Ongoing NFL draft chat

[Eja117]

If Bowers falls as far as walterfootball says he would (24) I wouldnt be surprised to see BB take him at 18.  I think BB believes in results in college alot more than measurables as the combine.

I think Bowers has "El Busto" written all over him.  

People were saying the same thing about Brandon Spikes after he fell from a first to a projected 3rd rounder

My understanding was that Spikes' fall was due more to character concerns as well as less than stellar scouting metrics.  

Also, Spikes was an ILB while Bowers is a DE/OLB.  Different positions so I really don't see much of a correlation.  Bowers & Spikes have much different games.  

Both were considered to be high first rounders and then had huge drops. Both had incredible production at their positions despite less than great measurables at the combine.  

You don't see a correlation???

Bowers has or had been projected as the first overall pick in some mock drafts.  Show me a respected mock draft from last year that had Spikes in the Top 15 or even Top 20.  Bowers could be poised to take an Aaron Rodgers-esque type drop.  Spikes didn't approach that.  He was taken pretty close to where people had him all along.

So are you trying to say that Bowers will turn out like Spikes hence your comparison? 'Cause I'm not seeing it and I'm not sure how you chose to make that particular comparison when they play different positions.


EDIT: Bowers has generated a significantly more amount of hype for the draft than Spikes ever did.

Summary: Brandon Spikes is the prototypical 3-4 inside linebacker, but at this point I am not sold on him being the top-20 2010 NFL Draft pick most are hyping him as. He has a few technique flaws that really concern me, but he might improve those next season.

Walter football, "most people hyping him as a top 20 pick"  

And who exactly were most people besides the hearsay?

Unfortunately i cannot access any of the older version of the mock drafts that prior to his senior season had him as a top 20 pick because they have all moved on.  But I can guarentee you he had a drop from top 20 to third round.

And why you don't believe Walterfootball who backs up exactly what i say is beyong me.  I think its pretty safe to assume im right on this one

I guess I can settle this.  My memory of this was similar to Rondo's, but my initial research on line was not supporting that.  No way on Earth I admit I'm wrong that easy so I went to the basement and got my Lindy's Sports draft mag from that year and my Sporting News draft mag from last year too.  

results

I'm pretty sure both mags came out I think in late Feb or early March.

Sporting News had Spikes going #15 to NY Giants

Two other Sporting News writers Clifton Brown and Matt Hayes made first round mocks

Hayes had Spikes going 14 to Seattle

Brown had him nowhere in the 1rst. It may be notable that Brown had a horrid mock with Bradford going 4th, Arelious Benn going 21, and Gerald McCoy going #1.

The magazine itself rated him the #23 prospect. They put Donald Butler of Washington ahead of him and Rolando McClain a spot behind.

Lindy's had him 4th in the 2nd round to Kansas City. They rated him the 40th prospect overall and gave him a 1rst round grade, also ranking him 2nd best ILB behind McClain.

I'm guessing over time he slipped a bit so by draft day very few had him in the top 20.


And there we have it. You were both right and you were both wrong

Do you know if these mocks were before the combine?  Because I think that was the turning point for him.  He put up really slow numbers there, which killed his stock (despite the fact he was a monster on the field).

I think it's sort of a dirty little secret that these mags come out just a little before the combine. Maybe they want to sell them to 3000 NFL evaluators.   They come out after the Senior Bowl.  That I'm almost certain of

[Eja117]

I guess I can settle this.  My memory of this was similar to Rondo's, but my initial research on line was not supporting that.  No way on Earth I admit I'm wrong that easy so I went to the basement and got my Lindy's Sports draft mag from that year and my Sporting News draft mag from last year too.  

results

I'm pretty sure both mags came out I think in late Feb or early March.

Sporting News had Spikes going #15 to NY Giants

Two other Sporting News writers Clifton Brown and Matt Hayes made first round mocks

Hayes had Spikes going 14 to Seattle

Brown had him nowhere in the 1rst. It may be notable that Brown had a horrid mock with Bradford going 4th, Arelious Benn going 21, and Gerald McCoy going #1.

The magazine itself rated him the #23 prospect. They put Donald Butler of Washington ahead of him and Rolando McClain a spot behind.

Lindy's had him 4th in the 2nd round to Kansas City. They rated him the 40th prospect overall and gave him a 1rst round grade, also ranking him 2nd best ILB behind McClain.

I'm guessing over time he slipped a bit so by draft day very few had him in the top 20.


And there we have it. You were both right and you were both wrong

TP for all the good research.

I'd be curious about your take on the updated (as of 4/21) "big boards" at walterfootball: http://walterfootball.com/draft2011teamboards_1.php

New results have Pats selecting Anthony Castonzo at #17 (Cameron Jordan is off the board in this update, and the Pats pass on JJ Watt bc of his agent Condon) and Ingram at #28.

I like it.  I think it reflects that they have a value for Ingram, but he's lower because they have the Law Firm and don't need him so bad.  It also reflects that they like several guys, thereby giving them incentive to trade down like they do a lot.  I also buy that their top guys are a mix of offensive and defensive guys.

Granted this is all logic, and common logic was blown away last year when they picked McCourty


One thing I'm not buying in any mock is the Bills and Cards taking position players over QBs.  The Cards in particular need one badly.  If they really aren't sold on the value of those QBs I'd think they'd trade back to #10 or so, unless they are really targeting guys high in the 2nd round, which I admit also makes a lot of sense.

I think their top 8 looks kind of accurate. I'd say the QBs, WRs, and DTs all look like impact guys that are needed and wanted.  

I'm not sure I buy Bowers in the first round, or especially in the high first. I think we learned a lesson with Sergio Kindle on that last year.

I absolutely buy Newton #1.  If he fails what will people say?  Nobody wanted him that high? He wasn't athletic? He didn't accomplish everything possible in a short time in a great school. It reminds me of the Eli Manning pick.  If he fails with you it's not the end of the world. It shows you're trying and doing everything you can. If he succeeds somewhere else, especially if your guy fails what would people say then?  You left a Manning on the board?  You couldn't tell he was pretty good?  He'll sell lots of jerseys. He'll energize the franchise.  I feel like he's a must pick.  I definitely don't think you pick a fat azz lineman over him or something. Maaayyybbeee you trade down and still get a great great player and then pick a QB high in the 2nd round, but we have that pick.  Maaayyybbeee they trade down and get like a Patrick Paterson and a Ryan Mallet or someone not named Locker or do something creative and get two top defensive guys on the line and then get a Colin Kaepernick or Ponder later if you really believe in him, but I don't think they should get too cute.

[Cman]

I absolutely buy Newton #1.  If he fails what will people say?  Nobody wanted him that high? He wasn't athletic? He didn't accomplish everything possible in a short time in a great school. It reminds me of the Eli Manning pick.  If he fails with you it's not the end of the world. It shows you're trying and doing everything you can. If he succeeds somewhere else, especially if your guy fails what would people say then?  You left a Manning on the board?  You couldn't tell he was pretty good?  He'll sell lots of jerseys. He'll energize the franchise.  I feel like he's a must pick.  I definitely don't think you pick a fat azz lineman over him or something. Maaayyybbeee you trade down and still get a great great player and then pick a QB high in the 2nd round, but we have that pick.  Maaayyybbeee they trade down and get like a Patrick Paterson and a Ryan Mallet or someone not named Locker or do something creative and get two top defensive guys on the line and then get a Colin Kaepernick or Ponder later if you really believe in him, but I don't think they should get too cute.

Fantastic logic.  I hadn't thought much about picks beyond what the Pats might be doing, but what you say makes a ton of sense.

[Eja117]

I'm not buying Evan Royster falling to the 7th round with Noel Divine.

I think the need for QBs will be greater than the mock suggests.  

I like Herzlich going to the Pats late in the draft.

I like seeing the Pats address the O-line in the 2nd round. It makes sense that they would do that in the 2nd rather than the first. I don't buy Ingram to the Pats with their 2nd first rounder. I think he'll be long gone by then and they'd rather get someone like Demeco in the 3rd or something.

I admit the CB pick in the 3rd makes some sense

I think the late round WR pick makes some sense, but don't expect impact there. A guy like that might be more of a special teams guy and a flier.  They used a 3rd rounder there and Brandon Tate isn't done yet.

I can't understand why I'm the only person on the planet that likes QB Ricky Dobbs out of Navy

[Eja117]

I absolutely buy Newton #1.  If he fails what will people say?  Nobody wanted him that high? He wasn't athletic? He didn't accomplish everything possible in a short time in a great school. It reminds me of the Eli Manning pick.  If he fails with you it's not the end of the world. It shows you're trying and doing everything you can. If he succeeds somewhere else, especially if your guy fails what would people say then?  You left a Manning on the board?  You couldn't tell he was pretty good?  He'll sell lots of jerseys. He'll energize the franchise.  I feel like he's a must pick.  I definitely don't think you pick a fat azz lineman over him or something. Maaayyybbeee you trade down and still get a great great player and then pick a QB high in the 2nd round, but we have that pick.  Maaayyybbeee they trade down and get like a Patrick Paterson and a Ryan Mallet or someone not named Locker or do something creative and get two top defensive guys on the line and then get a Colin Kaepernick or Ponder later if you really believe in him, but I don't think they should get too cute.

Fantastic logic.  I hadn't thought much about picks beyond what the Pats might be doing, but what you say makes a ton of sense.

If he seems like 85% of Sam Bradford by the end of the year people will immediately forget the Claussen and Tony Pike picks last year.  They'll want to get a good QB this year, because they totally whiffed on not one, but TWO QBs last year.

[Cman]

I absolutely buy Newton #1.  If he fails what will people say?  Nobody wanted him that high? He wasn't athletic? He didn't accomplish everything possible in a short time in a great school. It reminds me of the Eli Manning pick.  If he fails with you it's not the end of the world. It shows you're trying and doing everything you can. If he succeeds somewhere else, especially if your guy fails what would people say then?  You left a Manning on the board?  You couldn't tell he was pretty good?  He'll sell lots of jerseys. He'll energize the franchise.  I feel like he's a must pick.  I definitely don't think you pick a fat azz lineman over him or something. Maaayyybbeee you trade down and still get a great great player and then pick a QB high in the 2nd round, but we have that pick.  Maaayyybbeee they trade down and get like a Patrick Paterson and a Ryan Mallet or someone not named Locker or do something creative and get two top defensive guys on the line and then get a Colin Kaepernick or Ponder later if you really believe in him, but I don't think they should get too cute.

Fantastic logic.  I hadn't thought much about picks beyond what the Pats might be doing, but what you say makes a ton of sense.

If he seems like 85% of Sam Bradford by the end of the year people will immediately forget the Claussen and Tony Pike picks last year.  They'll want to get a good QB this year, because they totally whiffed on not one, but TWO QBs last year.

...and they're probably thinking, "what're the odds we'll whiff again?"

[Eja117]

I think the Jags totally totally missed on Tebow last year, which to me is unforgivable for a few reasons.

1. They needed a QB

2. He would have sold for them an incredible amount of tix and jerseys

3. Nobody would have faulted them for it in their fan base

4. The player they picked was an out of left field pick. They might have gotten him in the 2nd rnd anyway

It makes me think they're angling to be the franchise headed to LA.

If they had drafted Tebow it would be like the Pats drafting Flutie only more popular, bigger, and more accomplished.

If I had been them I'd have attended the Senior Bowl and said "That wasn't what we were hoping for"

then at the combine I'd have said "We wish he had thrown"

Then at the Florida pro day I'd have said "There are a lot of great athletes at Florida"

Then I would have secretly called his agent and been like "Would he actually like to play here? Would he stay here in the off season other than maybe 3 weeks to do his mission in the Philipines? Does he understand he's totally different than other guys and we need to protect that investment and will want to drug test him frequently?"

Then I'd have traded down a few slots and picked him 19th and surrounded him with as much offensive help as possible.

None of this Jimmy Claussen stuff. At some point you're trying to entertain.

Now they have the same opportunity with Christian Ponder of FSU.  I wonder if they'll try it or just go a different route. I think they got real lucky with their top pick last year.

I think the Vikings are in a must-draft-a-QB mode and will have some problems. They could trade up the way the Jets did with Sanchez, but there are lots of teams that need QBs.

I think there might be a run on QBs. In a normal year you could try to swing a trade for a Chad Henne or something, but this year with the lockout you can't.  So some team like the Vikes may try to trade up and not only can't but teams above them might say "Offer me something decent or I'll take your guy" and the Vikes will respond "You have absolutely no idea who my guy is and if you take him I'll take yours"

It will be interesting to see. They'll probably use more time than the clock allows like they did two years in a row when they had troubles reading, writing, and telling time. I was at that draft and I'm still mad about it. Make the [dang] pick. Hooked on phonics!

[Donoghus]

I'm really not enamored with this QB class.  I am intrigued by Dalton, though. 

[Eja117]

After reading something in Sporting News and something by John Clayton there has been some good thoughts put out about this year's QB class.

1... Teams might be more scared of Newton than we thought.   He's not tons more athletic than Locker or Vince Young or Jamarcus Russel was and how did that turn out?  There is only one QB in college that ran as much as him that panned out and that was Mike Vick and even that took forever. The jury is still out on Tebow, but he had intangibles through the roof. 

2.  Gabbert might be the better choice.  This comes from John Clayton and here is the reasoning. Newton is sorta boom or bust.  Gabbert might just be good. But good at the QB position is great.  The example is Mark Sanchez.  He's not perfect. He's not even great. But he stabilized the position and gave his team a great chance to win and did so. 

3.  After reading something in Sporting News I suddenly remembered....the Panthers didn't want Cam Newton or anyone else. They wanted Andrew Luck.  A bunch of years ago the same guys running this draft opted for Julius Peppers over Joey Harrington and didn't try to trade up for David Carr and swear they wouldn't have taken him.  They just picked two QBs last year. They may try to take the best guy like Fairley or the Bama DT or Patrick Peterson and trade down to do it. That might give them picks next year, and then they can go for Luck next year.  And they might very well get him even if they don't get the top pick. At one point Leinart was going to go #1 over Alex Smith. He stayed in school and slipped to 10.  Maybe the Panthers should just skip these guys. They can draft someone like Jerrod Johnson in the 7th and throw him in the mix if they want and watch the young guys compete and grow. They could also take something on offense to help their young guys. Trade down and get a top OT, which almost always pans out.

[Eja117]

I like this from espn about the pats draft

Dream scenario: The Patriots hold three of the top 32 picks and two selections in each of the first three rounds. They'll gladly listen to every trade offer and definitely will field some calls. Bill Belichick's dream scenario is to have maximized value when they've made their final selection. If that means collecting more picks and still landing players they like, then so be it. If that means moving up in the order for a specific player and not having to give up much to do so, then so be it. If that means standing pat and making the best pick off their in-house draft board, then so be it.

Plan B: The Patriots have so many picks that they have more than a Plan B. However the draft shakes out, they'll have a Plan Z, Article XXXIV, Section 16, Subsection vii -- and an appendix with 23 more sets of instructions. No other front office enters the draft process with such flexibility.

[Neurotic Guy]

I am excited about this draft, but I know next to nothing about college football.   Can someone provide a quick "Watch the NFL Draft as a Pats Fan for Dummy's" course? 

What I want to know is the scenario to root for over the 1st round (or at least the top 16) that you think puts the Pats in the best position for bargaining and selecting. SO, are there particular names that I want to see fall or get selected early that will bode well for the Pats?  Is there a particular position that I want to see (or don't want to see) a run on prior to the Pats selections that would impact their control over getting maximimum value? 

This thread is an opportunity for those in the know to really educate folks like me in advance of the draft -- I look forward to reading your opinions.

[Eja117]

I am excited about this draft, but I know next to nothing about college football.   Can someone provide a quick "Watch the NFL Draft as a Pats Fan for Dummy's" course?  

What I want to know is the scenario to root for over the 1st round (or at least the top 16) that you think puts the Pats in the best position for bargaining and selecting. SO, are there particular names that I want to see fall or get selected early that will bode well for the Pats?  Is there a particular position that I want to see (or don't want to see) a run on prior to the Pats selections that would impact their control over getting maximimum value?  

This thread is an opportunity for those in the know to really educate folks like me in advance of the draft -- I look forward to reading your opinions.

I would say it would be good if there's a bit of a run on QBs. The Pats don't need one and it might be good if a team would offer something good to trade up and get one so they don't miss out.  I also don't see them taking a DB unless that Prince guy slips, which might be good

I think you don't want to see linemen getting picked. If that happens the Pats might have to trade up.

[beantownboy171]

I am excited about this draft, but I know next to nothing about college football.   Can someone provide a quick "Watch the NFL Draft as a Pats Fan for Dummy's" course? 

What I want to know is the scenario to root for over the 1st round (or at least the top 16) that you think puts the Pats in the best position for bargaining and selecting. SO, are there particular names that I want to see fall or get selected early that will bode well for the Pats?  Is there a particular position that I want to see (or don't want to see) a run on prior to the Pats selections that would impact their control over getting maximimum value? 

This thread is an opportunity for those in the know to really educate folks like me in advance of the draft -- I look forward to reading your opinions.

17th Overall Selection

Guys To See Fall:
Robert Quinn OLB/UNC
Prince Amukamara CB/Nebraska
Julio Jones WR/Alabama

Fan Favorites:
Cameron Jordan DE/California
Gabe Carimi OT/Wisconsin
Aldon Smith DE/Missouri
J.J. Watt DE/Wisconsin

Potential Reaches:
Mike Pouncey G/Florida
Cameron Heyward DE/Ohio State
Muhammad Wilkerson DT/Temple

28th Overall Selection

Guys To See Fall:
Anthony Castonzo OT/Boston College
Jimmy Smith CB/Colorado
Mike Pouncey G/Florida

Fan Favorite Picks:
Cameron Heyward DE/Ohio State
Muhammad Wilkerson DT/Temple
Mark Ingram RB/Alabama (Draft Analysts, more-so than fans)

Potential Reaches:
Danny Watkins G/Baylor
Brooks Reed OLB/Arizona
Jabaal Sheard DE/Pittsburgh

Other Players To Keep On the Radar

RB:
Jordan Toddman (early 3rd)
Alex Green (5th Rnd)
Derick Locke (4th Rnd)

WR:
Leonard Hankerson (Late Second)
Randall Cobb (2nd)
Edmund Gates (3rd)
Cecil Shorts III (Early 4th)
Titus Young (Early 3rd)
Tandon Doss (Late 3rd)
Austin Pettis (5th)

OT:
Marcus Gilbert (2nd)
Will Rackley (2nd)

OG:
Ben Ijalana (2nd)
Rodney Hudson (2nd)
John Moffit (4th)

C:
Jake Kirkpatrick (4th)
Brandon Fusco (5th)
Kris O'dowd (4th)

DE:
Allen Bailey (2nd-3rd) - I really have a gut feeling about him
Christian Ballard (3rd)
Jeremy Beal (4th-5th)

NT:
Phil Taylor (Early 2nd)
Kenric Ellis (2nd-4th)

OLB:
Sam Acho (2nd)
Greg Romeus (3rd-4th)
Mark Herzlich (4th)
Chris Carter (3rd) - Mentored by Willie Mcginest

CB:
Davon House (2nd-3rd)
Ras-I Dowling (2nd)
Brandon Burton (4th)
Chykie Brown (6th)

S:
Jaiquawn Jarrett (3rd)
Quinton Carter (2nd-3rd)

Also A list of where we pick:

Round 1 - 17th overall
Round 1 - 28th overall
Round 2 - 33rd overall
Round 2 - 60th overall
Round 3 - 74th overall
Round 3 - 92nd overall
Round 4 - 125th overall
Round 5 - 159th overall
Round 6 - 193rd overall

[Eja117]

This is me but I think they badly need help on the O-Line. Thing is the only O lineman the team ever drafted in the first was Logan Mankins with the last pick in that round and he went to Pro Bowls.  But he's saying he's not playing here. The other starting guard retired. They have a decent backup who can start, but then who backs him up?  Their left tackle is getting very old, and so is their center, so to me they need impact guys.

The D-line really needs help too and it would help a young and improving secondary and those are guys you usually target in the 1rst and this is a D-lineman rich draft.

So I would expect to see some combo of these guys in the first two rounds assuming something surprising doesn't happen.


BUT

The Pats always make these left field picks you don't see coming.  I feel like the only guy that ever fell to them that they snatched was Wilfork.  So I don't know.

I expect trades because the Pats always do that.

They have the 1rst pick in the 2nd round and overnight between rounds teams will get itchy for their guy and a lot of calls will be made

[beantownboy171]

This is me but I think they badly need help on the O-Line. Thing is the only O lineman the team ever drafted in the first was Logan Mankins with the last pick in that round and he went to Pro Bowls.  But he's saying he's not playing here. The other starting guard retired. They have a decent backup who can start, but then who backs him up?  Their left tackle is getting very old, and so is their center, so to me they need impact guys.

The D-line really needs help too and it would help a young and improving secondary and those are guys you usually target in the 1rst and this is a D-lineman rich draft.

So I would expect to see some combo of these guys in the first two rounds assuming something surprising doesn't happen.


BUT

The Pats always make these left field picks you don't see coming.  I feel like the only guy that ever fell to them that they snatched was Wilfork.  So I don't know.

I expect trades because the Pats always do that.

They have the 1rst pick in the 2nd round and overnight between rounds teams will get itchy for their guy and a lot of calls will be made

My vision for the pats o-line is as follows:

Use #17 (Gabe Carimi) and #33 (Danny Watkins) on O-line. Their two of the most NFL ready lineman in the draft, who can plug in immediately and are known for their mean-streaks.

Use the money saved on Light, to wrap up Mankins.

Best case scenario:

Vollmer | Mankins | Koppen | Watkins | Carimi

Ideally, we would also grab a project center in the later rounds, like Brandon Fusco out of Slippery Rock.