season wore on, teams sagged off him farther and farther taking away opportunities for assists.  His assists went down due to this adjustment by other teams and Rondo was unable to make them pay.

Also back to my comparison to Ben Wallace.  I wasn't trying to suggest that they were equal in terms of shooting but rather pointing out that a 45% shooting percentage does not prove Wallace is a good shooter any more than Rondo's 40% shows he is an average shooter.

I have been watching basketball for quite a few years (playing it too incidently) and I have never seen a guard get sagged off of like teams sag off Rondo.  The only comparable is someone like Ben Wallace who teams don't cover outside of 10', just like Rondo.

That is the point.  You don't need to look at any stats, just look at how teams cover Rondo.  All the other coaches and players know that Rondo can't hurt them by shooting.  The defense they deploy is essentially an insult to Rondo.  The way to know when Rondo improves his shooting is by watching the defense on him, not by cherry picking stats.

[Finkelskyhook]

A lot of times he was getting those assists by passing to the big 3 for a tough finish or long jumper.  When he's open inside and can hit that layup or floater (which completely disappeared from his game) at a good percentage, I don't see how dishing it is always the best offensive strategy either.

With his assists-to-turnover ratio it's clear that he's making the right decision most of the time.   The layup of floater disappeared from his repitoire after he got hurt.

[deekhead]

He seemed to be taking more outside shots last year and hitting them at a decent clip.

I don't remember Rondo ever hitting outside shots at a decent clip.  As the season wore on, teams sagged off him farther and farther taking away opportunities for assists.  His assists went down due to this adjustment by other teams and Rondo was unable to make them pay.

Also back to my comparison to Ben Wallace.  I wasn't trying to suggest that they were equal in terms of shooting but rather pointing out that a 45% shooting percentage does not prove Wallace is a good shooter any more than Rondo's 40% shows he is an average shooter.

I have been watching basketball for quite a few years (playing it too incidently) and I have never seen a guard get sagged off of like teams sag off Rondo.  The only comparable is someone like Ben Wallace who teams don't cover outside of 10', just like Rondo.

That is the point.  You don't need to look at any stats, just look at how teams cover Rondo.  All the other coaches and players know that Rondo can't hurt them by shooting.  The defense they deploy is essentially an insult to Rondo.  The way to know when Rondo improves his shooting is by watching the defense on him, not by cherry picking stats.

The comparison between Rondo and Ben Wallace is insulting, and justifiably so. Its also much closer to the truth than most Rondo fans want to believe.

For those who swear that Rondo's shooting is improving, despite what all but the most cherry-picked stats suggest, watch the defenders. They'll be the first to let you know that his shooting game is improving to the point of approaching respectability.

Short of respectability, there is little to talk about except that Wallace and Rondo are in the same graduating class together.

Kindergarten.

DH

[chambers]

He seemed to be taking more outside shots last year and hitting them at a decent clip.

I don't remember Rondo ever hitting outside shots at a decent clip.  As the season wore on, teams sagged off him farther and farther taking away opportunities for assists.  His assists went down due to this adjustment by other teams and Rondo was unable to make them pay.

Also back to my comparison to Ben Wallace.  I wasn't trying to suggest that they were equal in terms of shooting but rather pointing out that a 45% shooting percentage does not prove Wallace is a good shooter any more than Rondo's 40% shows he is an average shooter.

I have been watching basketball for quite a few years (playing it too incidently) and I have never seen a guard get sagged off of like teams sag off Rondo.  The only comparable is someone like Ben Wallace who teams don't cover outside of 10', just like Rondo.

That is the point.  You don't need to look at any stats, just look at how teams cover Rondo.  All the other coaches and players know that Rondo can't hurt them by shooting.  The defense they deploy is essentially an insult to Rondo.  The way to know when Rondo improves his shooting is by watching the defense on him, not by cherry picking stats.

The comparison between Rondo and Ben Wallace is insulting, and justifiably so. Its also much closer to the truth than most Rondo fans want to believe.

For those who swear that Rondo's shooting is improving, despite what all but the most cherry-picked stats suggest, watch the defenders. They'll be the first to let you know that his shooting game is improving to the point of approaching respectability.

Short of respectability, there is little to talk about except that Wallace and Rondo are in the same graduating class together.

Kindergarten.

DH

don't know if i agree 100% with this.
Rondo shoots at 40% but he never has a hand in his face so he is literally wide open most of the time.

The counter argument to this could be that he takes a large % of shots to beat the shot clock and they are rushed or out of his comfort zone- similar to big baby's much criticized shooting efforts.

They are two guys who often end up with the ball in their hands with less than 5 seconds on the clock (which is the plan of most NBA teams when they play the Celtics). But it still changes the way their overall % should be assessed in my opinion.

[Finkelskyhook]

He seemed to be taking more outside shots last year and hitting them at a decent clip.

I don't remember Rondo ever hitting outside shots at a decent clip.  As the season wore on, teams sagged off him farther and farther taking away opportunities for assists.  His assists went down due to this adjustment by other teams and Rondo was unable to make them pay.

Also back to my comparison to Ben Wallace.  I wasn't trying to suggest that they were equal in terms of shooting but rather pointing out that a 45% shooting percentage does not prove Wallace is a good shooter any more than Rondo's 40% shows he is an average shooter.

I have been watching basketball for quite a few years (playing it too incidently) and I have never seen a guard get sagged off of like teams sag off Rondo.  The only comparable is someone like Ben Wallace who teams don't cover outside of 10', just like Rondo.

That is the point.  You don't need to look at any stats, just look at how teams cover Rondo.  All the other coaches and players know that Rondo can't hurt them by shooting.  The defense they deploy is essentially an insult to Rondo.  The way to know when Rondo improves his shooting is by watching the defense on him, not by cherry picking stats.

The comparison between Rondo and Ben Wallace is insulting, and justifiably so. Its also much closer to the truth than most Rondo fans want to believe.

For those who swear that Rondo's shooting is improving, despite what all but the most cherry-picked stats suggest, watch the defenders. They'll be the first to let you know that his shooting game is improving to the point of approaching respectability.

Short of respectability, there is little to talk about except that Wallace and Rondo are in the same graduating class together.

Kindergarten.

DH

I'm glad this prehistoric basketball playing kindergartener is on our team.

Geez.

[PosImpos]

However, Rondo clearly has potential to be a much bigger scorer after the big 3 are gone.  He showed glimpses of being able to carry a team in the 09 playoffs.  His lack of a jumpshot isn't a huge issue, there are plenty of good scoring PGs in the league with bad jumpers.

Who is a good, efficient scoring PG with a bad jumper?  Rondo is easily the worst shooting PG in basketball.  Fortunately he also happens to be one of the best finishing at the rim.  

As far as being a bigger scorer, yeah I think he can too because he's a shotmaker but can he be an efficient one?  I don't think so unless he can shoot something like 52 percent or better from the field.  Not being able to shoot threes or free throws makes it really hard for him to be an efficient scorer.  

Rose, Westbrook, Evans (combo guard), Jennings, Parker, Wall, Stuckey (combo), and Harris.  Those are all guys who live in the paint and scored 5-10+ more points last year than Rondo.  Rondo might be more efficient than a couple of those guys, but he needs to maintain that efficiency after the big 3 leave and his attempts go up.  Andre Miller is another guy that was a decent scorer for the 76ers.

Bottom line is you don't need a jump shot to become a good scorer in the NBA.  Dwyane Wade, a former scoring champ, never took jump shots his first few years in the league.  Rondo can, and most likely will, become a better scorer, and that should really be the next step that he takes.  It's much more attainable for him than becoming a better shooter.

Worth noting, all of those guys with the exception of Jennings and Parker are significantly bigger than Rondo (can play more physically without taking as much of a beating), and are still significantly better jump shooters.

[Celtics18]

He seemed to be taking more outside shots last year and hitting them at a decent clip.

I don't remember Rondo ever hitting outside shots at a decent clip.  As the season wore on, teams sagged off him farther and farther taking away opportunities for assists.  His assists went down due to this adjustment by other teams and Rondo was unable to make them pay.

Also back to my comparison to Ben Wallace.  I wasn't trying to suggest that they were equal in terms of shooting but rather pointing out that a 45% shooting percentage does not prove Wallace is a good shooter any more than Rondo's 40% shows he is an average shooter.

I have been watching basketball for quite a few years (playing it too incidently) and I have never seen a guard get sagged off of like teams sag off Rondo.  The only comparable is someone like Ben Wallace who teams don't cover outside of 10', just like Rondo.

That is the point.  You don't need to look at any stats, just look at how teams cover Rondo.  All the other coaches and players know that Rondo can't hurt them by shooting.  The defense they deploy is essentially an insult to Rondo.  The way to know when Rondo improves his shooting is by watching the defense on him, not by cherry picking stats.

OK, I know you're not comparing Rondo to Ben Wallace as an outside shooter, but I want to point out some flaws in your "comparison", nonetheless.

Rondo's not a 40% shooter.  He's a 40% shooter from 16-23 feet.  He is shooting .486 from the field for his career.  His .475 from the field last season is his lowest since his rookie year.  Ben Wallace shoots .475 from the field for his career, despite almost never taking shots from more than 10 feet out. 

Ben Wallace is one of the worst shooters in the history of basketball, whereas Rajon Rondo is a mediocre to poor outside shooter. 

I understand that this is apples to oranges seeing as Ben Wallace is known almost exclusively as a defensive and rebounding center while Rondo is a point guard. 

Guys like Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings, and Derrick Rose are all mediocre outside shooters, as well.  They all get backed off and given jump shots, as opposed to being played up tight with the danger of being driven by, quite frequently as well. 

One major difference is that most of those guys (with the possible exception of Parker) are not adverse at all to jacking up almost any shot that presents itself.  Therefore, of course, they are played as primarily scorers much more than Rondo who is more likely to kill you with the passing game. 

However, they are not significantly better outside shooters.  If Rondo decided to starting being a gunner (or was forced to be), I'm sure he could score at the rate of those other point guards.  I'm hoping he doesn't ever turn into a Russell Westbrook or Derrick Rose type shoot first guard, though. 

[BballTim]

He seemed to be taking more outside shots last year and hitting them at a decent clip.

I don't remember Rondo ever hitting outside shots at a decent clip.  As the season wore on, teams sagged off him farther and farther taking away opportunities for assists.  His assists went down due to this adjustment by other teams and Rondo was unable to make them pay.

  He was hitting them at a decent clip whether you remember or not, at a rate above average for point guards. His assists went down when he was having health problems and went back up when he recovered. I seriously doubt it's the case that nobody in the nba knew to sag off of Rondo when the season started and they all figured it out near the all-star break, only to forget later in the season.

Also back to my comparison to Ben Wallace.  I wasn't trying to suggest that they were equal in terms of shooting but rather pointing out that a 45% shooting percentage does not prove Wallace is a good shooter any more than Rondo's 40% shows he is an average shooter.

  Ben Wallace basically makes about 50% of his layups and about 25% of his jump shots. KG makes roughly 70% of his layups and 45% or so of his jump shots. The reason Wallace has a somewhat similar fg% is than almost all of his shots are from within a foot or two of the rim while KG takes more jumpers. This is the opposite of the Rondo discussion, where people are comparing his fg% on long jumpers to the fg% of other pgs from the same distance.

I have been watching basketball for quite a few years (playing it too incidently) and I have never seen a guard get sagged off of like teams sag off Rondo.  The only comparable is someone like Ben Wallace who teams don't cover outside of 10', just like Rondo.

  I think that a lot more players are left unguarded than you realize, and a lot more shots are wide open as well.

That is the point.  You don't need to look at any stats, just look at how teams cover Rondo.  All the other coaches and players know that Rondo can't hurt them by shooting.  The defense they deploy is essentially an insult to Rondo.  The way to know when Rondo improves his shooting is by watching the defense on him, not by cherry picking stats.

  You also need to consider the circumstances of the games. If Rondo's man stays close to him 20 feet from the basket Rajon will get into the lane on a regular basis. The option then becomes letting him shoot a layup, getting help from the center (easy basket for the Celts) or leaving Ray, PP or KG alone to help out. The defense we saw was seen as the best way to stop the Celts and it was *still* unsuccessful when Rondo was healthy. The defense can't take everything away, and it seems sensible that the play they would guard the least was a long jumper by Rondo.

  Look at the Celts games vs the Heat. Bibby would give Rondo plenty of space, the announcers would comment on it and everyone noticed. The ball went the other way and Rondo wasn't even staying on the same side of the court as Bibby, tracking closer to Wade and James. Was this because Bibby's a terrible outside shot? No, he hit about 44% of his threes on the season and is a career 38% shooter. Was the defense an insult to Bibby? No, it was the Celts having to give up one thing to load up on another.

[BballTim]

The comparison between Rondo and Ben Wallace is insulting, and justifiably so. Its also much closer to the truth than most Rondo fans want to believe.

  Ben Wallace is at or near the bottom of the centers for fg% from most distances from the basket every year. Rondo is, more often than not, at or above average from every distance inside the arc. So it's pretty close aside from being wildly incorrect, I'll give you that.

For those who swear that Rondo's shooting is improving, despite what all but the most cherry-picked stats suggest, watch the defenders. They'll be the first to let you know that his shooting game is improving to the point of approaching respectability.

  People are comparing Rondo to other point guards shooting the same shots over the course of a year or possibly over his career. How is this possibly cherry-picking? Go ahead and provide the stats that are more accurate.

Short of respectability, there is little to talk about except that Wallace and Rondo are in the same graduating class together.

Kindergarten.

DH

  Funny, coming from someone who waxes poetic about another player in that class, DJ.

[deekhead]

Sorry Tim. DJ is not in that graduating class with Rondo and Gentle Ben.
 
He is deceased.

Thought you needed to know.

DH