2011 CelticsBlog Draft Board

[wdleehi]

The Bullets are open to any trade offer.

McGrady for Delonte

just because

[Who]

So I'm wondering...how do I treat Derrick Williams?

When I was trying to add Derrick Williams to my team ... my expectations were:

I was going to use him solely as a SF and I was looking to him to provide about 18-20ppg (starter's minutes) on an average to slightly below average TS% (53-54%) who does well turnover wise  + with average rebounding + poor defense (individual and team defense).

At PF, a slight dip lower scoring (17-18ppg) with comparable efficiency + a large dip in rebounding (out-rebounded by his opponent on a regular basis) + poor all-round defense.

[Kane3387]

So I'm doing my annual "projections" spreadsheet (where I figure out a depth chart w/minutes, then see what players would produce with a different # mins played.

So I'm wondering...how do I treat Derrick Williams?

I already took his college production and lopped off 10% immediately from everything including FG%.

But the guy shot 59% in college! Is 53% low enough?

I want to say no, but look at the facts...the guy was the most efficient jumpshooter, one of the best at scoring inside, and shot 50%+ from behind the 3pt line on 2 attempts a game!

What was the primary position he played in College? You have him playing a lot of three, right? Scoring and getting his jumper off on college PFs will be entirely different then scoring on NBA SFs. What did Beasley's shooting %s look like from college to his first year in the NBA? I think that could serve as some help for a baseline.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Boston:

PG: Jrue Holliday / Jameer Nelson / Rodney Stuckey
SG: Eric Gordon / Gerald Henderson
SF: James Jones / Jan Vesley
PF: David West / Greg Monroe / Darrel Arthur  
C:  Al Horford / Donatus Montejunas

Is that right?

Holiday/Nelson/Stuckey
Gordon/Stuckey/Henderson
Jones/Vesley/ henderson
Horford/ West/ Arthur
Monroe/Horford/ Gray/ Montejunas.

I'd just like to point out that the same GM that hates the way I put together a team is now running out three-fifths of the 2010 New Orleans Buccaneers. Here's hoping Greg Monroe and James Jones earn you better than my 8th seed and worst blow out of the 1st round.

Jrue Holiday
Eric Gordon
Gerald Wallace
Al Horford
DeMarcus Cousins

Pretty sure my big objection was Cousins and I'm pretty sure that held out to be true. He certainly wasn't the center of a lot of praise this year.

Well, I guess we disagree about 28 mpg, 14 points, 9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, awful efficiency, plenty of mean mugging from a fifth starter. But is the difference between Monroe and Cousins or David West and Gerald Wallace going to elevate your team above an 8th seed and first round out in a much smaller league? Or do you want to go ahead and admit that you love the Bucs in hindsight?

P.S. I like what you did there.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Josh Childress didn't get drafted, right?

What does Josh Childress do that Jonas Jerebko doesn't do at SF?

Seems redundant.

He plays the 2 guard.

About as well as Jerebko can.

I just flat out do not believe that. Childress is quicker, he's got experience there, and he's a better ball handler.

I could be persuaded otherwise, but that's not my impression. In fact I'm currently of the opinion that Childress looked a lot better as an undersized 4 for Atlanta than he did last season as a lost at sea two guard in Phoenix.

But I do love the Jerebko pick. You can't win them all.

[The Walker Wiggle]

So I'm wondering...how do I treat Derrick Williams?

When I was trying to add Derrick Williams to my team ... my expectations were:

I was going to use him solely as a SF and I was looking to him to provide about 18-20ppg (starter's minutes) on an average to slightly below average TS% (53-54%) who does well turnover wise  + with average rebounding + poor defense (individual and team defense).

At PF, a slight dip lower scoring (17-18ppg) with comparable efficiency + a large dip in rebounding (out-rebounded by his opponent on a regular basis) + poor all-round defense.

For what it's worth Kevin Pelton projects:

Derrick Williams: 28.0 mpg, 13.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.1 apg and a 3PT% in the high 30s.

[indeedproceed]

So I'm wondering...how do I treat Derrick Williams?

When I was trying to add Derrick Williams to my team ... my expectations were:

I was going to use him solely as a SF and I was looking to him to provide about 18-20ppg (starter's minutes) on an average to slightly below average TS% (53-54%) who does well turnover wise  + with average rebounding + poor defense (individual and team defense).

At PF, a slight dip lower scoring (17-18ppg) with comparable efficiency + a large dip in rebounding (out-rebounded by his opponent on a regular basis) + poor all-round defense.

For what it's worth Kevin Pelton projects:

Derrick Williams: 28.0 mpg, 13.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.1 apg and a 3PT% in the high 30s.

Can I get a link? That looks helpful.

[indeedproceed]

Also, I'm looking for the average # of posessions per 49 minutes from a nba team. TP if some1 could help me out.

[Who]

Also, I'm looking for the average # of posessions per 49 minutes from a nba team. TP if some1 could help me out.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

That "pace" stat is on the far right. Has the league-wide average.

[indeedproceed]

Also, I'm looking for the average # of posessions per 49 minutes from a nba team. TP if some1 could help me out.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

That "pace" stat is on the far right. Has the league-wide average.

Yeah I shouldn't have said per 48 mins. I meant total possessions. POSS.

[Gainesville Celtic]

So you didn't mean this?

This is the one downside/blindspot of the CB Draft IMO.... unchanging views of players with bad habits. Once people don't like a player he's tainted forever. Glad Red didn't think that way about guys like DJ or Parrish (and no i'm not comparing Nick Young to either HOF'er, calm down.... )

Yes I meant that.

I meant that generally speaking in the CB Draft discussions, people's views (my own included) on players -- especially those with habits deemed "bad" -- seem to be slow to change... if at all.

(I think back to my friend Rob's zine My Views Change Over Time... simple but powerful b/c we all don't acknowledge that enough.)

I also said/implied later that specifically with Nick Young I thought that's what was happening. This also by definition means that we disagree to some degree on the evaluation of Young.

What i didn't say was that if we disagree it's always because the person i'm disagreeing with can't see the subtle changes in a players game....

Reasonable people can reasonably disagree about the pluses and minuses in a player's game. I hope it was not taken that I was trying to argue both sides of the coin and that this makes my thoughts a bit clearer.

TPs all around... Ubuntu.



PS. If other teams are doing scientific-projections factoring in pace (math that I probably can't even figure out any more  ) the whole thing is moot... cuz our boat will be sunk! 

[Rondo2287]

I think understanding peoples views on players and stigmas surrounding players is part of the fun of this game, especially for us seasoned managers.

Like I knew not to touch Blatche with a 12 foot pole even though he puts up good stats.

Like IP knew I would get a kick out of it when he said Afflalo was the best pick of a round.

And Like Roy loves every player on Edgar's teams.   

Its what makes the CB Draft go round.

[Fafnir]

So you did mean it, okay.

I stand by it Nick Young hasn't changed at all. He got to play more minutes and take more shots. Now he'll get less minutes and less shots. Look at his stats, almost exactly the same ast two years ago and slightly better than last year. The only difference is he got more minutes.

I still really like the Knicks, I just don't think the trade was a good one.

[Roy H.]

And Like Roy loves every player on Edgar's teams.   

Haha.  Not this year.  I've never been much of a Monta Ellis fan, nor do I like Jamison at this stage of his career (especially next to Brand).  Plus, you may have noticed Edgar added AK47, who I've never been accused of being overly kind to.

I think Edgar's trade brought greater balance to his team, but I don't like his squad as much as I have in year's past.

[Fafnir]

Also, I'm looking for the average # of posessions per 49 minutes from a nba team. TP if some1 could help me out.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

That "pace" stat is on the far right. Has the league-wide average.

Yeah I shouldn't have said per 48 mins. I meant total possessions. POSS.

Total possessions would naturally be 48 minutes, nothing wrong with your statement.