CB DRAFT FINALS THREAD: Sixers Win!!!!!!!

[Fafnir]

To pivot back to the matchup, IP did you ever answer Who's question about Derrick William's role?

If you did I missed it, I'm quite curious as to how you'll use him.

[Fafnir]

Mgent, do you plan on doing anything special to contain Amar'e and/or Bogut?

[nickagneta]

Sorry, maybe I should have said a bunch or a lot rather than generalizing it and making it seem like everyone who votes Portland voted antiLebron. But if you think that no one voted anti Lebron I think you would be sorely mistaken. His Finals choke this year was a large factor in the Portland/Kings vote and even IP thought he was going to lose by a bunch.
I

Well 'by a bunch' is a bit of an overstatement. I thought I was going to lose, because basically the whole thread was you and Kane telling me so.

Old Jedi mind trick

Your team is going to lose...you don't need to count those votes.

Hey. Our team is going to lose. I don't have to count those votes.

[mgent]

Kobe couldn't win without an all NBA Big, Wade couldn't, Pierce couldn't. Only one swing player ever could and that's MJ. That's why I think Philly doesn't have enough to win with Wade.

So you're just taking the teams and the matchups out of the equation.  As long as you have an all NBA Big you automatically win?  I bet you any money I could name more that lost than won.

Well, tell me the last NBA champion that didn't have an all-star frontcourt player.

I'm thinking about it, and...Bulls?

I think that Wade and Iggy are streaky enough to wins some games on their own.

I also think that Bogut, Delfino, and Lowry are consistent enough to really bother Wade and Iggy, and STAT is good enough to keep David West from making a difference offensively.

Bogut will be allowed free-range off of Anderson Varejao once Wade or Iggy start their move to the basket, and I think that's a huge difference maker.

Bogut being able to leave Varejao once the drive really begins changes the series.

Tell me the last time a team won without an all star perimeter player.  Or a true go-to scorer on the perimeter.

I agree with you, size is more important, but the rest of the players are almost as important and I think in this case both of our teams are elite enough where you have to look at overall talent and matchups rather than just saying "size automatically wins."

Spurs first title.
The Rockets first title.

First of all, you can't compare prime Duncan and Hakeem to Amare.

Second of all, Tony Parker is a better go-to scorer than Lowry, and S-Jax plus a young Manu is better than Harden.

Third, 04 Pistons had no "all-NBA" big, they won that year due to Hamilton and Billups + an amazing defense.

There was no Tony Parker for the first title.  It was Avery at PG.

And the first year Parker won a title, he split time with Speedy.  

Whoops, someone said 03 Spurs that's what I had in my head.  The first Spurs however had Duncan and Robinson carrying them.  How does that support the claim that Amare and Bogut (far inferior) automatically win?

That's my leaning.  You tell me what you plan to do to counter that and why you will win.


Historical arguments is what lead me to think size kills. 

That's the thing, historical arguments don't apply here.  You're talking about two of the BEST BIGS OF ALL FREAKIN TIME in Duncan and Robinson, and the one of the only teams EVER to win without an all-NBA perimeter player.

Name one team with an all star PF, a good C, and no premiere go-to scorer won a title.  There's your historical argument.

My plan to counter the Blazers is to outscore them at SG and SF way more than Amare will outscore David West, while playing better defense.  

How?


AI2 does not stretch the floor for Wade, so the defense can pack it in and they have a shot blocker in Bogut that sideshow can not pull out of the paint.  



I see Wade getting his 26 or so points and AI2 getting 12.  



And you still haven't addressed my thoughts on how you will approach the Blazers advantage as big men.  And no matter your views on history, mine is still the best size usually kills.  If you want my vote, you need to address this better.

I will approach them one on one.  I won't double and give shooters like Harden, Delfino, and Lowry room so they can get hot.  My defense is strong enough to limit the rest of his players and if that means Amare will get his on some nights so be it.  I don't think Amare is nearly as capable at carrying the load as Wade is.

Amare's playoff averages:  14.5ppg, 7.8rpg, 1.8 apg,  38% shooting
Wade's finals averages:  26.5ppg, 7rpg, 5.2apg,  55% shooting

You still haven't addressed how the Blazers frontcourt is so good that my huge advantage on the wings don't even come into play.  Size might be more important but his advantage there pales in comparason to Wade and Iggy's advantages.  What has Amare proven compared to Wade?  He and Carmelo just got swept in the first round.  My superior defense is going to slow Lowry, Delfino, Harden, and Amare more than his defense is going to slow Wade, Iguodala, and West.


You've already seen the numbers:
Hinrich vs Lowry

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=lowryky01&p2=hinriki01


Wade vs Harden

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=wadedw01&p2=hardeja01


Iguodala vs Delfino

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=iguodan01&p2=delfica01

[mgent]

I've been gone for a while bc of work, so apologies if I didn't answer anyone's questions. I looked back, and while I saw a lot of theories out there, I didn't see anyone actually asking anything of me, per se.

So, lets refocus this bad-boy.

Philly only has one 'good' outside shooter in Captain Kirk. Barbosa is about good enough not to leave alone. Wade and Iggy are both horribly streaky and below average for their positions as starters.

Iggy, in fact, shoots less than 30% on short to mid-range jumpers, and only 37% on long 2's.

Wade is better from 3-9 feet, but he is still a sub 40% shooter from anywhere outside that range, and in the playoffs last season, he shot a stellar 27% from 3.

I've got two shotblockers down low, and elite help defender to protect the rim. The Sixers, coincidentally, are starting a guy in Varejao that Bogut will have no problem leaving to disrupt a shot, and while Iggy and Wade are both good playmakers, I don't think they're on par with LeBron, meaning good enough to make Bogut pay consistently for helping off AV.

Lowry is one of the top defensive point guards, and Delfino is a very talented defender on the wing. Maybe a bit more cagey than quick, but he's stronger than either Iggy or Wade, and shouldn't play anything even approaching matador defense, and against Iggy especially should act as a pretty good deterrant. Harden is about average defensively, which means against Wade he's at a disadvantage.

Amare Stoudemire isn't a very good defensive anchor (actually, I have learned he's really bad at that), but he's been pretty good defending David West, and since West's by no means quicker, and more athletic, he should be able to use that ability to bother West's shot more often than now.

So they all funnel it towards Andrew Bogut. Its not going to work every game, but this is a pretty tried and true method of dealing with guys like Iggy and Wade.  

That's how I'm going to defensively limit the Sixers.  

Actually Barbosa is a 39% 3pt shooter.  One year he hit 2 and a half a game at 43%.  I'd say he's better than "about good enough not to leave alone."

[Fafnir]

Actually Barbosa is a 39% 3pt shooter.  One year he hit 2 and a half a game at 43%.  I'd say he's better than "about good enough not to leave alone."

My concern with this statement is that he's shot 32% and 33% the last two years. His first six years in the league he did shoot 3's much better, but his shot has been off. I'd say it was the Steve Nash effect, but the first of his bad shooting years was in Phoenix.

[indeedproceed]

How I'm Going To Deploy Derrick Williams, or, "I'll Miss You Most Of All, Tin Man."

First, curse you Fafnir for posting right after me and hiding my brilliant defensive plan. Now no one is gonna read it and I'm gonna lose and its all gonna be your fault!

Derrick Williams will get limited minutes, again. But, no more than 5-9 of those minutes are going to be at the 3. He ought to get another 15 minutes at the 4, but that'll be dependent on how well he fares in the first 2 games or so. If he's really struggling, Jerebko will take those minutes.

Whenever Iggy leaves the game at the 3, Williams will take those minutes away from Delfino. Whenever Iggy is in the game, Delfino will be in the game also.

The Frontcourt is a little more fluid. Kenyon Martin will be the litmus test for Williams' role. If it were the regular season, I couldn't care less if Martin shut down Williams, but in the playoffs if Martin really gets to Williams, I can't afford the big fella to be out there and not scoring.

On the plus side, I don't think Williams will have much problem scoring on Martin or West if he gets the ball far enough away from the hoop. Williams should be significantly quicker, and has arguably the most deadly mid-range shot in the series. Martin and West will both need to crowd him, so Williams will be free to put the ball on teh floor and use his great footwork and better quickness and speed to get around the defender, and with Varejao not being able to leave Bogut alone, I think WIlliams should be okay.

If he isn't, I've got jack of all trades, Mister Energy himself, the Swedish Eagle, Jonas Jerebko there to take those minutes, as well as Anthony Tolliver to help stretch the floor. But my first priority is to see how Williams fares, so for the first 2 games WIlliams will be getting 20-25 minutes.

EDIT: The "I'll Miss You Most Of All, Tin Man" comment was because drafting Derrick Williams was the move I made this draft that I'm most proud of.

[indeedproceed]

Actually Barbosa is a 39% 3pt shooter.  One year he hit 2 and a half a game at 43%.  I'd say he's better than "about good enough not to leave alone."

My concern with this statement is that he's shot 32% and 33% the last two years. His first six years in the league he did shoot 3's much better, but his shot has been off.

I was actually trying to be impartial. Barbosa the last 2 years has been pretty poor from 3, especially considering he took nearly 4 attempts per game and that would've put him in the top 10 for attempts per contest among starting PG's...who played 30+ minutes a night

But Barbosa only played 24 minutes a night. He would've led all point guards in 3pts attempted per game if he played 36 minutes a game...and he would've done that at 33.4%.

[mgent]

Mgent, do you plan on doing anything special to contain Amar'e and/or Bogut?

Nope, IP's shooters are too good to double.  West and Varejao will play them straight up.  Varejao will do a better job on Bogut than IP wants you to think.  He'll guard Amare when Amare's playing C, or when Lopez is in at C (who West can handle).

When West sits, I've got KMarts fresh legs to throw at Amare.  Situationly, I might throw Bonner in for limited minutes to draw Bogut out of the paint for Iggy and Wade.

Overall, Varejao and West/KMart will match Bogut and Amare defensively.  Offensively I think they'll out score my bigs, but not nearly as much as Wade and Iguodala will limit and outscore Harden and Delfino.

[indeedproceed]

Mgent, do you plan on doing anything special to contain Amar'e and/or Bogut?

Nope, IP's shooters are too good to double.  West and Varejao will play them straight up.  Varejao will do a better job on Bogut than IP wants you to think.  He'll guard Amare when Amare's playing C, or when Lopez is in at C (who West can handle).

When West sits, I've got KMarts fresh legs to throw at Amare.  Situationly, I might throw Bonner in for limited minutes to draw Bogut out of the paint for Iggy and Wade.

Overall, Varejao and West/KMart will match Bogut and Amare defensively.  Offensively I think they'll out score my bigs, but not nearly as much as Wade and Iguodala will limit and outscore Harden and Delfino.

mgent: Tell me one game in the last 3 years where Andersen Varejao plainly guarded Bogut for the majority of his time on the floor in a H2H matchup.

[mgent]

Actually Barbosa is a 39% 3pt shooter.  One year he hit 2 and a half a game at 43%.  I'd say he's better than "about good enough not to leave alone."

My concern with this statement is that he's shot 32% and 33% the last two years. His first six years in the league he did shoot 3's much better, but his shot has been off. I'd say it was the Steve Nash effect, but the first of his bad shooting years was in Phoenix.

Probably has to do with getting a pretty decent minute cut in 09-10, and then changed teams to Toronto.

[mgent]

Mgent, do you plan on doing anything special to contain Amar'e and/or Bogut?

Nope, IP's shooters are too good to double.  West and Varejao will play them straight up.  Varejao will do a better job on Bogut than IP wants you to think.  He'll guard Amare when Amare's playing C, or when Lopez is in at C (who West can handle).

When West sits, I've got KMarts fresh legs to throw at Amare.  Situationly, I might throw Bonner in for limited minutes to draw Bogut out of the paint for Iggy and Wade.

Overall, Varejao and West/KMart will match Bogut and Amare defensively.  Offensively I think they'll out score my bigs, but not nearly as much as Wade and Iguodala will limit and outscore Harden and Delfino.

mgent: Tell me one game in the last 3 years where Andersen Varejao plainly guarded Bogut for the majority of his time on the floor in a H2H matchup.

Tell me the last time you saw Bogut guarded by Varejao for the majority of his time on the floor and Bogut scored easily and consistently.

We don't know he will.

[indeedproceed]

Rotation, for those who care:

PG: Lowry (40), Sessions (8)
SG: Harden (37), Morrow (11)
SF: Delfino (Iggy), Williams (whatever is left..~10)
PF: Stoudemire (30), Williams (15), Jerebko or Tolliver as needed.
C: Bogut (38), Stoudemire (10)

[mgent]

This is good!  Me and IP are finally on at the same time.

[KCattheStripe]

IP's plan to defend Wade for 50 minutes in a 48 minute game has blown my mind. What an innovator.