CB Draft Eastern Conference Finals: Sixers (1) Vs Knicks (4)

[Fafnir]

Amar'e didn't just miss 05-06 with an ACL, his knees also required microfracture surgery.

That's a more serious situation than just an ACL tear, though both are pretty bad.

[mgent]

Did we mention that our team defense revolves around literally beheading Dwayne Wade?!!?

We think this will *cut*   his scoring and assists drastically; though we still expect him to be a plus rebounder and defender  

Did I mention how good Dwyane Wade is at dislocating the elbows of star PGs in the playoffs?

verrrrry good point. so long Jodie Meeks!

I think most of the time players are close to peak level post-injury 1 1/4 years later, if they're going to recover at all.  Some players (Tony Allen) return to the court a full half year sooner than that.  And returning to pre-injury form is far from unheard of.

Again, it was a clean tear with a very optimistic recovery time.

Amare missed all of 2005-06 with the ACL and it took him 1/2 of 06-07 to get back to being "Amare"

I don't think Who and I are saying it will take West 1.5-2 years to get back on the court (all indications are that West woudl be ready for the NBA season come NOV/DEC of this year) but that his play/effectiveness/athleticism will be limited while he gets back the strength/agility in his knee.

I think there's a good chance he gets at least 80-90% of that strength back in 6 months of play.

At least a better chance that he does than he doesn't

[Gainesville Celtic]

How will Dwayne Wade play without a head?!? Don't think that's covered in his "get knocked down 7 times, get up 8" ad campaign.

[Kane3387]

I got Knicks. I like their PG advantage, front court,  and bench more. I think SF is a draw. While Wade does have the SG advantage, I think Williams can control the pace of the series more then anyone else in this series.

[Roy H.]

I voted Sixers, which probably isn't a huge surprise.  I think this is a 5 game series.  I really think Iggy, Varejao, and Wade/Hinrich would stifle the Knicks offense, and Wade (and to a lesser extent West and Iggy) would take advantage of NY on offense.

[mgent]

I got Knicks. I like their PG advantage, front court,  and bench more. I think SF is a draw. While Wade does have the SG advantage, I think Williams can control the pace of the series more then anyone else in this series.

His advantage at PG:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hinriki01&p2=willide01



My advantage at SG:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=wadedw01&p2=meeksjo01




West+Varejao+KMart >>> Duncan+Gibson+Turiaf

[KCattheStripe]

I got Knicks. I like their PG advantage, front court,  and bench more. I think SF is a draw. While Wade does have the SG advantage, I think Williams can control the pace of the series more then anyone else in this series.

His advantage at PG:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hinriki01&p2=willide01



My advantage at SG:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=wadedw01&p2=meeksjo01




West+Varejao+KMart >>> Duncan+Gibson+Turiaf

I disagree with that assessment of the frontcourt completely. But I loves me some DWade.

[mgent]

I got Knicks. I like their PG advantage, front court,  and bench more. I think SF is a draw. While Wade does have the SG advantage, I think Williams can control the pace of the series more then anyone else in this series.

His advantage at PG:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hinriki01&p2=willide01



My advantage at SG:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=wadedw01&p2=meeksjo01




West+Varejao+KMart >>> Duncan+Gibson+Turiaf

I disagree with that assessment of the frontcourt completely. But I loves me some DWade.

3 quality starters vs. 1 quality starter + 2 second stringers

[KCattheStripe]

I got Knicks. I like their PG advantage, front court,  and bench more. I think SF is a draw. While Wade does have the SG advantage, I think Williams can control the pace of the series more then anyone else in this series.

His advantage at PG:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hinriki01&p2=willide01



My advantage at SG:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=wadedw01&p2=meeksjo01




West+Varejao+KMart >>> Duncan+Gibson+Turiaf

I disagree with that assessment of the frontcourt completely. But I loves me some DWade.

3 quality starters vs. 1 quality starter + 2 second stringers

1 guy you hope comes back as a quality starter, 1 guy who is a quality starter and one guy who even when he's healthy should be a bench player at this point in his career vs. 2 quality starters ( Gibson started at PF for a playoff team last year) and a solid bench option.

[KCattheStripe]

Correction: Gibson started on a playoff team 2 years ago.

[Roy H.]

Do folks really think that David West is going to go from 19/8/51% with good defense to a below-average starter?  Even after 1+ years to recover from surgery to a clean, minor tear of the ACL?

David West was the 52nd player taken this year, and was included in a trade for Tim Duncan and Luol Deng.  To see him now treated as being on par with Taj Gibson is surprising to me.  The two players aren't even close in my mind, and I'm a big Taj Gibson fan.  However, I'm a fan of him as a role player, not as a key starter on a championship-level team.

[KCattheStripe]

Do folks really think that David West is going to go from 19/8/51% with good defense to a below-average starter?  Even after 1+ years to recover from surgery to a clean, minor tear of the ACL?

At 31?  With no Chris Paul to make his life easier? I think his D will drop, especially without Okafor behind him and his PPG and boards will drop, yes.

[Roy H.]

Do folks really think that David West is going to go from 19/8/51% with good defense to a below-average starter?  Even after 1+ years to recover from surgery to a clean, minor tear of the ACL?

At 31?  With no Chris Paul to make his life easier? I think his D will drop, especially without Okafor behind him and his PPG and boards will drop, yes.

What on earth were you thinking with your Duncan trade, then?   Duncan + Deng for Horford and garbage?  You're much too astute to make that trade.  Gainesville must have some incriminating photographs.   

[KCattheStripe]

Do folks really think that David West is going to go from 19/8/51% with good defense to a below-average starter?  Even after 1+ years to recover from surgery to a clean, minor tear of the ACL?

At 31?  With no Chris Paul to make his life easier? I think his D will drop, especially without Okafor behind him and his PPG and boards will drop, yes.

What on earth were you thinking with your Duncan trade, then?   Duncan + Deng for Horford and garbage?  You're much too astute to make that trade.  Gainesville must have some incriminating photographs.   

I thought other people weren't as smart as me, and I could pawn him off for a quality SF. Unfortunately, we have some astute analysts of the league on this blog. That's why i fully expect the Celtics to win Team of the Future!

[Who]

My expectations for David West:

• To score 16-18ppg on a TS% of about 52-53% which I think will drop to about 50-51% in a playoff series against a tough defensive matchup (of which I think T.Gibson and New York qualifies)
• I also expect him to corral about 7.5-8.0 rebounds a contest in 35-38 minutes (well below average).
• I consider David West to be an average to slightly below average defender. I expect him to drop off to below average but serviceable defender. Taj Gibson is not a talented enough individual offensively to take advantage of this so this isn't a large issue in this matchup. On team defense, he'll be well protected by his teammates so the expected decline shouldn't be a large issue there either.

My evaluation of Taj Gibson

• I think Taj Gibson is a solid role player offensively who can give 10-12ppg in starters minutes on a TS% similar to David West.
• Taj Gibson is an above average rebounder who can grab 9-10 rebounds a contest in starter's minutes. Taj Gibson is also a very good shot blocker who can create turnovers and generate extra possessions for his team that way too.
• Taj Gibson is an above average defensive player who will help decrease David West's scoring efficiency + improve the Knicks team defense. That team defense, especially his pick and roll defense + transition defense + weak-side shot-blocking adds good value to the Knicks. A plus for Gibson.

So, I consider Taj Gibson to be the superior defensive player + possession creator and David West to be the superior offensive player but to score his points on a below average TS% and on a number similar (TS%) to his less talented offensive counterpart.

Given those expectations, in terms of overall contribution, I do not think David West has an advantage over Taj Gibson.

But that is just me talking and it is based on my expectations of David West suffering a decline in performance. Without that decline, this matchup is firmly in D.West's favour.