CB Draft Eastern Conference Finals: Sixers (1) Vs Knicks (4)

[mgent]

PG -  Adv Knicks

Hinrich actually tore it up against Deron the several times they've played.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hinriki01&p2=willide01

Looking at these stats the match-up has become much more one sided. I think Hinrich is as not as good as he was. Injuries have slowed him down a bit and D-Will has only gotten better.

I see this as a Huge Adv for NY as a PG.

The entire front court is coming off injury for Philly. West, Varejao, and Martin missed a ton of games last year. I know people disagree but I hate this front court and have for a while. I feel Duncan gets his 16 and 10 in this series. If Duncan is good enough to get his team past Randolph and Gasol then he is clearly not slowing down and is good enough against the Philly front  court still. I factor how teams did in previous series based on our votes in my analysis.

Where were you when Duncan's #1 seed got bounced out of the first round by Randolph?  What makes you think his numbers will go up when he goes from 35 to 36?

Bc he beat this team in our league. I said that. In our league, if he is able to produce enough against them to win, then why wouldn't he be able to play better against your front court?

To you and action:  Duncan was definitely not the reason I thought the Knicks were better than the Pacers.

[Gainesville Celtic]

So where I am at now, in the starting lineups, I have New York with an advantage at PG and C while the two forward positions are even and Phily has an advantage with Wade at SG.

Off the bench, I think Phily also has two more advantages off the bench with their backup combo guard and their main backup big man.

In terms of coaching, I have NYC with the advantage. Thibodeau had an excellent first year and is one of the most promising coaches in the league while McHale is still an unknown commodity. Unproven.

Can you explain in what universe Gibson is even with West?

It's the ACL injury. My feeling is that most players suffer from declines from that injury. Especially in their first year back it. I think a decline in performance is likely to happen.

CI think it'll negatively impact David West's agility and explosiveness and that that will hurt his scoring efficiency + defense.

I think that West's jump-shooting will be fine on stand still jumpers but that he'll have a tougher time on pick and pops. There is a lot of movement and changing of directions and only a small amount of time to get set and get off your shot. I think that will be tougher for him than before and that his FG% here will drop. Likewise, I think once you take away some explosiveness in his first step on post ups that, as an undersized PF, he'll have a tougher time creating quality shots in the paint and that he'll shoot a lower percentage there too.

Taj Gibson is already a superior rebounder and defender to David West. With my expected decline in David West's scoring efficiency, I think that matchup is about even.

----------------------------------------

I have to say I really dislike docking players for injuries or recovery from. It's an uncertain event.

However, in this case, I think it's the most likely event and a lot more likely to happen than not.

My impression of ACL injuries is that they are very serious and that players frequently suffer a decline in performance after them especially in that first year back. If I am wrong on that, I would be very happy to change my stance because, I like I said, I really dislike docking players over uncertain events.

This was exactly -- in fact eeriliy so -- my thought process in finally accepting the trade offer of Duncan/Deng/Gibson for Horford/West/Jameer.

If West wasn't coming off an ACL there's NO WAY I would have traded him, but players coming back from that surgery are usually only a fraction (70%? 80%?) of what they were pre-injury in the first year back.

I have no question West returns to 99% of the player he was in his second season back --- and if this were a "keeper" league, I would keep him, no question.

But it's also unprecedented to think that in the history of ACL injuries David West -- no freak athlete himself -- will be the first player to show no ill effects.

[Gainesville Celtic]

PG -  Adv Knicks

Hinrich actually tore it up against Deron the several times they've played.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hinriki01&p2=willide01

Looking at these stats the match-up has become much more one sided. I think Hinrich is as not as good as he was. Injuries have slowed him down a bit and D-Will has only gotten better.

I see this as a Huge Adv for NY as a PG.

The entire front court is coming off injury for Philly. West, Varejao, and Martin missed a ton of games last year. I know people disagree but I hate this front court and have for a while. I feel Duncan gets his 16 and 10 in this series. If Duncan is good enough to get his team past Randolph and Gasol then he is clearly not slowing down and is good enough against the Philly front  court still. I factor how teams did in previous series based on our votes in my analysis.

Where were you when Duncan's #1 seed got bounced out of the first round by Randolph?  What makes you think his numbers will go up when he goes from 35 to 36?

Bc he beat this team in our league. I said that. In our league, if he is able to produce enough against them to win, then why wouldn't he be able to play better against your front court?

To you and action:  Duncan was definitely not the reason I thought the Knicks were better than the Pacers.

OK.... I'll bite... what was   

(and can you phrase your answer in the form of "NY is the best team in the East (and better than the Pacers and Sixers) because ______________")

thanks, here's a TP.


I do think that a wrinkle that would be fun is that we'd draft our own teams but then we'd have to argue for a different team.

[Gainesville Celtic]

You and SO must be blind.  Mavs played the zone what?  5% of the time?  Less?  How is that the whole playoffs?

To my knowledge, no team has ever gotten anywhere with the zone as their main strategy.  This isn't HS, I'm about fed up with this argument.

To my knowledge no one has ever won any votes in CBDraft by calling someone blind or comparing them (even tangently) to high school.

People tend to get fed up with that sort of thing, it detracts from the fun of this game.

I wasn't comparing him to high school.  I was saying that playing the zone anything more than sparingly is more of a high school basketball defense.

183% of our 13 players won state championships in High School... another advantage for the Fake Knicks!

[mgent]

So where I am at now, in the starting lineups, I have New York with an advantage at PG and C while the two forward positions are even and Phily has an advantage with Wade at SG.

Off the bench, I think Phily also has two more advantages off the bench with their backup combo guard and their main backup big man.

In terms of coaching, I have NYC with the advantage. Thibodeau had an excellent first year and is one of the most promising coaches in the league while McHale is still an unknown commodity. Unproven.

Can you explain in what universe Gibson is even with West?

It's the ACL injury. My feeling is that most players suffer from declines from that injury. Especially in their first year back it. I think a decline in performance is likely to happen.

CI think it'll negatively impact David West's agility and explosiveness and that that will hurt his scoring efficiency + defense.

I think that West's jump-shooting will be fine on stand still jumpers but that he'll have a tougher time on pick and pops. There is a lot of movement and changing of directions and only a small amount of time to get set and get off your shot. I think that will be tougher for him than before and that his FG% here will drop. Likewise, I think once you take away some explosiveness in his first step on post ups that, as an undersized PF, he'll have a tougher time creating quality shots in the paint and that he'll shoot a lower percentage there too.

Taj Gibson is already a superior rebounder and defender to David West. With my expected decline in David West's scoring efficiency, I think that matchup is about even.

----------------------------------------

I have to say I really dislike docking players for injuries or recovery from. It's an uncertain event.

However, in this case, I think it's the most likely event and a lot more likely to happen than not.

My impression of ACL injuries is that they are very serious and that players frequently suffer a decline in performance after them especially in that first year back. If I am wrong on that, I would be very happy to change my stance because, I like I said, I really dislike docking players over uncertain events.

West has not had a very big problem with injuries in the past (averaged 76 games the past 4 years) and isn't that old.  That plus the fact that his tear was about as clean as tears can be, I don't see why West should be docked THAT much for this injury.

We're talking about over a year removed from this injury (a year is typically the max recovery for an ACL no?).  Even if West only returns to 75% of his previous form, he's still got the advantage over the unproven starter Taj Gibson.  Heck even I start Martin, he's an equal defender and rebounder to Gibson, a better passer, and probably still more of an offensive threat.

As for getting open on a pick and pop, I don't think he'll have that big of a problem.  Especially with Dwyane Wade running it and most likely drawing the double.  West excels at getting off his shot.

[RebusRankin]

Fine how does a weaker bench (Bonner, Splitter, Douglas) affect Philly?

[mgent]

So where I am at now, in the starting lineups, I have New York with an advantage at PG and C while the two forward positions are even and Phily has an advantage with Wade at SG.

Off the bench, I think Phily also has two more advantages off the bench with their backup combo guard and their main backup big man.

In terms of coaching, I have NYC with the advantage. Thibodeau had an excellent first year and is one of the most promising coaches in the league while McHale is still an unknown commodity. Unproven.

Can you explain in what universe Gibson is even with West?

It's the ACL injury. My feeling is that most players suffer from declines from that injury. Especially in their first year back it. I think a decline in performance is likely to happen.

CI think it'll negatively impact David West's agility and explosiveness and that that will hurt his scoring efficiency + defense.

I think that West's jump-shooting will be fine on stand still jumpers but that he'll have a tougher time on pick and pops. There is a lot of movement and changing of directions and only a small amount of time to get set and get off your shot. I think that will be tougher for him than before and that his FG% here will drop. Likewise, I think once you take away some explosiveness in his first step on post ups that, as an undersized PF, he'll have a tougher time creating quality shots in the paint and that he'll shoot a lower percentage there too.

Taj Gibson is already a superior rebounder and defender to David West. With my expected decline in David West's scoring efficiency, I think that matchup is about even.

----------------------------------------

I have to say I really dislike docking players for injuries or recovery from. It's an uncertain event.

However, in this case, I think it's the most likely event and a lot more likely to happen than not.

My impression of ACL injuries is that they are very serious and that players frequently suffer a decline in performance after them especially in that first year back. If I am wrong on that, I would be very happy to change my stance because, I like I said, I really dislike docking players over uncertain events.

This was exactly -- in fact eeriliy so -- my thought process in finally accepting the trade offer of Duncan/Deng/Gibson for Horford/West/Jameer.

If West wasn't coming off an ACL there's NO WAY I would have traded him, but players coming back from that surgery are usually only a fraction (70%? 80%?) of what they were pre-injury in the first year back.

I have no question West returns to 99% of the player he was in his second season back --- and if this were a "keeper" league, I would keep him, no question.

But it's also unprecedented to think that in the history of ACL injuries David West -- no freak athlete himself -- will be the first player to show no ill effects.

Then why did you select him with the 4th pick in the 3rd round?  This is the playoffs not the beginning of the season, so isn't West pretty close to 99% in your eyes?

[Gainesville Celtic]

Did we mention that our team defense revolves around literally beheading Dwayne Wade?!!?

We think this will *cut*  his scoring and assists drastically; though we still expect him to be a plus rebounder and defender 

[Who]

So where I am at now, in the starting lineups, I have New York with an advantage at PG and C while the two forward positions are even and Phily has an advantage with Wade at SG.

Off the bench, I think Phily also has two more advantages off the bench with their backup combo guard and their main backup big man.

In terms of coaching, I have NYC with the advantage. Thibodeau had an excellent first year and is one of the most promising coaches in the league while McHale is still an unknown commodity. Unproven.

Can you explain in what universe Gibson is even with West?

It's the ACL injury. My feeling is that most players suffer from declines from that injury. Especially in their first year back it. I think a decline in performance is likely to happen.

CI think it'll negatively impact David West's agility and explosiveness and that that will hurt his scoring efficiency + defense.

I think that West's jump-shooting will be fine on stand still jumpers but that he'll have a tougher time on pick and pops. There is a lot of movement and changing of directions and only a small amount of time to get set and get off your shot. I think that will be tougher for him than before and that his FG% here will drop. Likewise, I think once you take away some explosiveness in his first step on post ups that, as an undersized PF, he'll have a tougher time creating quality shots in the paint and that he'll shoot a lower percentage there too.

Taj Gibson is already a superior rebounder and defender to David West. With my expected decline in David West's scoring efficiency, I think that matchup is about even.

----------------------------------------

I have to say I really dislike docking players for injuries or recovery from. It's an uncertain event.

However, in this case, I think it's the most likely event and a lot more likely to happen than not.

My impression of ACL injuries is that they are very serious and that players frequently suffer a decline in performance after them especially in that first year back. If I am wrong on that, I would be very happy to change my stance because, I like I said, I really dislike docking players over uncertain events.

This was exactly -- in fact eeriliy so -- my thought process in finally accepting the trade offer of Duncan/Deng/Gibson for Horford/West/Jameer.

If West wasn't coming off an ACL there's NO WAY I would have traded him, but players coming back from that surgery are usually only a fraction (70%? 80%?) of what they were pre-injury in the first year back.

I have no question West returns to 99% of the player he was in his second season back --- and if this were a "keeper" league, I would keep him, no question.

But it's also unprecedented to think that in the history of ACL injuries David West -- no freak athlete himself -- will be the first player to show no ill effects.

Then why did you select him with the 4th pick in the 3rd round?  This is the playoffs not the beginning of the season, so isn't West pretty close to 99% in your eyes?

It'll be the next season after a summer's full recuperation and a season under his belt that I would expect David West to reach his peak level post-injury.

[mgent]

Fine how does a weaker bench (Bonner, Splitter, Douglas) affect Philly?

It's stronger first of all:

Douglas > Dooling
Barbosa > Meeks/Young
Childress =/> Daye
KMart > Gibson/Blair
Splitter > Turiaf

Second of all, it wouldn't matter much since the starters are getting most of the minutes.

[Gainesville Celtic]

So where I am at now, in the starting lineups, I have New York with an advantage at PG and C while the two forward positions are even and Phily has an advantage with Wade at SG.

Off the bench, I think Phily also has two more advantages off the bench with their backup combo guard and their main backup big man.

In terms of coaching, I have NYC with the advantage. Thibodeau had an excellent first year and is one of the most promising coaches in the league while McHale is still an unknown commodity. Unproven.

Can you explain in what universe Gibson is even with West?

It's the ACL injury. My feeling is that most players suffer from declines from that injury. Especially in their first year back it. I think a decline in performance is likely to happen.

CI think it'll negatively impact David West's agility and explosiveness and that that will hurt his scoring efficiency + defense.

I think that West's jump-shooting will be fine on stand still jumpers but that he'll have a tougher time on pick and pops. There is a lot of movement and changing of directions and only a small amount of time to get set and get off your shot. I think that will be tougher for him than before and that his FG% here will drop. Likewise, I think once you take away some explosiveness in his first step on post ups that, as an undersized PF, he'll have a tougher time creating quality shots in the paint and that he'll shoot a lower percentage there too.

Taj Gibson is already a superior rebounder and defender to David West. With my expected decline in David West's scoring efficiency, I think that matchup is about even.

----------------------------------------

I have to say I really dislike docking players for injuries or recovery from. It's an uncertain event.

However, in this case, I think it's the most likely event and a lot more likely to happen than not.

My impression of ACL injuries is that they are very serious and that players frequently suffer a decline in performance after them especially in that first year back. If I am wrong on that, I would be very happy to change my stance because, I like I said, I really dislike docking players over uncertain events.

This was exactly -- in fact eeriliy so -- my thought process in finally accepting the trade offer of Duncan/Deng/Gibson for Horford/West/Jameer.

If West wasn't coming off an ACL there's NO WAY I would have traded him, but players coming back from that surgery are usually only a fraction (70%? 80%?) of what they were pre-injury in the first year back.

I have no question West returns to 99% of the player he was in his second season back --- and if this were a "keeper" league, I would keep him, no question.

But it's also unprecedented to think that in the history of ACL injuries David West -- no freak athlete himself -- will be the first player to show no ill effects.

Then why did you select him with the 4th pick in the 3rd round?  This is the playoffs not the beginning of the season, so isn't West pretty close to 99% in your eyes?

It'll be the next season after a summer's full recuperation and a season under his belt that I would expect David West to reach his peak level post-injury.

^^ exactly right.

i think you're missing my point Mgent. I took West (in part b/c Deng & Nene were swiped in the picks right before me) knowing full well that i'd have to accept the argument in the playoffs that he'd still be 75% back to full strenght from his ACL surgery.

I absolutely would have accepted (if not preemptively made) that argument if I'd kept West.

But I also took him knowing he was (a) the best fit for my team and (b) still held the most value should I try and trade up for a star later in the draft.

I see no contradictions there.

[mgent]

So where I am at now, in the starting lineups, I have New York with an advantage at PG and C while the two forward positions are even and Phily has an advantage with Wade at SG.

Off the bench, I think Phily also has two more advantages off the bench with their backup combo guard and their main backup big man.

In terms of coaching, I have NYC with the advantage. Thibodeau had an excellent first year and is one of the most promising coaches in the league while McHale is still an unknown commodity. Unproven.

Can you explain in what universe Gibson is even with West?

It's the ACL injury. My feeling is that most players suffer from declines from that injury. Especially in their first year back it. I think a decline in performance is likely to happen.

CI think it'll negatively impact David West's agility and explosiveness and that that will hurt his scoring efficiency + defense.

I think that West's jump-shooting will be fine on stand still jumpers but that he'll have a tougher time on pick and pops. There is a lot of movement and changing of directions and only a small amount of time to get set and get off your shot. I think that will be tougher for him than before and that his FG% here will drop. Likewise, I think once you take away some explosiveness in his first step on post ups that, as an undersized PF, he'll have a tougher time creating quality shots in the paint and that he'll shoot a lower percentage there too.

Taj Gibson is already a superior rebounder and defender to David West. With my expected decline in David West's scoring efficiency, I think that matchup is about even.

----------------------------------------

I have to say I really dislike docking players for injuries or recovery from. It's an uncertain event.

However, in this case, I think it's the most likely event and a lot more likely to happen than not.

My impression of ACL injuries is that they are very serious and that players frequently suffer a decline in performance after them especially in that first year back. If I am wrong on that, I would be very happy to change my stance because, I like I said, I really dislike docking players over uncertain events.

This was exactly -- in fact eeriliy so -- my thought process in finally accepting the trade offer of Duncan/Deng/Gibson for Horford/West/Jameer.

If West wasn't coming off an ACL there's NO WAY I would have traded him, but players coming back from that surgery are usually only a fraction (70%? 80%?) of what they were pre-injury in the first year back.

I have no question West returns to 99% of the player he was in his second season back --- and if this were a "keeper" league, I would keep him, no question.

But it's also unprecedented to think that in the history of ACL injuries David West -- no freak athlete himself -- will be the first player to show no ill effects.

Then why did you select him with the 4th pick in the 3rd round?  This is the playoffs not the beginning of the season, so isn't West pretty close to 99% in your eyes?

It'll be the next season after a summer's full recuperation and a season under his belt that I would expect David West to reach his peak level post-injury.

I think most of the time players are close to peak level post-injury 1 1/4 years later, if they're going to recover at all.  Some players (Tony Allen) return to the court a full half year sooner than that.  And returning to pre-injury form is far from unheard of.

Again, it was a clean tear with a very optimistic recovery time and recovery level.

[mgent]

Did we mention that our team defense revolves around literally beheading Dwayne Wade?!!?

We think this will *cut*  his scoring and assists drastically; though we still expect him to be a plus rebounder and defender 

Did I mention how good Dwyane Wade is at dislocating the elbows of star PGs in the playoffs?

[RebusRankin]

Fine how does a weaker bench (Bonner, Splitter, Douglas) affect Philly?

It's stronger first of all:

Douglas > Dooling
Barbosa > Meeks/Young
Childress =/> Daye
KMart > Gibson/Blair
Splitter > Turiaf

Second of all, it wouldn't matter much since the starters are getting most of the minutes.

I can see the starters getting the majority of minutes but KMart was hurt again this past year and frankly Gibson and Blair are better, Daye played better than Childress who looked lost after being overseas. Meeks and Young both showed more than Barbossa. Turiaf more than Splitter. I concede Douglas over Dooling.

[Gainesville Celtic]

Did we mention that our team defense revolves around literally beheading Dwayne Wade?!!?

We think this will *cut*   his scoring and assists drastically; though we still expect him to be a plus rebounder and defender  

Did I mention how good Dwyane Wade is at dislocating the elbows of star PGs in the playoffs?

verrrrry good point. so long Jodie Meeks!

I think most of the time players are close to peak level post-injury 1 1/4 years later, if they're going to recover at all.  Some players (Tony Allen) return to the court a full half year sooner than that.  And returning to pre-injury form is far from unheard of.

Again, it was a clean tear with a very optimistic recovery time.

Amare missed all of 2005-06 with the ACL and it took him 1/2 of 06-07 to get back to being "Amare"

I don't think Who and I are saying it will take West 1.5-2 years to get back on the court (all indications are that West woudl be ready for the NBA season come NOV/DEC of this year) but that his play/effectiveness/athleticism will be limited while he gets back the strength/agility in his knee.