CB Draft '10 Playoffs Western Conference Semi-Finals

[Donoghus]

For people who are finding this a tough series to decide on the court, I urge you to take a look at the coaching matchup and home court advantage.

Both lie in favor of the Utah Jazz.

[action781]

As for Phoenix/Denver, I apologize, I have read very little debating as I've been working all day.  Sorry!    But my feelings are pretty clear to me why I favor Phoenix. 

Howard on offense will physically wear down Duncan.  Howard can guard Duncan well without getting physically worn down.  When considering the point guard matchup, it really could go either way because of how bipolar B-Diddy can play.  But at the end of the series, combining the center and point guard matchups, I say at worst they are even, and at best advantage Phoenix. 

Then I look at the rest of the teams and think they both fairly evenly matched.  A lot of role players on both teams with the only guy I'd count on producing something considerable outside of the 4 mentioned above this series being Turkoglu.  I'd play Turk at the 4 occasionally.  Gibson can't guard him outside and is not a very serious threat to abuse Turk on the other end.  The next likely guys in the whole series to produce something considerable would be Jamison or Salmons IMO.  So advantage Phoenix here again.  I give them the series in 6 or less.

So far my vote is Utah and Phoenix

[Gainesville Celtic]

BDavis isn't a "defender" and If Westbrook could score 20ppg w/o a jumpshot vs LAL this year in the playoffs he can score 20ppg on Davis + Fernandez!);

Your central point is that b/c Westbrook could put up big numbers on Derek Fisher he should be able to do so against Baron Davis? B-Diddy isn't an elite defender, but he's leagues better than fish.

not my central point ...

 But If you watched the OKC/LAL series you know Kobe took Westbrook for large stretches the same way he did Rondo (with Fisher guarding the less offensively talented Sefolosha. ) and Westbrook still got 20+

that was my point -- that WB is talented enough to still get his points vs the likes of Kobe so he surely can vs Davis.

[Who]

The one thing I really like here for Sacramento is that their pick and roll defense isn't under attack. Calderon will do some damage against it but he isn't assertive enough to cause too much trouble.

Well two things, I like the matchups when their big guns are in the game vs Utah's too.

[action781]

Going with Utah and Phoenix

[Roy H.]

For people who are finding this a tough series to decide on the court, I urge you to take a look at the coaching matchup and home court advantage.

Both lie in favor of the Utah Jazz.

Too bad Greg Popovich can't play PG, and the fans can't fill in your bench.

Seriously, I think most people think that the starting lineups, 2 through 5, are pretty even (and that presumes a healthy Yao).  Sacramento has a big advantage at the 1, and a huge advantage off the bench.  Depth matters, and so does PG play.

[Who]

For people who are finding this a tough series to decide on the court, I urge you to take a look at the coaching matchup and home court advantage.

Both lie in favor of the Utah Jazz.

Too bad Greg Popovich can't play PG, and the fans can't fill in your bench.

Seriously, I think most people think that the starting lineups, 2 through 5, are pretty even (and that presumes a healthy Yao).  Sacramento has a big advantage at the 1, and a huge advantage off the bench.  Depth matters, and so does PG play.

Are you starting Zach Randolph?

[Donoghus]

For people who are finding this a tough series to decide on the court, I urge you to take a look at the coaching matchup and home court advantage.

Both lie in favor of the Utah Jazz.

Too bad Greg Popovich can't play PG, and the fans can't fill in your bench.

Seriously, I think most people think that the starting lineups, 2 through 5, are pretty even (and that presumes a healthy Yao).  Sacramento has a big advantage at the 1, and a huge advantage off the bench.  Depth matters, and so does PG play.

I'd tend to disagree.  Especially on the claim that there is a "huge advantage" of the bench.  I think I got you in frontcourt depth.  Robin Lopez & Luc Mbah a Moute are no slouches and you're conveniently overlooking that while hammering me on the backup PG situation.  Backcourt advantage I'll concede.  Frontcourt?  No way.

[StartOrien]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4UtbrbsrjY&ob=av2e

a vote for the gorillaz is a vote for good music.

[Roy H.]

So, at the moment, I plan to vote Utah.  I haven't read the whole thread (the first page had a lot), but these are my reasons why.  They are mostly, unfortunately, critiques on Roy's arguments.

Also, this is a series where Rashard Lewis will be playing some power forward.  Rashard played very good defense on Pau during the 2009 NBA Finals, and exploded in a couple of games offensively.

Also, drawing Gasol out of the paint opens up things even further for Rose to drive inside.  A hobbled Yao just can't defend the paint by himself any more.  Rose / Boozer would kill him with the pick-and-roll.

I think it sounded brilliant originally to play Lewis as much as possible at PF.  Instead of pulling Gasol out to the 3 point line though, I think it actually puts Yao on the bench.  You said yourself Yao can't last, so why wouldn't Utah give him needed rest at these times, put Gasol on Sacramento's psuedo-center, and throw Mbah a Moute on Lewis: Advantage Utah here.  But, you can exploit this Randolph/Gasol matchup you've been praising while giving your deep 3 position deserved minutes, but it unfortunately puts your best player on the bench:  Advantage I think Sac.  I actually am completely torn on who this situation benefits overall.

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Why the Kings win:

"Offense sells tickets, Defense wins games, Rebounding wins championships." - Pat Summit

You just quoted a women's college basketball coach here as to why the Kings would win a men's professional basketball league.  I like playful jokes in this contest, but I got the feeling you were actually using this as serious.  Correct me if I'm wrong!  If you were serious though, it's just completely moot to me.

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Green is going to have to play, at minimum, 18, and probably closer to 23.  That's a HUGE advantage for the Kings.

I don't see why at all.  Calderon played 30 and 34 mpg the two previous seasons and his minutes were reduced this year because the Raptors had a very viable option as a backup pg.  With a lesser option at pg in Utah, I say Calderon plays 30-34 minutes without much question.

And in 6 career matchups, Rose has done all BUT dominate Calderon!  

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=caldejo01&p2=rosede01

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Once you get past the fact that the Yao/Gasol vs. Boozer/Randolph battle has actually favored Boozer/Randolph, there's no way that Utah can win.

So, when I started reading this and saw your previous stats, I thought... "interesting".  Then I realized, "wait, gasol kinda owned boozer in the '10 playoffs"  and "wait, why can't yao guard randolph? i feel like he'd do a phenominal job on him"  If I ran Utah, I'd switch up these matchups... Roy doesn't get to pick my matchups for me!!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=boozeca01&p2=gasolpa01

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=randoza01&p2=mingya01

Turns out that Boozer and Gasol have played eachother almost dead even statistically over their 15 game careers (with Gasol a 10-5 record and not often on the better team) [edit: and also recently outplaying him in '10 playoffs].  Yao has actually dominated Randolph.  The ppg, fg%, and blocks per game tell me a lot about how this matchup will play out when they play eachother and it's heavily in Yao's favor.

Some points, in order:

1.  If people want to argue that Utah is a stronger team with Yao on the bench, they can be my guest.  Utah without Yao is a borderline playoff team.

2.  It's a playful quote, but it surprises me that any Celtics fan could underrate rebounding, after it was pretty much the sole reason we just lost the championship.

3.  If you think Jose Calderon and Willie Green can consistently contain Derrick Rose, I don't know what to tell you.  This kid torched Rajon Rondo in the playoffs.  He's not too worried about Jose Calderon.  Also, Calderon has battled numerous injuries since he was playing 34 minutes a game, and he's been benched in Toronto.

4.  It's funny that you think Yao "dominated" Randolph, when there's a 2.5 ppg disparity.  Randolph also outrebounded Yao by a healthy margin.  The most relevant point, though, is that Randolph was never asked to guard Yao, unlike in the Yao/Boozer and Gasol/Randolph matchups.  In other words, your stats are irrelevant.

4a.  Those stats were for a pre-injury Yao; he's coming off two surgeries and a missed season since then.

I appreciate the comments, but honestly, I have a hard time taking an argument seriously that minimizes the difference between Rose and Calderon.  Even using your projections, if Pau and Boozer cancel each other out, and Yao slightly outscores Randolph but gets outrebounded him, that will be a huge win for Sacramento.  If the front courts play evenly, Sacramento wins this series in a rout.

[Roy H.]

For people who are finding this a tough series to decide on the court, I urge you to take a look at the coaching matchup and home court advantage.

Both lie in favor of the Utah Jazz.

Too bad Greg Popovich can't play PG, and the fans can't fill in your bench.

Seriously, I think most people think that the starting lineups, 2 through 5, are pretty even (and that presumes a healthy Yao).  Sacramento has a big advantage at the 1, and a huge advantage off the bench.  Depth matters, and so does PG play.

Are you starting Zach Randolph?

Yep.  That takes away a small part of my bench advantage up front, but the fact that Utah doesn't have a backup PG or a backup SG really kills them.  Plus, Sacramento doesn't have to rely on its bench as much; unlike Utah, our players aren't limited to playing 28 - 30 minutes per night, like Yao and Calderon.

[Donoghus]

For people who are finding this a tough series to decide on the court, I urge you to take a look at the coaching matchup and home court advantage.

Both lie in favor of the Utah Jazz.

Too bad Greg Popovich can't play PG, and the fans can't fill in your bench.

Seriously, I think most people think that the starting lineups, 2 through 5, are pretty even (and that presumes a healthy Yao).  Sacramento has a big advantage at the 1, and a huge advantage off the bench.  Depth matters, and so does PG play.

Are you starting Zach Randolph?

Yep.  That takes away a small part of my bench advantage up front, but the fact that Utah doesn't have a backup PG or a backup SG really kills them.  Plus, Sacramento doesn't have to rely on its bench as much; unlike Utah, our players aren't limited to playing 28 - 30 minutes per night, like Yao and Calderon.

Last I checked, I actually do have a depth chart and do have players like Green, Johnson, and Gallinari who can put in minutes in the backcourt.  I have no problem putting Johnson at the 2 for and sliding Casspi to the 3 if need be. Or put Mbah a Moute at the 3 alongside Johnson out there. Gallinari has put minutes in at the 2 position.  Albeit, it would be limited but he does have the capability to play there. 

Shockingly, "no backup PG or SG" is another exaggeration. 

[Roy H.]

For people who are finding this a tough series to decide on the court, I urge you to take a look at the coaching matchup and home court advantage.

Both lie in favor of the Utah Jazz.

Too bad Greg Popovich can't play PG, and the fans can't fill in your bench.

Seriously, I think most people think that the starting lineups, 2 through 5, are pretty even (and that presumes a healthy Yao).  Sacramento has a big advantage at the 1, and a huge advantage off the bench.  Depth matters, and so does PG play.

Are you starting Zach Randolph?

Yep.  That takes away a small part of my bench advantage up front, but the fact that Utah doesn't have a backup PG or a backup SG really kills them.  Plus, Sacramento doesn't have to rely on its bench as much; unlike Utah, our players aren't limited to playing 28 - 30 minutes per night, like Yao and Calderon.

Last I checked, I actually do have a depth chart and do have players like Green, Johnson, and Gallinari who can put in minutes in the backcourt.  I have no problem putting Johnson at the 2 for and sliding Casspi to the 3 if need be. Or put Mbah a Moute at the 3 alongside Johnson out there. Gallinari has put minutes in at the 2 position.  Albeit, it would be limited but he does have the capability to play there.  

Shockingly, "no backup PG or SG" is another exaggeration.  

Willie Green isn't a PG.  He's also a terrible player.  I watched him play in Philly for years; he's atrocious.  Honestly, I'm surprised he was drafted, and I'm shocked to see him playing a huge role on a playoff team's rotation.  But like I said, you don't have a backup PG. 

Gallinari isn't a SG.  He's a SF/PF, who you've decided to play at SG part time.  You're the one who listed him as your backup SG, not me.  I'm just working on the assumptions that you've laid out there.

[Who]

I'm not sure who to vote for in the West. I have both series going seven games with very little to choose between either side(s).

[Donoghus]

I'm not sure who to vote for in the West. I have both series going seven games with very little to choose between either side(s).

If its that tight, I suggest taking a look at coaching and home court.