CB Draft Finals: Q&A, Video, and Trash Talk Thread!

[Roy H.]

Chicago and Phoenix, please state how your team stacks up in relation to your opponent in the following areas:

1. Defense
-Dwight Howard is the reigning defensive MVP. CHicago has a 2x All-Defensive team member in LeBron, an elite post defender in Joakim Noah, good defenders in Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova, and excellent bench defenders in Tony Allen and Louis Amundson, both of which can play multiple positions. Phoenix has the DPOY, and I'm better defensively at every other position, and still pretty good at center.

2. Rebounding
-Same story, different qualification. Dwight Howard is the best rebounder in the league, but Joakim Noah isn't far behind. 13 RPG for Howard to 11 RPG for Noah; works out to be a 18.3 RP48 for Howard, 17.6 for Noah. Ilyasova gets 6.4 RPG in 23 minutes compared to Jamison's 8.4 RPG in 36.5 minutes. LeBron is the third best rebounding SF, Miller the best rebounding SG, and Brandon Jennings averages 3.4 RPG, compared to Baron Davis. Just like with the defensive question, Phoenix has the best individual, but I have the better team, and still pretty good at center.

3. Ball movement
-Hedo Turkoglu is a solid passer and Baron Davis is also a pretty solid PG. LeBron James is the best passing SF since Larry Bird. Brandon Jennings averages 6 assists per game, Baron averages 8. LeBron averages 8.6 assists per game, Turkoglu averages 4.1. Mike Miller is a pretty decent passer at the 2, Noah is a good passer from the 5 (better than Dwight), and Ersan Ilyasova is a good passer at the 4, but probably on par with Jamison. Chicago has the best passer and the better team.

4. Post play
-Phoenix wins here pretty handily. Both Jamison and Howard can score in the paint, while it is not a strength for Noah and Ilyasova is more perimeter oriented offensively. LeBron should do it more, but rarely uses his post game..not that he would need to here anyways.

5. Shooting
-Phoenix has some good shooters, but so does Chicago. Mike Miller was 2nd in the league in 3pt %, while John Salmons and Wes Matthews clock in at 38% each. Brandon Jennings for Chicago comes in next at 37% from deep, with Hedo Turkoglu right behind him. As a starter Ilyasova shoots 34.5% from 3, Jamison shoots 34.4%. LeBron James is the tie-breaker with 33%, because Baron Davis is pretty bad at 27% from 3.

As far as overall shooting goes, I think its a wash between the two teams. It will come down to who is better able to stop the other team from scoring.  

6. Clutch play
-I would have said LeBron before this years' playoffs. Now, I don't think either team really excels. Both teams superstars wilted this season in the playoffs, so really does it even matter? Which one legged man is the best tap-dancer?

7. Leadership
-I really like Chicago here, and I know people are going to disagree with me, but let me outline one of the big reasons for "the trade" that made a lot of sense to me.

LeBron has proven that he can take being the center of attention as the best player on a team, and he has proven he can inspire loyalty from his teammates. One thing he hasn't shown an ability to do is pick his team up when they are down.

Joakim Noah was the emotional leader on the 2005 and 2006 Florida Gators NCAA champions. He refuses to accept losing, and won't give up even when faced with opposing odds. He's got a bigger than life personality to go with his 7ft frame (and 8ft hair) and he's not scared to tell his teammates if he thinks they're messing him. That includes LeBron James.

Brandon Jennings is a self-made man. He went overseas instead of college. He was drafted later in the lottery than he thought he deserved. The best player on his team was injured, and he managed to lead them to a 5-2 record to close out the season (passing Charlotte for the 5th overall seed), and led the team that pushed the 3 seed Atlanta Hawks to a 7 game series. Brandon Jennings might be a rookie this year, but next year he'll be a sophomore, and this kid is a leader.

8. Depth
Amundson is better than anyone on Phoenix's bigs rotation. Tony Allen is a better defender than anyone on Phoenix's team besides Dwight Howard. John Salmons is a very good scorer.

Big TPs for this post.

[StartOrien]

Phoenix, is it fair to say that the times he's lost in the playoffs, Lebron has had a significantly better (and physically stronger) player on him than John Salmons?  In the 2009 playoffs, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen (neither of whom are on Lebron's level) had some big games when Salmons was helping defend them.  Won't Lebron have even more success?

No, it isn't fair. In 2009 when he lost to the Dwight Howard led Orlando Magic there was no "Pierce-type." Check out the statline of that 09 series, its next to impossible for him to reach the same to more success. Someone else has to help, and the Bulls don't have enough help.

To be clear, I was saying that Pierce was one of the guys who had good numbers against Salmons, not that a Pierce-like player needed to defend Lebron.

In '09, I think Pietrus matched up on Lebron a lot.  He's a better defender and physically stronger than Salmons, isn't he?

And again, Lebron James lost to Dwight Howard's Magic in 6 games when he averaged 38.5 points per game! I'm not setting the bar this low for my defensive squad, but he can't do it himself. ESPECIALLY against Dwight Howard.

In fairness to Lebron, he lost Game 1 by one point, because he got 5 points combined from his entire bench.

He lost Game 4 by one point because his bench was weak, and because Alston went off for 26 points.

Are those things you can count on happening against IP?  He lost two games by one point each to an Orlando squad that is better than your Phoenix team.  Will that be replicated?

How is that Orlando team better than mine?

Davis > Alston
Lee = Matthews
Turkoglu
Jamison < Lewis
Howard

Salmons > Pietrus, Davis/Monroe = Gortat/Battie, Fernandez & Terrence Williams > Anthony Johnson

I think Turkoglu has declined a lot, and while B. Diddy in general is better than Alston, Alston had some big games in that playoff run and is a better outside shooter.  Gortat is a better defensive player than anybody you have on your bench, and I like the Pietrus/Reddick off the bench more than your guys.

Most importantly, though, the '09 Orlando team had a better team defense and better shooting.  Individual talents don't matter as much compared to the team as a whole.

As I talked about before, I think Turkoglu's per 36 stats support more of a bad system than a decline.

Gortat couldn't have been that great defensivly, he was playing 11 minutes a game (to Tony Battie's 4).

Reddick/Pietrus vs. Fernandez/T-Will IMO is probably a wash, but I'd def take the latter, though I'm probably in the minority on that issue.

[indeedproceed]

Rashard Lewis 2 years ago was exponentially better of a pick and roll defender and help defender that Antawn Jamison was last season. He's also currently a better shooter.

Lewis is easily the better of the two.

And also, this point is pretty valid, and has never been addressed.

Orlando Magic had Michael Pietrus, who they played 30 mins a night to harass LeBron James.

Here are Michael Pietrus's minutes played in the Cleveland series in 09: 30, 17, 26, 40, 23, 35

Can you guess which ones were losses for Orlando?

Orlando didn't just "let" LeBron go off. They put one of the better talented and most physical perimeter defenders on him for 30 minutes a game. What would LeBron have done if Pietrus wasn't hassling him?

Then, there is also this point:

IP's Special, "Why Hedo Doesn't Work Pour Vous" Argument:

Hedo Turkoglu is completely dependent on having the ball in his hands to make a positive impact on the offensive end. Do not believe me? Let me show you.

Here is a graph showing Hedo's lifetime Usage in relation to FG%:



That one shows one year, 2005-2006, when Hedo had a good FG% but a (relatively..but still high) usage of 19.0.

Here is the graph without the outlier:



Lastly here is a graph showing Hedo's PER in relation to Usage:



When Baron Davis, Antawn Jamison, and/or John Salmons are on the floor, Hedo Turkoglu won't get the touches to impact the game. When Hedo isn't a playmaker, he's not an impact player.

Even when he is a playmaker, he's still only a slightly above average player, but that's not the point. Unless Hedo only sees time with a backcourt of Fernandez/Matthews, he's going to be an invisible man, and a liability on defense against LeBron.

StartOrien's team is in no way better than the 2009 Orlando Magic. Actually, they're substantially worse.

[Roy H.]

6. Clutch play
-I would have said LeBron before this years' playoffs. Now, I don't think either team really excels. Both teams superstars wilted this season in the playoffs, so really does it even matter? Which one legged man is the best tap-dancer?

I think you're probably selling Lebron short, "crushing failure as a leader" or not.

Lebron has won numerous playoff series as an underdog, and he took the 2008 Celtics to the brink of elimination, scoring 45 points on the road in a Game 7.  Against the 2009 Magic, he had about as good of a series as a player can have, including hitting clutch shots and buzzer-beaters.  During his playoff career, he's dug his team out of big holes, and has won big games on the road.

In the last two regular seasons, he's led the league -- by far -- in "clutch" and "super clutch" scoring, according to 82games.com.  When a game is on the line, Lebron has shown that he's consistently the best in the NBA.

Now, in 2010, Lebron had a couple of poor playoff games.  I don't think he quit, but I do think he was mentally and physically fatigued, and fed up with carrying his teammates.  He had an atrocious Game 5, but in Game 6, Lebron put up a stat line of 27/19/10, on the road against an elite defense.  

Is that really so unclutch?

[StartOrien]

I'll be honest IP, I have no idea what those graphs mean, but I dispute every bit of it.

[Who]

LeBron James should defend John Salmons whenever LeBron and M.Miller are on the wings together. When TA enters the game, he can take the assignment. LeBron can switch onto Hedo Turkoglu or one of the lesser wings.

I don't think Chicago can win without a big defensive performance from LeBron.

I don't think Salmons or Turkoglu are capable of being effective offensively against LeBron's defense / athleticism.

I think this is why I'd guess at the end of the day you'd see a decent amount of Salmons & Turkoglu. A lot of wing pick n rolls against whichever guy doesn't draw Lebron.

Chicago has one of the best pick and roll defenses in the league with Joakim Noah and Ersan Ilyasova.

Getting Turkoglu to be aggressive while playing alongside Dwight + Baron + Salmons and maybe even Jamison too ... is going to be a difficult task also. Hedo is very passive, that is why he didn't function in Toronto. He wouldn't demand the ball.

Just as difficult a task will be getting Jamison and Salmons to holster their shot attempts in order to force feed Turkoglu.

It's going to be hard to take advantage of this idea / plan. Some large unfavourable factors.

[indeedproceed]

Also, lets look at who actually assembled the better team.

Chicago: Best player LeBron James
Phoenix: Best player, Dwight Howard
Edge: LeBron

2nd best player:
Chicago: Joakim Noah
Phoenix: Baron Davis
Edge: Chicago

3rd Best Player:
Chicago: Brandon Jennings
Phoenix: John Salmons
Edge: Chicago

I've got the top 3 players in the series, the guys on my bench are either shooters or defenders, and the only guy I'm asking to play at all who would be considered a rookie was the starting center for the team that finished second at the FIBA National tournament and is 24 years old.

Phoenix doesn't have anything resembling an answer for my best player. They don't even have someone to slow him down. Meanwhile, I've got a very gifted defender at the position they are best at. I've got as good or better shooting than they do.

I feel like I'm talking to myself, but what in the world stops LeBron from just getting anywhere he wants on the court and making sure Dwight Howard sits for long stretches of the game because he's in foul trouble?

You guys think it was LeBron "going off" when he averaged 39 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists against Orlando? What do you think he's going to do when it is John Salmons or Wes Matthews guarding him? 60, 16 and 16?

[Who]

\

I don't think Chicago can win without a big defensive performance from LeBron.

I think a big defensive performance from Lebron is almost a given.  John Salmons isn't a consistent enough producer to make Lebron work all that hard, and Turkoglu is past his prime.  I think this is a fairly easy defensive matchup for Lebron, especially since he's handled much harder defensive assignments in the "real" playoffs.

I'm honestly expecting Lebron to outscore his opposing small forward by 20 to 25 points per night.  I'm just not sure if Lebron's teammates can keep Phoenix from making up that gap.

I don't think it's a difficult assignment for LeBron ... I just want to make sure that is one of his primary tasks.

I want to make sure nothing nutty happens -- like Mike Brown putting LeBron on Rafer and sticking a 6-3 combo guard on Hedo Turkoglu instead of giving LeBron the task of shutting Hedo down ... instead of paying attention to what Iggy did to Hedo + Orlando's offense in the first round when they played Phily.

--------------------------------------

LeBron needs to be defending John Salmons whenever he and Mike Miller are the wings.

Chicago cannot afford to have Salmons go off on Mike Miller. That is a series deciding matchup.

TA is a good matchup against Salmons. Decent on Hedo but TA doesn't have the size to bother Hedo's passing or to bother his shot off the pick and roll ... so better to put TA on Salmons and LeBron on Hedo when they are in the game together. Also, better to put TA on Salmons and M.Miller on Hedo when those two are in the game together.

Just keep Mike Miller away from John Salmons.

[indeedproceed]

\

I don't think Chicago can win without a big defensive performance from LeBron.

I think a big defensive performance from Lebron is almost a given.  John Salmons isn't a consistent enough producer to make Lebron work all that hard, and Turkoglu is past his prime.  I think this is a fairly easy defensive matchup for Lebron, especially since he's handled much harder defensive assignments in the "real" playoffs.

I'm honestly expecting Lebron to outscore his opposing small forward by 20 to 25 points per night.  I'm just not sure if Lebron's teammates can keep Phoenix from making up that gap.

I don't think it's a difficult assignment for LeBron ... I just want to make sure that is one of his primary tasks.

I want to make sure nothing nutty happens -- like Mike Brown putting LeBron on Rafer and sticking a 6-3 combo guard on Hedo Turkoglu instead of giving LeBron the task of shutting Hedo down ... instead of paying attention to what Iggy did to Hedo + Orlando's offense in the first round when they played Phily.

--------------------------------------

LeBron needs to be defending John Salmons whenever he and Mike Miller are the wings.

Chicago cannot afford to have Salmons go off on Mike Miller. That is a series deciding matchup.

TA is a good matchup against Salmons. Decent on Hedo but TA doesn't have the size to bother Hedo's passing or to bother his shot off the pick and roll ... so better to put TA on Salmons and LeBron on Hedo when they are in the game together. Also, better to put TA on Salmons and M.Miller on Hedo when those two are in the game together.

Just keep Mike Miller away from John Salmons.

That was my plan. Miller has the height to cover Hedo. Also, if Phoenix actually ever puts Hedo at the 4, Ersan should do very well against him.

[StartOrien]

Wish I could spend more time on this, but I have to be on the road at 5:30 and won't be at a computer until 9ish.

1. Defense

I'd call this slight advantage to Chicago. When it comes to significantlty above average defensive players you have Dwight Howard, Wesley Matthews, Lebron James, Brandon Jennings and Joakim Noah.

2. Rebounding

Very slight advantage Phoenix. Howard & Jamison exceed the advantage Lebron proceeds, we can outrebound every other position (though none of those other guys are huge rebounders).

3. Ball movement

Advantage Phoenix. Jennings & James are the only ones capabable of handling the ball. Jennings & Miller can both make really, really poor decisions when it comes to passing.

Davis, Salmons, Turkoglu, Williams and Fernandez can all handle the ball and are all less prone to making "awful" decisions.

4. Post play

Advantage Phoenix. Chicago doesn't have any capable of post players

5. Shooting

Advantage Phoenix. Ilyasova & Miller are the only consistent jump shooters on Chicago. We designed the team to be filled with shooters, and we definitely succeeded.

6. Clutch play, 7. Leadership

Slight advantage Phoenix. It would've gone to Chicago, but as IP said the Lebron-Celtics mystery kind of takes away from it.

Meanwhile we've got some pretty strong characters/leaders, despite no definitive go-to-guy we have strong guys who can hit the big shot in B-Diddy, Salmons, Turkoglu, and Howard.


8. Depth

Advantage Phoenix. Roy keeps pointing out that Cleveland lost to Orlando b/c Lebron couldn't get any help off the bench, who's getting the points off the bench for IP's Bulls?

[indeedproceed]

I'll be honest IP, I have no idea what those graphs mean, but I dispute every bit of it.

Usage is a statistic that calculates a guess on how many possessions a given player uses during a game. It accounts for pace and it is always done on a per 40 minute basis. Basically it says how much a player has the ball in his hands.



This is a graph with Usage on the bottom (x-axis) and FG% on the side (y-axis). It basically shows that aside from one outlier, which was 2005-2006 or Hedo's second year in Orlando, the fewer times Hedo touches the ball (ie, bringing the ball up, initiating the offense, dribbling, passing, etc...) the worse he shoots.

Here is the graph without the outlier:



This is a graph of the same thing, but without the 2005-2006 outlier



PER is a stat made up by John Hollinger which is an imperfect way of measuring a players' total effect on the game. Its basically a "how good all-around is this player?" stat. It has its problems but for this use, I think it is okay.

Here again it shows that as Hedo's usage goes down, so does his overall production. Basically without having the ball in his hands, hedo is half the player he could be (or was in Orlando..who knows what he could be anymore).

When Baron Davis, Antawn Jamison, and/or John Salmons are on the floor, Hedo Turkoglu won't get the touches to impact the game. When Hedo isn't a playmaker, he's not an impact player.

Even when he is a playmaker, he's still only a slightly above average player, but that's not the point. Unless Hedo only sees time with a backcourt of Fernandez/Matthews, he's going to be an invisible man, and a liability on defense against LeBron.

[StartOrien]

You guys think it was LeBron "going off" when he averaged 39 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists against Orlando? What do you think he's going to do when it is John Salmons or Wes Matthews guarding him? 60, 16 and 16?

With your offense, he'll need to.

[Roy H.]

Advantage Phoenix. Roy keeps pointing out that Cleveland lost to Orlando b/c Lebron couldn't get any help off the bench, who's getting the points off the bench for IP's Bulls?

Von Wafer should be able to at least contribute something, right?  His reputation is "instant offense".

Also, as much as I hate Tony Allen personally, he's generally okay at getting to the hoop and scoring a handful of points.

Btw, TPs for the extensive breakdown on the various categories.

[nickagneta]

Just think that the thinking that Lebron is going to have enough offense is seriously flawed and has been the whole playoffs.

Last year this board was under the impression that a team of

LeBron
Marc Gasol
Anderson Varejao
Jason Richardson
Aaron Afflalo
Kirk Hinrich
Ty Lawson
Jeff Foster
Joel Anthony
Trenton Hassell

and others wasn't good enough to get out of the second round of the playoffs.

This year, a year in which LeBron QUIT on his team in the playoffs and was knocked out of the playoffs one round earlier, in the CB Draft he is on a team surrounded by a seriously worse collection of players going up against a team that kind of mirrors the 2008-09 Magic and people are considering voting Chicago through to the championship simply because of Lebron not being able to be stopped?!?!?!

Maybe it's me but that makes zero sense.

Start Orien better hope for a large turnout like last year's voting otherwise the lower the vote total the better chance Chicago has of pulling this off.

[StartOrien]

Advantage Phoenix. Roy keeps pointing out that Cleveland lost to Orlando b/c Lebron couldn't get any help off the bench, who's getting the points off the bench for IP's Bulls?

Von Wafer should be able to at least contribute something, right?  His reputation is "instant offense".

Also, as much as I hate Tony Allen personally, he's generally okay at getting to the hoop and scoring a handful of points.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see it for Wafer.