CB Draft Eastern Conference Finals: Sixers (1) Vs Knicks (4)

[Who]

I have Phily with a seven man rotation -- their starting five plus Barbosa and Kenyon -- with Bonner filling in situationally when the Sixers need better spacing.

Is that correct?

Yes, although Douglas might get some minutes depending on how he's played in the playoffs up to this point.  When Wade sits, Iguodala will be on the court, so Barbosa's offense won't be too needed.  Douglas is an equal shooter and better defender.

Don't sleep on the Wade/Barbosa/Iguodala lineup though.  Two of the most athletic players + possibly the fastest player in the NBA?  I don't think there's a team in this league that can keep up with them.

Yeah, I really like that trio. I also like a Hinrich, Barbosa and Wade trio while Iggy and Deng rests.

I wouldn't play Toney Douglas. I'm not as high on him as you are. I think he is a fairly average backup PG while I rate Barbosa as one of the best backup combo guards in the league. I think that offensive spark that Barbosa offers is a lot more valuable than what Douglas provides.

One of the things I like most about your team is that your starters can all play long minutes. Hinrich a 35-38 minute guy. Wade and Iggy can both play 40-42 minutes a night. Plus you got David West who can give 35-40 minutes a night (played 40mpg during the Hornets playoff run a few years ago) and Varejao who can play 34-36 minutes a contest.

With two wings who can play so many minutes and a PG who can log a lot of minutes ... I think you only need one guy to play the bulk of those backup minutes on the perimeter. That would give Barbosa anywhere from 22 to 29 minutes a night. Which is he is well capable of.

The Knicks don't have a backup SF capable of punishing a smaller perimeter group so using Wade at SF alongside a small backcourt (instead of J.Childress) looks your best lineup combination to me.

With Iggy's and Deng's minutes synced together. 

[mgent]

At the moment, I think the two forward positions are evenly matched and that Tim Duncan has a slight matchup advantage at the center position with Wade and Deron having matchup advantages against their opposite numbers.

Phily will have an advantage with their backup guard (Barbosa vs Dooling). I forget who their backup big men are. Need to check on that.

Um what?  What?  What?  What?  What?  What?  What?  What?

You better just be talking about SF because how in the world do Blair and Gibson match up with West and KMart?

As for SF, they have the same scoring, same rebounding, slight edge to Iggy in defense, and Iguodala is like 5 times the passer Deng is.  I think I've got that position too.  Here's your stats Kane.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=iguodan01&p2=denglu01

Thanks very much. I see this match-up still as a wash if minutes are the same. I don't really see an overall edge here for either. Great stats. Thanks mgent.

I really don't see one area of the game where Deng is better than Iguodala, however Iguodala is an unbelievably better passer.

Hate to resort to this debate when there are so many for the picking, but it's true.

[Who]

So where I am at now, in the starting lineups, I have New York with an advantage at PG and C while the two forward positions are even and Phily has an advantage with Wade at SG.

Off the bench, I think Phily also has two more advantages off the bench with their backup combo guard and their main backup big man.

In terms of coaching, I have NYC with the advantage. Thibodeau had an excellent first year and is one of the most promising coaches in the league while McHale is still an unknown commodity. Unproven.

[mgent]

I think he is a fairly average backup PG while I rate Barbosa as one of the best backup combo guards in the league. I think that offensive spark that Barbosa offers is a lot more valuable than what Douglas provides.

Fair enough.  I also think Barbosa is a better combo guard, Douglas will only be used if he's getting destroyed on defense (Toney is a very good defender in my opinion).

This isn't a team I'd be scared to use Wade at SF for 5-7 minutes against.  That was actually my plan too.

[mgent]

So where I am at now, in the starting lineups, I have New York with an advantage at PG and C while the two forward positions are even and Phily has an advantage with Wade at SG.

Off the bench, I think Phily also has two more advantages off the bench with their backup combo guard and their main backup big man.

In terms of coaching, I have NYC with the advantage. Thibodeau had an excellent first year and is one of the most promising coaches in the league while McHale is still an unknown commodity. Unproven.

Can you explain in what universe Gibson is even with West?

[Kane3387]

PG -  Adv Knicks

Hinrich actually tore it up against Deron the several times they've played.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hinriki01&p2=willide01

Looking at these stats the match-up has become much more one sided. I think Hinrich is as not as good as he was. Injuries have slowed him down a bit and D-Will has only gotten better.

I see this as a Huge Adv for NY as a PG.

The entire front court is coming off injury for Philly. West, Varejao, and Martin missed a ton of games last year. I know people disagree but I hate this front court and have for a while. I feel Duncan gets his 16 and 10 in this series. If Duncan is good enough to get his team past Randolph and Gasol then he is clearly not slowing down and is good enough against the Philly front  court still. I factor how teams did in previous series based on our votes in my analysis.

[Kane3387]

Very surprised, reading some of the comments. I get the impression that some are overthinking this and/or are looking for reasons to vote against the favorite. Either that or Taj Gibson, Jodie Meeks, and yes, the declining Tim Duncan are a lot better than I think they are.

To me, this is a mismatch in Philly's favor.

I don't think this thing is clear-cut by any means and I certainly don't think I'm overthinking it.  Its a genuinely tough matchup in my eyes.

Not surprised since you even thought the Bullets were better than the 6ers.

You personally, aren't over-thinking it, but some of these comments are ridiculous.  I mean the only argument I've had against my team for the past week is "a zone MIGHT slow down your offense for two minutes before your guys adjust, just like it would any team, and there's nothing two of the best slashing and passing wings in the game can do about it."

The Mavs played zone throughout the whole playoffs and won the title. The zone is effective. It worked against Miami and the Celtics were too proud to try it.

[Gainesville Celtic]

Simply put....I think the Sixers are just a better team and New York has way overachieved getting to this point.

Nuh-uh!! Knicks are better!

Philly is a very good team and this is a close series. But were gonna keep overachieving to the finals!!!!!

What type of production are you expecting out of Duncan, Deng, and Deron individually?

Sorry this will be short -- I'm in the Drs office waiting to hear our coming-in-Feb baby's heartbeat... Which is worth an extra vote or three

Dwill -- 25/4/12 -- has to step his game up and dominate for us to win
 
Deng -- 18/7/6 -- PHI has overstated AI2s advantage as a passer. Heis just called on to do it more w/o a PG like Rose or Williams. Denys passIng was key to CHIs offense

Duncan -- 13/9/4 -- Timmy digs deep with a final Finals run

[Kane3387]

I think Wade is a better player than Deron, and Iggy better than Deng though that one is close. Given Duncan's decline and the 76ers superior bench I think Philly has this one in a fairly standard five games. Two wins at home, split on the road, and they close them out.

How is Philly's bench superior?

[mgent]

PG -  Adv Knicks

Hinrich actually tore it up against Deron the several times they've played.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hinriki01&p2=willide01

Looking at these stats the match-up has become much more one sided. I think Hinrich is as not as good as he was. Injuries have slowed him down a bit and D-Will has only gotten better.

I see this as a Huge Adv for NY as a PG.

The entire front court is coming off injury for Philly. West, Varejao, and Martin missed a ton of games last year. I know people disagree but I hate this front court and have for a while. I feel Duncan gets his 16 and 10 in this series. If Duncan is good enough to get his team past Randolph and Gasol then he is clearly not slowing down and is good enough against the Philly front  court still. I factor how teams did in previous series based on our votes in my analysis.

Where were you when Duncan's #1 seed got bounced out of the first round by Randolph?  What makes you think his numbers will go up when he goes from 35 to 36?

[mgent]

Very surprised, reading some of the comments. I get the impression that some are overthinking this and/or are looking for reasons to vote against the favorite. Either that or Taj Gibson, Jodie Meeks, and yes, the declining Tim Duncan are a lot better than I think they are.

To me, this is a mismatch in Philly's favor.

I don't think this thing is clear-cut by any means and I certainly don't think I'm overthinking it.  Its a genuinely tough matchup in my eyes.

Not surprised since you even thought the Bullets were better than the 6ers.

You personally, aren't over-thinking it, but some of these comments are ridiculous.  I mean the only argument I've had against my team for the past week is "a zone MIGHT slow down your offense for two minutes before your guys adjust, just like it would any team, and there's nothing two of the best slashing and passing wings in the game can do about it."

The Mavs played zone throughout the whole playoffs and won the title. The zone is effective. It worked against Miami and the Celtics were too proud to try it.

You and SO must be blind.  Mavs played the zone what?  5% of the time?  Less?  How is that the whole playoffs?

To my knowledge, no team has ever gotten anywhere with the zone as their main strategy.  This isn't HS, I'm about fed up with this argument.

[Roy H.]

The Mavs played zone throughout the whole playoffs and won the title. The zone is effective. It worked against Miami and the Celtics were too proud to try it.

The Mavs played some zone, but they probably played it less than 20% of the time.  In fact, the Mavs used the zone in Game 1 of the Finals, and quickly went away from it because Lebron and Wade were successfully penetrating against it, and Chalmers was hitting outside shots.

Great passing beats a zone.  Wade, Iggy, and Hinrich are all very good passers.  Playing the zone against the 76ers is a recipe for failure.

I am honestly shocked that multiple astute observers on CelticsBlog believe than an NBA team could regularly employ the zone and have it work successfully, especially against a team that has the caliber of penetrators/passers that Philly has.

As a gimmick defense, sure, run it out there until the opposing team adjusts.  However, to rely on it heavily in a 7 game series is a terrible idea, in my opinion.

[Who]

So where I am at now, in the starting lineups, I have New York with an advantage at PG and C while the two forward positions are even and Phily has an advantage with Wade at SG.

Off the bench, I think Phily also has two more advantages off the bench with their backup combo guard and their main backup big man.

In terms of coaching, I have NYC with the advantage. Thibodeau had an excellent first year and is one of the most promising coaches in the league while McHale is still an unknown commodity. Unproven.

Can you explain in what universe Gibson is even with West?

It's the ACL injury. My feeling is that most players suffer from declines from that injury. Especially in their first year back it. I think a decline in performance is likely to happen.

CI think it'll negatively impact David West's agility and explosiveness and that that will hurt his scoring efficiency + defense.

I think that West's jump-shooting will be fine on stand still jumpers but that he'll have a tougher time on pick and pops. There is a lot of movement and changing of directions and only a small amount of time to get set and get off your shot. I think that will be tougher for him than before and that his FG% here will drop. Likewise, I think once you take away some explosiveness in his first step on post ups that, as an undersized PF, he'll have a tougher time creating quality shots in the paint and that he'll shoot a lower percentage there too.

Taj Gibson is already a superior rebounder and defender to David West. With my expected decline in David West's scoring efficiency, I think that matchup is about even.

----------------------------------------

I have to say I really dislike docking players for injuries or recovery from. It's an uncertain event.

However, in this case, I think it's the most likely event and a lot more likely to happen than not.

My impression of ACL injuries is that they are very serious and that players frequently suffer a decline in performance after them especially in that first year back. If I am wrong on that, I would be very happy to change my stance because, I like I said, I really dislike docking players over uncertain events.

[Kane3387]

PG -  Adv Knicks

Hinrich actually tore it up against Deron the several times they've played.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hinriki01&p2=willide01

Looking at these stats the match-up has become much more one sided. I think Hinrich is as not as good as he was. Injuries have slowed him down a bit and D-Will has only gotten better.

I see this as a Huge Adv for NY as a PG.

The entire front court is coming off injury for Philly. West, Varejao, and Martin missed a ton of games last year. I know people disagree but I hate this front court and have for a while. I feel Duncan gets his 16 and 10 in this series. If Duncan is good enough to get his team past Randolph and Gasol then he is clearly not slowing down and is good enough against the Philly front  court still. I factor how teams did in previous series based on our votes in my analysis.

Where were you when Duncan's #1 seed got bounced out of the first round by Randolph?  What makes you think his numbers will go up when he goes from 35 to 36?

Bc he beat this team in our league. I said that. In our league, if he is able to produce enough against them to win, then why wouldn't he be able to play better against your front court?

[Fafnir]

I think Wade is a better player than Deron, and Iggy better than Deng though that one is close. Given Duncan's decline and the 76ers superior bench I think Philly has this one in a fairly standard five games. Two wins at home, split on the road, and they close them out.

How is Philly's bench superior?

They have the best bench big man, Kenyon Martin. Superior to both Blair and Turiaf for New York. I think Splitter is also quality, so the two bench bigs who might be called upon most frequently Philly has the advantage.

They have the best backup guard in Barbosa. He's a superior player to Nick Young/Jodie Meeks whomever you consider the backup. I also like Toney Douglas at backup PG better than Dooling. Though I don't expect either to play very much.

The only area I like the Knicks bench more than 76ers is at SF (and the advantage is slight), and based on the given rotations I don't think this will come into play much.