CB Draft '10 Playoffs Western Conference Semi-Finals

[Donoghus]

I'm pretty surprised at the Gasol/Randolph numbers.

Well, I'm glad you're staying open-minded.

Here's the thing about Pau Gasol:  his entire career, he was regarded as a terrible defender.  He was a very poor defender against the Celtics in the 2008 playoffs.  The Lakers had terrible pick-and-roll defense this season, due largely to Gasol.

However, because Gasol helped shut down a hobbled KG in the Finals, people think he's an elite defender.  He's not, and never has been.  He's a great offensive player, but defensively, he's around average for a big man.  Thus, it's no surprise that an elite PF like Randolph has absolutely owned him.

"Elite" PFs don't bounce around from organiztion to organization.  Randolph is a very solid basketball player but I think we're kidding ourselves if we start labeling him as "elite".

He was the 3rd leading rebounder in the entire NBA, and was 4th among PFs in scoring.  You don't consider that "elite"?

I'm not going to get into the whole semantics battle.  We already saw that go down earlier this draft.

Randolph has more years in the league than playoff games played.  9 years v. 8 playoff games.

And he only started 4 of those games.  He hasn't sniffed the playoffs since '02-03.  I don't think thats purely by coincidence.

To me, you need to have some sort of track record in the postseason before I'm throwing the "Elite" label out here.  A 7 year drought and single digit playoff games played doesn't do it for me, sorry.

I hope playoff games aren't the be all and end all, because I'm not sure that Yao's proven ability to lose in the first round, or Gallinari's / Casspi's / Calderon's ability to never make the playoffs is really a point in your favor.

Outside of Gasol, your starting lineup has been out of the first round exactly once.  Are Yao's 28 career playoff games really anything to write home about? 

You know very well I was responding throwing around the word "elite" in applying to Randoloph.  Try not to twist it, will you?

[Roy H.]

We're hearing a lot of stuff like "Yao must be healthy because people have faith in my team" and "Zach Randolph isn't really elite, despite his elite numbers".

What we're not hearing is how on earth Utah is going to contain Derrick Rose, or how Utah can hope to win without a backup PG or SG.

[Roy H.]

I'm pretty surprised at the Gasol/Randolph numbers.

Well, I'm glad you're staying open-minded.

Here's the thing about Pau Gasol:  his entire career, he was regarded as a terrible defender.  He was a very poor defender against the Celtics in the 2008 playoffs.  The Lakers had terrible pick-and-roll defense this season, due largely to Gasol.

However, because Gasol helped shut down a hobbled KG in the Finals, people think he's an elite defender.  He's not, and never has been.  He's a great offensive player, but defensively, he's around average for a big man.  Thus, it's no surprise that an elite PF like Randolph has absolutely owned him.

"Elite" PFs don't bounce around from organiztion to organization.  Randolph is a very solid basketball player but I think we're kidding ourselves if we start labeling him as "elite".

He was the 3rd leading rebounder in the entire NBA, and was 4th among PFs in scoring.  You don't consider that "elite"?

I'm not going to get into the whole semantics battle.  We already saw that go down earlier this draft.

Randolph has more years in the league than playoff games played.  9 years v. 8 playoff games.

And he only started 4 of those games.  He hasn't sniffed the playoffs since '02-03.  I don't think thats purely by coincidence.

To me, you need to have some sort of track record in the postseason before I'm throwing the "Elite" label out here.  A 7 year drought and single digit playoff games played doesn't do it for me, sorry.

I hope playoff games aren't the be all and end all, because I'm not sure that Yao's proven ability to lose in the first round, or Gallinari's / Casspi's / Calderon's ability to never make the playoffs is really a point in your favor.

Outside of Gasol, your starting lineup has been out of the first round exactly once.  Are Yao's 28 career playoff games really anything to write home about? 

You know very well I was responding throwing around the word "elite" in applying to Randoloph.  Try not to twist it, will you?

What's the label matter?  If Randolph isn't elite, then obviously Yao isn't either.  If playoff experience is important, than 80% of your starting lineup and most of your bench is in serious, serious trouble.

[Who]

On Yao's health, I'll be giving him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise (on the court).

I expect Yao to have 2-4 good years left in him before he falls apart.

[Donoghus]

We're hearing a lot of stuff like "Yao must be healthy because people have faith in my team" and "Zach Randolph isn't really elite, despite his elite numbers".

What we're not hearing is how on earth Utah is going to contain Derrick Rose, or how Utah can hope to win without a backup PG or SG.

I believe I discussed the Rose/Calderon a few pages back.  Shockingly, I didn't see that matchup as lopsided as you've been pressing it.

[Roy H.]

On Yao's health, I'll be giving him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise (on the court).

I expect Yao to have 2-4 good years left in him before he falls apart.

When Yao's own team doesn't even have confidence that he can survive the regular season, how much benefit of the doubt does he deserve?  And what level of play do you expect him at?  2009 production?  Better?  Worse?

[Roy H.]

We're hearing a lot of stuff like "Yao must be healthy because people have faith in my team" and "Zach Randolph isn't really elite, despite his elite numbers".

What we're not hearing is how on earth Utah is going to contain Derrick Rose, or how Utah can hope to win without a backup PG or SG.

I believe I discussed the Rose/Calderon a few pages back.  Shockingly, I didn't see that matchup as lopsided as you've been pressing it.

How many minutes is Calderon playing?

How do you like the Rose vs. Willie Green matchup?

Who initiates your offense when Calderon is on the bench?

What present point guards in the NBA do you think are worse defenders than Calderon?

[Who]

We're hearing a lot of stuff like "Yao must be healthy because people have faith in my team" and "Zach Randolph isn't really elite, despite his elite numbers".

What we're not hearing is how on earth Utah is going to contain Derrick Rose, or how Utah can hope to win without a backup PG or SG.

I believe I discussed the Rose/Calderon a few pages back.  Shockingly, I didn't see that matchup as lopsided as you've been pressing it.

Jose Calderon has fared very well against Derrick Rose over the past two seasons. The Raptors have beat up on the Bulls (who had the superior team both years) with regularity.

Derrick Rose does have the matchup advantage -- because there is no way Calderon can contain his quickness -- but is not a lopsided as one would imagine.

Calderon's freakish offensive efficiency and intelligence as a floor general negates a lot of Rose's talents.

[Donoghus]

On Yao's health, I'll be giving him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise (on the court).

I expect Yao to have 2-4 good years left in him before he falls apart.

When Yao's own team doesn't even have confidence that he can survive the regular season, how much benefit of the doubt does he deserve?  And what level of play do you expect him at?  2009 production?  Better?  Worse?

They said they're easing him back.  I have no fault with what the organization is doing.

Saying that its a "lack of confidence" is just plain wrong.  They're exerting caution.  You'd hope an organization would do that. 

[Donoghus]

We're hearing a lot of stuff like "Yao must be healthy because people have faith in my team" and "Zach Randolph isn't really elite, despite his elite numbers".

What we're not hearing is how on earth Utah is going to contain Derrick Rose, or how Utah can hope to win without a backup PG or SG.

I believe I discussed the Rose/Calderon a few pages back.  Shockingly, I didn't see that matchup as lopsided as you've been pressing it.

Jose Calderon has fared very well against Derrick Rose over the past two seasons. The Raptors have beat up on the Bulls (who had the superior team both years) with regularity.

Derrick Rose does have the matchup advantage -- because there is no way Calderon can contain his quickness -- but is not a lopsided as one would imagine.

Calderon's freakish offensive efficiency and intelligence as a floor general negates a lot of Rose's talents.

Thank you.  I hope people see that Calderon's offensive capabilities as a point guard doesn't make things lopsided.

[Who]

On Yao's health, I'll be giving him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise (on the court).

I expect Yao to have 2-4 good years left in him before he falls apart.

When Yao's own team doesn't even have confidence that he can survive the regular season, how much benefit of the doubt does he deserve?  And what level of play do you expect him at?  2009 production?  Better?  Worse?

Until proven otherwise ... I'm going to go with 2008/09 performance level.

I do not expect Yao to start the season at that level but he may finish the year there.

[Roy H.]

On Yao's health, I'll be giving him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise (on the court).

I expect Yao to have 2-4 good years left in him before he falls apart.

When Yao's own team doesn't even have confidence that he can survive the regular season, how much benefit of the doubt does he deserve?  And what level of play do you expect him at?  2009 production?  Better?  Worse?

They said they're easing him back.  I have no fault with what the organization is doing.

Saying that its a "lack of confidence" is just plain wrong.  They're exerting caution.  You'd hope an organization would do that.  

It was the "we hope to get him through April" vibe that concerned me.  

If they were confident in Yao, they'd be pursuing your strategy:  start him slow, build his minutes gradually, and have him ready to go full strength in the playoffs.  Instead, Houston said "we have no confidence that he can survive the regular season, so 24 minutes is it, period."

That said, Yao's health is not the only factor here.  Hobbled or not, Boozer has beat him up.  Randolph has beat up Gasol.  Our wings are on par with one another.

That makes the deciding factors the PGs and the bench.  Sacramento easily wins both areas.

[Who]

We're hearing a lot of stuff like "Yao must be healthy because people have faith in my team" and "Zach Randolph isn't really elite, despite his elite numbers".

What we're not hearing is how on earth Utah is going to contain Derrick Rose, or how Utah can hope to win without a backup PG or SG.

I believe I discussed the Rose/Calderon a few pages back.  Shockingly, I didn't see that matchup as lopsided as you've been pressing it.

How many minutes is Calderon playing?

How do you like the Rose vs. Willie Green matchup?

Who initiates your offense when Calderon is on the bench?

What present point guards in the NBA do you think are worse defenders than Calderon?

I think Calderon burns out when he plays more than 30-32 on a consistent basis.

So, Willie Green would have to play Derrick Rose for about 10 minutes and 6-8 minutes against Teague.

A team can run their offense through the low post without a playmaking PG just fine. Especially with post players like Pau and Yao.

[Who]

On Yao's health, I'll be giving him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise (on the court).

I expect Yao to have 2-4 good years left in him before he falls apart.

When Yao's own team doesn't even have confidence that he can survive the regular season, how much benefit of the doubt does he deserve?  And what level of play do you expect him at?  2009 production?  Better?  Worse?

They said they're easing him back.  I have no fault with what the organization is doing.

Saying that its a "lack of confidence" is just plain wrong.  They're exerting caution.  You'd hope an organization would do that. 

It was the "we hope to get him through April" vibe that concerned me. 

If they were confident in Yao, they'd be pursuing your strategy:  start him slow, build his minutes gradually, and have him ready to go full strength in the playoffs.  Instead, Houston said "we have no confidence that he can survive the regular season, so 24 minutes is it, period."

It is a bad report but I don't know how accurate it is. Is it just Houston's staff being overly negative / pessimistic / conservative / downplaying expectations?

I want to see it for myself before I write Yao off.

[StartOrien]

On Yao's health, I'll be giving him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise (on the court).

I expect Yao to have 2-4 good years left in him before he falls apart.

When Yao's own team doesn't even have confidence that he can survive the regular season, how much benefit of the doubt does he deserve?  And what level of play do you expect him at?  2009 production?  Better?  Worse?

Until proven otherwise ... I'm going to go with 2008/09 performance level.

I do not expect Yao to start the season at that level but he may finish the year there.

Isn't this backwards though? He missed an entire season. In the three seasons leading up  to the 08/09 season (where he played in 77 ) he played in 55, 48, 57 games. Given that track record mixed with his his massive size, don't you think he'd have to prove healthy as opposed to the other way around?